I am torn on Iran. Sand niggers of any stripe cannot be trusted with nuclear weapons (Israel, India and Pakistan are enough all ready). Iran is not Iraq. They've made documented and extensive efforts towards building nuclear weapons through their own facilities and technology exchange with North Korea. so the threat is real. they've likely had the ability to build a weapon for some years now (Stuxnet wrecked their enrichment facilities in 2010 but that was 15 years ago). But likely have not been able to produce a designed small enough to be deliverable via Ballistic missile, which is the only way they could feasible use it against any of their neighbors. but miniaturization would only be a matter of time.
Iran has also demonstrably been instrumental in the proliferation of EFP IEDs in the Iraq war that killed thousands of US troops in that war, and funding insurgents.
But I am 100% against a ground Invasion and occupation, I do not believe there is the political will to do it correctly (Total war). it would be another forever war. Thankfully I do not think an invasion is particularly likely.
What i could support is a Air campaign from the USAF and USN to eradicate Iran's nuclear production facilities, and i think, based on the movements of USAF tankers and fighters (the largest surge of aircraft to the middle east since 2003) that this is the course the president is likely to take.
The Israelis, whatever your opinion on them, have proven that the Iranian military's Air defense network is non-existent and through target assassinations of military leadership have locked the Iranians into a decision making paralysis. quite simply the Iranians are not as scary as everyone thought. But the Israeli air force cannot finish the job without heavy bombers carrying the largest bunker busting bombs.
So i think the US will likely strike Iran's underground enrichment facilities with GBU-57 MOP delivered by the B-2 stealth bomber along with a SEAD campaign to further soften the Iranian skies. possible other goals could be sinking the entire Iranian navy (again) and further destruction of defense industry.
I can live with that. I might even agree with that. anything more I cannot endorse, and would be a huge boondoggle like Iraq and Afghanistan were.
