Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Ghostse]

The more I think about it, the more absolutely genius this is. Not only does it make Russia look like the bitches they are, and not only turns Russian clay into WWI uninhabitable UXO deadzone for the next 100 years, but the reason Ukraine is having trouble pushing Russia out of its territory is because Borscht and Guts, the last competent commander Moscow had, blew his entire military career to construct a solid defensive line built on the area's tactical situation not lines drawn by politicians.

No one else is going to do that. Kursk is going to be the new hot zone.

Interesting, of course, reports are coming in. Several battalions of infantry with equipment, artillery and SAMs are being called (https://t.me/milinfolive/127726) a "sabotage and reconnaissance group" and a military offensive operation a "large-scale provocation".

Sending support equipment with your troops on an attack? What a concept.

Also this guy got greased.

Please let it have been friendly fire, please let it have been friendly fire.

I mean, I think its ghoulish to grave dance; I don't have a lot of sympathy being the guy had no requirement to be risking the dangers of the front just in a "Fuck around, find out" manner, but its still unfortunate he's dead.

But since he is, given all his putin-sucking and misinformation and carrying water for war criminals while alive, for the sake of justice I hope it was Russian munitions that got him.

It's a concoction of Cold War Era "if we scare Russia, they'll nuke us!!!" but also Obama Era "table of nations" bullshit; wherein the US is just one actor and its somehow the responsibility of the US to cater to what our enemies think or feel.

Its mostly Obongo's bitchmade policy.

Perhaps another indicator of how Trump might handle the hohol-katsap war: Kellyanne Conway, one of Trump's closest allies once in his presidential inner circle, has taken a job lobbying for Ukraine:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/05/us/politics/kellyanne-conway-ukraine-lobbying.html

https://archive.is/VApws

No but see a close Trump ally doing something that helps Ukraine in no way means that Trump will support Ukraine after election, but here's a bunch of pearl clutching speculative fanfiction masked as news articles about how Trump is definitely going to not just drop Ukraine day-1 but also redirect all the military aid to Russia because he's a Russian agent controlled by the existence of the pee tape. Vote blue no matter who.

Our Media have been left wing simps for a long time. They wanted the US to lie back and take whatever the USSR was going to do to us; Reagan building our Military back up and correctly identifying Ivan and all of his fucking client states as the enemy ran counter to their red propaganda. FFS, the NYT kept the guy who said there was no famine in Ukraine on the books and covered for his ass for decades.

Not just that, but correctly surmized (or I should say the Hawks he surrounded himself with did) that once you got through the scare-cope about the Poliburo being able to dictate production, that the USSR's economy was fucking garbage and if you ran the US economy up a few hundred RPMs they wouldn't have any prayer of keeping up.

 

[HOMO FOR LIFE RETURNS]

Can we change the title of the thread to Ukranian offensive.

 

[Rezza]

Genuine question, does the Ukrainian military have enough personnel and materials to occupy the territory they took in this excursion to Kursk?

 

[HOMO FOR LIFE RETURNS]

Genuine question, does the Ukrainian military have enough personnel and materials to occupy the territory they took in this excursion to Kursk?

I think this is just best defense is offense tactic. Although, they may lose more once they are in retreat....

 

[WhiteNight]

I don't know whether the Kursk invasion makes sense from a military perspective, but it's absolutely hilarious. I expect considerable progress to be made since Russia has not built a Surovikin line inside its own territory. As Prigozhin found, there is literally nothing to stop a march all the way to Moscow other than blowing a few bridges.

Here are proposals I've seen discussed for the benefits of this invasion:

• Among those in the West with war fatigue, there's an idea in the air of pushing for a cease-fire freezing the lines where they are, so that Russia de facto gets to keep the land it's stolen. Putin himself may have signalled an interest in this plan. However, Russia will never accept this if it also means Ukraine gets to keep a chunk of Russia because, hey, that's where the lines are.
• Dozens at least of Russian conscripts have been taken prisoner, often quickly surrendering because they're mostly teenagers who barely can operate a gun. Regular soldiers are contract volunteers, convicts, etc., contrasted with conscripts who come from mandatory service for all men, including the urban middle class, who Russian society cares about more than rural minorities. Conscripts are as a rule not deployed in overseas wars. They are thus more valuable for prisoner exchange.
• There has been a longstanding norm in the West that Russian territory is sacrosanct. This is stupid, as Ukraine is entirely within its rights to fight back, but our politicians (cough Biden cough Scholz) are cowards. Well, that norm is being stomped on. Ukraine has launched a full-scale invasion, and Russia's response is no different than for every other "red line" crossed: downplay, deny, ignore, pretend like it's nothing that stronk Russia can't handle.
• There are of course direct military advantages. Troops will have to be pulled off other fronts, the Vovchansk grouping may be flanked, logistics and industrial nodes and lines of communication can be seized.

There are still skeptics who see this as nothing but PR to boost Ukraine's standing and morale and give Russia a symbolic black eye, but my non-expert take is that it's putting Russia in a bad spot.

 

[Ghostse]

There are still skeptics who see this as nothing but PR to boost Ukraine's standing and morale and give Russia a symbolic black eye, but my non-expert take is that it's putting Russia in a bad spot.

Its mostly optics, but it is also
A) Ukraine is crossing Russias "Red line" - make us mad by invading Russia and we'll kill ourselves start a nuclear war, we are big mad, we MEAN IT! and showing them to be whining little bitches. Basically "C'mon give us some long range missiles and let us start terror bombing Moscow, they are clearly spineless cucks who won't do anything about it except sob."
B) Russia now has to pull men and equipment from positions to the south. It doesn't matter if they aren't taking anything strategic, or even if left more-or-less alone the Yooks really couldn't extend their lines far enough into russia to threaten anything important, Russia has to respond and push them back. Russia has to do a fast shift of forces and that is likely to leave whereever the troops are pulled from exposed if Ukraine has another thrust ready.

Ukraines commited forces could end up encircled and 100% lost due to capture/kill and it would still be a huge catastrophe for Russia just from how retarded this has made them look.

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/7-august-attempted-attack-of-the-ukrainian-fpv-drone-on-the
archive

Sparrow hunts a dragon kinda vibe. I don't think people that designed these helicopters ever imagined that they'd be threatened by what's essentially a flying home appliance.

 

[IAmNotAlpharius]

Transneft oil refinery in Usinsk (Komi Republic, Russia) gets ACK'd, 2000km (a new record) away from Ukraine:
View attachment 6279082View attachment 6279087

Ka-52 downed in Kursk:
View attachment 6279464

The strikes on the refineries and other energy production infrastructure does more damage than killing a 100 Russian conscripts.

Can we change the title of the thread to Ukranian offensive.

Ukrainian special military operation in Kursk.

 

[Rezza]

I am now more partial with the "ceasefire delay" for the reasoning of this Kursk action. Kyiv must've sensed, with the rate the war is going, that ceasefire of some sort is going to happen soon without more help and military/political reform. That's why they're attacking Kursk to make the outside politicians to delay their ceasefire proposal
Nevertheless, whatever the reasons, this would be quite a big gamble for Ukraine

 

[SiggyB]

Am I an absolute moron to think that Ukraine is launching this raid / limited offensive / offensive not for ground gains but to harass the Russian airforce? What better way to show off your shiny new F-16s than to get the Russians to concentrate air assets in a tighter area, then start smacking them with them new toys? We'll see over the coming days if this holds water or not. All I know is that in one day these dudes pushed further into Russia than Russia did during their Kharkiv clusterfuck. Gaining land doesn't win the war, of course - not with attrition being the whore it is - but man does it look good for the papers.

 

[thx1138]

You know I realize they're probably not but if the 43rd (I think that's the unit attacking into Russia) was using M113s, M1s, Humvees, Brads etc. that would be just <chef's kiss> fantastic.

 

[Snekposter]

Am I an absolute moron to think that Ukraine is launching this raid / limited offensive / offensive not for ground gains but to harass the Russian airforce? What better way to show off your shiny new F-16s than to get the Russians to concentrate air assets in a tighter area, then start smacking them with them new toys? We'll see over the coming days if this holds water or not. All I know is that in one day these dudes pushed further into Russia than Russia did during their Kharkiv clusterfuck. Gaining land doesn't win the war, of course - not with attrition being the whore it is - but man does it look good for the papers.

That is a possibility. No matter what Russia tries to publicly claim about this a hostile nation has occupied their soil during a time of war, and Putin has to respond decisively to back up his statements about this just being a minor, easily-defeated incursion that's nothing to worry about. If he does that he'll actually come out ahead. "Ah ha, your serious attempt at conquest was nothing but a mere easily-defeated raid to the stronk Russian military!" At minimum he certainly can't leave them alone to dig in and use it as a launching point for raids. No doubt its thrown a bunch of Russian offensive planning into the trash bin, and I suspect we'll hear rumors about some harsh words at the Kremlin before too long. Now, I doubt there will be any unusual window accidents, but someone is going to get blamed for making Putin look like a bitch by being unable to stop the Ukrainians from crossing.

 

[Foltest]

You know I realize they're probably not but if the 43rd (I think that's the unit attacking into Russia) was using M113s, M1s, Humvees, Brads etc. that would be just <chef's kiss> fantastic.

I saw at least some humvees in the attack.
If we see some Abrams, I will be overjoyed.

 

[Seethan Ralph]

Please let this show last a bit more than 2 days

 

[Least Concern]

Now, I doubt there will be any unusual window accidents, but someone is going to get blamed for making Putin look like a bitch by being unable to stop the Ukrainians from crossing.

Aside from being unable to stop the kinetic action, that this was such a surprise to the Russians exposes a massive intelligence failure on their part. This was much more than a little nighttime raid that the Ukes must have been planning and staging for weeks, and yet between spy networks, satellite photography, signal interception, and so on, Russia either had no idea this was happen or critically underestimated its magnitude. Where was that fearsome KGB?

I personally wouldn't be surprised to see some window accidents, especially if this is going to go on for much longer.

 

[Boopersnout]

Russian Railway Networks Facing 'Imminent Collapse'

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

Interesting video I think. It's like NATO seeing Putin's posturing and going "Two can play that game"
Though I'm honestly surprised they're doing anything at all

I also heard that the propaganda pig who was hit in Kursk is supposedly still alive. Terrible news if so, few people deserve death as much these scumbags.

 

[No. 7 cat]

This would explain why it was a surprise to the Russians. They weren't informed by their usual source.

That's a point that deserves underlining. Either moles upon moles or a very stupid idea on the part of the US government that telling avoids escalation, or both.

 

[World in Scarlet]

Also this guy got greased.

Reports of his death were overly hasty, he is still alive, merely wounded.

link

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B) Russia now has to pull men and equipment from positions to the south. It doesn't matter if they aren't taking anything strategic, or even if left more-or-less alone the Yooks really couldn't extend their lines far enough into russia to threaten anything important, Russia has to respond and push them back. Russia has to do a fast shift of forces and that is likely to leave whereever the troops are pulled from exposed if Ukraine has another thrust ready.

Russian irretrievable losses in Kharkiv are estimated (by Russian milbloggers) to be in the 10k+ range, but the Northern Group was estimated to be made up of maybe 50k soldiers pre-attack (and likely to have received replacements since). In addition to that, there are various conscript and (para)-military groupings in the area. People say it's unlikely that the Russians will be forced to withdraw a significant number of troops from the East to deal with with a few hundred to maybe a thousand or so militants.

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Genuine question, does the Ukrainian military have enough personnel and materials to occupy the territory they took in this excursion to Kursk?

When the Russians send substantial forces there, it will fold, either immediately, or soon, depending on how many resources are committed on either side. Estimates of the size of the Kursk People's Republic troops vary wildly, but the biggest are an order of magnitude below what experts think would be needed to hold onto significant areas inside Russia. At the moment it appears that the advances have slowed down and will likely end before reaching anything of economic or military significance, but we will see.
Note that many people refer to these troops as "the Armed Forces of Ukraine", but there is also the opinion that these are local militias opposing Muscovite tyranny. Some call these events the "Ukrainian Spring".

The Russians have been open about their retrieval of western equipment, so its usage by the KPR troops cannot be seen as evidence of foreign support. The people of Kursk have been less outspoken about their desire for local autonomy than those of Belgorod, so so far the VKS has not used heavy bombs against their positions as far as I know, while such weapons were liberally deployed all across the Belgorod Special Operations Zone.

The KPR is rumored to be led by this unidentified man.


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The reason so many people are so critical of these happenings is that the East Front situation is pretty bad due to shortages of everything (including competent orders from High Command), so these forces are absolutely needed elsewhere for purposes that are quite a lot more important than a pure propaganda operation.
Thus the assessment of this incursion depends on the outcome, and anything short of truly spectacular successes would be considered a great blunder.

Spoiler: Eastern Front

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Notably, recent Russian advances of up to 1km a day there have come at a decreasing cost of Russian materiel, compared to the catastrophic losses at the start of the Russian summer offensive, although they are still high and Russians even press the wounded and non-combat personnel into assault groups to maintain the pressure.

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This private information is unavailable to guests due to policies enforced by third-parties.

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Edit:
I added this to my previous post about the "war crime" being blasted by all the Russian channels yesterday in case people didn't notice the significance of what was being shown:

(To make it absolutely clear: The civilian with the dash cam arrived at the scene in-between the Bukhanka driving off the road and it being seen burning, and finds that there are dead soldiers with assault rifles lying on the road, that, as far as I can tell with the poor quality drone footage, were not there when the van arrived (it would have had to drive over them too). It shows that there was a significant time gap that was cut out of the Russian drone video and begs the question what happened in that time.)

 

[teriyakiburns]

That's a point that deserves underlining. Either moles upon moles or a very stupid idea on the part of the US government that telling avoids escalation, or both.

Don't forget, the us military command is so ideologically compromised that general miley communicated directly with his opposite in china, during the last days of trump's presidency, to coordinate a response in the event of a conflict between the two nations. There's also plenty of evidence of collaboration between European officials and russia. The probability that senior figures within NATO are secretly communicating with Russia, for whatever retarded reason they might have, is very high.