I'd be interested in your reasoning for this, if you're willing to expound on it.
I'm myself skeptical about it possibly starting before the end of SMO, but I will elaborate on everything else.
The three main reasons I believe the conflict is now inevitable are
de-facto priviliged position of Caucasian minorities in the country, the ever-growing size of their personal military and
radical Islamisation of Northern Caucasus in general.
Regarding the first aspect
: there're ethnic conflicts happening constantly in the country involving the Caucasians and their absolute niggerish behavior in Russian territories because of the sense of impunity and superiority the state has given to them. A mind-boggling amount of money has been funneled over the course of decades into those territories. For example, have a load of
these news from this June (articles in Russian): over 731
billion rubles have been allocated to the region from the federal budget in 2023
alone, with about 6
trillion (!!!) rubles planned for investment until 2030.
In comparison, Crimea in 2022 alone has received a "record" sum of 26 billion rubles and is planned to receive 715 billion rubles by the year 2027 in accordance to the governmental socio-economic development program.
So, we have established that t
here's a federal district in Russia that's getting some
unforgivable amounts of money despite a particular region there
carrying out a genocide of Russians just two decades ago.
And they return the favor exactly how one would expect they would: by constantly picking fights with Russians and doing late night lezginka dances involving illegal firearms in Russian cities.
Absolutely uncivilised, niggerish behavior. Thankfully the locals return the favour from time to time:
Regarding the second aspect, just have a look at the following footage.
Everything in this fake bravado tik-tok footage, all of the guns, ammo and vehicles was paid for by Russian taxpayers (these are subsidized regions we're talking about). They are de-jure categorized as "spetsnaz", operating outside of MoD sphere of influence (as far as I understand, correct me here if I'm wrong), and can be de-facto categorized as mercs because they're in direct response to Kadyrov's cronies.
Now here's the thing about Akhmat: like I already said, they aren't actively engaged in combat, preferring to sit in the Nth lines of defense as those dumb ruskies from primarily Russian divisions die in a war that chechens personally don't feel involved in at all. What do they do in that spare time? Why, terrorize the populace of the recently freed and "old" territories, pick fights with military police, actual soldiers and law enforcement and overall constantly hinder the war efforts, of course.
Also take note of their looks: feels a bit odd that these "warriors" are dressed like 90s gang members, doesn't it?
As such we have made it clear that not only have these wahhabi beards
been overfed with gibs for years to the point of growing
more brazen, arrogant and violent than ever, they have now been also
extensively armed and
left to their own devices without actually being forced to, you know, fight in a war.
This war will be over sooner or later. How does our government plan to disarm these monkeys post factum, exactly?..
All of the above sounds like a recipe for disaster to me. Now they only need a reason, perhaps not even a very significant one, to use those guns against those that wronged them. That reason after the SMO is over might be unwillingless to give muh guns and vehicles up or the sudden reduction of military gibs. However, what I foresee happening is most likely the government simply paying even more money to this now purpose-less militia in order to keep the fragile peace. Which is where we get to the third and last aspect...
The radical Islamisation and arabisation of Northern Caucasus. This reason needs no further introduction:
anti-Jewish airport pogrom,
that synagogue terrorist attack, you fucking name it. This will most likely be the actual reason for shit hitting the fan. And to anyone that might be wondering: "but weren't those republics like ALWAYS muslim??", I invite you compare the following footage of Makhachkala back in the soviet times and now:
Back in the 90s, dagestanis fought ALONGSIDE us against the Wahhabi terrorist cancer. As it stands now though, the
moderate and normal dagis are literally
oppressed by the sassy
radicalised hijab-wearing
minority that again, our government has no interest and/or political will to clear out and just l
ets this arabic cancer fester in the republic. It's an open question who exactly will take over the republic and who they will side with when the war breaks out.
To summarize: we have a genocidal republic full of insolent, violent, priviliged and constantly radicalising muslims with no sense of accountability for anything that had been fed colossally huge gibs for decades now receive free armaments out of thin air in return for tik-tok videos and lose any last bit of humbleness, with fellow radicals slowly but surely taking over the neighboring republic. Surely nothing wrong could come out of that!
