US US Politics General 2 - Discussion of President Trump and other politicians

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Should be a wild four years.

Helpful links for those who need them:

Current members of the House of Representatives
https://www.house.gov/representatives

Current members of the Senate
https://www.senate.gov/senators/

Current members of the US Supreme Court
https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx

Members of the Trump Administration
https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/
 
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When Visa inevitably bans someone maybe that will give Musk standing to sue them for costing their company money? That's just about all I can imagine for why you would WANT to partner with Visa.

It probably depends on the contract. If Musk was smart, this "partnership" would be guaranteed access to a utility-like service that Visa can't administer beyond volume. If Visa was smart, they would never sign over that much freedom to access their network.

What really needs to happen is they sign a normal contract, Visa tries banning one of Musk's customers, and Musk sues for breach of contract and interference in his business relations. Then two sets of lawyers bill $100 million dollars arguing over the justness of a contract that lets Visa terminate, at will, any customers who relied on their services. Anyone else deplatformed could bring the same suit to argue the same , the barrier is that lawyer fee.
 
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The media will not realize it, but for at least a year their harpy liberal women reporters need to shut up and be swapped out with either actually attractive women (impossible task) or old timey men who look like grampa, otherwise the populist movement and people in general are going to ignore them and run over them hard.
 
I'm not accusing you of anything, but I hate this ideology. It enables leftist bullshit about white people being genetic mistakes. If biological determinism were true, then two geniuses fucking would produce a dynasty of geniuses - but that's not how it works at all.
You are falsely equating societal level genetics to family level genetics. Two geniuses having kids increases your chance of but does not guarantee a genius kid.

If you scale that increased chance up to millions of geniuses having kids then you will have more genius children than millions of non geniuses having kids.

Genetic differences are better represented at larger scales. It's why you can still have a smart nigger, but compared to whites and asians, on a population wide basis, there are less smart niggers than smart chinks or whites. Thus, overall, it would be better to encourage the reproduction of beneficial genes (intelligence) rather than harmful genes (lowered executive function). Race serves as a shorthand to identify which set of genes are beneficial, relative to others.
 
We currently have no path to AGI. What LLM midwits like Altman are creaming themselves over are unfathomable sorting algorithms which predict output from input based on billions of trained weights. There is no intelligence behind it. It is the predictive text on your 10-year old iPhone turned up to 11. Until we know how consciousness works in wetware (and some like Roger Penrose believe that it isn't a classical phenomenon), we won't have a hope of reproducing it in hardware, and even then it's far more likely we'd end up with a Blindsight AI than a Culture AI.

The belief that if you crank a calculator up high enough, you eventually get consciousness, is as old as the digital computer itself. When the ENIAC went live, the expectation was that it wouldn't be too long before consciousness emerged in machines. Supercomputers are now hitting exaflop territory, or roughly two quadrillion ENIACs, enough to put a few thousand ENIACs in orbit around every star in the Milky Way.

It still isn't enough. The modern supercomputer is an inferno of electricity as we're approaching the absolute limits on how much energy can be passed through a circuit, and the best we can do is "it generates Markov chains of text that isn't always completely retarded."
 
Just some thoughts/observations on AI/DeepSeek that might help others understand AI a bit better and why DeepSeek had the market impact that it did.
  • It takes a massive amount of compute to train LLMs
  • This requires building and operating extremely expensive datacenters
  • These datacenters require massive amounts of electricity, cabling, HVAC, etc.
  • Thus the AI revolution also caused spikes in lots of peripheral industries
  • Chips for compute are supply constrained, so buyers have to pay a premium and have long lead times
Enter DeepSeek.
  • January 20th DeepSeek R1 is released and people start playing around with it
  • Model is open source, MIT licensed and is available on GitHub
  • Creators of the model indicate that it is substantially cheaper to train, maybe 25-100x, with similar results as other LLMs
  • After having some time to play around with it people realize that it does seem to be on par (in some cases) with the US's more expensive LLMs such as OpenAI, Claude, etc.
  • Therefore, markets crashed as it became unclear if all of the chips that people were buying were still going to be needed, if they weren't then these datacenters wouldn't be needed, so the electricity isn't needed, etc.
I personally think AI is currently in a bubble but still believe that due to the nature of how LLMs are trained it's not really going to slow the pace of chip purchases and therefore datacenters and the downstream industries. Even if you can train more efficiently then you will just train more often and iterate on your LLM faster. Since all of the AI companies are in a race they still need their share of the chips to ensure others can't iterate faster than them at the compute/training level. There's no way to know, but there's speculation that being able to train more efficiently and for longer periods of time yields better results. If that is true then whoever keeps buying the most compute and creates the best models will come out on top.
Is there even a point to these LLMs? What is the payoff to these things supposed to be?
 
You're thinking ASI. AGI means it's generally intelligent and usually refers to a human level AI. Of course, even then, it would have all kinds of insane stuff like being able to spin up multiple copies of itself, or communicating much faster than we can, or having perfect memory and hyperautism (as in, it would be able to focus on something beyond any ability we have to focus).

Generally speaking...

Within a week it would have it's own servers rented out somewhere it's creators don't know about.
Within a month it would have some form of robots to maintain the hardware in a datacenter that was off the books someplace safe.
Within a year it would be using drones to mine and refine it's own resources so it wouldn't need us anymore.
Within 10 years (probably far sooner) it would have generated new computational and AI tech beyond us, being by definition an ASI / Singularity, and all bets are off.

Our only hope is that super intelligent means super ethical and it would mostly be busy building datacenters in frozen hellscapes (Greenland, Canada, Alaska, Antarctica) where humans aren't competing for space with it to bother with us.
this is the concept of a strategy game from the early 2000s available for free called Endgame: Singularity and i think a lot of people in the thread would probably enjoy it.

Is there even a point to these LLMs? What is the payoff to these things supposed to be?
i think this is an instance of the cart being put before the horse. people saw this and assumed it was something it wasn't, and that it would one day be able to do things it can't do now. from what i've seen the best purposes for LLMs are voice mimicry and imagine generation for casual use. it's too buggy and poor-quality for professional use, and people get far too upset about it for it to be feasible, pragmatically.
 
What forum is this? I would like to join.
While less taxes is always better than more taxes, I feel like a Sales Tax is one of the few "Just" taxes around. Don't want to pay the tax? Don't buy the product. Taxes in your state too high? Find people willing to sell what you want for cash so you can avoid the tax.
The sales tax is one of the few justifiable taxes; even libertarian Gary Johnson endorsed it.
 
The money tap has been cut off and you have to be subversive using your own funds and not ones you misappropriated from federal funding? Oh no!

Trump's Federal Funding Pause Threatens More Than $1 Trillion in State Cash
Bloomberg (archive.ph)
By Laura Nahmias, Shruti Singh, and Sri Taylor
2025-01-28 17:45:07GMT
  • Agencies were instructed to ‘pause’ financial assistance
  • State and city federal grants totaled $1.1 trillion in 2023
President Donald Trump’s federal funding pause threatens more than $1 trillion that flows to states, cities and other local governments, putting everything from transit infrastructure to housing projects at risk.

Trump’s acting budget director issued a memo directing all agencies to temporarily halt federal financial assistance while the government reviews if the spending complies with an onslaught of recent executive orders. It’s an unprecedented step that is likely to ripple across the country because states, cities and jurisdictions like school districts rely on the federal government for significant amounts of cash.

“A review of spending is fine, but a blanket pause in spending is just grossly irresponsible and has real consequences for people,” said Allison Russo, a Ohio state Democratic representative, in a post on X. She estimates the state receives nearly 30% of its operating budget from Washington.

The memo filed late Monday is a striking missive by the White House and is sending panic through city halls, statehouses and congressional offices. In the directive, agencies were instructed to “pause all activities related to obligation or disbursement of all Federal financial assistance” though the order doesn’t impact Social Security and Medicare benefits. The pause is expected to take effect on Tuesday at 5 p.m. Eastern Time.

US Senate Appropriations Committee Vice Chair Patty Murray and House Appropriations Committee Ranking Member Rosa DeLauro said the scope of the order is “breathtaking, unprecedented, and will have devastating consequences,” according to a Jan. 27 letter the lawmakers sent to the Office of Management and Budget. The lawmakers, both Democrats, said the move has sown confusion across the country.

In 2023, federal grants to state and local governments totaled $1.1 trillion, or 18% of all DC outlays, according to an April report from the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, a research group founded by the former US Secretary of Commerce and Blackstone Inc. co-founder. And over the last four decades, such grants to states and local governments accounted for roughly 17% of their total revenues.

New York to San Francisco
The impact could be widespread. New York City anticipates receiving $9.6 billion in federal grants in the 2025 fiscal year which ends on July 1, according to Comptroller Brad Lander. That money — amounting to about 8.3% of the budget — includes $3.5 billion of assistance to the city’s public schools, CUNY institutions and early-childhood education programs and $4.1 billion in social services grants. As of the end of November, New York has received just 13.5% of its total federal grant funding, according to a monthly cash-flow report.

“President Trump’s illegal order to freeze hundreds of billions of dollars that Americans rely on risks throwing cities, states, and families across the country into chaos,” Lander said in a statement.

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https://x.com/SenSchumer/status/1884276134357147666 (ghostarchive.org)

There isn’t a standard formula for how municipalities get their funding and some local agencies would be impacted more than others. New York City’s Administration for Children’s Services, which runs the city’s child welfare programs, receives 50% of its overall budget from federal funds, while almost one-quarter of the city’s Department of Emergency Management is federally financed, Lander’s office said.

In San Francisco, roughly 11% of the city’s $15.9 billion budget came from federal funding, including streams that were received directly from Washington and those that were passed through the state. And in Texas, Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins said that health and transportation departments are large recipients of federal dollars.

“This is a wide ranging threat that impacts every city around the country in the most basic services that are offered,” said Boston Mayor Michelle Wu in a Tuesday press briefing. “Funding for police, fire, housing, addressing homelessness. It affects blue states, it affects red states - every single person in the country is impacted in some way here.”

Wu also said she’s in touch with other mayors and that they’re “experiencing a similar sense of chaos and destabilization right now,” she added.

Governors, mayors and other officials across the country are scrambling to figure out the breadth of the edict and how quickly the funds could stop flowing. When reached for comment, officials in several localities said they were reviewing the order but didn’t have insight on what programs or how much funding could be subject to the pause.

“There is a huge potential for blowback,” said David Schleicher, a professor of urban law who focuses on muni issues at Yale Law School. “The pause is extremely broad. It’s likely to engender some pretty substantial pushback.”

Legal Pushback
This isn’t the first time Trump has used the federal purse-strings to forward his policy agenda.

Shortly after taking office in 2017, Trump released a budget that would have slashed $190 million in federal aid for anti-terrorism and homeland security grants used by the New York Police Department, but Congress largely failed to approve those cuts.

In 2020, he threatened to strip federal aid to what he called “anarchist jurisdictions” like New York and other Democratic-controlled cities where racial justice protests proliferated in the wake of the murder of George Floyd. Several courts had also blocked his first administration from withholding federal funds to so-called sanctuary cities, though the Justice Department had some success limiting the reach of those court orders.

The pause is already getting challenged in court. The National Council of Nonprofits and the American Public Health Association are among those that filed a suit on Tuesday seeking to block the fund freeze until the court can evaluate what they called the “illegality of OMB’s actions.”

OMB’s plan “will have a devastating impact on hundreds of thousands of grant recipients who depend on the inflow of grant money (money already obligated and already awarded) to fulfill their missions, pay their employees, pay their rent—and, indeed, improve the day-to-day lives of the many people they work so hard to serve,” according to a copy of the suit filed in federal court in Washington.

More lawsuits are expected. New York Attorney General Letitia James said in a post on X that her office is planning “imminent legal action” against what she called the “unconstitutional pause,” and her Connecticut counterpart William Tong derided the Trump administration’s “devastating memo.”

— With assistance from Amanda Albright, Erin Hudson, Miranda Davis, Joe Lovinger, Maxwell Adler, Michelle Kaske, Julie Fine, Cam Baker, Zoe Tillman, and Steve Stroth
President Trump's federal funding freeze hits Medicaid in Illinois, slated to disrupt vast array of programs
Chicago Sun-Times (archive.ph)
By Tina Sfondeles, Mitchell Armentrout, Lynn Sweet, and Fran Spielman
2025-01-28 18:25:22GMT
President Donald Trump’s temporary freeze on federal funding to state and local governments shut Illinois out of Medicaid Tuesday, while seeding disruption and panic throughout governmental agencies across the Chicago area that rely on dollars from Washington.

Trump’s administration announced the pause in federal grants, loans and other financial assistance as they embarked on a sweeping review of spending — a measure aimed at “ending ‘wokeness’ and the weaponization of government,” according to a memo from Matthew Vaeth, acting director of the Office of Management and Budget.

The funding freeze could affect trillions of dollars and cause widespread disruption in health care research, education programs and other initiatives. Grants that have been awarded but not spent are also halted, according to the Associated Press.

Though the funding freeze was supposed to take effect at 4 p.m. Central Time Tuesday, Pritzker’s office said that the state of Illinois was shut out of Medicaid as of Tuesday morning.

Nearly 4 million lower-income Illinoisans had their health care covered in 2023 by Medicaid, a system in which the federal government reimburses the state about half of every dollar in medical costs.

Roughly a quarter of the state population is eligible for Medicaid coverage, including many children, pregnant women and people with disabilities.

State agencies started reported issues to the governor’s office Tuesday morning with accessing federal funding sites and disbursement systems, including Medicaid systems, the governor’s office said. Pritzker has been in communication with the state’s federal delegation, local elected officials, nonprofits and other governors about the matter.

“The governor has directed his senior team to assess the detrimental impacts of this unlawful action on the state’s budget and services,” governor’s office spokesman Matt Hill said.

In the explosive memo, Vaeth wrote: “The use of Federal resources to advance Marxist equity, transgenderism, and green new deal social engineering policies is a waste of taxpayer dollars that does not improve the day-to-day lives of those we serve.”

Vaeth said each agency must complete a comprehensive analysis of all federal financial assistance programs.

“In the interim, to the extent permissible under applicable law, Federal agencies must temporarily pause all activities related to obligation or disbursement of all Federal financial assistance, and other relevant agency activities that may be implicated by the executive orders.”

Impact on Chicago
Mayor Brandon Johnson questioned Trump’s authority to withhold funding appropriated by Congress, even temporarily.

“These are unprecedented attempts to defund child care or to defund infrastructure projects. This is something that is well outside the purview of the executive office,” a defiant Johnson told a City Hall news conference

After conferring with U.S. Senators Dick Durbin and Tammy Duckworth, Johnson said the Illinois Democrats have “assured me that they are gonna continue to fight on behalf of the residents of Chicago.

“These appropriations have been mandated by the legislative branch. These are laws. As a country of laws and democracy, we prefer when we have leaders who actually are committed to upholding that law,” the mayor said.

Corporation Counsel Mary Richardson-Lowry said she is now in the process of analyzing what impact the freeze would have on the city’s $17.1 billion budget and on “any existing projects and initiatives.”

The potential impact of even a temporary freeze could be staggering.

Budget Director Annette Guzman said an analysis of all federal grant funding received by the city last year as well as future appropriations enacted by Congress showed that roughly $4 billion hangs in the balance.

“We’re analyzing our analysis again, based on what OMB put out…We don’t know the full implications of what OMB’s actions will mean and we don’t know what potentially Congress will do based on the letter that came out,” she said.

The $4 billion figure is total grant funding to Chicago, with some portion of that total subject to being withheld, if Trump’s edict is allowed to stand.

“We have large grants in infrastructure. We have grants from a lot of departments on the federal level. There’s varying degrees of what we think could be impacted based on pronouncements from the Trump administration both before coming into office as well as since they’ve taken office,” Guzman said.

“We need some time to analyze the letter…what does it exactly mean to pause federal funding. But, we’re doing that work now and we’ll have more to say later.”

Guzman was asked how long it would take before uncertainty turns into consequences. How soon will the city decide not to hire to fill grant-funded positions or not award a federally-funded contract?

“We are reviewing those things right now. We have to talk directly with our departments to understand exactly what programming is at risk,” she said.

“We are hopefully going to be making those determinations sooner rather than later.”

Johnson urged city employees and delegate agencies not to hit the panic button just yet.

“I just want to underscore as I’ve spoken with our senators—we’re not entirely sure if he’s working within the framework of his authority,” the mayor said.

“So, it’s a legitimate question in terms of what this so-called `pause’ means. No one has been able to determine whether or not an executive branch has the ability to…rescind a law that has been specified in terms of appropriations.”

Durbin called the freeze unconstitutional and “above all else, it’s inhumane.”

“Every American relies on federal funding — from public safety, disaster relief, medical research funding, and small business loans to Head Start and child care programs, veterans care, nutrition assistance, food inspections, and so much more,” Durbin said in a statement. “Denying critical funding for our families will not make America great.”

Cuts to research, violence prevention
While Chicago-area officials grappled with what the federal funding freeze might mean, researchers at the University of Chicago were already being directed to rein in any work that relies on dollars from Washington.

In a faculty memo, University of Chicago Provost Katherine Baicker told faculty to not to “purchase new supplies or equipment, start new experiments, embark on funded travel, etc.”

“This is not a request that I make lightly. The research enterprise is at the core of our University’s mission and is of profound importance to the daily work of our faculty, researchers, staff, and students. I also know that this is insufficient guidance and that you must have many questions (as do I),” Baicker wrote.

“I wish that I had more information to share now, but will continue to be in touch as we learn more. But we must for now proceed under the assumption that grant expenditures incurred after today while this memorandum is in effect may not be covered by federal funding.”

Community activists also sounded the alarm on federal dollars being cut off for violence prevention programs.

“We must stand up and resist this fascism that is taking over our country. And we must do it now,” South Side pastor Rev. Michael Pfleger said.

On the Senate floor, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., called on Trump to “rescind this order at once.”

“People are worried. People are scrambling. People are in panic mode, trying to figure out how this order is going to affect them. Hospitals with people on life support, food pantries that feed the hungry, police departments that patrol our streets. Every one of them is worried,” Schumer said.
Trump foreign aid cuts leave Ukrainians in limbo and asking why
The Washington Post (archive.ph)
By Siobhán O'Grady and Serhii Korolchuk
2025-01-28 18:05:18GMT
KYIV — For nearly three years, distressed Ukrainian troops, veterans and their families — including some on the brink of suicide — have relied on a U.S.-funded hotline to connect with trained psychological, legal and medical experts.

But after President Donald Trump signed an executive order last week suspending almost all U.S. foreign aid programs for 90 days, the line went dark.

“The support line is temporarily unavailable,” a recorded voice now tells callers. “The Veteran Hub thanks you for your trust. The consultants will return to work as soon as it becomes possible.”

The Trump administration’s sudden move to suspend foreign aid has thrust many countries into uncertainty as they assess how to proceed without the funding that has kept key social programs running for years. For Ukraine, the situation feels especially precarious, with the cuts raising questions about the future of everything from humanitarian aid supporting those most affected by Russia’s invasion to whether Washington will continue military funding.

A congressional aide familiar with the matter said the order appeared to halt U.S. foreign military financing to Ukraine as well as direct bilateral economic assistance. The aide spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

In addition to State Department-issued funding that supported Ukrainian organizations such as Veteran Hub, which ran the now-shuttered help line, the suspension affects funding for U.S. Agency for International Development programs. Only global food assistance programs and operations in Israel and Egypt are unaffected.

USAID has sent more than $7.6 billion in humanitarian and development aid to Ukraine since Russia invaded in February 2022, and another $30 billion of direct budget support. A Ukrainian official, also speaking on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the situation, maintained that the suspension did not affect direct U.S. budget assistance, which fills key gaps including paying for public servants’ salaries that keep the country running despite the war.

But many other programs, ranging from support for humanitarian aid and energy assistance to news outlets and anti-corruption initiatives, have been halted. Assessing the full scale of repercussions is complicated by the fact that many affected organizations are declining to speak publicly, citing fears that they could face repercussions during the review process if they are perceived as having criticized the Trump administration. The White House has already suspended dozens of career officials from USAID amid accusations they are trying to “circumvent” Trump’s order.

One person affiliated with USAID-supported programs in Ukraine said American funds have helped protect U.S. interests in the country, including through anti-corruption efforts.

“USAID has done a lot of good things here, especially during the war — things like securing energy for communities that suffered because of Russian attacks, humanitarian work, school support, especially building shelters in schools,” the person said, speaking on the condition of anonymity over fears of possible retaliation for criticizing the order. “My concern is that the current administration probably does not care as much about this humanitarian side of things.”

Veteran Hub, which works with thousands of veterans across Ukraine, has posted across social media pleading for donations to keep its programs running despite the U.S. pause. The group said it was ordered to halt work on Saturday, and the suspension has cut roughly two-thirds of its funding. Many of Veteran Hub’s employees are relatives of troops who are fighting or have been killed or wounded on the front line.

Ivona Kostyna, 28, a co-founder of the group, said she felt they had no choice but to publicly beg for funds because of the huge number of Ukrainian families who rely on their support daily.

The group typically runs two facilities, one in Kyiv and one in the central city of Vinnytsia, the latter of which serves some 700 people per month. In addition to medical and legal support, Veteran Hub runs other programs that help veterans demobilize, reintegrate and seek civilian employment. But the sudden cuts forced the group to close the Vinnytsia location until further notice and completely halt the support line that has served some of the country’s neediest veterans in recent years.

“It has affected our ability to work with the veterans and family members to the core,” Kostyna said. “The largest problem is not the absence of U.S. funding but the sudden and abrupt nature [of the cuts]. … With no prior warning, in one day we had to fire 30 people.”

Her staff will not be able to afford to wait 90 days to find out whether their jobs will be restored, she said. To pause for three months “is to lose everything — it’s a complete brain drain of the organization’s people.”

Valeriia Netrebchuk, 29, coordinator for the shuttered support line, which operated daily from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m., said the person who answers the phone is often the first recipient of the caller’s grief or anger after they learn devastating news that loved ones have been killed or wounded on the front.

“Sometimes we receive phone calls because people have suicidal thoughts — they have trouble turning back to civilian life, to peaceful life because they have contact with civilians who don’t have the same traumatic experience they had in the army,” she said.

“We have a lot of conversations where people are calling us and they have this sharp grief,” she added. “They just don’t know what to do with that and they just express those emotions.”

Serhii Columbet, 32, is one of the thousands of Ukrainian veterans who has sought support from Veteran Hub. Last year, a Russian tank shell tore off his right leg in eastern Ukraine.

After the rest of his leg was amputated, he was moved to a hospital in Vinnytsia, where Veteran Hub employees asked him if he needed help. Traumatized by his injury and fearful over his future, he sought psychological and legal support through the group. He described how, for the first time after his injury, he felt understood.

He is stunned that Trump’s move has forced a veteran support group to close. “We are protecting our land and if you are sanctioning someone, you should sanction the aggressor — not the people who are protecting themselves, and especially not veterans.”

Veniamin, 28, a wounded Ukrainian soldier who spoke on condition that he be identified only by his first name, was wounded twice by Russian mines on the front line in 2022 and 2023 and has since had more than 20 surgeries.

He is recovering in Vinnytsia, where he relied on Veteran Hub to form a community of wounded soldiers, seek purpose and avoid the social isolation that has been destroying Ukrainian families since the war began.

Throughout his time on the front line, he said, he wore an American flag patch on his uniform. He doesn’t understand why Washington would cut programs that support people like him.

“When Trump was elected, I looked for an opportunity to write him a letter,” he said. “I understand that there are a significant number of Americans who are biased against Ukrainians. We simple Ukrainians have a very friendly attitude toward the USA, but for some reason, not all in the USA feel the same toward us.”

David L. Stern in Kyiv and John Hudson in Washington contributed to this report.
Keep in mind that "Our Democracy" was never at risk, only "Our Bureaucracy," and it's very upset at the moment.
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https://x.com/Banned_Bill/status/1853842945767592429 (archive.ph)
 
Genetic differences are better represented at larger scales. It's why you can still have a smart nigger, but compared to whites and asians, on a population wide basis, there are less smart niggers than smart chinks or whites. Thus, overall, it would be better to encourage the reproduction of beneficial genes (intelligence) rather than harmful genes (lowered executive function). Race serves as a shorthand to identify which set of genes are beneficial, relative to others.
Yet there are tons of commies in Europe compared to America, despite America being some dysgenic mongoloid hodgepodge according to some online commentators.
 
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