US US Politics General - Discussion of President Biden and other politicians

 

[Sithis]

I think you're underestimating how hard these polls are pushing. For Kamla to win, she needs to be up around 5 points nationally to have a shot of winning the EC. For example, on election day, the polls misted by 6 points in PA, so those polls showing she, even with Trump, are not enough. Also, in Deep Blue states like NY and CA, trump has improved significantly.
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This is important as it shows that support behind the scenes is much worse than it seems, as it doesn't make sense that she's losing progress in blue states but gaining nationally. The answer is she isn't actually ahead, and some pollsters are pushing a narrative the electorate would be significantly more in the Democrat's favor than the actual stats point out alongside response bias. This is why you're seeing such wild swings in some polls, as the samples are all over the place and, in some cases, internal under and oversampling groups to make the narrative stick and are not coordinating to make the numbers consistent in the cross tabs. This also explains why she chose Walz, as she is concerned about losing MN.

It always amazes me how reluctant people are to believe that polls are garbage. Sure, they're "the best we have" but they are hilariously subject to misleading polling tactics or other fuckery. And this has been demonstrated time and time again, you can find people who will say really outlandish retarded shit, and birds of a feather flock together. And today's digital world makes it easier than ever to direct your poll to the specific audience you want, everything from your favorite foods to deeply held political biases are already traded on lists for advertisement. Give me the right time and funding and I could probably get a similarly stacked poll that finds "a majority" of people want cats to be given human rights.

 

[Catboy Ranch]

Didn't even double-post in the right thread. Shameful display.

I got nigger internet where I am on my phone. Not even pajeet internet here.

 

[Absolutego]

Are you fucking for real? The reason Hillary lost 2016 is because even though the polls were fake they weren't actively cheating. This time they are. Even then, Hillary's polling average was lower than Kamala's. 0.6% lead over Trump versus Kamala's consistent 1.5-2% lead in the polls. That's enough of a lead for plausible deniability when they rig the election. Contrary to belief, I don't think Arizona is lost. But Trump needs Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Michigan to win. Michigan and Wisconsin are out. No voting reforms were done at all and both states have degenerated into blue shitholes. Pennsylvania is slightly more secure, but not secure enough that cheating isn't possible.

It's amazing that you can simultaneously quote supposed polling averages while also complaining that they're fucking with the polls.
Michigan had some mild reform and it honestly depends on whether or not Whitmer vs. the legislature pans out, and they're shit-scared about turnout even without that, it's probably the real reason Shapiro isn't their VP nominee.
Losing him puts PY in play way more than it was maybe a week ago. We'll see if the West can overcome the East.

 

[Forest Portal Triumph 747]

https://fixupx.com/DickCWrecht/status/1820950410359889940

someone archive this vid, wtf is tim walz doing here?

 

[National Tragedy]

Tim Walz also hurts dems, as in MN, there are post-birth abortions where the baby services the process but is left to die instead of being given the care to save their life.

Got any sources on the post birth abortion thing? I've heard about this for years but never been able to find any legit documentation sources.

 

[barrow greeter]

Probably a white (non-jewish) dude, probably one of the governors she has to pick from.

They're still in the process of boiling the frog, after all.

"I predicted thith" - cerno

 

[DicksOutForKiwigglers]

It's amazing that you can simultaneously quote supposed polling averages while also complaining that they're fucking with the polls.
Michigan had some mild reform and it honestly depends on whether or not Whitmer vs. the legislature pans out, and they're shit-scared about turnout even without that, it's probably the real reason Shapiro isn't their VP nominee.
Losing him puts PY in play way more than it was maybe a week ago. We'll see if the West can overcome the East.

Again, the idea isn't that polls are real. The idea is that we can look at the polls to see what they're planning. They're astro-turfing Kamala now so they can point to the polls and use them to placate normies. "There was no cheating. All the polls said she was ahead! Republicans are just sore losers/fascists/Nazis/etc. Don't listen to their lies. Don't even acknowledge their so called evidence."

 

[Some Dumb Faggot]

https://fixupx.com/DickCWrecht/status/1820950410359889940

someone archive this vid, wtf is tim walz doing here?

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Touching her penis.

 

[Your Girlfriend's Dad]

The rigging, plus the fact that Cuntmala is being astroturfed to all hell.

All you're telling us is that you're buying the exact line they want you to buy. It's demoralization and it does not bear resemblance to reality.

 

[Dog-O-Tron 5000v5.0]

No, but I also won't throw the biggest temper tantrum ever like you retards did in 2020. I also won't screech about election fraud because your elderly, obese waifu said it was fraud (even when his lawyers admitted he lost fairly); it is pretty hilarious how you tards still claim it was fraud because your grifting waifu told you it was even when his own lawyers admitted it wasn't

Seeing HHH back with all his old shtick was like when Terry Bollea got back into character and was saying all his old catchphrases at the RNC, makes me feel warm and fuzzy.

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I wonder if Tim Walz went drinking and driving because he had a close call with one of his male students that he was perving on, and drank and drove from the stress

Drove a little over the BAC and resigned from school job to not look bad to students?

Pussy shit. Call me when this nigga is dumping dead bears in the park.

 

[DicksOutForKiwigglers]

All you're telling us is that you're buying the exact line they want you to buy. It's demoralization and it does not bear resemblance to reality.

But it does. It requires cognitive dissonance to deny that this is the democratic party's plan. I'm not trying to be demoralizing. I'm trying to encourage people to not get their hopes on election night so we don't lose our minds like in 2020 and let our opportunities to fix things go to waste. People got way too emotional and did stupid shit like fall for the bait on Jan 6th. Even Trump himself fell for the bait. This time we need a plan and to be rational enough to figure out a strategy that works.

Even if you think I'm crazy, what's wrong with creating a game plan for if I'm right?

 

[CarlKingofDucks]

Republicans write off Walz at their peril, truly.

He's a more formidable opponent than you think. He's poison under a wrapping of Minnesota nice. With only weeks in the campaign, people are likely to see the superficial affable grandpa layer and not realize the rot underneath goes all the way to the core. Walz is the kind of down-to-earth guy who is incredibly good at relating to heartlanders in a way that is tough for people outside that region to understand. I think this ensures a Wisconsin win for the Democrats, as well as securing Michigan.

Don't all of Minnesota except for the somalians hate him?

 

[Sargon's wife's son]

Just look at how many of them lionize that war hawk John McCain - the "anti-war left" is pro war when they are in power - just look at every time a hawkey Democrat is President and also how they despise any right winger who is Isolationist.

The anti war movement was entirely a product of Soviet and socialist NGO's notice when you talk to the anti war left about World War Two they suddenly have bloodlust like no other person involved in the conflict.
The only words that ever opposed for wars that were against the fellow socialists wars against socialists in South America Vietnam Korea notice how they never complained about the Soviet invasion of Yugoslavia the Soviet invasion of Hungary the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan the Chinese invasion of Tibet the Chinese invasion of India the Chinese invasion of Vietnam.

The anti war left was bought and paid for by America's enemies always was always will be

 

[kobebyarlant]

He did with Mike Pence. Only difference is that Trump has more charisma than Biden or Kamela.

Again, a milquetoast evangelical to lock down a former swing state like Indiana (went for Obama on 08 ) is not the same as putting a creationist hellfire type from the solid red Deep South on the ticket. Both Bernie and Trump are populists, but it wouldn’t make sense to say they’re the same thing.

 

[Neil]

LMAO Walz called Vance a couchfucker at today's rally, he might be the most based VP pick in the last 40 years.

 

[Your Girlfriend's Dad]

But it does. It requires cognitive dissonance to deny that this is the democratic party's plan. I'm not trying to be demoralizing. I'm trying to encourage people to not get their hopes on election night so we don't lose our minds like in 2020 and let our opportunities to fix things go to waste. People got way too emotional and did stupid shit like fall for the bait on Jan 6th. Even Trump himself fell for the bait. This time we need a plan and to be rational enough to figure out a strategy that works.

Even if you think I'm crazy, what's wrong with creating a game plan for if I'm right?

The last bit is my exact fucking point. Go sign up to be a poll watcher. Ballot harvest. Whatever. Just stop sticking your asshole in the air while telling us you're waiting to get fucked.

Also, you hit so many fucking talking points that the left incessantly calls wins on reddit and other pozzed up sites that I have serious issues believing you're not just some pinko faggot looking to demoralize.

 

[mandatorylurk]

This is why the polls are so fucked up now, they're making it up, as Baris said it's now the Silly Season before they have to be serious in order to look credible in the end.


crosstabs:



Someone breaking it down even easier:



Men will not swing to Harris that way, and that poll has Trump winning white men by just 5%. That is retarded thinking.

 

[Rome's rightful successor]

I wonder how many Harris Walz campaign signs are going to get vandalized so that they say "Hairy Balz" instead.

Completely ingenious.

 

[HOMO FOR LIFE RETURNS]

LMAO Walz called Vance a couchfucker at today's rally, he might be the most based VP pick in the last 40 years.

there was a rally? LOL

 

[MetokurGroomedMe]

The only words that ever opposed for wars that were against the fellow socialists wars against socialists in South America Vietnam Korea notice how they never complained about the Soviet invasion of Yugoslavia the Soviet invasion of Hungary the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan the Chinese invasion of Tibet the Chinese invasion of India the Chinese invasion of Vietnam.

alright, man. i kinda agreed with you somewhat, but this is retarded. i wonder why AMERICANS weren't protesting SOVIET INVASIONS. what the fuck was the US supposed to do about moscow's decision to invade bfe? i mean shit, we DID counter an invasion in afghanistan, and look what that got us.

This is why the polls are so fucked up now, they're making it up, as Baris said it's now the Silly Season before they have to be serious in order to look credible in the end.

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crosstabs:
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Someone breaking it down even easier:

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Men will not swing to Harris that way, and that poll has Trump winning white men by just 5%. That is retarded thinking.

does that poll really have a +/- of almost 4%? that's pretty fucking big, isn't it? doesn't that give a potential 8% leeway between trump and harris' numbers as they are now? -4 on harris and +4 on trump? i don't know for sure, i struggle to read this data-overload sometimes.