Tesla Hate Thread - oh and come seethe about EVs in general with me

[Lichen Bark]

FOMO? HODL? Who the fuck knows? What flummoxes Tesla haters like ourselves is our fairly good track record of predicting Tesla's technical failures (I said from the beginning Dojo made no sense and Tesla would just buy GPUs, which is exactly what happened), yet the stock market just doesn't give a rat's ass.

I'm not a Tesla hater, but I think there is value in seeing if any valid critical issues are pointed out by people who hate the company. I think most investors are focused on the chance they crack the self-driving problem. If I think about historical disruptive technologies many are transportation related: the wheel, the steam engine, the automobile, the airplane, they all had extreme effects on how the world functions. Self-driving transportation is a big one in my opinion. Once the problem is solved, then it's conceivable that the company that solves it, could license it to other companies that haven't figured it out. It's hard to put a price on this. In regards to Dojo if you listen to all of the shareholder meetings and quarterly reports after Dojo's release there was a lot of tempering of expectations with this product, so it isn't surprising to me that it's gone to the backburner.

The critical thing I focus on is the FSD technology. Most of the time I am watching small subscriber count youtube videos on their latest FSD software releases, and the version 13 (up from version 12) has been going out to the fleet in the last couple of days. There is always a lot of hype when new versions go out, but I think watching these types of low subscriber count videos helps me avoid the obvious shill vids, and gives you a better idea on if that hype is justified. Version 12 had lots of hype, but the cars had issues with following distance, and weird speed control fluctuations. Version 13 however is looking a lot more positive in my opinion.

Spoiler: Version 13 FSD videos

The biggest issue in mind mind right now is that Tesla is releasing version 13 of the FSD software only to cars that have Hardware Version 4 (or AI4 as they like to call it) the people who purchased cars with Hardware Version 3 (there are many, millions) aren't getting these updates anymore, although Tesla did promise that their cars would be capable of "full self driving" eventually (if they paid for this feature when they bought the vehicle). It will be interesting to see what they will do for all of these cars, because they essentially have a fork in their FSD software right now, and the Hardware Version 3 cars appear to have reached a hardware limit on what they can do. They made HW3 cars in 2018-2022 roughly, so a lot of cars aren't getting this software, and Tesla did promise the cars would eventually be capable of unsupervised Full Self Driving.

https://insideevs.com/news/738537/tesla-fsd-hardware-3-incompatible/

This could be pose some legal/financial liabilities, depending on how the wind blows. It's unclear how this will shake out, although with Trump in his back pocket there may have an easier time navigating this dilemma. I really don't know though.

 

[The Ugly One]

I think most investors are focused on the chance they crack the self-driving problem.

Okay, so that's actually a great example of the insanity, because of this:

Once the problem is solved, then it's conceivable that the company that solves it, could license it to other companies that haven't figured it out.

It is absolutely inconceivable that a supplier to the auto industry could be worth as much as the industry itself. Tesla is worth $1,500b. Every other auto company added together is worth...$1,500b.

Just forget about all the technical and possibly legal issues Tesla has with FSD and go back to the fundamental economic reality of the auto market. This is a low-margin, high-volume, globally saturated market where consumers are extremely price sensitive. This is something critics have said every time some bright-eyed, bush-tailed pollyanna thinks he's going to change the economics of the industry, and the critics have been right 100% of the time, including about Tesla, the difference being that Tesla investors have remained irrational far longer than any critic has remained solvent. We were saying this back when Tesla's big promise was to revolutionize manufacturing and FSD wasn't even on the LIDAR yet.

Tesla could execute FSD perfectly, and additionally make it fly, do your taxes, and suck your dick, and it still would not light off a double-digit CAGR rocket in the auto industry because absolutely nothing will, ever, until the sun explodes.

There isn't an additional $1.5T of value to find in the auto industry because there isn't an additional $4.4T of revenue to find. Literally the only way Tesla can justify its revenue is to grow to a 50% market share, i.e. become about 25x bigger than it is now.

 

[Lichen Bark]

supplier to the auto industry

It's been a long time since anyone thought of Tesla as just a car company, I don't think any investors agree they are that alone anymore. They re-branded from Tesla Motors in 2017 to Tesla, and have have successfully changed their image to "tech company" now. If they manage to teach a car to navigate unfamiliar roads with cameras, then they can use that same tech in other areas, and maybe teach a robot to navigate an unfamiliar room (eg. Optimus). Now investors are all horny for him making robot labor a real thing. What is that market worth? I don't know, but investors think it's worth a lot apparently, and they think he might do it. I like to keep on eye on if they are close to their goal.

He's got the largest AI training cluster now, subsequently making investors horny for "AGI." What's that market worth?

I can't justify their valuation, the entire stock market is just what investors perceive things are worth anyway. Your calculations don't matter if Person A is willing to buy a share of TSLA for $400.

and the critics have been right 100% of the time, including about Tesla

I can't really agree there, the "critics" opinions aren't worth much. They were also saying from 2012 - 2018 that the companywas going to die everyday, it didn't. They said he wouldn't do a reusable rocket, or succeed in making a global Internet constellation, or put a computer in that quadriplegics brain, yet here we are. I put more value in the posters on Kiwi Farms than I do to anything written by hacks from Business Insider. That's why I still keep up with this thread to see if there are any big threats to the company that I missed.

 

[The Ugly One]

It's been a long time since anyone thought of Tesla as just a car company, I don't think any investors agree they are that alone anymore.

Cars are where they make basically all their money. What other industry would they sell self-driving car technology to?

If they manage to teach a car to navigate unfamiliar roads with cameras, then they can use that same tech in other areas, and maybe teach a robot to navigate an unfamiliar room

If that's what investors think, we're back in insane territory. Driving down the street and manipulating objects are very, very different tasks. Morever, Tesla achieved its $1T valuation before they suddenly announced a robot at AI day.

Imagine if Nvidia suddenly announced they were pivoting from AI to something completely untested and unknown. Their stock would take a bath, because their current valuation is based entirely on expected growth in AI. Similarly, Tesla's trillion-dollar valuation was driven by expectations that the ICE market would die, legacy companies would be unable to adjust, and Tesla would be the last man standing. "Ah shit, this isn't working out, so...robots!" should result in total destruction of the stock.

How much money is there in luxury robots? I'll bet the answer is "not that fucking much," same as luxury electric cars.

They said he wouldn't do a reusable rocket

SpaceX still hasn't made a fully reusable orbital rocket. As critics said at the beginning, the fundamental problem is the heat shield. There's no way to subject materials to the temperatures and pressures associated with a Mach 30 reentry and safely reuse it, and no certainty a material even could exist that could work. Elon recently admitted SpaceX still has no solution to this problem...they still need to invent a material first.

or put a computer in that quadriplegics brain,

I don't remember anyone saying you could never put a chip in a brain. I do remember people saying that Elon's promise to heal a variety of disorders caused by destruction or non-development of critical brain parts, like blindness and paralysis, would never happen, and it still hasn't happened.

or succeed in making a global Internet constellation

Nobody who knows anything relevant said it's technically impossible to connect satellites to the internet. I didn't follow this one as much, but I do seem to remember Elon promising fast, cheap, universal internet to the entire world, and critics saying it would be slow, expensive, and unaffordable by the very Third World poor Musk promised it would connect. So far, the critics were right and Starlink is still losing money https://finance.yahoo.com/news/musks-undisclosed-starlink-costs-undercut-100005512.html

The one thing the critics are consistently wrong about is a Musk company's ability to survive bleeding cash and failing at its promises. But other than that, the main thing does when his critics turn out to be right yet again is move the goalposts and sell more stock or fake moon tourism tickets.

 

[Gender: Xenomorph]

But surely being so flaming is the most homosexual part?

Ironically, condemning homosexuals to die in a fiery deathox is the least homosexual thing about EVs.

 

[Thiletonomics]

Automakers are continuing to backtrack on their EV release timelines, in response to Pmurt stealing the election becoming President #47, and waning EV demand. Stellantis is starting to backtrack on their EV releases, by releasing the PHEV version of the Ramcharger before the EV one. And Porsche's EV Cayenne and EV Cayman appear to be delayed due to development hell.

The new version of Tesla's Model Y, dubbed Juniper, will reportedly begin production next year in China. So expect them to remove the turn signal and transmission stalks on the new Model Y too.

 

[Lichen Bark]

So expect them to remove the turn signal and transmission stalks on the new Model Y too.

I hate this stupid trend! It's my #1 gripe, it's not an improvement in functionality, it's a downgrade, much like the steering "yoke." Notice they didn't try to cram that into the Cybertruck. People are spending $400 dollars just to have stalks back!

https://evoffer.com/product/model-3-2024-gear-turn-signal-stalk/

 

[DavidS877]

I hate this stupid trend! It's my #1 gripe, it's not an improvement in functionality, it's a downgrade, much like the steering "yoke." Notice they didn't try to cram that into the Cybertruck. People are spending $400 dollars just to have stalks back!

https://evoffer.com/product/model-3-2024-gear-turn-signal-stalk/

View attachment 6776811

Luckily my electric car hasn't gone that stupid, but it doesn't have a physical headlight switch. Being I live in a place referred to as the Pacific Northwet I have to turn on my lights way more often than the stupid "automatic" sensor guesses. It's only 2 touchscreen presses but it's still far more annoying than "twist knob". But it's not just the EV version, other similar gas models have made the same stupid changes. If I ever get bored I'll try and figure out if I can inject a CANBUS message and put in a physical switch.

 

[Burnt Effigy]

Stellantis is starting to backtrack on their EV releases

Nooooooooooooooooooooo!

With that latest dodge EV release being absolute and utter trash, I hoped that this would be the start of Stellantis fucking dying (like the horrible corporation it is) because of releasing EV Slop (first the Fiat 500e, then this Dodge, and that Jeep Avenger EV that has less power than a fucking chevy bolt) that nobody wants!

Man. I'm bummed. Killing garbage car companies was the one good thing EVs were going to bring, and we've been robbed of that

 

[Thiletonomics]

Nooooooooooooooooooooo!

With that latest dodge EV release being absolute and utter trash, I hoped that this would be the start of Stellantis fucking dying (like the horrible corporation it is) because of releasing EV Slop (first the Fiat 500e, then this Dodge, and that Jeep Avenger EV that has less power than a fucking chevy bolt) that nobody wants!

Man. I'm bummed. Killing garbage car companies was the one good thing EVs were going to bring, and we've been robbed of that

The recent Stellantis corrections, as well as the rumored news of Honda and Nissan merging, means that garbage car companies could still keep going. The only ones we can hope for is for more Chinese car companies to die out, and they have been starting to implode one by one, because the CCP is clearly getting tired of subsidizing junk car companies and their shitty low-effort EVs they've been shitting out.

Edmunds also wrapped-up their long term Chevy Blazer EV test, and it has also been a software glitchfest with several teething mechanical issues.

 

[Just Some Other Guy]

More of a general EV battery rant but at work I've been forced to swap over to an electric Ford transit van. It was all fun and games during the summer but now it's Michigan winter and this thing fucking sucks.

Always slowly losing charge while I'm doing stuff in my buildings at night. Not enough chargers for all the evs we decided to switch over, and absolutely none near my buildings. During the warmer months I was able to keep it topped up by charging for an hour before the end of the shift, not any longer. If I sit in the van and keep it at a paltry 72F with everything set to minimum the charge rate is absolutely abysmal.

Pretty much the go to strategy now is to just let it run low enough and park it at a charger all night while using one of the spare gas powered vans for the night.

Fuck this tech, the gov, the apologists, and anybody who likes these piece of shit batteries.

 

[anklyscr]

Edmunds also wrapped-up their long term Chevy Blazer EV test, and it has also been a software glitchfest with several teething mechanical issues.

But I was told that EVs are much simpler than ICE and that would make them more reliable.
Why are the companies struggling with systems they’ve had in use for decades?

 

[Thiletonomics]

An engineer that worked a Jaguar Land Rover, who blew the whistle on Tata's involvement with VinFast and exposed major flaws with VinFast's cars during development, namely with the suspension, ended up getting fired for it. / Archive

He also did an AMA on reddit, talking about the said flaws with VinFast's cars during its development. / Archive

VinFast was indeed cutting corners in regards to their suspension design, and the first version of the VF8 received MASSIVELY negative reviews everywhere, because of how bad the ride and handling felt.

 

[quaawaa]

Just a Tesla with the latest “Full Self Driving“ software casually driving on the wrong side of the road:

Source (Archive)

It’s not “bad map data” like the shills say; the map on the screen shows the correct lanes.



The fanboys also blame him for not driving the self-driving car:

 

[Thiletonomics]

Brazilian authorities have stopped construction of a BYD factory in Brazil, due to slave labor conditions such as confiscating worker passports, needing to sleep on beds without mattresses, bathrooms that are shared by 31 or so workers each, and confiscation of worker wages and forced fines if someone were to break their contract. / Archive

And as expected, BYD slams the slave labor report claims, although given the claimed worker statements that it was just "misunderstandings" and "cultural differences", the workers were most likely coerced to defend BYD in this case. BYD also blamed the contracting company they hired for the slave labor conditions, but it is still on BYD that they failed to vet the company before hiring it. / Archive

And that's another reason why not to buy Chinese EVs, although the Urbanists and EV Simps will just brush aside those horrifying conditions as "BIG OIL MAGA and Alt-Right Republican PSYOP propaganda".

 

[⋖ cørdion ⋗]

Something hilarious about driving past an actual mansion and see 2 teslas parked there. Starting to see why Jaguar is trying to become the rich man's e-car; there is none

 

[Car Won't Crank]

I'm actually warming up to the new slew of Chinese EV that are a mishmash of designs from Porsche and McLaren. I think It's Xiaomi SU7 and the other cars in that lineup.

 

[DavidS877]

Something hilarious about driving past an actual mansion and see 2 teslas parked there. Starting to see why Jaguar is trying to become the rich man's e-car; there is none

Cadillac has a super-luxury EV.

Starting at mid 300k.
Almost no specs.

 

[1994 Honda Civic]

Cadillac has a super-luxury EV.
View attachment 6794674
Starting at mid 300k.
Almost no specs.
View attachment 6794676

Looks straight from a 2000s cyberpunk concept car sketch. All included with the big ass wheels, the thin lights, accompanied by its wack proportions and design language. Not even the Jag is the first one to make something like this and if their newer concepts is anything to go by, it will end up as a literal Roblox car when it's ready for production.

Still in the current year +9 and there's no carmaker who can create a single EV with as much impact as a Tesla. Why not just get an EQS if you want to appear as not like those Model 3 drivers?

 

[DavidS877]

Looks straight from a 2000s cyberpunk concept car sketch. All included with the big ass wheels, the thin lights, accompanied by its wack proportions and design language. Not even the Jag is the first one to make something like this and if their newer concepts is anything to go by, it will end up as a literal Roblox car when it's ready for production.

Still in the current year +9 and there's no carmaker who can create a single EV with as much impact as a Tesla. Why not just get an EQS if you want to appear as not like those Model 3 drivers?

Honestly there's so little variation in design language. This is the 'other' Cadillac EV. The "Lyriq"

This is the GMC Sierra EV Pickup


With aerodynamics above all, plus silly huge wheels I'm not really seeing the upsell to a 300k Cadillac.

At least the AMG EQS has a little more personality, even if the wheels are even uglier.