Hurricane Milton

I'm looking for realistic info on projections for Milton, but a lot of what I'm seeing from a search feels alarmist or click bait.

Where can I get good info? Ps. Friends and family who are both from Naples evacuated north last night, got gas thank God and are on the road atm.

I hate hurricanes.
 
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Gentlemen... the election year is upon us. It is time we reaped the benefits of our hard work. Activate the Doomsday Device.

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*ominous mouse click*
"...why did the app freeze?"
"did it work?"
"I dunno, I clicked create storm, but it just turned gray and the little circle keeps spinning."
"Our internet cut out."
"Is the giant blue sphere not live?"
"No, it's just there to look ominous."
"Wait, that's it's only purpose!? I can't see my notes."
"Oh there we go... Oh. Oops. We accidentally sent it toward Tampa instead of hitting North Carolina again."
"WHAT!? My family and I were going to go to Disney in a month!"
"Can you... like steer it?"
"No, it's a hurricane. Best case scenario you can kinda maybe predict where it'll go when you first form it."

"...well fuck, this was a terrible idea."
 
I'm not willing to believe in weather control, it's too ridiculous. The force and energy required to generate a tropical storm that becomes a hurricane is so ridiculous and far in excess of anything humanity is capable of, if the government really wanted to fuck with people by inflicting natural disasters, I reckon they would probably start fucking with the volcano under Yellowstone.
 
the only question in my mind is if the feds are going to ignore this disaster too like with NC or they'll just help orlando and Tampa and ignore all the red counties. election is in a month, deciding who still has power or a place to vote for it might be something they do if they think they can turn florida.
 
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

Sequences of microwave images and recent Hurricane Hunter
observations suggest that Milton completed an eyewall replacement
overnight, and the new eyewall has contracted down from 22 n mi to
12 nm in diameter. However, it does not appear that the hurricane
weakened much after the eyewall replacement, and it could have
rebounded with the outer eyewall contraction. A dropsonde released
by the NOAA P-3 in the northeastern eyewall recently measured an
average wind of 156 kt in the lowest 150 m of the sounding, which
equates to an intensity of 130 kt. The latest pressure reported by
the planes is 929 mb.

The recent aircraft fixes show that Milton has turned a bit
leftward and is moving toward the east-northeast (065/8 kt).
Milton is forecast to turn northeastward and begin accelerating
later today as it moves between a trough digging into the Gulf of
Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles. The track guidance
is honed in on a landfall along the west-central coast of Florida
sometime Wednesday night. However, it is critical to remember that
even at 36-48 hours away, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an
average of 60-70 n mi, which means we still can't pinpoint an exact
landfall location, especially if the hurricane wobbles as it
approaches the coast. After landfall, Milton is forecast to cross
Florida and emerge over the Atlantic waters on Thursday.

Milton is expected to maintain major hurricane strength while it
moves across the Gulf of Mexico and approaches the west coast of
Florida. Stronger vertical shear is expected to set in about 24
hours, but even if this causes some weakening, it will not be
enough to keep Milton from being an extremely dangerous hurricane
when it reaches shore. Additionally, the first stages of
extratropical transition may be just underway as Milton is reaching
the coast, which could impart some baroclinic energy and slow the
rate of weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the top
end of the model envelope, which includes the GFS and ECMWF models,
since these models should have a better handle on a potential
positive trough interaction.

Milton's wind field is expected to expand as it approaches Florida.
In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and
tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it
makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm
surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast
cone. It is worth emphasizing that this is a very serious situation
and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their
local emergency management officials. Evacuations and other
preparations should be completed today. Milton has the potential to
be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central
Florida.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm
surge with destructive waves are expected across portions of the
northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today.

2. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest
inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the
west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the
Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening
situation, and you should evacuate today if ordered by local
officials. There will likely not be enough time to wait to leave on
Wednesday.

3. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida
Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in
gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula.
Preparations to protect life and property, and to be ready for
long-duration power outages, should be complete by tonight.

4. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
brings the risk of life-threatening flash and urban flooding along
with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where
coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood
threat.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 22.7N 88.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 23.6N 87.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 25.2N 85.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 26.8N 83.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 28.1N 81.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/0000Z 29.1N 78.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 11/1200Z 29.7N 74.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/1200Z 30.4N 67.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1200Z 31.8N 60.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN
 
23/24 had an El Nino event that ended not too long ago. Keep in mind that global climate and ocean currents are fairly poorly understood, everything affects everything else and sometimes in unexpected ways. There's no grand mystery here it's a bad hurricane season. They happen sometimes. 20ish years ago the same kind of thing happened for the east coast; a bunch of hurricanes
People act like a couple degrees warmer on the ocean surface is enough to cause this shit more frequently. Paleotempestology has shown this shit has happened for thousands of years and even millions of years. Upswings and downswings in the number of hurricanes per year and intensity. It's not the result of human climate change but the shit that's happening thousands of miles below the earth's core and the sun's peak intensities and its ever-growing brightness.
 
@Lian Xing They really could have shortened that to, shits fucked get out.
That's the forecast discussion. It a summary of why and how the forecaster came to the determination. It isn't really meant for layman public consumption. The public advisories are the vehicle to disseminate information to the masses. We have multiple weather autists in the thread; I am posting it for discussion with them.
 
if your in florida and your not in an evacuation zone, consider contacting shelters. many are looking for emergancy fosters.
Or get to high ground, that usually helps with flooding from heavy rain that's coming.

I was there. I saw the blueprints, the satellites, the HAARP machines they set up all over the place. They don’t just monitor the weather, they manipulate it. They trigger storms, earthquakes, droughts—it’s all part of their global chess game. Why do you think certain places get hit year after year while others just stay calm? It’s strategic. The whole East Coast, New Orleans—do you remember Katrina? That wasn’t an accident. That was them, dialing it up to test their control.

And they can target anyone—anywhere. All they need is the right atmospheric pressure and boom—a category 5 right on your doorstep. They’re using hurricanes as cover for mass relocations, for military cleanups, for silencing enemies. People go missing during these 'natural disasters' all the time. Ever wonder why?

I’m telling you, this is real. They’ve been running simulations for decades, using weather as a weapon, and they hide it behind this veil of randomness. The CIA knows I’m talking. They’re going to come after me, but you need to know. They can control the very sky above your head. They’re playing God, and no one’s stopping them.
Counterpoint:
 
I remember when Hurricane Ian hit Fort Myers, the damage looked so horrendously pronounced many areas looked like a warzone. Just how many years of neglect does it take before more than half of the United States would look like something like Kansas City portrayed in The Day After? I honestly predict Tampa would have it's Major Hurricane Moment with damage on par of that to Hurricane Katrina.
 
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