Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[3-2-1836]

Though really, this comes back to the question of why Ukraine is pushing hard, what exactly are they hoping to accomplish by holding Kursk? Putin's not going to back down but what is Ukraine's objectives once they get a firm grip in Russian territory? Sweep westward?

Kinda hard to demand 1991 borders when only one side holds land beyond it.

 

[The Man With No Name]

Though really, this comes back to the question of why Ukraine is pushing hard, what exactly are they hoping to accomplish by holding Kursk? Putin's not going to back down but what is Ukraine's objectives once they get a firm grip in Russian territory? Sweep westward?

I'm not sure if it's a plan to actually take and hold firmly. If I had to guess, it's a foothold to start allowing more disparate groups to flow through and attack infrastructure.

Sending handfuls of guys in different directions to start damaging railway, power stations, things that are less guarded deeper into the country. Maintaining guerilla warfare within Russia which will make popular sentiment for the war plummet because suddenly things are disrupted for the interior. Continue to attack and sabotage supply lines from within.

 

[The Morning Visitor]

"We have more guys than you have bullets" doesn't work when the other guy actually has more bullets than you have men.

To be fair, if China continues feigning neutrality, America has way more guys than Russia. God forbid, if Kyiv falls, we can throw twice as many men at their problem and we can throw them a magnitude of 10 greater, especially with all the combat data we've been gathering on the equipment we've gifted Ukraine. The Russian goose has been cooked.

They may take land up to the Dnipro after a decade of sacrificing their millennial/zoomer generation-aged men, but the west will outlast them.

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

 

[R00T]

Citation needed. My experience has been large groups of people walking like that require at least of week of shouting and screaming to get to that to that point. They don't just do it "naturally". And especially not in a casual setting.

entrainment is very much a thing and any group (friends, coworkers, soldiers, romantic partners) are able to do it. it is something that happens subconsciously, and if you do any sort of work with a group of people you will notice while walking that you will naturally fall in line. It is not surprising at all that these men are in lock step. Yes training and regiment will lead people to do this, but given it's not a regimented march i'm going to go with this being entrainment in the moment. I'd assume soldiers on the battlefield would develop the relationships that you typically see this phenomena occurring.

fun fact you can do the same with breathing. You don't notice stuff like this though because you're not typically noticing someone else's breathing, and it's something you do naturally so you don't think about your own breathing.

 

[Snekposter]

Vs. this thread where we don't bother posting Ukrainian MOD releases except to laugh at them because we understand it'll also be full of slavic lies.

Yeah, I explicitly avoid posting links to anything from Ukrainian media unless its something that can't be faked, like that state trip from Japan I posted about.

Numbers, statistics, and other battlefield claims though? Yeah, those are probably only slightly closer to reality than anything out of Russia, simply because they try and make the lies plausible, or at least physically possible.

 

[Ghostse]

This thread tends to have more realism, it's not full doomer but it's also not full SLAVA UKRAINE UPDOOTS TO THE LEFT. I think it has fairer analysis of both Russian and Ukrainian capabilities, and the western aid Ukraine continues getting.

We call out unrealistic unironic cope and we don't encourage random gore posting. Ol' Puckers is about as Yooknik as we get, vs the utter levels of tankie cope the vatniggers post.

People here have IQs above room temperature and an understanding of the world that wasn't fed to them by a KGB handler at this morning's pep rally.

This is just a hunch on my part, but I think Putin intended to invade Ukraine earlier than he did but after Trump won, he was forced to wait because of uncertainty over how he'd respond to Russia bringing war back to Europe. Hillary and Biden didn't really spook him because of his overall familiarity with both, since they spent so long in DC as swamp rats.

There were also issues with COVID and China asking him to wait till after the Olympics to start some shit. I think Putin started the invasion as soon as he realistically could have, given he didn't really start getting ready till after Biden won.

Putin explicitly chose to fuck around with Biden because he was VP during Barrack "Bitchmade" Obama and Putin was expecting more of the same. No one, I mean literally no one except for the Estonians (somefuckinghow) , was ready for the fact that Ukraine had actually listened to the green berrets and implemented their suggestions.

Though really, this comes back to the question of why Ukraine is pushing hard, what exactly are they hoping to accomplish by holding Kursk? Putin's not going to back down but what is Ukraine's objectives once they get a firm grip in Russian territory? Sweep westward?

They are hitting Russia with a lightning attack in an area that doesn't have built-up fortifications. This forces Russia to shift resources and fight desperately and all out- burning more irreplacable resources, being unable to pick and choose which cold-war era system to send soldiers to sacrifice themselves in, and not being able to leverage defenses their only competent general burned his career to provide.
They may also be hoping to bait out high-value targets: Air assets, armored vehicles designed after stalin died, etc.

It also sends a very clear message: Russia is a bitch. They are a paper tiger bear, there is no need to fear them, they can't even defend their own border. This plays both to country populations and world leaders: there is nothing to fear from Russia saying they are angry at you. the "World's 2nd Army" shit was always a lie.

To be fair, if China continues feigning neutrality, America has way more guys than Russia. God forbid, if Kyiv falls, we can throw twice as many men at their problem and we can throw them a magnitude of 10 greater, especially with all the combat data we've been gathering on the equipment we've gifted Ukraine.

If the US threw in, it wouldn't even get to boots on the ground. Russia's AAD network wouldn't have stood more than a week before they started this shit, and has been rotted out by two years of fighting Ukraine. I bet F-15s wouldn't even need ECM pods to bomb Moscow today.

 

[draggs]

If the US threw in, it wouldn't even get to boots on the ground. Russia's AAD network wouldn't have stood more than a week before they started this shit, and has been rotted out by two years of fighting Ukraine. I bet F-15s wouldn't even need ECM pods to bomb Moscow today.

They would... for about two weeks. Then there'd be about one functioning S- system left protecting Moscow and it'd be shut down to save it from being blown up like the other ones

 

[CheepMeds]

View attachment 6302313

Is it too much of a fantasy that Western nations could make like a whole propaganda and migration initiative where it spreads messages likes this and then funnels prisoners of war out of the whole region into something like a specialized migrant camp somewhere within EU. (I mean they already have the infrastructure and I'd still argue this is better than Somali migrants)

Then because of the propaganda incentives those would be as humane as realistically possible and would even incentivese it's prisoners to contact their friends and family back in Russia in masse to testify against the Moscow regime and thus incentives more Russian soldiers to to give up.

It still would be very psy-oped but probably more humane than what ever happens to POWs behind closed doors.

 

[Abowaffen]

Is it too much of a fantasy that Western nations could make like a whole propaganda and migration initiative where it spreads messages likes this and then funnels prisoners of war out of the whole region into something like a specialized migrant camp somewhere within EU. (I mean they already have the infrastructure and I'd still argue this is better than Somali migrants)

Then because of the propaganda incentives those would be as humane as realistically possible and would even incentivese it's prisoners to contact their friends and family back in Russia in masse to testify against the Moscow regime and thus incentives more Russian soldiers to to give up.

It still would be very psy-oped but probably more humane than what ever happens to POWs behind closed doors.

Iirc having any prisoner talk on camera to say anything more than their name is a warcrime (albeit a minor one). We also don't want to incentivise Russia to do something similar, such as torturing Ukie POWs to make them spew propaganda. (Russia already does this, but we don't want them to do it even more.)

Also, Russian POWs are treated fine, they watch TV all day and play with arts and crafts. International aid groups monitor those places heavily.

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

If the US threw in, it wouldn't even get to boots on the ground. Russia's AAD network wouldn't have stood more than a week before they started this shit, and has been rotted out by two years of fighting Ukraine. I bet F-15s wouldn't even need ECM pods to bomb Moscow today.

I was thinking about it the other day. There's nothing Russia can really do against Western capabilities if it comes to that, objectively speaking. Just based on sheer numbers alone, forget quality. If US decided to annihilate Russia's air force and military bases, the only possible recourse would be the red button, which coincidentally is also a suicide button.
I grew out of illusions about Russia's military might well before this war. Most Russians just don't understand the sheer scale of America's military, not even counting allies and their capacity to scale up if situation demands, with how rich they are (compared to Russia). We will never outgun nor outspend the West, not if they get serious.
Putin should've chosen diplomacy.

 

[Snekposter]

No one, I mean literally no one except for the Estonians (somefuckinghow) , was ready for the fact that Ukraine had actually listened to the green berrets and implemented their suggestions.

After 2014 happened Barack Obama sent the Green Berets to Estonia to train them in how to counter Little Green Man tactics. So, they got the same training Ukraine did, and probably had back channels as a result.

 

[Foltest]

Iirc having any prisoner talk on camera to say anything more than their name is a warcrime (albeit a minor one). We also don't want to incentivise Russia to do something similar, such as torturing Ukie POWs to make them spew propaganda. (Russia already does this, but we don't want them to do it even more.)

Also, Russian POWs are treated fine, they watch TV all day and play with arts and crafts. International aid groups monitor those places heavily.

Compare to how Russia treat their Ukranian POW, where up to 95% show sign of being tortured.

 

[Fatsuit Shinji]

After 2014 happened Barack Obama sent the Green Berets to Estonia to train them in how to counter Little Green Man tactics. So, they got the same training Ukraine did, and probably had back channels as a result.

Got a source for this? Seeing how Obama gave Putin the okay to grab Crimea with his Little Green Man. In addition to Obama previous color revolutioning U.S. North African allies into anti-American Islamic shitholes during his first term.

 

[AncientPhosphur]

Mind you Putin openly admitted they were Russian army on national TV 2 months after Crimea was reunified with Russia.

https://ria.ru/20140516/1007988002.html
Apparently RIA Novosti is controlled by the West and NATO

Sir that post was in the SMO thread not this one. Let me larp as a vatnik high off farts and cheap vodka in the correct containment thread for my amusement

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

I haven't seen anything about this elsewhere yet, but wouldn't surprise me if true:

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Tl;dr: Putin allegedly fired Gerasimov & replaced him with old KGB/FSB hack Alexander Bortnikov, then 24hrs later replaced Bortnikov with a guy named Dyumin who is the former head of the FSO (Russian Secret Service).

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Imagine the complete lack of surprise:

Sounds like the green-text needs to be updated, with US troops running out of water while fighting Mexico.

 

[Optimus Prime]

Putin should've chosen diplomacy.

Putin should have spent more time cleaning up the Russian armed of its rampant corruption, embezzlement, and general complacency. But he never would have because he himself is part of that system. His objective with Ukraine was based entirely on speed and the false assumption Kiev would capitulate immediately, so by the time any international forces like NATO were able to mobilize, Russia would already have annexed Ukraine like Crimea and there would be nothing anybody could do about it.

At this point, Putin really isn't able to win anything except some salve to his ego about rebuilding a small part of his beloved USSR. There's literally no reason for Russia to still fight this pointless war. I also suspect the only reason his cronies haven't tried making a move against him is they're getting kickbacks from military contractors to keep the war going as long as possible.

 

[AncientPhosphur]

Russia really wasted their entire Soviet heritage military in this gambit. All those classic pieces just gone. Former Warsaw bloc countries did too but they at least got upgrades. And if the OSINT stuff is accurate even their modern stuff is unreplaceable with sanctions.

At this point, Putin really isn't able to win anything except some salve to his ego about rebuilding a small part of his beloved USSR. There's literally no reason for Russia to still fight this pointless war. I also suspect the only reason his cronies haven't tried making a move against him is they're getting kickbacks from military contractors to keep the war going as long as possible.

A result similar to the Polish-Soviet war would be the good ending for Russia at this point

 

[Phenomena]

Russia is 5x Ukraine's size, and claimed to be able to defeat NATO easily.

The Russians claimed they were the second most powerful army in the world, turns out they're the second army in Russia.

 

[CheepMeds]

Iirc having any prisoner talk on camera to say anything more than their name is a warcrime (albeit a minor one). We also don't want to incentivise Russia to do something similar, such as torturing Ukie POWs to make them spew propaganda. (Russia already does this, but we don't want them to do it even more.)

Also, Russian POWs are treated fine, they watch TV all day and play with arts and crafts. International aid groups monitor those places heavily.

Interesting, but that is not exactly what I am describing
Here is an older report from 2022 where POWs are just given a phone to voluntarily call their parents and filmed for propaganda purposes https://youtu.be/r37jds7hGBY
This is more of what I'm describing. I'm just wishing this strategy was effective at scale and be pursued if it was so.
At least I wish to plant this idea somewhere.

I don't think it even needs to be filmed for western public, I like to believe it would be enough of an effect for the Russian population to be getting messages from the other side by people they actually know and trust that they aren't being fed to the pigs or forcibly trooned out.