Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[No. 7 cat]

Embassies are tolerated spy orgs of a sort from ambassador to military and commercial attachées. The pair of Ukrainians expelled by Hungary would likely be spies of a sort even if
Orbánites are lying scam artists.

 

[Snekposter]

Embassies are tolerated spy orgs of a sort from ambassador to military and commercial attachées. The pair of Ukrainians expelled by Hungary would likely be spies of a sort even if
Orbánites are lying scam artists.

Well, you can't do shit to someone who has diplomatic credentials except revoke them, even in cases of outright murder. The USA could catch a Russian diplomat (or a spy pretending to be a diplomat complete with ID) with the complete plans for the F-35 shoved in the folds of his vodka gut and the worst we'd be able to do is declare him persona non grata and boot his ass back to Moscow... assuming he didn't try and switch sides to avoid the inevitable tea poisoning or mysterious fall that awaited him back home as the price of failure.

 

[Least Concern]

Either way, these guys had it easy, they get to just walk away, the spies caught in Ukraine in the morning according to most articles were sentenced to life in prison and confiscation of all property for charge of treason.

I can't find anything after a brief search saying they've been sentenced already. That definitely would be kangaroo court type stuff if so. I'm guessing what you read is what sort of sentencing may await them if they're found guilty, but so long as they go through a fair and functioning court system that's still weeks if not months away. If what latinlover posted above about the extent of their spying is true, it sounds more like they were low-level shlubs than James Bond types, so they might just get a couple of years plus deportation just to ease the diplomatic friction with Hungary.

 

[Seethan Ralph]

Were there any cool fireworks in Moscow, or nothing ever happened?

 

[latinlover]

I can't find anything after a brief search saying they've been sentenced already. That definitely would be kangaroo court type stuff if so. I'm guessing what you read is what sort of sentencing may await them if they're found guilty, but so long as they go through a fair and functioning court system that's still weeks if not months away. If what latinlover posted above about the extent of their spying is true, it sounds more like they were low-level shlubs than James Bond types, so they might just get a couple of years plus deportation just to ease the diplomatic friction with Hungary.

You're correct, I misread and the article was theorizing their potential sentences.

I think nothing short of a change of guard on the Hungarian side will ease the diplomatic friction though, international military espionage for some chump change is gay aswell- hoping they get the book thrown at them.

It's a shame this will probably leave a bad taste in the general populace's mouth, souring the news of Róbert Brovdi (birds of Magyar) being awarded 'hero of Ukraine' just yesterday which was a step towards better a relationship between the ethnicities.

Sacred clay memeing aside, revisionism is fucking gay and nobody above an iq of 70 in Hungary would think annexing previously detached regions (which are often the least developed economically in their specific countries) would be good for anyone at all, it's just larping by lobotomized Orbanites and turbowignats.

 

[No. 7 cat]

B4Ukraine and its partners have consistently pushed for tougher EU action to end the flow of fossil fuel money to Russia. As a testament to this ongoing advocacy, EU Energy Commissioner @dan_joergensen recently referenced Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) data when spotlighting Europe’s continued energy imports from Russia.We welcome the new roadmap to fully end the EU’s dependency on Russian oil, gas, and nuclear energy by 2027. But without turning its proposals into binding EU law, Europe’s reliance on Russian fossil fuels will persist. The roadmap also falls short on concrete measures to close the refining loophole that funnelled €3.5 billion to the Kremlin last year.

source

EU Energy Commissioner Jorgensen expresses embarrassment at EU monies for Russia via fossil fuel purchases and substantial measures (short of existing measures which have massively reduced Russian market share) are still awaited (also not too much can be done regarding willing catamites of Russia like the current Hungarian and Slovak leaders who make a notable part of the figure).

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A contrast of the warm greetings between sordid turd worlder mud despots Putin and Lula to the lula and Zelensky greeting. lula looked unhappy meeting someone not as foul and corrupt as him. Bolsonaro was no angel and had the same Putinophilia, but the judicial measures in Brazil seem a bit tendentious (altho I suppose outside the US a Jan 6 stunt would be illegal and Bolsonaro's one was hard cringe which is a crime).

 

[Least Concern]

Were there any cool fireworks in Moscow, or nothing ever happened?

Nothing happened. I personally didn't think anything would because the heightened security in the area means that if the Ukes tried something, it might have failed in embarrassing fashion, and the civilian crowd plus delegations from other countries meant that if they were successful, there was a heightened chance of civilian casualties or pissing off a nominally-uninvolved government after some of their delegation got fragged. But the Ukes did the "cannot guarantee their safety" thing and freaked everyone out just enough and that had a value of its own.

 

[No. 7 cat]

Nothing happened. I personally didn't think anything would because the heightened security in the area means that if the Ukes tried something, it might have failed in embarrassing fashion, and the civilian crowd plus delegations from other countries meant that if they were successful, there was a heightened chance of civilian casualties or pissing off a nominally-uninvolved government after some of their delegation got fragged. But the Ukes did the "cannot guarantee their safety" thing and freaked everyone out just enough and that had a value of its own.

There were bothsiders there like Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan who are relatively friendly to Ukraine and hypocritically Russians would exploit civilian deaths. A somewhat common source is Russian AA rockets falling back and hitting civilian areas. Still an unfrightened Lula, Fico and Orbán seems like an opportunity missed.



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Another aspect was that Orbán was looking at taking Transcarpathia from Ukraine if Putin's invasion had prospered. This invasion plan should see Orbán government suspended from EU voting, but it won't happen. Likely the hope is that the dismal poll ratings will see Peter Magyar take his place, even with the tilted voting system.

 

[cybertoaster]

Were there any cool fireworks in Moscow, or nothing ever happened?

"Our friends" just say you're gonna backstab them already, be honest for once...

 

[ToEnsureVerification]

Were there any cool fireworks in Moscow, or nothing ever happened?

Nothing happened on the day and that was the best possible outcome. Both sides still maintain a sort of escalation ladder.

Could the Ukies have launched a saturation attack on the parade with drones? Most probably. They murdered a top general after the Kyiv bombings in a spooky hit. Would have been a good idea to do the fireworks? They would have hit civilian infrastructure, killed civilians, not destroyed that much military gear, and forced Russia to Chimp out with their heavy ordinance against cities, which would have forced them to used their limited Air Defense and would have too resulted in dead civilians.

The smart movie in this case was to let Putin have his silly parade while only attacking military targets.

 

[Corette]

Nothing happened on the day and that was the best possible outcome. Both sides still maintain a sort of escalation ladder.

Could the Ukies have launched a saturation attack on the parade with drones? Most probably. They murdered a top general after the Kyiv bombings in a spooky hit. Would have been a good idea to do the fireworks? They would have hit civilian infrastructure, killed civilians, not destroyed that much military gear, and forced Russia to Chimp out with their heavy ordinance against cities, which would have forced them to used their limited Air Defense and would have too resulted in dead civilians.

The smart movie in this case was to let Putin have his silly parade while only attacking military targets.

Ukrainians also need to brace for that inevitable post-"truce" missile/drone attack.

 

[Ghostse]

Nothing happened on the day and that was the best possible outcome. Both sides still maintain a sort of escalation ladder.

Could the Ukies have launched a saturation attack on the parade with drones? Most probably. They murdered a top general after the Kyiv bombings in a spooky hit. Would have been a good idea to do the fireworks? They would have hit civilian infrastructure, killed civilians, not destroyed that much military gear, and forced Russia to Chimp out with their heavy ordinance against cities, which would have forced them to used their limited Air Defense and would have too resulted in dead civilians.

The smart movie in this case was to let Putin have his silly parade while only attacking military targets.

I think the best thing would have been a drone strike right as the parade was starting to get the Russian AAD to launch and trigger a delay but:

For the parade, at the front and Moscow, Russian crews were at max readiness with command up their ass and down their necks. Everyone was watching, no one was drunk, because if there was a fuck up heads were going to roll and everyone was making sure it wasn't going to be their heads.

You would have needed to commit maximum resources for, at best, minimal result.

 

[No. 7 cat]

Joint Statement by the Leaders of France, Germany, Poland, the United Kingdom, and Ukraine Following the Meeting in Kyiv.

On Saturday, May 10, 2025, the leaders of France, Germany, Poland, the United Kingdom and Ukraine met in Kyiv.

They agreed that starting Monday, May 12, there should be a full and unconditional ceasefire for at least 30 days.

They concurred that an unconditional ceasefire by definition cannot be subject to any conditions. If Russia calls for such conditions, this can only be considered as an effort to prolong the war and undermine diplomacy.

They demanded that the ceasefire must be comprehensive – in the air, at sea, and on land.
They underlined that it requires effective monitoring, which could be successfully implemented in close coordination with the United States.

They agreed that the ceasefire should last for at least 30 days to create room for diplomacy. During this period, diplomatic work should focus on outlining the security, political and humanitarian foundations of peace.

They welcomed that the call for a ceasefire and meaningful negotiations is supported by both Europe and the United States.

They underlined the crucial importance of strengthening Ukraine’s Defence and Security Forces as the primary guarantee of Ukraine’s sovereignty and security. A key element of security guarantees to Ukraine should also be a reassurance force (Contingent).

They agreed that if Russia refuses a full and unconditional ceasefire, stronger sanctions should be applied to its banking and energy sectors, targeting fossil fuels, oil and the shadow fleet.

They agreed to pass a strong 17th EU sanctions package and to coordinate it with sanctions imposed by the United Kingdom and Norway, as well as by the United States.

They agreed to continue working on the effective use of frozen Russian assets and to discuss this at the next G7 summit.

They expressed their readiness to further strengthen Ukraine’s defence, especially the Ukrainian army. This should include funding defence resilience and investment in arms production in both Ukraine and in European countries in the framework of joint projects.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy official Twitter acct

Given Russia's demand that foreign aid to Ukraine completely end before any ceasefire and given how Russia broke every ceasefire it agreed right back to its invasion of Georgia in 2008 (and in Chechnya too after the FSB bombed apartments and blamed it on Chechens), it's likely nothing will happen for now. Some in the thread disparage EU aid (altho the continued, albeit reduced, purchase of Russian hydrocarbons does severely detract from it) but it is essential to Ukraine. Now while there are European systems that could handle the more advanced Russian ballistic missiles (like the Franco-Italian SAMP/T medium range air defense system or IRIS-T SLM, both of the European Sky Shield Initiative) they do not exist in the quantities needed. The venerable Patriot not replaceable as of now, although Ukraine are working hard on their own systems. Anyhow, putting the 30 day ceasefire out there and threatening further sanctions (which hopefully means the proper enforcement of existing ones which will means sanctions busting trade with Europe via Turkey, Kyrgyzstan et al. will have to the stopped) is a useful show of solidarity with Ukraine.

Now one feature of this war is how older US systems ranging from the Hawk AA to Gulf War 1 Patriots have provided a very effective counter to vastly over-hyped Russian systems (India is probably finding out that the S-400 is over-priced crap and Turkey surely regrets purchasing a system that got them kicked out of the F-35 program), and one of them is Vietnam War era (entered service in 1962 with the Army of the Republic of Vietnam). This video details various upgrades from automatic turret, electronic warfare systems and cope cage done by the 13th Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine who operate in Kharkiv:

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[Ghostse]

Anyhow, putting the 30 day ceasefire out there and threatening further sanctions (which hopefully means the proper enforcement of existing ones which will means sanctions busting trade with Europe via Turkey, Kyrgyzstan et al. will have to the stopped) is a useful show of solidarity with Ukraine.

That's the shit Trump should have done for his Day 1: Ceasefire or get wrecked. I'm holding accolades till they actually deliver but that's a strong move.
Because while the Euros are starting to make actual serious efforts at actually complying with the spirit not simply the letter of sanctions (and rebuilding their defense industries) I have some doubts on the actual delivery.

I am 99.99995% sure Russia is going to violate the ceasefire, they are supposedly building a big summer offensive (you know, take two towns at the cost of 70,000 casualties) and may has been kick off time.

I'm curious about how they intend to sanction Russia's under-insured fleet of impending environmental catastrophes. Unless Denmark/Sweden intend to actually close the Baltic.

Re: M113 I am an a 113 simp, but I'm very curious about how well its going to hold up even with a CROWS bolted on. The main advantage of the 113 is it is light enough to float and trying to uparmor it is going to lose that.

 

[Fatsuit Shinji]

Ability to float is almost entirely an actively detrimental function to the vehicle, crew and passengers. Better off without it since it is only useful where there's absolutely no opposition. Even than it's rolling the dice to see whether it gets flooded, sunk and anyone on board drowned.

M113 is hilariously adaptable to do almost any other role. U.S. Army already tested CROWS on M113s back in Trump's 1st term. Installing and testing it was an uneventful task.

 

[Snekposter]

Re: M113 I am an a 113 simp, but I'm very curious about how well its going to hold up even with a CROWS bolted on. The main advantage of the 113 is it is light enough to float and trying to uparmor it is going to lose that.

One of the main advantages of the BMP is that it can float, and we can see how well that's worked out for it in Ukraine. Trading flotation and even a small degree of mobility for armor is the right thing to do in this conflict.

M113 is hilariously adaptable to do almost any other role. U.S. Army already tested CROWS on M113s back in Trump's 1st term. Installing and testing it was an uneventful task.

The Aussies even turned it into a light tank by sticking both Saladin and Scorpion turrets on top of it, the Argies have a couple air defense versions and one with a radar, and the USA even came out with its own IFV variant that we passed over in favor of the Bradley, even though a lot of other people went for it due to price. The M113 is pretty much the pickup truck of tracked vehicles in terms of ease of use and ease of adaptation.

 

[Optimus Prime]

So, apparently Putin is saying he's open to having talks with Ukraine again, probably the same ol delaying tactic now that Kursk got invaded again.

 

[SBG]

So, apparently Putin is saying he's open to having talks with Ukraine again, probably the same ol delaying tactic now that Kursk got invaded again.

Probably a way to pretend they're willing to work towards a peace deal without having to actually engage in a ceasefire the way countries are demanding be done or else Russia gets stronger sanctions against it.

I doubt France, the UK and others would buy Putin's nonsense, so really is on Trump as to whether he'd be willing to do stronger sanctions or not. Since he has been more than a little reluctant to do anything that might upset Putin.

 

[National Defense Advocate]

Probably a way to pretend they're willing to work towards a peace deal without having to actually engage in a ceasefire the way countries are demanding be done or else Russia gets stronger sanctions against it.

I doubt France, the UK and others would buy Putin's nonsense, so really is on Trump as to whether he'd be willing to do stronger sanctions or not. Since he has been more than a little reluctant to do anything that might upset Putin.

Trump is becoming incredibly irritated lately, from walking away from peace talks, straight up ignoring Israel, I genuinely think he's done fucking around.
Or maybe not, we'll see.

 

[SBG]

Trump is becoming incredibly irritated lately, from walking away from peace talks, straight up ignoring Israel, I genuinely think he's done fucking around.
Or maybe not, we'll see.

He's still refusing to act like Russia is attacking Ukraine and the talk of wanting to walk away from peace talks is a bad sign as he never even tried ramping up pressure on Russia first even though he was willing to when against Ukraine.

That he's irritated seems more an issue of majority of people not seeing him as winning on all these topics he thought he was a genius on, whether it was trade, Greenland, Iran, Russia and so on.

So I feel like the test of whether Trump is serious on wanting to ramp up any kind of pressure on Russia will be if he suddenly supports Lindsey Graham's sanctions bill against Russia or if he just tries something minor on his own like putting a few Russian companies on a naughty list.