Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Useful_Mistake]

 

[Harambe]

Russia will have gained far more than it has lost economically when this is over.

I think Russia will win, but it's crazy to think the costs they've incurred for farmland and no security advantage are not probably greater than the value of the farms and farmers they got. Even ignoring casualties and the extraordinary opportunity costs, totally losing legal access to the world's richest markets and being forced to sell oil at below-market rates to poor customers is a problem.

What corruption did Russia really manage to root out? Did they get rid of their culture of promoting people into harmlessness? Did they fix the insane corruption in their procurement processes? How did they not know of this if they had spent the past decades embroiled in different conflicts?

Japan, India, and China may all break sanctions to get the cheap oil--but taking advantage of a desperate man for cheap oil is not actually helping Russia, it's prolonging their crisis. What rich states have Russia won over to make up for losing most of the world as a market? The attempts to make Russia a pariah state have met with mixed success, sure, even the US is having to get sanctions waivers to keep things stable, but they have met with a lot of success all the same.

As far as new allies and markets Russia's managed to lock in Iran (broke, getting broker, doesn't need Russia for much really) and win over North Korea (broker, somehow). Sanctions HAVE managed to impact Russia's economy significantly and in ways where they are making suboptimal tradeoffs. If the US conspires to crash energy prices and succeeds, being Uncle Vlad's Discount LNG Emporium is a strategic defeat.

Russia has not even achieved autarky in defense production, and is still not fielding its most modern armor and aviation assets in huge numbers.

It's not about land, it's about preventing NATO and its missiles from becoming stationed in Ukraine, which is essentially game over for Russian missile defenses since those missiles will reach major Russian cities in minutes. As long as that remains a possibility, the war will continue.

This is why Russia was completely content to leave Ukraine be for decades until Maidan flipped its government to the globohomo side, and also why it was so hesitant to take on the Donbass even when it took Crimea.

Russia was completely content to leave Ukraine be for decades because Russia was involved in civil wars, foreign wars of choice, and covert actions in bordering countries for large chunks of the period between 91-22. It was poorer and more corrupt and less able to fight or win a war. Russia was powerless to stop the transformation of the Warsaw Pact bloc into NATO, not disinclined.

Russian missile defense are already fucked by range. We can park subs in the Arctic. Or the Black Sea. Or the Pacific. Or the North Sea. Really anywhere, we can park a lot of fucking nukes. Turkey is in NATO. Finland and Sweden are in NATO. Petersburg is 100 miles from Finland. The Baltic states are not friendly at all anymore. Kaliningrad has always been surrounded. This war led to a deeper encirclement and closer positioning of missiles. It was a massive massive failure as far as preventing NATO expansion. It's put a wedge between Turkey and Russia--which makes their objectives in West Asia harder to fulfill. All those Bayraktars are little cuts in Russia and Turkey's relationships.

Preventing NATO expansion will be a never-ending game of whack-a-mole--if Russia's borders expanded to the Dnieper they're in danger of Polish missiles suddenly, in addition to the problems of nuclear subs which already puts the lie to a preemptive war to prevent something as idiotic as an unprovoked IRBM attack on Russia's capital. Preventing NATO expansion is a suicidal, counterproductive, doomed foreign policy strategy. Russia is turning itself into a predatory threat to its neighbors in the name of not being nuked by its neighbors in some implausible return to Hitlerite Pan-European anti-slav genocidal fervor. Does the scenario Russia wants security from make sense? Russia's most plausible path to victory is making NATO an expensive albatross that contributes nothing to US security or prosperity. Can Russia actually outspend the Fed and the ECB in tandem, fueled by discounted oil sales? Probably not, especially when they are sacrificing their coethnics in Ukraine to do this while the West is spending almost no blood and a fairly marginal amount of treasure on balance.

This war was a miscalculation, Russia's best outcome would be breaking even, but it's hard to call winning farmland full of potential terrorists/partisans and insane ethnic vendetta 'winning.' They get the unenviable task of rebuilding what they keep of Ukraine and integrating citizens where their soldiers almost certainly killed relatives and neighbors--some percentage of Ukies that's more than 1% will hate Russia for generations now. That's on top of repairing all the areas that got shelled for years and outright invaded. Blood hatred might be nothing new over there but it is inconvenient. Ukraine calling Russia's bluff about a fait accompli was not wise for the Ukrainian nation, which is now in a death spiral, but it did unseat Russia from projecting 'global superpower' when it is more of a 'first among incompetent fuckups' in Eurasia. The war let Russia get wrong-footed on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict on its doorstep, Georgia is still receiving pozloads, Moldova is not going to hand over Transnistria without a fight, and again, Petersburg is 100 miles away from Finland, which has joined NATO.

 

[Derka Derka]

Holding up the process could put NATO in a position where they feel they must force Russia to the table by further increasing sanctions, unshackling what Ukraine can do with the equipment, and having pro-NATO mercenaries suddenly appear to help Ukraine. Russia's war economy has been resilient but it won't last forever and China isn't going to prop up Russia if they become a liability in the long-term.

I think the sanctions ship has already sailed. It's just made Russia, and all the other countries who have been hit with sanction diplomacy, band together to uncouple any remaining reliance on the West.

The U.S. has lost it's spot as the worlds only reserve currency, and been furiously printing money to add to it's debt. This means they have crippled themselves, to do any shit like that in the future (not to mention other countries are now also starting to abandon the dollar, as they warm up to BRICS)

NATO is running out of weapons to send and Ukraine is running out of men to use them.

NATO is running out of conventional surplus weapons.
They don't get any shiny toys like they give the goys

 

[warhammerautist]

How capable are those Russian 5th generation aircraft? Apparently they are somewhat competitive but will probably get knocked out by our (American) planes and pilots?

https://www.key.aero/article/where-all-f-22-raptors-are-based-and-why about 67% of 630 F-35s are operational, 50% of 186 f-22s are operational.

https://tass.com/defense/1726621?utm_source=tass-com.cdn.ampproject.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=tass-com.cdn.ampproject.org&utm_referrer=tass-com.cdn.ampproject.org

Su-57s
2019 - 1 (crashed)
2020 - 1
2021 - 2
2022 - 6
2023 - 8
total - 17 in service, enough for the first combat squadron. 10-12 more should be delivered this year.

Su-75
1st flight was promised this year and it happened, think production is still planned for 2026.

Su-70
Stealth drone with own radar and air to air missiles. Very cheap to produce. Still dangerous to adversary 5th gens if su-57 or su-75s share radar data with it to fire long range missiles when given commands. https://tass.ru/ekonomika/14745787 new production plants for su-70s deliveries with it are supposedly promised by the end of this year like the next batch of su-57s.

4th Gen aircrafts if given radar data from 5th gens can use 300km air to air missiles. Modernized S-300s, S-350 and S-400s can share radar info or use 120-400km ground to air missiles or S-500(S-550 later) entering service boosting it to 600kms.

Iran fires 180-200 BMs, claim they destroyed 20 F-35s, Israel claims 1 destroyed and 1 damaged. Iran claims to have over 1000 BMs. Russia has more missiles than Iran which are more accurate with more countermeasures against air defense systems. Also more satellite launches this year and the next following years for better surveillance in conducting strikes on territories.

 

[YautjaWeeb]

Trump may cut off support for Ukraine, but he's a controlled muppet of Israel and as such, is loading up his administration with anti-Iranian hawks to go along with the anti-Chinese hawks. Since those are two of Russia's most important allies, how will that alignment impact US/Russia relations in his administration?

If the war was a stalemate this may apply but an end to it is going to be on Russia's terms. Trump can cuck America and give in to every demand at the negotiation table, OR make child like threats and massively escalate the conflict into the great European war the liberals, neocons and bug eaters in Brussels want.

Russia has the manpower, morale, equipment deployed and security cause to continue (ie, Kursk). There is no reason to stop. There is no reason to believe NATO, Ukraine or America would abide by any agreement anyway. So it ends in a very lopsided and one way deal and not anything "fair" or "good" within the Trumpian lexicon. Or the grind continues until it ends anyway.

 

[VargReallyDidNothingWrong]

I wouldn't be surprised if by 2050 missile launching capabilities gets to the point where NATO doesn't need to station anything in Ukraine to reliably hit Russian cities if they wanted to.

NATO can hit Russia reliably right now if they want to. The reason you place nukes closer to your enemy is that the flight time and therefore the reaction time is much much shorter.

If you launch nukes from the Atlantic out of a submarine you get a 25 minute (for example) window before they hit their target. Placing them in Ukraine shortens it to 6 minutes, or whatever.

 

[Overly Serious]

This war was a miscalculation,

I'm not as blackpilled on the situation as you are because I think you might be overlooking what an economic and social malaise most of the West is facing. They've been kicking the can down the road for a very long time now. But the above is the only part of your post I really disagree with. Not because I think you're wrong about the war being bad for Russia. It is and you do an excellent job of listing out reasons why. But because I don't see Russia as having much of a choice. Are they just to get whittled away bit by bit and put ever more at a military disadvantage? Russia took action whilst they're still able to. Putin expressed the sentiment "if you know a fight is inevitable, strike first". I'm not a big fan of pre-emptive warfare but I think he's right - US expansion of its hegemony was not stopping and Russia was a priority target.

Again, I agree with most of what you say, but if Russia didn't strike now it was only going to get less and less able to. Right now, whatever the costs and underlying factors are, they very much have the upper hand militarily and if NATO goes into open warfare, Russia will go nuclear. By gaining the military upper hand, they can negotiate some kind of peace on reasonably favourable terms. And that gives Russia time. They have an educated populace with a strong cultural history, land, natural resources. And America has 30trn plus in debt and Europe is facing soaring energy costs and increasingly nationalistic movements in Germany, France and elsewhere.

I'm not one of these people who goes "rah, rah, Russia!" and pretends everything is coming up roses for it. But I'm not sure invading was a mistake from Russia's point of view. The alternative was slowly being strangled by NATO.

 

[Gondolindrim]

Trump may cut off support for Ukraine, but he's a controlled muppet of Israel and as such, is loading up his administration with anti-Iranian hawks to go along with the anti-Chinese hawks. Since those are two of Russia's most important allies, how will that alignment impact US/Russia relations in his administration?

Oh we are 100% going to war with Iran within the next 2 years. It's kinda funny seeing all the Trump stans insist that this term will be smooth sailing.

China is still much too strong for us to antagonize openly and the GOP wants to cease the Russia bullshit, so more Middle East shenanigans are the way to go.

 

[Maori Kiwifruit Growers]

Why hasn't Ukraine mobilized all of it's men yet? If they have been in such an existential crisis as they claim, wouldn't they be drafting all able body men and women? I heard that only 25 year olds are being called up. Maybe this isn't the right thread for it this (if not which is) but I excepted after 2014 and ESPECIALLY after 2022 the Ukrainians would be acting like...the Israelis, and not begging for old munitions that even the Moroccans don't want. I'm shocked we don't see a total war footing and everything that's coming with it. Is the war just that unpopular in Ukraine?

 

[YautjaWeeb]

Why hasn't Ukraine mobilized all of it's men yet? If they have been in such an existential crisis as they claim, wouldn't they be drafting all able body men and women? I heard that only 25 year olds are being called up. Maybe this isn't the right thread for it this (if not which is) but I excepted after 2014 and ESPECIALLY after 2022 the Ukrainians would be acting like...the Israelis, and not begging for old munitions that even the Moroccans don't want. I'm shocked we don't see a total war footing and everything that's coming with it. Is the war just that unpopular in Ukraine?

They didn't want to pull people out of post-secondary indoctrination or woodchip the breeders who immediately start families in their early 20s. The future of globohomo and future globomohomo wars depends on these two things. In theory anyway.

 

[Kola]

Why hasn't Ukraine mobilized all of it's men yet? If they have been in such an existential crisis as they claim, wouldn't they be drafting all able body men and women?

They are literally picking random people off the streets and sending them into the meatgrinder.

 

[Maori Kiwifruit Growers]

They are literally picking random people off the streets and sending them into the meatgrinder.

I suppose I'm comparing it to wars like Israel had (independence war, 6 day, yom kippur, hell even this current one), or even the Iraq-Iran war. Serious question, if you're 18 are you immediately drafted? I know in Israel and Iran that's the case (or postponed for college). I feel like if the Ukrainians fight like the Israelis do (only comparing them because they won against a larger foe both with AND without US backing). They wouldn't be this fucked.

 

[WonderWino]

The funniest shit I've seen recently.
View attachment 6635099

https://x.com/colonelhomsi/status/1855657169829453866

So neither they nor their idiot lawyer are familiar with the hague and geneva conventions then I take it? Nor international law apparently. He was a foreign national fighting as a mercenary, that makes him an unlawful combatant with zero legal protections, makes him prohibited from being granted POW status and makes him subject to summary execution if captured

No murder was involved here. He's the one who took up arms illegally trying to kill russians. The russians did exactly what they were supposed to do and explicitly permitted to do legally

They want compensation? Ask their own government why they unlawfully allowed a citizen to leave the country with the express intent of illegally joining a war as a mercenary

Looks like Troon of Keef nuked xis twitter account

Looks like ukraine has had enough of the troons lunacy. Probably couldn't keep his mouth shut about how they're going to slaughter the russians all the way to moscow and all that shit he was talking. I'll laugh my ass off if he ends up sent to the front as cannon fodder

 

[Legato]

Wow! Whats with all the newfags flying into this thread with their CNN level takes? Did this thread get linked somewhere?

 

[Welf Welf]

Wow! Whats with all the newfags flying into this thread with their CNN level takes? Did this thread get linked somewhere?

There's been a lot of mainstream news articles lately that are finally acknowledging Ukraine is struggling (still plenty of "Russia's out of missiles!" "Russia lost 2000 soldiers in one day!" kinds of articles around too). I'm guessing people wandered in here for the Kiwi take, saw this thread near the top of the board, and entered.

Speaking of recent war news, who really blew up the Kurakhove dam?
Did Russia do it, to screw up Ukrainian logistics?
Did Ukraine do it, to block their own deserting troops from retreating?
Did Azov do it, to ensure Russian-speaking conscripts died in the forming pocket?

 

[Feline Supremacist]

who really blew up the Kurakhove dam

Controlled detonation from the Ukrainian controlled side of the dam so Hoholstanis is my opinion. Theyre abandoning their positions and blew the dam to slow down the Russian advance.

 

[namelesstacotruck]

Wow! Whats with all the newfags flying into this thread with their CNN level takes? Did this thread get linked somewhere?

They think something will happen with Trump

Most likely he offers continuing Ukraine as is (but no escalation) as the carrot to get his appointments and domestic agenda done and keep the neo cons he needs for his stateside policies.

The only things Trump can offer is sanctions, swift, and seized money. Putin isnt an absolute dictator he is the balance between oligarchs and nationalists. Trumps offer will only be appealing if he is worries nationalists have gotten too strong and he needs to put nationalists in check and empower oligarchs.

As an American tard i have no idea if Russia wants this to end or if "to Odessa" is more popular. If "to Odessa" has the sentiment Truml is fucked. Also the reports that he has to read are from the same type of fucks who analyzed a Harris blow out. Hes going in blind.

 

[Lookie-lou]

They are literally picking random people off the streets and sending them into the meatgrinder.

Which is all they can do. Its worked like a draft lottery that has grown more aggressive with both its methods and spins over the last 2.5 years. So while they've not mass rounded up every able bodied man the people plucked have always been unhappy and prone to running. The reason why there has not been a mass roundup where they empty out an entire city are twofold:

1. Riots, lots of bloody riots which are a big bag of shit Kyiiiv doesnt need. A lot of ukrainians have old SKSs and the like stowed under floorboards, which would spice it up.
2. Country would collapse anyway if all the men went peacefully, cannot just throw a spanner in the hands of the remaning women and tell them to fill all the stuff electricians, mechanics, plumbers, construction workers, loaders, etc were doing.

 

[Welf Welf]

As an American tard i have no idea if Russia wants this to end or if "to Odessa" is more popular. If "to Odessa" has the sentiment Truml is fucked. Also the reports that he has to read are from the same type of fucks who analyzed a Harris blow out. Hes going in blind.

The only Russians I know are from Moscow or Saint Petersburg (which makes sense, you're most likely to find English-speaking Russians in those cities), and the war gets an indifferent attitude at best from them. While they do make a point that this war was not entirely unprovoked, they don't care for it and don't believe it's worth fighting. There's a comparison to be made to affluent big city Americans and Vietnam there, I think.

 

[There Is Light At The End]

The only Russians I know are from Moscow or Saint Petersburg (which makes sense, you're most likely to find English-speaking Russians in those cities), and the war gets an indifferent attitude at best from them. While they do make a point that this war was not entirely unprovoked, they don't care for it and don't believe it's worth fighting. There's a comparison to be made to affluent big city Americans and Vietnam there, I think.

It's decided. Some people see what's going on, some are "little good Russians" and some are like those - just don't give a fuck. All mixed up in various degrees