Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

This is a picture of offensive actions Russia has taken around Avdeevka yesterday. Not every action was successful but a good portion were.

I post this picture to make a point. This war has entered a new state. I think it is still primarily a war of attrition, but there are more frequent attacks by Russia and Russia is taking more territory. Previously Russia would do slow attacks that would form a cauldron and set up the Ukrainians to take large casualties from artillery. It seems like Russia is engaging in general advances instead where they put pressure across an entire line. Russia still seems to be surrounding cities on multiple sides though, but there has been a definite change in how Russia attacks. This has likely been going on for at least a couple weeks but it has been going on long enough to say Russia is definitively being more aggressive.

Russia likely smells blood in the water and is moving to take advantage of that, but they are still being a little cautious as they should to not take too many losses and make sure they have the ability to sustain offensive action.
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Krasnogorovka got hit by a FAB-1500 which is 3 times bigger than the Fab-500.
 

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Fapcop said:
Air, artillery and drones are a real problem for fast advances.

The Russian army has a really impressive cover of S400, radars anti EW devices and their smaller tactical SAM vehicles.
They basically own the airspace over the front.

But as soon as you advance too far ahead of that cover, that’s when you become vulnerable to ATACMs and drones.

Not over extending your lines is critical.

We saw what happened in 2022 when they did with the retreat from Kherson etc.

(Even if the Ukrop army isn’t what it was a year or a year and a half ago.)
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Correct. Only little FPV drones can work on the Frontlines as larger stuff gets shot down quickly.

However.... Just now, it's alleged that Russia just lost another A-50 AWACS over the Sea of Azov..... Source is Clash Report aka Turkish propoganda but they broke it

That is BAD

 
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Fapcop said:
But as soon as you advance too far ahead of that cover, that’s when you become vulnerable to ATACMs and drones.

Not over extending your lines is critical.
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That also goes for artillery cover. One of the big problems Ukraine eventually had at avdiivka was that the flank attacks by the Russians forced them to move nearly all of their artillery way back behind the city. Back far enough that the eastern side of avdiivka was beyond cover and unprotected in many ways.

The other issue with cover is that it makes deep advances through the line on a narrow front difficult to impossible. The Ukrainians seemed to run into this problem in the Robotyne area during the 2023 offensive. Trying to conduct a deep offensive in a narrow corridor means you are under the enemy's cover often on three sides.

Alot of the positional warfare in fields the Russian do along the overall front seems to be about pushing back the cover of the other side and bringing a target like a city more into their cover.
 
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Hey bros, remember when the Brits embarrassed themselves by means of a failed Trident missile launch? Well, this isn't entirely their fault.

Bohdan Gnatyuk: Ukrainian scientist who created the American three-stage ballistic missile Trident​

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​

https://ukrainetoday.org/bohdan-gna...hree-stage-ballistic-missile-trident-trident/
https://archive.ph/acgdn

Bogdan-Taras Gnatyuk was born on July 25, 1915 in the picturesque town of Zaleshchyky, which today is located in the Chertkovsky district of the Ternopil region, and during the scientist’s childhood and youth was part of the Kingdom of Galicia and Vladimir...

...Despite the fact that Bohdan Hnatyuk was abroad most of his life, he remained a patriot of Ukraine. He was a member of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, which he and his younger brother Miroslav-Vladimir joined while still studying at the seminary...
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Guess when someone told them "just get a nazi scientist to build it" they didn't specify they had to get a German. So instead of a Wernher they got a Bogdan-Taras.
 
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Falcos_Commisar said:
However.... Just now, it's alleged that Russia just lost another A-50 AWACS over the Sea of Azov..... Source is Clash Report aka Turkish propoganda but they broke it

That is BAD
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The first A-50 that was allegedly shot down was almost certainly never shot down.

In regards to this case there is a lot of conflicting information which is unusual. Usually when something like this happens everyone says the same thing basically. I suspect the story of an A-50 being shot down is false, but there are videos of something having been shot down. It wouldn't make sense based on its location and the size of the burning wreckage for it to be an A-50.

I am waiting to see after the storm of chatter calms down. More details will be found and things will become clearer.

Video of the shooting down of something.


 
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HOMO FOR LIFE RETURNS said:
I think the west is either setting up the narrative for "why Ukraine collapsed" or "why we need to gib more money" because all I am seeing on news is "omg Ukraine short of everything."
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I wouldn't put too much faith in it. We've been seeing "Russia is running out of everything in 2 weeks" and "Ukraine is running out of everything and winning hard, send more" for two years at this point.
 
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Falcos_Commisar said:
it's alleged that Russia just lost another A-50 AWACS over the Sea of Azov
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Napoleon III said:
I am waiting to see after the storm of chatter calms down. More details will be found and things will become clearer.
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Two aircraft fell in the Kanevsky district of Kuban, a fire occurred on an area of 250 square meters, there was no threat to houses - TG channel of the operational headquarters of the Krasnodar Territory. The fire is currently being extinguished. 40 people and 14 pieces of equipment were involved. Law enforcement and special services are also on site. Il Russo TG/chat.

A group Geran-2s is on their way to Odessa.
 
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Useful_Mistake said:
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When i posted that this might be the plan i was hopping i was wrong.
Now its the official policy to just keep choking the meat grinder with bodies to avoid another round of bad press for Biden's coming election.
At this point its just nauseating how little the US congress values life
 
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Napoleon III said:
The first A-50 that was allegedly shot down was almost certainly never shot down.

In regards to this case there is a lot of conflicting information which is unusual. Usually when something like this happens everyone says the same thing basically. I suspect the story of an A-50 being shot down is false, but there are videos of something having been shot down. It wouldn't make sense based on its location and the size of the burning wreckage for it to be an A-50.

I am waiting to see after the storm of chatter calms down. More details will be found and things will become clearer.

Video of the shooting down of something.

View attachment 5749486
View attachment 5749487
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Uhh everyone confirmed that an A-50 was lost in January.

Now a second loss has been confirmed by Russian sources


Russia has lost about 20% of it's AWACS fleet in Q1 2024.....

I don't care if you think Russia can print these things, this is a big loss for the RuAF. They are extremely important for tracking incoming cruise missiles.

Russia isn't due for the first A-100 until about a year from now.
 
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Vesperus said:
I assume that will be moved up, they have a couple that aren't quite kitted out to spec but presumably can be wrangled into A-50s
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Possibly

Now for some good news on regards to the RuAF.

By most estimates, Russia has replaced every single jet loss in 2023 by January 2024....

Russian is starting to pump out Su-30/34/35s and other aircraft like crazy now.

Not to mention the Su-57


Edit: here is the correct video link. The other one is good but it's about missile production, not jets

 
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We just had a loss not to long ago with an Su-34 and Su-35, now this. if it was IFF again someone is going to get fired or it could have been Patriots with a longer-range modification they did not know about at 160kms. Now we are going to have to deal with more trolls these coming few months now believing the F-16s will be game changing after these fuckups.
 
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