Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[National Defense Advocate]

The US and Russia are old superpowers. Different relationship to the rest of the world frankly. They will talk, and if there's progress, they'll let Ukraine know. If there isn't progress, things go on as usual.

Trump doesn't lie about wanting a RoI. He's a buisness man. It shouldn't be hard to understand for people lol. We gave them billions in weapons, we want billions in minerals back. Ukraine profits because they take a cut from the US investing in the country, and the US can tell China to fuck off with their rare earth minerals.

Europeans gave far, far more and they're not demanding repayment in the form of literally half of Ukrainians minerals.

 

[SBG]

Europeans gave far, far more and they're not demanding repayment in the form of literally half of Ukrainians minerals.

And when much of Europe was asked to have troops in Ukraine as a security guarantee most have said "fuck no".

 

[WelperHelper99]

Europeans gave far, far more and they're not demanding repayment in the form of literally half of Ukrainians minerals.

"Europeans" are not one group. They are a collection of countries. The US has given the most out of any country. We set the terms. That and we are the ones negotiating peace right now. And are the only ones who can.

 

[Fatsuit Shinji]

And when much of Europe was asked to have troops in Ukraine as a security guarantee most have said "fuck no".

Not just that, western and central Europe is actively refusing to rearm their own militaries via the EU bureaucracy. Leaving it to the United States and Eastern European countries to do the fighting and dying.

 

[Ghostse]

Would be better if they had actually invited Ukraine to the talks this week where it seems they're going to be absent. But I'm assuming the US is talking to Ukraine about what all they're wanting and is mostly trying to feel out what all Russia will claim to want to make them feel things are going as they wanted, at least publicly.

tl;dr: These are not peace talks, they are sanctions talks. They are talking peace framework and Trump wants to see if Russia will agree to anything palatable before starting peace talks because they will likely include some level of sanction easement.

From what has been explained to me:
Putin can't be seen meeting with the illegitimate Globohomo Stooge Zelensky for anything less than accepting his unconditional surrender. Meeting for peer peace talks would mean acknowledging the 3-day SMO has not been going to plan.

While the UK and Estonia have been the strongest nexus of support for Ukraine, for better or worse everyone cues off of the US for reasons already discussed to death, including primarily sanctions.

Thus Putin meets with the US in Saudi Arabia not because they are talking peace in Ukraine but because they are talking sanctions (naturally the primary talk will be about how events in Ukraine will impact said sanctions, but). This allows Putin to come out of the talks by saying "Well, we are utterly dominating in Ukraine, but the US has plead with us to provide them a way out of the ruinious sanctions they have put in Russia, who is stronk and barely noticed them. But because Russia is a peace loving nation, we thus cannot reject the plea of the economically runined US to go make a ceasefire with Ukraine (that we will violate in less than 10 years)".

From the US side, they want to see if Russia is willing to cry uncle yet; Its getting bad in Russia, but is it bad enough the guys at the top are squirming?

Spoiler: Long, gay detail

I have lamented that if Europe just cut off Russia, like actually cut them off, Russia's economy would collapse because they largely ran off of hydrocarbons before, but now their oil and gas sales are the only thing keeping them from going full depression-era Germany.

If Russia isn't willing to enter peace talks with a reasonable position, the US will threaten new and even worse sanctions. And threaten that they will actually be enforced.
This is why shitting on Eurocuck leaders was important before going to the meeting. Eurocucks constantly worm around sanctions (or straight up ignore them) and Trump is saying "the era of Europroles skirting sanctions is over. They touch russian oil or gas, immediate 25% tarrifs and I'll have everyone else do the same. You've seen me do it, you know I'll do it. And they know I'll do it. If you think shit is bad NOW just wait till the grey market dries up"

The talks are taking place in Saudi Arabia because sanction relief and time table for stopping the Russia economy's implosion will be discussed, and that means global oil prices and oil supply. If Russia needs to be stomped on some more, Saudia Arabia will be the one to flood the market with cheap oil so might as well have them close by.
It is also a hand out to Saudi Arabia to make them look important, hosting these talks.

Frankly, I'm rather unimpressed by any party involved.
[ ...]
Ultimately I think the goal for the Trump admin is to kick the can sufficiently down the road so the next guy can catch the blame, IE the Obama strategy.

I'm not either so far. But I am holding judgement until something solid comes out, because it wouldn't be the first time Trump has found a way to win I didn't see.

As I said before, I will be legit furious if something as utterly fucked as Minsk or the Iran nuke deal emerges. I'm just waiting before I go off half cocked and get angry over something that won't happen.

Has been funny though seeing people outraged today after finding out that the whole "50% of the minerals revenue" thing really meant "50% of the minerals revenue". Apparently there were many thinking it was a joke or exaggeration. I'm not even sure why it's supposed to be that horrific to do since it'd mean a massive amount of money for Ukraine that they were definitely not going to be getting if the US didn't invest heavily nor if Russia took over.

I'm not going to lie, I was a little shocked 50% meant 50%. I thought it was going to be more about securing leases & priority access to US companies.

The US and Russia are old superpowers. Different relationship to the rest of the world frankly. They will talk, and if there's progress, they'll let Ukraine know. If there isn't progress, things go on as usual.

Its also not like Trump is just going for utterly unilateral talks. He's talked to Ukraine, he knows their general temperature.
Additionally, as I said above, the talks are not about peace but about a framework for peace; can Russia be brought to acceptable terms, or does it need to be strangled with sanctions (that european "allies" will violate & ignore as much as possible) a little more till they're willing tap out.

Trump doesn't lie about wanting a RoI. He's a buisness man. It shouldn't be hard to understand for people lol. We gave them billions in weapons, we want billions in minerals back. Ukraine profits because they take a cut from the US investing in the country, and the US can tell China to fuck off with their rare earth minerals.

I'm not against securing the stocks, I'm a little more meh on the terms. While it is billions of US weapons, alot of it is surplus, but its been the Ukrainians doing the bleeding and dying. Its not like Afghanistan where it was US boots on the ground and incompetent local government, Ukraine is competently defending themselves. Doesn't leave me with a good feeling.

And when much of Europe was asked to have troops in Ukraine as a security guarantee most have said "fuck no".

As much as it pains me, as they are Eurocucks, given the UK has offered troops for the cause, if anyone deserves a slice of the pie it looks like it'll be the UK.

 

[Fatsuit Shinji]

Regarding U.S. military aid sent to Ukraine is Lend-Lease have been off the table during the Biden Administration precisely because of the provision of the need to pay back even just some of it. Which understandably torque Trump and other business oriented and history minded Americans something fierce. As in WWI and WWII United States send aid on that provision it will be in exchange of payment now and/or later after the war.

 

[Exterminatus]

The Ukrainian President does hope the agreement covers more than simply minerals, but also the benefit and security guarantees for Ukraine. Anyhow, a mine in Ukraine guarded by US troops is a fairly decent security guarantee. Recent history is full of various gents now under the soil who thought they could hassle Uncle Sam and a few of his soldiers.

This is why I'm starting to lean on the idea that Trump will try to talk Putin in leaving eastern Ukraine in exchange for Ukrainian forces leaving Kursk. Especially when it comes to the mineral rights deal, Trump/Ukraine can't exactly get to those minerals and other resources with Russia getting to keep all that land.

All these things happened before I became old enough to realize how fucked everything was going to be with no ability to do anything about it
Fucking boomers doomed us

If a boomer had a gun with only two bullets and was locked in a room with his grandson and Stalin, he'd shoot his own grandson twice

Regarding U.S. military aid sent to Ukraine is Lend-Lease have been off the table during the Biden Administration precisely because of the provision of the need to pay back even just some of it. Which understandably torque Trump and other business oriented and history minded Americans something fierce. As in WWI and WWII United States send aid on that provision it will be in exchange of payment now and/or later after the war.

Indeed, and it should be noted that we were fairly lenient with our British cousins after WW2. We didn't really put the boot down too hard on them because we knew they were economically as helpless as a newborn baby. The Brits did eventually pay us back in 2006. If the US actually did open up a full lend-lease system with Ukraine (assuming peace talks occur but ultimately fall through), we'd probably approach it in a similar fashion in regard to repayment, even Trump would understand Ukraine post-war would be a mess.

 

[Jewthulhu]

you need to check the range on Russian ICBMs.

I chose the central US not just for distance, but because our silos are located there

The main takeaway is: The US could remove Russia's ability to launch on the US with conventional weapons. Russia's Airdefense has been proven fake and gay against Soviet aircraft let along stealth bombers. Again, assuming the US is willing to just shrug as Europeans are vaporized along with thier neglected militaries (and term Alaskans as honorary Europeans), the US could just say "Surrender or the next salvo is mushroom clouds" with Russia unable to do anything TO THE US in response.

Again, with the complexity of a total counterforce operation against a near-peer, the chances that at least a few warheads survive that are capable of hitting the mainland US are high.

Don't get me wrong, I'm a proponent of counterforce as a nuclear strategy, but people should understand its limitations. The dream of a single, decapitating blow is unrealistic practically (it's also potentially unsound strategically, but that's another story since we're just talking hypotheticals).

 

[Ghostse]

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I chose the central US not just for distance, but because our silos are located there

I did forget about the UR-100Ns becasue I thought those had been decommed, but I see that like the T-62 they have been given more time to be of service to the glorious USSR Russian Federation. Except for R-36/R-28, they are using Silo-launched estimates for mobile-launcher based missiles. In any case, Russia only has about 200 missiles able to hit the US. (though I'll grant you that's fucky because of all their "I'm not touching you" part reuse which means they could assemble more on fairly short notice by mixing and matching parts from civilian rockets.)

Spoiler: Hair splitting

The RS24/SS-27 Mod 1 &2 are able to launch from silos, which is where Russian range estimates come from, but operate mainly from mobile launchers, where range and accuracy suffer - I have heard 50% to 75% of listed range but tbcf I only have the word of some guy on the internet who seemed to know what he was on about. (these are nearly identical missiles just with a MIRV delivery vehicle instead of single warhead) In any case, they have about 100 missiles between the two versions.

I DID forget about UR-100N/SS-19, but Russia has less than 10; I guess plans for the decom are on hold.

The R-36/SATAN I's were discussed previous and that's Russia's primary reach out and touch back, with the RS-28 set to replace it when it stops beating the US to blowing up its silos. The R-36s are in bad shape, past their service life, and the facilities to make new components are in.... Ukraine. There are about 60 silos left, and something like 75% of the fleet is past its service life. But even if they do only have 15 operational silos, the US won't know which ones are which so for a first strike decap, we can count them all.

So, Russia has less than 200 missiles able to hit the US, primary grouped into two areas. That means 3 silos per B-2, and then hunt down about 100 mobile launchers with F-35s, and Russia's ability to hit the US is gone.

 

[WelperHelper99]

Its also not like Trump is just going for utterly unilateral talks. He's talked to Ukraine, he knows their general temperature.
Additionally, as I said above, the talks are not about peace but about a framework for peace; can Russia be brought to acceptable terms, or does it need to be strangled with sanctions (that european "allies" will violate & ignore as much as possible) a little more till they're willing tap out.

Precisely. And one thing to consider, even if this framework for peace is established: it will take time to hammer out a agreement. They are NOT going in with the NOW NOW NOW mindset. They want to see if peace is fucking possible first.

I'm not against securing the stocks, I'm a little more meh on the terms. While it is billions of US weapons, alot of it is surplus, but its been the Ukrainians doing the bleeding and dying. Its not like Afghanistan where it was US boots on the ground and incompetent local government, Ukraine is competently defending themselves. Doesn't leave me with a good feeling.

I see it like this: war is not cheap. Even if you win, you need to invest for the next war with lessons learned. Right now that war seems to be coming from China if nothing changes. If we want to prevent another Ukraine, we need independence from Chinese Rare earth minerals. Total independence.

For example, tungsten. If you weld using Tig, you've used a Chinese tungsten electrode. That's not good. This mining deal happens, Ukraine makes money post war and doesn't look like post war poverty Britain, and the west gets to cut the chinks off, and a American presence, likely a armed one, is established in Ukraine, making future aggression less likely.

Circling back to investing in our weapons, Russia has captured a lot of western tech at this point. I expect to see a knock off Javelin in the near future from Russia, Iran, the Norks, and China. The money from this agreement can go right back into making countermeasures and better missile systems that make the Javelin shit bricks. We give those to allies, and suddenly, the prospect of war goes down. That's my logic.

 

[Skylavijas]

Made me think of Balding's comments on China and Europe.

Damn... thanks for calling me out on my BS

 

[No. 7 cat]

Hey now, don't knock the moskvitch. My dad used to drive a 408 (or maybe a 412) back in the day. He particularly appreciated the cold weather shutter on the radiator, though he had less use for the ice fishing hole in the footwell.

The fruitly sounding (robbed of half everything by his ex) car reviewer Doug de Muro slated it (on phone so no video) I read it was a very solid vehicle for poor roads with a long travel suspension. They were sold in Western Europe with Perkins diesel engines and used as taxis.

The supposed Trump deal for Ukraine is supposedly a US option for half of everything, not just rare earth's (which be good as it means clearing out Russkies and installing a US garrison at a facility) but sources are unclear and any deal is in draft. If the deal is half of everything for the US, that'd be horrifying, but 'if' has a long tail. Like many things it's obscure for now.

 

[NewFagWhore]

Ironically enough, giving 50% of everything to US and being colonized by uncle sam is a 50/50 gamble, it turned out great for Japan and South Korea, not so great for Afghanistan and Iraq. I'd take my chances though, because the other choice is just be dependent on EU, which is lol to say the least and lmao to be more precise.

 

[No. 7 cat]

Ironically enough, giving 50% of everything to US and being colonized by uncle sam is a 50/50 gamble, it turned out great for Japan and South Korea, not so great for Afghanistan and Iraq. I'd take my chances though, because the other choice is just be dependent on EU, which is lol to say the least and lmao to be more precise.

Joining the EU has been great for those eastern Eurpean countries. Even Orbán friends like EU structural funds. 50% of all would be a bad deal.

 

[MG-34]

Ironically enough, giving 50% of everything to US and being colonized by uncle sam is a 50/50 gamble, it turned out great for Japan and South Korea, not so great for Afghanistan and Iraq. I'd take my chances though, because the other choice is just be dependent on EU, which is lol to say the least and lmao to be more precise.

It works great when you aren't some backwards inbred Muslim shithole. Post WW2 Japan and South Korea being occupied by the USSR or Mao's China would have made both counties Cambodia tier hellholes. With Ukraine and the current climate their biggest risk would be some EU or liberal US government trying to force 3rd world immigration in Ukraine. If the Russians occupy them they get the same thing though, just instead of jeets and Turks they'll get Yakuts and Dagestanis.

 

[No. 7 cat]

It works great when you aren't some backwards inbred Muslim shithole. Post WW2 Japan and South Korea being occupied by the USSR or Mao's China would have made both counties Cambodia tier hellholes. With Ukraine and the current climate their biggest risk would be some EU or liberal US government trying to force 3rd world immigration in Ukraine. If the Russians occupy them they get the same thing though, just instead of jeets and Turks they'll get Yakuts and Dagestanis.

The Red Horde sent by Putin is very much that; the thrash of Russia, plus central Asians, light bulb heads and whoever they fool or kidnap. The EU has meant extraordinary economic progress for Euope's periphery. Rule by Russia means poverty and backwardness, basically joining Nigeria with snow.

 

[Oxyjen]

 

[R00T]

>Calling it peace talks when the people being invaded aren’t there

We’re getting into absolute clown territory.

 

[Jewthulhu]

>Calling it peace talks when the people being invaded aren’t there

We’re getting into absolute clown territory.

There's more than one reason why I invoked the Munich Agreement in one of my posts.

 

[NKVD qt]

>Calling it peace talks when the people being invaded aren’t there

We’re getting into absolute clown territory.

There is like a 70% chance this is going to be a ginormous shitshow. Lets hope evil Eddie doesn't flip the switch.