US US Politics General - Discussion of President Biden and other politicians

 

[ilovejews]

Probably. If anything, I can see Him asking about the slap fights and things like stickers.

I like to imagine our Lord as a kindly, racist grandpa that would lose his shit hearing all the new slurs we had to invent...

 

[Jade Philosophies]

Is it true that CNN has never covered any of Trump's rallies live...

... except the one he just happens to almost get assassinated at?

Yes. They've been refusing to cover any of his stuff live, except the debate obviously, since he left office.

 

[Day of the Cope]

 

[The Last Stand]

Milennial here. I vividly remember where I was, who I was with, and what I was feeling on 9/11. I was definitely old enough to understand the graveness and the tragedy of it all.

For me, 9/11 wasn't a political awakening. If anything, it was just the first really, really historical tragedy that I was alive and old enough to see AND understand the scope of it.

I recall the economic crisis of '08 being the beginning of the end in context. I don't even remember it being as bad as now. I had quality entertainment to fall back off. Trayon Martin wired a lot of people back into race consciousness for better or worse.

 

[Sumdood Too]

Because that’s not how those machines work at a basic level.

 

[Markorian]

This is also a conclusion I have reached. I was really into the Atheism movement in the early 2000s and a statement that really stands out in my mind that all of them said was: “I don’t need a God to be good.” This was said in response to Christians pointing out that without religion, they have zero moral framework with which to assess right and wrong.

Where are all these atheists now? They’re worshiping the soyence. They’re reevaluating the age of consent and whether or not animals can consent. They’re blowing their mind out in hard drugs.

I have reached two conclusions:

1) All the trendy atheists of the early 2000s took their Christian upbringing for granted and incorrectly assumed their moral code was independent from their Christian beliefs.

2) Almost everyone has a God-shaped hole in their soul. If God doesn’t fill it, then something else inevitably will. Some Atheists worship the state. Some worship money. Some worship the soyence. Some worship hedonism. For the fast majority of people, if their life doesn’t revolve around God, it’ll usually start to revolve around something that causes them to spiral.

I'm borrowing and paraphrasing heavily, but imagine Christian society is a fruit, and Christianity itself is a tree. They really love fruit, but HATE trees and want them all chopped down and mulched to sawdust. "What do you mean, we need trees for fruit? We can buy fruit at the grocery store!" We are at the point where the stores have run out of that stockpile and most don't sell fruit anymore, and atheists still can't see how chopping down all the fruit trees lead to this.

 

[Day of the Cope]

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The fact that the government is allowed to rely on closed-source programs never fails to send me into a rage.

 

[Betonhaus]

This is also a conclusion I have reached. I was really into the Atheism movement in the early 2000s and a statement that really stands out in my mind that all of them said was: “I don’t need a God to be good.” This was said in response to Christians pointing out that without religion, they have zero moral framework with which to assess right and wrong.

Where are all these atheists now? They’re worshiping the soyence. They’re reevaluating the age of consent and whether or not animals can consent. They’re blowing their mind out in hard drugs.

I have reached two conclusions:

1) All the trendy atheists of the early 2000s took their Christian upbringing for granted and incorrectly assumed their moral code was independent from their Christian beliefs.

2) Almost everyone has a God-shaped hole in their soul. If God doesn’t fill it, then something else inevitably will. Some Atheists worship the state. Some worship money. Some worship the soyence. Some worship hedonism. For the fast majority of people, if their life doesn’t revolve around God, it’ll usually start to revolve around something that causes them to spiral.

This has alarming implications about the amount of time i spend on kiwifarms.

 

[sadrefrigerator]

My impression is that local elections are getting more conservative. Nobody likes what's happening in their neighborhoods and the progressives weren't able to deliver on promises. However, the national conservative platform still has negative appeal to the average Californian so don't ever expect red on national elections.

Local elections are silly and don't follow any trends. Theres a few politicians who get their start running for local office, but its mostly notable locals and narcissistic housewives who run for local public positions. They don't really hold much real power and often don't deal with issues that are political in nature.

Very low, but I'm pretty sure county-by-county it's going to be mostly red outside LA/SF and the Marin County area. We actually had a Trump rally in 2020 near where I am with participation/turnout rivalling the yearly xmas lighted truck parade. I've noticed people are a lot more open with the hats/stickers as of late too, even before the assassination attempt. It makes me wish they'd finally pass any of the crazy state-splitting plans that've been proposed and gone nowhere over the years.

Theres a sizable republican population who pays for the CA democratic political machine through their taxes. Funny thing is that their tax money pays for all the laws newsom passes and all they do is whine about it. It doesn't matter how many conservatives you see in CA. LA and SF are 80-95% blue and places like orange county are 55% red. Without LA and SF, CA would be a purple state.

 

[sadrefrigerator]

Adam Schiff is so bad that even hair on fire insane crazy white liberal women are fed posting about him on Nextdoor and Facebook.

The thing about congress is you only need to appeal to one group in your district. I found out at a poker table that Armenians really love Schiff. He could be the most retarded guy in DC (and in many ways he is), but it doesn't matter because Armenians think he is "their guy"

 

[STARS158]

 

[Vining]

"CNN is a right wing MAGA station."
god i fucking love redditors being so open about how retarded they are

I have said this a million times over the last few years, but you need to remember that Reddit has been the source of social ineptitude and stupidity since the Starcraft Gold Source situation.



(And let's not forget the r/VolunteersforUkraine fiasco where the concept of OPSEC is something redditors cannot comprehend since they were stupid enough to broadcast their location on the internet. This has gotten Ukrainians killed.)

 

[UnKillFill]

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I've heard that people with dreadlocks can't and don't wash them... Imagine the smell.

 

[Sekirodiealot]

I don't watch CNN so I can't say for sure, but it seems incredibly doubtful, if for no other reason that they want to make rage bait content for their TDS audience.

On another note, I almost wonder if Kamala will wind up being the president for a short time before Biden's term is up. We already know what kind of shape Biden is in now and four months of heavy campaigning is not going to be easy on him. If he suffers a crushing loss in November, that could well push him over the edge and cause a major health condition that leaves him unable to act as president. Although I don't think it's likely, there's also a remote possibility that Kamala and the rest of the party are so upset over Joe not only losing badly, but also dragging down the party with him that they 25th amendment him just out of spite.

All I'll get from a harris administration is her laughing like a psycho every five minutes

 

[Markorian]

So, how was Trump's speech? I don't really have the 90 minutes free to listen to it, but I assume the "it was 10x as bad as Biden's debate performance!" from the media is pure cope?

 

[UnKillFill]

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I still don't get the "there were two shooters" theory for the Trump assassination attempt. If there were two, why didn't the second one shoot again after the first one missed?

 

[FILTH Tourist]

I still don't get the "there were two shooters" theory for the Trump assassination attempt. If there were two, why didn't the second one shoot again after the first one missed?

I think this meme is less about two shooters and more about glowies helping the kid along and leaving an opening for him.

 

[errforceonezz]

i wanted to do some autistic research and felt like sperging about polls and the map

Maine:
Trump has actually polled ahead in the entire state of Maine by a pretty big margin in the last few months (sometime around February he was up 6 points). This is not CD2 but the rest of Maine outside of the blue CD1. The problem is that I believe Maine has some scam ranked choice voting which would likely prevent Trump from actually winning the entire state outside of CD2 (which he will win).

New Hampshire:
NH is always supposedly going to go red and it never does (hasn't since Bush v Gore). It might actually go red this time (last poll had Trump +2, but the average still favors Biden). They haven't really been polling this much at all so its not very clear.

New York:
Trump has been polling much better than expected in NY but still hasn't looked like he can win on paper, though NY is not aggressively polled and hasn't been polled since early/mid June. Most of the recent polls have had Biden's lead under 10 points. Trump spent a lot of time campaigning in NY while they had him stuck there for his scam trial. I actually think he might have a chance to pull off a win after the shooting.

New Jersey:
New Jersey had a poll about a month ago that showed trump up by 1, I don't know why that poll doesn't show on RCP but it did happen. Jersey is barely ever polled and I think Trump's support is underestimated there. He has a much better chance to carry NJ than NY.
NJ was one of the states that implicitly sent main in ballots to all registered voters in 2020 and will continue to do so in 2024.

Pennsylvania:
PA was somewhat competitive until mid April. Since then Trump has been ahead in every single poll and has now solidified nearly a 5 point average. Trump also just got shot in PA, there is next to zero chance of Trump losing PA even with whatever ballot harvesting goes on in Philadelphia unless something changes.
2020 polls had Biden up by an average of 1.2 points, and the outcome was about the same.
2016 polls had Clinton up by an average of 2.1 and Trump won by 0.7.
Trump should not lose PA unless there is a major shift in the polling and Biden likely can not win without PA.
Main in voting was introduced in 2020 and has since been made permanent.

Virginia:
VA had not has a poll where Trump was ahead through all of last year, and in February it was around Biden +4. It was not polled again until May, and since then we have had 2 even polls, one Biden +3 and 2 Trump polls (+2, +3). The average now has Trump up by 0.4.
VA was a state that was turned blue by Obama and has stayed that way since. The media has treated it as a state that will never flip back and has decided to treat it as a safe blue state, even when it polls closer than some states they call 'toss up' states (like NC).
2020 polls had Biden up by +11 and he won by +9.4.
2016 polls had Clinton up by +5.3 and she won by +5.4.
Trump could carry easily VA.

North Carolina:
Trump has polled consistently ahead in NC, and has a +5.7 average lead. There is an obsession with NC turning blue in the media, and they continue to poll it frequently even though it shows no signs of flipping.
The media has decided to treat NC as a tossup despite the margin being far wider than that of VA (which they treat as a safe blue state). Historically NC is a safe red state outside of Obama's first election, you have to go back to Jimmy Carter to see it turn blue before that.
2020 polls had Trump up +0.2 and he won by +1.3.
2016 polls had Trump up by +0.8 and he won by +3.6.
I really don't see Trump losing NC.

Georgia:
Trump has consistently polled ahead for over a year and has a lead of +4.0 on average now.
The media has been obsessing over GA turning blue for a while and finally in 2020 with a ton of ballot harvesting it managed to just barely happen. Before that it had not been blue since Clinton's first term.
2020 polls had Trump up by +1.0 and the final result was Biden +0.3.
2016 polls had Trump up by +4.8 and he won by +5.1.
GA implicitly sent ballot applications to all registered voters in 2020 (not actual ballots), which is no longer the case this year (they must be requested).
GA also made the requirements to receive absentee ballots more strict, requiring ID, and changed some rules around drop boxes to attempt to make ballot harvesting more difficult.
I don't see Trump losing GA, I think this state was the most impacted by the ballot harvesting.

Michigan:
This has been pretty back and forth for most of the last year but seems to be leaning Trump more consistently over the last month. Currently it sits at Trump +1.7.
2020 polls had Biden up by +4.2 and the final result was +2.8.
2016 polls had Clinton up by +3.6 and the final result was Trump up by +0.3.
The media has struggled really hard to poll MI accurately for some reason (maybe its perception as a safe blue state created selection bias somehow) and Trump tends to over perform there. Before Trump it had not gone red since Bush Sr.
MI has some absentee voting rules that make it very easy to get an absentee ballot that were actually put in place in 2018. There is some permanent absentee list that you can be added to that results in you just receiving an absentee ballot for every future election without having to apply again. Supposedly about 1.3 million people are on this list.

Wisconsin:
Like MI, WI was really close for a while and now has stabilized for Trump over the last month, with it sitting at Trump +3.3 now.
2020 polls had Biden up by +6.7 with a final result of +0.7.
2016 polls had Clinton up by +6.5 with a final result of Trump by +0.7.
This is another state like MI that the media has struggled to poll, possibly also due to some bias created by its perception as a safe blue state (WI had not gone red before Trump since Reagan's second term).
WI has had 'no excuse' absentee voting in place since 2000.

Minnesota:
Current average has Biden at +3.0. MN is similar to MI and WI with the exception that Trump has not managed to win MN.
2020 polls had Biden up by +4.3 with a final result of Biden +7.2.
2016 polls had Clinton up by +11 with a final result of Clinton +1.5.
There is a false perception that MN is harder to flip than MI and WI, and it results in less resources being put into by Trump. I think this is a flawed perspective, as its swayed by the fact that it was the one actual state (outside of DC) that Reagan did not win in 1988, but Mondale was actually from MN which seems to be overlooked when judging its historical blue status.
I don't expect Trump to win MN but its not as unlikely as people think.
MN has had 'no excuse' absentee voting since 2014. They added a permanent list similar to MI in 2024.

Arizona:
Trump has lead every AZ poll for over a year now, with a current average of Trump + 6.0. Before 2020 it had been red since Clinton's second term.
2020 polls had Biden up by +0.9 and a final result of Biden +0.3.
2016 polls had Trump up by +4.0 and a final result of Trump +3.5.
AZ has had 'no excuse' mail in voting since 1991. There have been a few changes sincve 2020, the requirements to get a mail in ballot are stricter (an ID is required and signature verification will supposedly be stricter), this also applies to absentee ballots (I'm not really sure what the difference is considering they have 'no excuse' absentee voting, but either way it should be slightly more strict than 2020).

Nevada:
Trump has had a consistent lead in NV since late last year and currently has a lead of +5.1.
2020 polls had Biden at +2.4 with the final result being the same.
2016 polls had Trump up by +0.8 with a final result of Clinton by +2.4.
NV was one of the states that actually implicity sent every single registered voter a mail in ballot in 2020 (without the need to request one). They made it permanent in 2022, so there is the chance for a lot of shady ballot harvesting that could occur here. Pair that with the fact that it was one of the states that Trump has not out performed polls in (and even underperformed in 2016) and it becomes a potentially difficult state to win, though if he maintains a 5 point lead he should be able to overcome that.


additionally here are all of the states that decided they would just implicitly mail all registered voters a ballot in 2020
California - will again for 2024
Colorado - will again for 2024
Hawaii - will again for 2024
Nevada - will again for 2024
New Jersey - will again for 2024
Oregon - will again for 2024
Utah - will again for 2024
Vermont - will again for 2024
Washington - will again for 2024
DC - will again for 2024


a few other notes:
Georgia (as stated above) made it slightly harder to get an absentee ballot (an ID is now required). They have also attempted to make ballot harvesting more difficult by mandating that drop boxes now must be inside early voting locations, and ballots can only be dropped in drop boxing during normal voting hours. There are some rules stating that they must be monitored at all times and they have reduced the number of available drop boxes.

Florida has added similar very rules to GA.

Texas has added an ID requirement and a few other changes (including banning 'drive through voting').

Iowa made some changes to shorten the timeframe of early voting and absentee voting, and made some law restricting who can drop off another person's ballots.

Arizona (as stated above) absentee/mail in ballots will require an ID and more strict signature verification now.

 

[STARS158]

I think this meme is less about two shooters and more about glowies helping the kid along and leaving an opening for him.

I wonder what crazy Alex Jones is talking about...

 

[Edgy But Dull]

What are the odds that California flips red?

There's a lot of rumbling going on in California but honestly it's a very unlikely chance it will turn red. Yes, a lot of people have become very upset with Newsom obliterating the state but at the end of the day, California's vote is controlled by San Francisco and predominately Los Angeles. They will just stack the votes super hard in those cities because they know no one will stop them.

For perspective, the voter turnout for LA County during the 2016 election was 3,434,308 voters while it was 4,264,365 voters for the 2020 election. Trump gained 375,787 more votes in 2020 (48% increase over 2016). Keep in mind, the Department of Public Health stated that LA county's population in 2016 was estimated to be 10,227,450 while their population in 2020 was 10,01,009 according to the 2020 census. Somehow they managed to have 830k more voters show up despite the county shrinking by 226k. They're just going to keep counting in the big cities until all the other counties finish so they know how much they need to cheat.