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I just discovered that certain American gambling companies have made a business out of “real life” betting categories. I wonder if eventually there might be legislation to mitigate the obvious conflict of interest bound to arise here with politicians. Sports betting on its face has a built in limitation. In the absence of full on match fixing, nobody truly knows how a game is going to go. While some autists are REALLY good at predicting that kind of thing, that is because they’re very skilled, not because they have some hidden knowledge (again, we assume the absence of match fixing). But politics betting is different because to some extent there are people who unambiguously know how things are going.
I would like to propose a hypothetical scenario here. Let’s say there’s a disarmament negotiation going on with Iran, and the betting market gets really hot. Now let’s say a diplomat just witnessed a private negotiation that was absolutely and utterly botched, to the extent that he can be sure that the deal won’t happen. So he tells his wife’s relative to take out a big loan to bet against the deal. Has he broken the law? How on earth would he be punished for this if he got caught?