Hurricane Milton

[RandomTwitterGuy]

IF you die to Hurrican named fucking Milton, you are a bitch.

 

[Sithis]

Holy shit, they're so desperate to stop Orange Man they're firing a cat 5 at Mar a Lago?

 

[Patrick Not-Star]

IF you die to Hurrican named fucking Milton, you are a bitch.

 

[SwanSwanson]

The situation with Katrina and Helene just proves that America doesn't care about anyone. White or black.

 

[AMHOLIO]

And this is all I can think about:

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

That's all the simulation runs they have? Not good. They need more to get a more continuous distribution, otherwise evacuation recommendations will be wrong.

I mean, looking at the paths already there, I wouldn't bet on a Tampa miss.

I would. Hurricanes don't make landfall in Tampa Bay because of the winds and currents. I mean it's possible but it's happened very few times in recorded history.

The situation with Katrina and Helene just proves that America doesn't care about anyone. White or black.

They care about Israelis, do they count as white?

 

[Quijibo69]

Should I be scared?

 

[one man party]

Should I be scared?

If Frankie MacDonald is yelling about your general area, you should probably be concerned.

 

[Ughubughughughughughghlug]

WTF is wrong with this season. What is with all these Hurricanes blowing in from the West. The Superstitious side of me is saying that all these wild storms in the month of October means the leadership of the nation has angered heaven, and as we approach the night of Samhain when the veil between this world and the fae grows weakest, the wrath of heaven becomes more pronounced.

But that is just silly talk.

I had a dream a day or two before Trump's first assassination attempt that the planets were all hanging in the sky, malevolent and huge, above the Earth, like they were staring down at it. I later interpreted it as the gathering of the Heavenly Host and a sign that human affairs have become so out of order that there is grave danger.

I initially considered if the hurricane may have had a place in that. But it hit the exact opposite of the people that you'd expect. It was a bullet right into the Evangelical and socially conservative/populist heart of the Eastern US. I accepted it for what it is: a mystery. Nobody can know why these things happen.

 

[CFC-12]

Gulf of Mexico is pretty toasty for this time of year, even after Helene:

The entire Gulf is warmer than normal, essentially. That's a hell of a lot of energy for that storm to absorb before it hits. Wouldn't be surprised if it gets into cat4 territory before landfall. Tampa's about to get fucked man.

 

[Lian Xing]

Spoiler: 10/6 400 CDT Forecaster Discussion

000
WTNT44 KNHC 060848
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Milton Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Satellite imagery this morning suggests that Milton is getting
better organized, with the central dense overcast getting larger
and some outer banding forming in the western semicircle.
Satellite intensity estimates currently range between 30-45 kt, and
based on this and the increasing organization the initial intensity
is set at 45 kt. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently
enroute to investigate Milton.

Milton has turned eastward with the initial motion of 090/4 kt.
Westerly flow on the south side of a shortwave trough over the
northern Gulf of Mexico should steer the storm generally eastward
during the next 36-48 h. After that, a second trough moving over
the northwestern Gulf should cause the storm to turn northeastward
toward the Florida Peninsula at a faster forward speed. While the
track guidance is generally in good agreement on this scenario,
there remains some spread in both the track and forward speed, so it
is too early to specify which portions of the Florida Peninsula will
get the worst impacts. After crossing Florida, Milton should turn
eastward over the Atlantic in the mid-latitude westerly flow. The
new forecast track is nudged a little south of the previous track
and lies between the GFS and ECMWF models. It should be noted that
the average NHC track error at day 4 is around 150 miles.
Therefore, users are reminded to not focus on the exact track.

The intensity forecast has a lot of complexities. First, Milton is a
small cyclone, and such systems can both strengthen and weaken very
rapidly. Second, while the cyclone is going to be in a favorable
environment through about 60 h, it will encounter strong shear and
dry air entrainment after that time. Third, the proximity of a
frontal system over the northern Gulf of Mexico and Florida suggests
the possibility that Milton will undergo extratropical transition at
some point during the forecast period. The intensity guidance
continues to show a significant spread in the forecast peak
intensity in 60-72 h, with possibilities ranging from category 1 to
category 5 strength. Also, some of the intensity guidance forecasts
Milton to rapidly weaken over water after peak intensity, while
other models suggest the storm will only weaken slightly. The new
intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and shows
Milton reaching a peak intensity of 105 kt at 72 h. However, this is
below the intensity consensus, and it would not be surprising if the
storm gets stronger. Milton is expected to weaken and start
extratropical transition while over Florida, with the transition
completed by 120 h.

Regardless of the details, there is increasing confidence that a
powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting
portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week.
Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen
to local officials.


Key Messages:
1. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves
eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or
near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula mid week. Hurricane Watches could be issued as
early as late today for portions of Florida.

2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and
wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these
areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow
any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to
the forecast.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday
and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly
related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday
night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal
flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 23.0N 94.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 23.0N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 22.9N 92.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 22.9N 91.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 23.4N 89.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 24.5N 87.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 26.0N 85.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 29.0N 80.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 31.0N 74.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

[MadStan]

Homeowners in Florida are over the next few years going to get slaughtered with the premiums that are already slaughtering them. How the state of going to keep alive the insurance fund of last resort is going to become an impossible balancing act.

 

[High-Fructose Corn Syrup]

Good, I hate Tampa.

 

[Disaffected Coyote]

This is Tropical Storm Milton between 11;00am EST and 11:30am EST.


Mesoscale - IR clean longwave

This is a link to the site that has the GOES satellite images. - https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/index.php

 

[Sithis]

Good, I hate Tampa.

Tampa and Hillsborough in general sucks but it's depressing that Caladesi Island and some other nice spots are probably going to disappear after this. Of course idk, a big hurricane was responsible for creating it in the first place, so maybe some other part of the Pinellas peninsula will get to have their chance to split off from the rest of the state and become the next state beach park.

 

[thhrang]

 

[Anonitolia]

I hate how the "best case scenario" here is a category 2 storm that hits almost a third of Florida. Even if it's just one model, it makes me sick to my stomach.

And it's already hitting places that Helene has been through with its center. Not any that Helene has ravaged, per-se, more loosened-up if you will. Seriously concerned that this is going to be much worse than people are predicting solely because I don't see anyone accounting for Helene's effects on the areas Milton is threatening.

And there's only three days to prepare for this, max. While some people are still busy with Helene cleanup. Fuck, man.

 

[Velanna]

This takes me back to the hurricane season of 2024, where we had like 4 systems hit in a month.

 

[Sithis]

I hate how the "best case scenario" here is a category 2 storm that hits almost a third of Florida. Even if it's just one model, it makes me sick to my stomach.

And it's already hitting places that Helene has been through with its center. Not any that Helene has ravaged, per-se, more loosened-up if you will. Seriously concerned that this is going to be much worse than people are predicting solely because I don't see anyone accounting for Helene's effects on the areas Milton is threatening.

And there's only three days to prepare for this, max. While some people are still busy with Helene cleanup. Fuck, man.

The good thing seems to be that the models Ryan is showing indicate it will lose strength a lot faster than Helene. The coastal areas in Florida are for sure going to get flooded, but if this thing had the same chutzpah Helene did and maintained that Cat 4/5 strength it's predicted to gain all the way across the peninsula it would be one of if not the worst storms to ever land a direct hit on the state, there is no real way to prepare for 182 mph winds.

Also Florida is a sandbar so the waters will recede as quickly as they flood in, some of the smaller islands might be over washed and disappear. Unironically any Florida kiwis living along the west coast, once you return from evacuation or emerge from your bunker, go treasure hunting along the beaches. A lot of Spanish treasure ships went down over a course of a few hundred years and the gulf is the rumored resting spot for several of the largest that were hit by hurricanes on their return trips. Gold coins and other shit routinely wash up in some spots of the state and I would reckon that a storm as strong as this churning right though that shipping path will likely cause the gulf to spit out some loot.

 

[MadStan]

I feel bad for Floridians - except, the Church of Scientology in Clearwater (may they all drown).

Tampa would be real sad to see the Church of Scientology decimated...yep...real crying shame that would be.