Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

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Azov stole the EW monster tank and are now taking it apart to see how it works.

Azov explaining how they captured the EW Monster tank.

It took three nights to get the tank running, and when they were driving in the dark they fell into a KAB hole. The driver almost broke his nose and blacked out for a few seconds, but managed to get out of the hole and drive home. The Russian were also shelling them the whole time.
A Telegram post from Azov on the capture operation:
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The leaked recording of Russian General and State Duma deputy Andriy Gurulyov:

He has since denied any of this, calling it a deepfake:
 
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A new long thread points to considerable evidence that Russia may have burned through nearly all of its Soviet armor stockpiles.
Burned through what was still functional. Probably still large amounts of hulks and cannibalized bmps/tanks.

Fact theyre using cheapo chinese golf carts for battlefield movers is the surest sign they have. Also seeing videos now with 20+ dudes crammed onto a single piece of armor, almost certainly another sign of depleted armor inventory.
 
Has there been any official response from Kazakhstan? What's the local coverage over there saying? Is there any evidence confirming a buildup of Russian forces on the border? This story is strange.
Unless Putin has got some Haitian oungan to re-animate some of his dead fighters and similar magic to reanimate tanks left rusting in forests, or perhaps deploying old vehicles from museums and foreign tanks captured or used for research to the battlefield, I don't see that happening.


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In Rostov region of the Russian Federation, a pipeline used to pump petroleum products from a local oil depot to tankers in the area of the Azov Sea Port was blown up, the Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reported on Telegram.

“On the night of April 6, 2024, in the area of the village of Azov (Rostov region) as a result of the explosion of a pipeline that pumped petroleum products from a local oil depot to tankers in the area of the Azov Sea Port, the loading of tankers with petroleum products was suspended for an indefinite period,” the report says.

“The object was used by the aggressor state for military purposes, to support the waging of a genocidal war against Ukraine,” the department noted.
Interfax UA/archive

This might've been posted above, but I mostly post it again note that even if Zelensky had confirmed that Biden or maybe Jake Sullivan asked that Russian oil assets not be hit, that UA still hits them, as they should. The US hasn't proven to be that much of a reliable ally in recent months. Presumably the US facilitates aid by other channels, but that won't be enough. The aid needed is tiny relative to the US budget, but it needs to be provided, and the shills and perverts (Boebert now groping men in front of children while drunk or the missing link uggo MTG) in the House of Representatives cannot be allowed to foil the opportunity to chastise the Soviet Unions mong child Russia. Aid from other NATO states and Western Allies helps (like the shells Czechia is sourcing), plus crowd sourced aid, but Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons via the Minsk and Budapest Accords, the second of which binds if the US and NATO have any honor or sense.
 
What I've read of this plan suggests Trump plans to get on his small overloaded knees and grovel before Putin. Trump is now against the TikTok ban, so Xi can probably relax about whatever a Pres Trump would do, except Trump might use his kneepads again so he can grovel before Red China.
 
Every single time.

I no longer believe anonymous sources for any story.
While this story may be based on sweet Fanny Adams ie fake news but it does cohere with the decided hostility of Trump's ultta Congressional supporters and various indications from multiple sources that Trump is hostile to Ukraine defending itself with Western aid. Yet there's still so much doubtful here. The Ukrainians seem to be 'cross that bridge when/if it comes'.

OTD

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Thanks to the efficiency of modern Russia you can do both at the same time now.
Very much the case now. Kaganovich obviously realised how priest agents were the perfect means to cajole and gain confidences that no political officer in an military formation or state farm could ever get.

Oleksandr Pavliuk, Commander of Ukraine's Ground Forces, has urged Ukrainians to join the Armed Forces, as the country's fate is at stake, which means that no one can stay away.

Source: Pavliuk on Facebook

Quote: "The more Ukrainians find the courage to join the ranks of the Armed Forces, the less chances Russia will have to implement its bloodthirsty plans, and the sooner Ukrainian cities will resume their ordinary and safe life.

I therefore urge Ukrainians to leave emotions behind and not succumb to provocations. It is imperative to realise that no one can stay away. The fate of the country, the fate of our nation, is at stake."

Details: Pavliuk firmly believes that "Russia will not leave anyone alone: neither those who have hidden nor those who have betrayed Ukraine".

"Now is a historical moment that fate has given us: either we will defend and preserve the state, or we will disappear as a nation! Support the defenders with both word and deed. Join the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Stand up for your family, your home, your country, and your future. Our strength is in unity! There is no other option," the officer summed up.

He added that Ukraine's Armed Forces need various specialists: drivers, clerks, cooks, builders, IT specialists, accountants, doctors, and engineers.

Background:

  • On 7 February, the Ukrainian parliament passed the government's draft law on mobilisation on the first reading. Lawmakers submitted 4269 amendments to the document for the second reading.
  • The parliamentary committee members supported proposals to grant a draft postponement for postgraduate students of all forms of study and remove the provision on penalties for evading mobilisation from the draft law.
  • At the same time, lawmakers rejected amendments to the draft law on reservations for persons liable for military service who receive a certain salary and pay taxes.
  • On 29 March, the Parliamentary Committee on National Security, Defence and Intelligence had considered all 4,269 amendments submitted by MPs to the second reading of the draft law on mobilisation.
  • As of 6 April, the committee had not completed its consideration of the draft law on mobilisation, but the draft law could be submitted to the parliamentary hall for consideration as early as 10 April.
  • On 6 April, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged the parliament to pass the draft law on mobilisation in the coming days.
Ukrainska Pravda/archive
 
GUR damaged russian ship in the Kaliningrad
>On April 7, 2024, a missile ship "Serpukhov" was disabled by fire on the territory of the enemy's naval base in the city of Baltiysk, Kaliningrad region of Russia.
>The Serpukhov is a Russian vessel of the Buyan-M project 21631, launched by the aggressor state in 2015.
>The fire inside the missile ship completely destroyed its communications and automation equipment.
 
Chances that this will actually pan out? The follow up of these types of claims has been very slim lately.


the decided hostility of Trump's ultta Congressional supporters and various indications from multiple sources that Trump is hostile to Ukraine defending itself with Western aid
After lying about every aspect of the Ukraine War for so long, I imagine it also becomes awkward to pivot towards a rational approach to the question. They spent the last year or so screeching about how evil Ukrainians are, how all the weapons are stolen, how Ukraine has already lost and Russia can just end the war any time. It would be strange for them to suddenly cart out the actual facts and try to justify support on those grounds. I wonder which percentage of their audience would not notice the flip, and which percentage would start to send death threats for anti-Russian behaviour.
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Surely the Russian government will remember their being saved by the Americans, it's only the fourth or so time. One day it will stick.


A new long thread points to considerable evidence that Russia may have burned through nearly all of its Soviet armor stockpiles.
More accurate to say that some of the smaller storage facilities are emptying out. What effect that has on the war and when it will become noticeable is another question.


Here's another example of a clown car APC.

link

This BMP-2, along with the troops, broke through into the village. Soldiers from an attack UAV company stopped the vehicle using an FPV drone, killing four invaders at once. The infantry of the 26th Separate Rifle Battalion of the 47th Brigade gained the advantage and destroyed the rest of the enemy.

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Lots of people on this too, but these ones don't even get away from their vehicle.


Battle for Chasiv Yar
Analysis, Implications, Projection
[private}Undoubtedly, the battle for Chasiv Yar, located west of Bakhmut, is a litmus test for both sides. If Ukraine were to lose control of Chasiv Yar, it could have dire consequences as it would provide a direct route for the Russian army to advance towards key cities in Donbas, such as Kostyantynivka and Kramators'k. Russian forces are attempting to exploit any weaknesses in Ukrainian defenses, including manpower shortages and insufficient supplies of weapons and ammunition. Meanwhile, the Russian forces' inability to capture Chasiv Yar by summer will suggest serious problems within the Russian military. Despite their advantages in personnel numbers, vehicles, artillery, ammunition, and capabilities for close air support and long-range strikes, their failure to seize Chasiv Yar will raise serious doubts about their ability to successfully assault larger towns and cities like Kramatorsk, and Slovyansk.
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Additionally, our analysis has revealed some concerning signs during a recent assault by a mechanized unit against Ukrainian defenders in Chasiv Yar, indicating that the situation could rapidly deteriorate for Ukrainian troops. However, it's important to note that the situation is not hopeless for Ukrainian forces. With the right measures taken in time, the tide of the battle could potentially shift in Ukrainian favor. For a more comprehensive understanding of the situation, we encourage you to read our full report.

1. Setting the Stage

Chasiv Yar's geographical location makes it a good defensive position, effectively deterring Russian forces from launching attacks on key cities in Donbas. The potential loss of Chasiv Yar could result in frontline destabilization, as it would further extend the bulge formed in the Siversk area. Favorable geographical features in the area surrounding Chasiv Yar present an opportunity for the Ukrainian side to inflict serious losses on the enemy. By using the advantages offered by the terrain, Ukrainian forces can potentially seriously slow down or even completely stop advancing Russian forces, despite their multiple advantages.

a) Topography
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Chasiv Yar holds a favorable position over its surroundings, particularly in comparison to Bakhmut, the point from which Russian forces are advancing. The residential district known as Kanal, situated on the eastern side of the water channel, has multiple high-rise buildings, further providing existing advantages. An important caveat is that satellite analysis indicates that many of these buildings have already incurred damage.

The road connecting Chasiv Yar and Bakhmut has several bridges over the water channel. With the right approach and correctly allocated resources, Chasiv Yar could potentially be a very formidable obstacle to advancing Russian troops.

b) Shaping Enemy Movements
In total, there are three bridges over the canal. If Ukrainian troops decide to retreat from the Kanal district, these bridges will likely be destroyed, slowing down the Russian advances.
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While the canal itself may not be particularly deep in certain sections, it will be a serious obstacle for vehicle movement, forcing the enemy into an infantry-centric battle. The areas highlighted in orange do not have water channels, instead being separated by large pipes, as seen in the provided photo. After the destruction of bridges, Russian forces may likely attempt to advance through these areas, taking advantage of the cover provided by the surrounding forest and the absence of the water body.

2. Russian Forces and Their Targets

Traditionally, Russians deploy airborne forces in important areas of the frontline to exert pressure on Ukrainian troops. While the current state of Russian airborne units may not significantly differ from regular infantry, their overall readiness and mobility tend to be higher than other units. The assignment of multiple regiments from the 98th Guards Airborne Division and 11th Separate Air Assault Brigade to advance in the area confirms the importance of this particular direction for the Russian command.
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As mentioned earlier, the Kanal district stands at the forefront of the defense and is a key target for Russian assaults on Chasiv Yar, as demonstrated by the unsuccessful attempt by Russian forces to seize it on April 4th. That being said, the likelihood of eventual Russian advancement into the Kanal district remains high, especially considering the destructive power of KAB bombs, which erase residential buildings making defense of the area complicated. The deployment of better-motivated units, substantial vehicle numbers, and the employment of close air support by multiple SU-25 aircraft during the recent assault further confirm that Chasiv Yar is a primary target for Russian forces in the area. The ongoing efforts to pinpoint vulnerabilities in the defenses and exploit them will continue, with Russians likely to also attempt advances on the flanks. Recent pushes on Bohdanivka and Ivanivske by Russian airborne units suggest further intentions to advance on the flanks of Chasiv Yar, aiming to pave the way for envelopment if successful.

3. Discovered Problems

The recent assault by Russian troops led to the destruction of numerous vehicles and high casualties among assaulting troops, as evidenced by a video released by the 67th Brigade. However, despite the initial success, this recent assault has raised concerns, suggesting that the defense of Chasiv Yar could rapidly become challenging for the defenders.

a) Shortfall in Minefields
Frontelligence Insight reviewed multiple videos and satellite imagery to reconstruct the approximate route taken by the Russian armored column on the 4th of April.
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It is evident that the armored column successfully traveled on the dirt road to the town without encountering minefields. This raises significant concerns, as not only were the armored vehicles able to approach Chasiv Yar along the road, but they also entered the Kanal district without encountering mines. Considering this route as a major direction of attack, and with prior knowledge that Russian forces would likely advance in this area following the capture of Khromove, our team finds it unusual that the Russians were able to enter the town on their first major attempt. This indicates a potential vulnerability in the defenses.

b) Close Air Support Missions
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Another concerning indication is Russia's deployment of at least four SU-25 aircraft for Close Air Support missions, which operated close to Chasiv Yar. Such bold actions, coupled with the absence of downed aircraft in the area that day, underscore the gravity of the problem Ukrainian forces face with their air defenses. This not only highlights the deficiency in long-range air defense systems to counter threats like KAB bombs but also reveals shortcomings in Short-Range Air Defense (SHORAD) capabilities. It is likely that Russians will continue to exploit this vulnerability, further complicating the defense of Chasiv Yar for Ukrainian forces.

4. Summary

In summary, recent events in Chasiv Yar have highlighted both successes and vulnerabilities in Ukrainian defenses. While highly motivated brigades like the 67th were able to repel attacks from company-sized mechanized units despite facing enemy superiority in vehicle numbers, artillery, MLRS, and close air support, it is concerning that Russian forces were able to rapidly enter the town without encountering mine barriers or the long-term fortifications that officials had declared as formidable and well-prepared in the area.

In our team's assessment, the situation is difficult due to the accumulated effect of multiple problems. These include delays in initiating fortification construction, an inadequate number of personnel and units due to delayed mobilization efforts, and a lack of urgency in implementing necessary changes to the mobilization process. Additionally, there is a shortage of supplies from Western allies, particularly in artillery, long-range weaponry, and air defense systems. Furthermore, the training of personnel following the adoption of mobilization laws will require time, as Ukraine cannot afford to deploy undertrained soldiers to the frontline. Consequently, Russia is likely to maintain its advantage in manpower, air power, artillery, vehicles, and ammunition. While Chasiv Yar possesses significant defensive potential, effectively utilizing this potential may require additional attention and effort from the political and military leadership. The terrain alone is not enough to halt advancing Russian forces, heroism and skillfulness of defenders can't be the only pillar of defensive tactic, hence Ukraine needs to have a comprehensive defense approach that accounts for potential weaknesses and previous mistakes.[/private]
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Drone attack at the Russian occupied NPP in Ukraine
[...]
After receiving information from the ZNPP about the drone attacks, the IAEA experts stationed at the site went to three affected locations. They were able to confirm the physical impact of the drone detonations, including at one of the site’s six reactor buildings where surveillance and communication equipment appeared to have been targeted. While they were at the roof of the reactor, unit 6, Russian troops engaged what appeared to be an approaching drone. This was followed by an explosion near the reactor building.

The IAEA team reported that they observed remnants of drones at this and two other impact locations at the site. At one of them, outside a laboratory, they saw blood stains next to a damaged military logistics vehicle, indicating at least one casualty.

The experts reported hearing explosions and rifle fire on the site throughout the day. Additionally, the IAEA team heard several rounds of outgoing artillery fire from near the plant.

While the team so far has not observed any structural damage to systems, structures, and components important to nuclear safety or security of the plant, they reported observing minor superficial scorching to the top of the reactor dome roof of Unit 6 and scoring of a concrete slab supporting the primary make-up water storage tanks.

“Although the damage at unit 6 has not compromised nuclear safety, this was a serious incident that had the potential to undermine the integrity of the reactor’s containment system,” Director General Grossi said.
link
Sounds like a Russian false flag. Especially with having soldiers to show off the defense while the IAEA was right there. Like the blowing up of the dam, this is also one of these things that can only ever serve Russian interests.


Russia has changed tactics in targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, using precision missiles to destroy power stations in areas less protected than Kyiv, some of which cannot be fully restored in time for next winter.
Ukrainian officials said that while not as widespread, the damage that Moscow had inflicted was worse than in the winter of 2022-23, with the apparent aim now being permanent, irreparable damage.
This private information is unavailable to guests due to policies enforced by third-parties.
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Burned through what was still functional. Probably still large amounts of hulks and cannibalized bmps/tanks.

Fact theyre using cheapo chinese golf carts for battlefield movers is the surest sign they have. Also seeing videos now with 20+ dudes crammed onto a single piece of armor, almost certainly another sign of depleted armor inventory.
I'm going to speak in quasi-defense of Assault Golf Carts.
In vietnam, the US military had little 4 wheelers called "Mules", with guys strapping 105mm Recoilless Rifles onto them.
They were a big force multiplier as you could bring supplies in and wounded out much faster than by carrying them, and they were able to go where trucks couldn't, with the added advantage they were smallers and quieter than a 5 ton.

Of course these were off-road vehicles and not transporting soldiers like they are mexican day laborers through 155mm artillery fire.

WaPo "Democracy dies in darkness and we turn out the lights when a Dem's in office" is worthless when it comes to Trump. Trump could have funded a lab that created a cure for cancer, release the drug for free, and the WaPo headline will be "Trump worsens overpopulation crisis"

I remind you again:
Ukraine invasions under trump: 0
Ukraine invasion under biden: 1

Every single time.

I no longer believe anonymous sources for any story.
Double so with WaPo or NYT.

While this story may be based on sweet Fanny Adams ie fake news but it does cohere with the decided hostility of Trump's ultta Congressional supporters and various indications from multiple sources that Trump is hostile to Ukraine defending itself with Western aid.
Again, times Putin invaded countries while Trump was in office and threating to bomb Moscow in retaliation if he did: 0

Russian turtletank with full anti-drone shell:
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Kill Dozer Reboot looking good.
 
Does that stuff even work when it's outside of Russian psychic effect?
Unfortunately, yes. It really is as simple as just running a bunch of electricity into these things so they scream on every single frequency in every single direction. Fucks over literally everything, including your comms, but its not like Russian radios are known for their reliability or even presence.
Emotional support blanket. Reminds me of some medieval device I've seen in a book, gate ram I think.
They're evolving... backwards.
Hey, I've seen this one before!
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I rate their cosplay 2/10.

Guy talks about why a nation that has access to some of Earth's biggest natural resource reserves is a broke shithole. TL;DW: Corruption and Moscow.

Gotta say calling them "Burkina Faso, but with rockets" is insulting to the Burkina peoples though considering they're a French non-colony and don't really get a say in things.

https://archive.ph/S3h5Q

Vladimir Putin humiliated as bungling Russian air force reveal location of fighter jets​

Turns out nobody told the helicopter pilots to avoid landing on the decoys that were painted on airfields.
 

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Russian turtletank with full anti-drone shell:
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I have questions:
1. Wouldn't it tank (pun unintended) visibility? Like pretty sure have more than 25 degrees of sight is beneficial. Or are Russian tanks only expected to go forward like it's WW1?
2. Wouldn't it reduce weaponary to pure cannon, and one that once again, is insanely limited in targeting?
3. Wouldn't a drone that get through the large gap in the shield be much more lethal due to the enclosed explosion?
4. Wouldn't this tank be incredibly vulnerable to infantry chucking explosives from the side?
 
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