Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[SaidNoOneEver]

Just throwing in my 2 cents, but I really don't see any reason for Trump to stop supporting Ukraine. The whole SMO/SVO is a great diplomatic and strategic victory for the US as it is harming Russia, it is also distancing Ukraine from it and cementing American control over Europe. Stopping to support it would be a extremely poor choice and a missed opportunity as it would possibly lead to a normalization of relations between Europe and Russia, which would decrease the currently increasing reliance of Europe upon the US and might loosen the noose around the collective European necks.

How has any of this harmed Russia? IMO this has made them stronger than they've been in my lifetime.

 

[LordOfZhbagva]

How has any of this harmed Russia? IMO this has made them stronger than they've been in my lifetime.

Let's not pretend that this isn't a costly war. And let's not pretend that the Russians and Ukrainians were not very close before this war and that this war has distanced them, at least for as long as this generation lives. And let's not pretend that Russia benefitted from having access to a European market.

 

[SaidNoOneEver]

Let's not pretend that this isn't a costly war. And let's not pretend that the Russians and Ukrainians were not very close before this war and that this war has distanced them, at least for as long as this generation lives. And let's not pretend that Russia benefitted from having access to a European market.

Russia will have gained far more than it has lost economically when this is over.

 

[Procopius]

Even if Russia is ready to reconcile with Europe, I don't see the same happening on the other side. Meloni's about the only important leader who's not foaming at the mouth to start WW3. Just from today's papers you can see what Britain, France and Germany think:


Is a big attack on the way? Russia just demonstrated its ability to lay down a smokescreen

Ukrainians being Ukrainians

Peskov being Peskov

 

[warhammerautist]

Just throwing in my 2 cents, but I really don't see any reason for Trump to stop supporting Ukraine.

Than tell his own son to shut up instead of gloating on social media a few times about cutting aid to Ukraine.

 

[Yak-130 Mitten]

And let's not pretend that the Russians and Ukrainians were not very close before this war and that this war has distanced them,

Lol
Lmao even

you know fuck all about the entire thing it appears. Another concerned troll?

 

[Overly Serious]

Russia will have gained far more than it has lost economically when this is over.

Depends when it is over. Right now there have been benefits as well as costs. The benefits are that it's provided the basis for Putin to purge a lot of corruption and useless people from the military and Russia's own MIC. It's also lit a fire under efforts to produce an alternative to SWIFT and for countries to try and distance themselves from the dollar. All of this is likely positives for Russia. But Russia also had to prepare for this war for best part of a decade building up a war chest. The war is costing it a lot. And even if the sanctions are not remotely dissuading Russia from its course, they still matter and harm Russia economically. (Also Europe, but Washington gains from that as industry and capital flee to the USA).

A little bit of autarky never hurt anybody and Russian industry probably gets a bit of a boost in some ways as well. But long term this sort of economic exertion will hurt Russia. There's a difference between being tired because you've had a good workout and being exhausted because you're not able to rest.

And the point about relations with its neighbour is valid. Ukraine had a Russophobic Nazi problem but most Ukranians and most Russians got on. Indeed, barring where some borders were drawn sixty years ago, they were the same people in much of the region. That has been damaged, again, to Washington's satisfaction. It can take a long time for such damage to heal. Especially when you have foreign interests continuing to pour money into keeping those wounds open.

I don't agree Russia will have "gained far more". It will have gained in some ways. Including in territory which is probably the gain it cares least about. But it will still have lost a lot. And dead sons, brothers, fathers don't come back to life.

 

[Unarmed Gunman]

Trump may cut off support for Ukraine, but he's a controlled muppet of Israel and as such, is loading up his administration with anti-Iranian hawks to go along with the anti-Chinese hawks. Since those are two of Russia's most important allies, how will that alignment impact US/Russia relations in his administration?

 

[LatinasAreTheFuture]

How capable are those Russian 5th generation aircraft? Apparently they are somewhat competitive but will probably get knocked out by our (American) planes and pilots?

 

[porkWellington]

Russia needs to quit while they're ahead. Trump wants to be a peacemaker and will likely give Russia a favorable off-ramp. Quitting sooner gives them a chance to draw defendable borders while returning bad land in return for easing of sanctions. It's stealing someone's lunch, eating the best parts, and selling the scraps back.

Holding up the process could put NATO in a position where they feel they must force Russia to the table by further increasing sanctions, unshackling what Ukraine can do with the equipment, and having pro-NATO mercenaries suddenly appear to help Ukraine. Russia's war economy has been resilient but it won't last forever and China isn't going to prop up Russia if they become a liability in the long-term.

 

[jje100010001]

Russia needs to quit while they're ahead. Trump wants to be a peacemaker and will likely give Russia a favorable off-ramp. Quitting sooner gives them a chance to draw defendable borders while returning bad land in return for easing of sanctions. It's stealing someone's lunch, eating the best parts, and selling the scraps back.

Holding up the process could put NATO in a position where they feel they must force Russia to the table by further increasing sanctions, unshackling what Ukraine can do with the equipment, and having pro-NATO mercenaries suddenly appear to help Ukraine. Russia's war economy has been resilient but it won't last forever and China isn't going to prop up Russia if they become a liability in the long-term.

It's not about land, it's about preventing NATO and its missiles from becoming stationed in Ukraine, which is essentially game over for Russian missile defenses since those missiles will reach major Russian cities in minutes. As long as that remains a possibility, the war will continue.

This is why Russia was completely content to leave Ukraine be for decades until Maidan flipped its government to the globohomo side, and also why it was so hesitant to take on the Donbass even when it took Crimea.

 

[Procopius]

How capable are those Russian 5th generation aircraft? Apparently they are somewhat competitive but will probably get knocked out by our (American) planes and pilots?

Does it matter nowadays? Russian air defence is so good that there have been next to no dog fights in this war. Planes don't get that close to each other nowadays; I remember reports of one plane being taken out at a distance of 200km. On top of that near real-time surveillance has led to planes being kinzhaled while they load up with bombs, and human intelligence that, as rumour has it, had a couple of the legendary Ukrainian F-16s blown to pieces before the mechanics could get them out of the crates they had been shipped to Ukraine in.

But if you want to see one in action, here's a video of the Su-57 taken a couple of days ago at an airshow in China that I saw on Simplicius' latest blog.

Russia needs to quit while they're ahead. Trump wants to be a peacemaker and will likely give Russia a favorable off-ramp.

What does Trump have to offer? Russia is winning, NATO is running out of weapons to send and Ukraine is running out of men to use them. Putin isn't an absolute dictator, and there are other factions in the Russian government that won't let him give up the land that thousands of Russians have died fighting for. Especially if any settlement has the appearance of giving the West a breather to rebuild and come back in ten or twenty years.

 

[There Is Light At The End]

Russians and Ukrainians were not very close before this war

you are a retard

 

[Meh123]

How capable are those Russian 5th generation aircraft? Apparently they are somewhat competitive but will probably get knocked out by our (American) planes and pilots?

In what situation?
The answer will range from "not in your dreams" to "sure"

Edit:

@There Is Light At The End
you are a retard

You might want to reread what he wrote, he basically said the polar opposite.

 

[porkWellington]

It's not about land, it's about preventing NATO and its missiles from becoming stationed in Ukraine, which is essentially game over for Russian missile defenses since those missiles will reach major Russian cities in minutes. As long as that remains a possibility, the war will continue.

This is why Russia was completely content to leave Ukraine be for decades until Maidan flipped its government to the globohomo side, and also why it was so hesitant to take on the Donbass even when it invaded Crimea before this war.

A fair point but I wouldn't be surprised if by 2050 missile launching capabilities gets to the point where NATO doesn't need to station anything in Ukraine to reliably hit Russian cities if they wanted to. What's next when the location of the missiles stops being the issue?

I do think any agreement should specifically prevent NATO from setting up defensive systems in non-NATO countries. I'm assuming if NATO sets up a system in a non-NATO country and it gets damaged by an invading country, war hawks within NATO could try and use that as an excuse to invade.

 

[Meh123]

A fair point but I wouldn't be surprised if by 2050 missile launching capabilities gets to the point where NATO doesn't need to station anything in Ukraine to reliably hit Russian cities if they wanted to. What's next when the location of the missiles stops being the issue?

I do think any agreement should specifically prevent NATO from setting up defensive systems in non-NATO countries. I'm assuming if NATO sets up a system in a non-NATO country and it gets damaged by an invading country, war hawks within NATO could try and use that as an excuse to invade.

I think the problem is not hitting major cities, but how fast can you hit major cities. Ballistic missiles can travel fast, but the target is usually half an orbit away, so it takes around 15-30 minutes for an ICBM before boom.

Stationing missiles that close will not give the russians enough time to retaliate before HQs hit, removing M from MAD.

 

[Michael Wade]

Vance doesn't sound like a suicidal Neocon.

If Americans join the party, it will escalate all the way to MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction)

People here are underestimating Trump. He's the only one who has consistently taken the threat of nuclear escalation seriously in interviews. . I don't know know what his plan is, but he's not going to escalate this war.

Nah. You'd be surprised at how bad decisions can proliferate from an entire command hierarchy that are not even remotely in touch with reality. Look no further than our favourite subject: late-war Germany. By all accounts, the Ardennes Offensive in late 1944 was absolutely a waste of manpower and materiel that the Germans could have used to stall the allies for several more months. But since Hitler (and by extension, OKH) was convinced that the Allies were just one mighty blow away from being forced to sue for peace (delusional), they went for it anyway. I bet you good money the exact same thought process happened here.

It honestly wasn't a bad a plan from a tactical level. They achieved total surprise, but strategically they didn't have the gas or manpower to sustain the thrust. It wasn't going to knock out the allies. At best maybe delay them.

 

[Kola]

It's not about land, it's about preventing NATO and its missiles from becoming stationed in Ukraine, which is essentially game over for Russian missile defenses since those missiles will reach major Russian cities in minutes.

Where did you get the idea that this was anybody's plan?

 

[Yak-130 Mitten]

How capable are those Russian 5th generation aircraft? Apparently they are somewhat competitive but will probably get knocked out by our (American) planes and pilots?

It depends.

Is your enemy aware of your potential presence? Do you have AWACS link? Does your enemy have it? Is your route free of anti-air systems? Do you have perfect recon? Is enemy EW enabled or disabled?

If all of it aligns for you, the answer is "maybe". The problem with USAF is that it has not fought against an enemy that can actually hit back (or is willing to) since vietnam, and some would argue since Korea. Everything they fought since then were either tiny militaries with barely any equipment or big, bloated militaries with aircraft outdated by thirty, forty years. Neither could put up a fight against an invader using technology that might as well be magic.

In 2003 Iraq, the worst they (USAF) could encounter were 1980s tier AA systems. For comparison, if hostilities were to break out today, half Poland and pretty much all of baltic states are in range of modern S-300 launchers. USAF aircraft would be hit before they could even acquire a target.

If a dogfight happen, you fucked up badly. But if it were to come to it, I would say Su-57 would have quite an edge over either F-22 or F-35.

 

[Rubick]

I think the problem is not hitting major cities, but how fast can you hit major cities. Ballistic missiles can travel fast, but the target is usually half an orbit away, so it takes around 15-30 minutes for an ICBM before boom.

Stationing missiles that close will not give the russians enough time to retaliate before HQs hit, removing M from MAD.

More like this endangers Russian ICBM's even if mobile ones. Thus reducing Russia's potential counterstrike.

Decapacitating the leadership won't prevent a counter launch due to Perimeter .

Edit

Also, any planned invasion of Russia would make it easier via Ukraine.