Hurricane Milton

[Deo_Terra]

So, hear me out. What if you just nuke it?

It doesn’t work sadly it just makes it radioactive.

 

[MarvinTheParanoidAndroid]

I've been lurking since I've created my account but I feel compelled to post as I'm intensely worried for my mom who lives just outside of Tampa. We've pleaded and yelled at her to head up towards Orlando which, while not that much better, is safer than direct 10+ ft flood zone. She refused to go with my grandparents who lived right around the corner from her up there for whatever God forsaken reason.

She's going to scold the hurricane to go back to it's room since it's grounded.

 

[Lian Xing]

So, hear me out. What if you just nuke it?

We have been through this. The evaporative energy alone is more than every single atomic and hydrogen bomb ever made, combined. Mother Nature is a harsh mistress, and man has no power over her.

 

[NSA Intern]

From the inside of a recent survey flight through Milton.

View attachment 6500517

I love that we live in an age where you can see what shit like this looks like without having to be in it yourself

 

[CFC-12]

So, hear me out. What if you just nuke it?

The storm would continue more or less unhindered, except now you get the added benefit of a shitload of radioactive isotopes being spread across the gulf of Mexico and central Florida.

Which would be pretty funny

 

[mindlessobserver]

Source
Disney World is Closing for Milton

TOTAL MOUSE DEATH

 

[AnotherPleb]

Basically any time a major event happens I go straight to the farms and not MSM. It's sad and hilarious that Null has accidentally created a more reliable news source than professional journalists, and I hope he understands how much we value that.

Null promoted a culture of getting shit right and everyone that's been here long enough knows it. That makes this site amazing for news.

 

[Sithis]

So has he officially regained cat 5 status? Has the wind shear outlook changed at all or is he still expected to lose some steam? I have a feeling that even as a cat 3 this thing would pack a wallop.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

He's been absolutely stunning in the latest images.

View attachment 6500571View attachment 6500574

only 30 mins of elapsed time on that gif, too. If I'm reading it right? That's some crazy movement

 

[Lian Xing]

except now you get the added benefit of a shitload of radioactive isotopes being spread across the gulf of Mexico and central Florida.

Air bursts are relative clean. It would be more radioactive than doing nothing, but it wouldn’t be the end of the world.

 

[a hapless toad]

Pressure's dropped again...

Spoiler: Still Cat 4 for now...

000
WTNT34 KNHC 081742
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
100 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT MILTON'S INTENSITY
HAS REBOUNDED...
...TODAY IS THE LAST FULL DAY FOR FLORIDA RESIDENTS TO GET THEIR
FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 88.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee
River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* East coast of Florida from Port Canaveral northward to the mouth
of the St. Mary's River, including the St. Johns River.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line
northward to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Canaveral to Sebastian Inlet
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Mary's River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County
Line to Flamingo
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Mary's River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the
St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island,
the Abacos, and Bimini.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 88.2 West. Although Milton has
been wobbling during the past few hours, its longer-term motion is
toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin
later today and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track,
the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and
approach the west-central coast of Florida through Wednesday. The
center is likely to make landfall along the west-central coast of
Florida on Wednesday night, and move east-northeastward across
central Florida through Thursday.

Aircraft reconnaissance data and satellite images indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250 km/h)
with higher gusts. Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in
intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely
dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 923 mb
(27.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Port Canaveral, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the
risk of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with
moderate to major river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals 2 to 4 inches across the
Florida Keys through Thursday.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals
around 6 inches, are expected across northern portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue in the
warning areas in Mexico today.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area
across Florida beginning late Wednesday through early Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area
on the west coast of Florida Wednesday morning, spreading across
the peninsula and reaching the east coast Wednesday evening.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
on the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the extreme northwestern
Bahamas on Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern
Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through Wednesday
night.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

Edit: Sorry for late, I got distracted and forgot about time zones.

 

[PointOfNoReturnPoint]

if two people are telling you you're going to die, who would YOU trust more? some boomer woman or a futuristic hologram girl? i know who i'd pick

Kinda depends on the situation.

 

[Equal Rights for Androids]

So has he officially regained cat 5 status? Has the wind shear outlook changed at all or is he still expected to lose some steam? I have a feeling that even as a cat 3 this thing would pack a wallop.

Yes. His winds are back at cat 5 after nightfall passed. Last check was literally TWO MPH below cat5. Confirmation is occurring rn
He's also going off course by a large margin.

 

[ATI Escapee]

The rotation around the eye is very rapid right now. I would be surprised if it's not a cat 5 currently.

View attachment 6500350View attachment 6500349

So tight and well formed. The Platonic Hurricane.

 

[PyrrhicRustle]

So has he officially regained cat 5 status? Has the wind shear outlook changed at all or is he still expected to lose some steam? I have a feeling that even as a cat 3 this thing would pack a wallop.

Planes going back to take measurements in the next few minutes.

 

[#FF0000]

Advanced Dvorak Technique nearly has it below 900mb, holy shit.

 

[Deo_Terra]

So has he officially regained cat 5 status? Has the wind shear outlook changed at all or is he still expected to lose some steam? I have a feeling that even as a cat 3 this thing would pack a wallop.

We aren’t hitting the wind shear til later so it’s still expected to end up as a cat 3 at landfall but that was always the case the issue isn’t really how fast the wind is going to be at landfall it’s all the water this hurricane is dragging with it to shore which is going to be the deadliest thing with Milton since it’s hitting nearby to Tampa.

 

[Lian Xing]

Spoiler: Oct. 8, 1600 CDT Forecast Discussion

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters found that Milton's central
pressure had fallen to 923 mb in the last pass they made through
the eye a few hours ago. The satellite presentation has improved
since that time, with a thick ring of cold cloud tops surrounding a
10-mile-wide eye. This pattern yielded a T7.0/140 kt from TAFB,
with several of the objective satellite estimates between 140 and
145 kt. Milton has again become a category 5 hurricane, with
maximum winds estimated to be 145 kt. Another Air Force mission is
entering Milton as we speak.

Milton wobbled a bit to the southeast today, but the longer-term
12-hour motion is east-northeastward (075/8 kt). Milton is forecast
to turn northeastward and begin accelerating later today as it moves
between a trough digging into the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near
the Greater Antilles. Because of the wobble, the track guidance
has been initialized a bit to the south of where many of the raw
model fields think the hurricane was centered at 1800 UTC, and this
has caused the entire guidance envelope to shift a bit south on
this cycle. It is still critical to remember that even at 36 hours
(around the time of potential landfall), NHC's track forecasts
can be off by an average of 60 n mi, which means we still can't
pinpoint an exact landfall location, especially if additional
wobbles occur in the short term. After landfall, Milton is
forecast to cross Florida and emerge over the Atlantic waters on
Thursday.

Milton is expected to maintain major hurricane strength while it
moves across the Gulf of Mexico and approaches the west coast of
Florida. Stronger vertical shear is expected to increase in about
24 hours, but even if this causes some weakening, it will likely not
be enough to keep Milton from being an extremely dangerous hurricane
when it reaches shore. Additionally, the first stages of
extratropical transition may be just underway as Milton is reaching
the coast, which could impart some baroclinic energy and slow the
rate of weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the top
end of the model envelope, which includes the GFS and ECMWF models,
since these models should have a better handle on a potential
positive trough interaction.

Milton's wind field is expected to expand as it approaches Florida.
In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and
tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it
makes landfall. In addition, the stronger-than-normal winds could
occur on the northwest/back side of the storm since Milton will be
interacting with a frontal boundary and beginning extratropical
transition. Damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy
rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. This is a
very serious situation and residents in Florida should closely
follow orders from their local emergency management officials.
Evacuations and other preparations should be completed today.
Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive
hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.


Key Messages:

1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest
inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the
west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the
Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening
situation, and you should evacuate today if ordered by local
officials. There will likely not be enough time to wait to leave on
Wednesday.

2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida
Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in
gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula.
Preparations to protect life and property, including being ready for
long-duration power outages, should be complete by tonight.

3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban
flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in
areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the
overall flood threat.

4. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge with
destructive waves will continue across portions of the northern
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 22.7N 87.5W 145 KT 165 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 23.8N 86.4W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 25.6N 84.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 27.2N 82.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 28.1N 80.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/0600Z 28.6N 77.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 11/1800Z 29.0N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/1800Z 30.6N 68.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1800Z 31.8N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN

 

[Equal Rights for Androids]

What the fuck. It was supposed to have weakened, wasn't it??

Still over ocean so he's not gonna weaken until he's near land. He rebuilt his eyewall so he's more resistant to shear

MILTON IS CAT 5 CONFIRMED 165MPH WINDS JUST NOW

It's crazy just how large these waves are. You look at the buoy cams on the ocean. All day, the horizon is flat and waves look like nothing more than tiny waves on the beach. But when the hurricane came, you see the horizon looking lumpy and you can see giant, well formed ways. These are giant fucking waves. Over 30 ft.

 

[CFC-12]

So has he officially regained cat 5 status? Has the wind shear outlook changed at all or is he still expected to lose some steam? I have a feeling that even as a cat 3 this thing would pack a wallop.

LET'S GOOOOOOOOO