2025 Israel vs Iran War

[Rodeo Roadrunner]

They have an approximate understanding of the facility, how it was built, how deep, and what sort of terrain it's under and how the blast from such explosions propagates. His advisors/planners have most certainly ran the math and would know what level of damage would be inside triple chucking the things on both sides of the mountain top, and they have no reason to share those simulations with you. It may not be completely, structurally destroyed as it is a large facility, but they'd know what'd happen to anything inside, and it wouldn't be pretty for anything or anyone in it.

They probably had the Pentagon wargamers running simulations of the facilities and bombing patterns for over a decade. Attacks against Fordo in particular have been planned for a long time, and since the DOD has nothing better to do than spend our tax dollars, every single permutation of attacks against the facility was no doubt strategized and simulated. I wouldn't be surprised if they borrowed one of the nuclear weapons simulator super computers to run some calcs for this years ago. Additionally, the B-2 pilots have also probably run attacks against this facility for YEARS in the simulators.

Could I be ascribing way to much planning and foresight to the Pentagon over this? Sure, but it genuinely wouldn't surprise me for this strike in particular they spent an incredible amount of time and money to get correct. The B-2s are ACTUAL 'wunderwaffe'; they only bring them out when they really know they need them, as every single time they leave the hangars it gives Russia and China more opportunities to learn about them. For them to commit 7 of them for this one attack tells me they had an unbelievable amount of confidence in this particular attack, and they knew exactly how many munitions to use, and exactly where to put them.

 

[Mound Dweller]

The fanfiction some of you guys write to make up these hypothetical scenarios is something to behold.

The sports team bullshit is gay and retarded and makes me MATI, why the fuck can people not just bask in the glory of WAAAAAGH without making it a homosexual copefest for once? Stop being so demoralized already, if your side took an L just own it. I take 'em every day and you don't see me seething over it with pure b-but muh sedimentary layers bollocks.

 

[3-2-1836]

I want guncam footage of F-35s and F-22s dogfighting with F-14s/F-4s/F-5s.

Has there been any evidence of the Iranian Air Force even attempting to respond? The sole evidence of their existance in this conflict was an F4 Phantom flying CAP in Mashhad on Day 1 when Iran thought it was too far for Israeli jets to hit.

 

[Ghostse]

I think you are looking at the photos backwards.
View attachment 7543916
The blue scree seen in that picture is not blown out from the entrance to the tunnels. The tunnel entrances are facing the other way. The tunnel complex extends from those impact points and connects to the center prong of the trident shaped road in the lower right.

The lower blue color swath seems to follow the presumed path of the underground tunnels. Not a shotgun discharge blasting out from the tunnel entrances. Something stirred up the surface above the tunnels enough to displace the normal top layer of dirt and reveal the underlying layer color. The same color seen in the scree piles.

I'll believe I'm looking at them wrong. I thought some people were saying the collapsed tunnels had some ejected material the color of the mountain's innards but I'll also believe I miss read that while trying to keep up.

This had to be a measurable seismic event. The only question is who or what would be listening for it? And who controls those seismographs? How far would a very shallow event radiate or be detectable?

sorry I think I had an incomplete thought there so I'll expand:

If you collapsed the facility in one go, the bombing and collapse would be a single event and, given its war and not a controlled detonation, virutually impossible to tell if the facility collapsed as there would be only one event.
(in a controlled detonation, you eventually know what the waveform is supposed to look like for the ammount of explosives you've used and if its not in those parameters (too tall, too wide, too much taper) something happened to cause that)

If the Facility lingered and then then collapsed later, there would be follow up seismic events. Its very, very unlikely (but certainly far from impossible) that even 30Kt would be enough to fully trigger an immediate, catastrophic collapse. Its more likely that if the facility was damaged to that level you would have a much smaller but still registrable event as the inside of the mountain collapsed and settled. The fact this hasn't been reported makes me believe that you have had some of the walls and ceilings crack and fall down, but nothing you couldn't just scoop out - it would take years even if you forget about the radiation risk, but you wouldn't need to get the heavy tunneling machines back down there, just bulldozers, backhoes and dumptrucks.

But again, I'm not a geologist. I just have had occassion to work with them and that's my take from what I got via osmosis from them.

Re: Seismographs:
There are seismographs all over the world running 24/7 that usually report up to some academic network. Everyone participates because geology doesn't respect lines on maps. Pretty much every college and many of the larger highschools have them.

Sound - that is, seismic waves when its in the ground - travels very well and very far and a significant portion of rock shifting should be detectable in Tehran or Baghdad, providing there isn't a facility with a seismograph closer.

Like you would see a big (or maybe few big) needle but very short jumps from the explosives, and then if the facility collapsed you'd see smaller but longer waves.

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

It's impressive that some fairly sizable Twitter accounts are still not just denying significant damage was done, but are flat out in denial that B-2s were involved.
View attachment 7543731

Armchair Copelord has been posting L's ever since Kiev did not fall on Day 3 of the SMO...

7 B2's, that is wild. There is a parallel universe out there in the multiverse where this mission failed and we lost more then a third of our stealth bomber fleet.

This is the parallel universe Putin wishes he were living in right now

While Iran was using just your bog standard Russian air defense. Israel has been dunking on Iran unmolested for 2 weeks now, and the USA just flew over their most secured and protected facilities undetected and blew them to smithereens.

Iran was using a mix of 1) really fucking old US air-defense given back before the fall of the shah (MIM-23 Hawk) 2) a few older Russian AA, 3) oddball homemade air-defense systems

Not for nothing, but I think a lot of things had to happen for Iran to get to this point. Syria getting swept from the board a few months ago, Russia/China and to a lesser extent pakistan not really helping them like one would expect.

I'm not sure if Iran is just a big old bitch, or if some other stuff was at play, not sure if we will ever really know. It's curious though.

This 100%
Israel's ventures in Gaza and southern Lebanon were to Israel's advantage rather than against. Despite being bogged down in Gaza, both fronts effectively neutralized the ability of either proxy group to launch hundreds of short-range rockets on-demand.

The fall of Syria was obviously huge, and basically severed the "Shiite Crescent" and helped expand a potential air corridor to Iran.

Iraq, while nominally pro-Iranian, is functionally a wild-west state. Furthermore, the pro-Iranian Shias are mostly concentrated in the south while nothern Iraq (where Israel would be flying) is dominated moreso by Sunnis (who generally hate Iran) and Kurds (who hate everyone).

The only big proxy group left standing in any capacity are the Houthis, who even then suffered attrition of their air defenses and missile stockpiles.

 

[autistic dog]

It's actually hilarious you think Iran, who has been posturing itself as "about to bring the big one" every night since Israel began bombing them, sabre rattling and pumping themselves up no matter how badly they keep getting fucked in the face by explosives. has "no reason to deny his claim"

The Iranian regime has been doing little more than trying to posture and project a tough strong face as Israel kills off military staff sometimes within days of taking the position from the last guy Israel blew up. and America bombs their shit in with zero resistance met. They will of course deny Trump's claim because trumps claim shows them as weak, and they will never accept that.

The fanfiction some of you guys write to make up these hypothetical scenarios is something to behold.

So in this case if hypothetically New York City was evaporated in nuclear hellfire killing millions of liberals and their wall street masters you would say it is near impossible that explosion could be caused in any way by Iran?

 

[Myrtle the Turtle]

Faggot "experts" have come out saying the bombing was a failure:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1936955686174466551.html
https://archive.is/vfjkp

Why am I so unimpressed by these strikes? Israel and the US have failed to target significant elements of Iran's nuclear materials and production infrastructure. RISING LION and MIDNIGHT HAMMER are tactically brilliant, but may turn out to be strategic failures.

Netanyahu's justification for conducting this strike was that "Iran has produced enough highly enriched uranium for nine atom bombs -- nine." He refers to Iran's stockpile of ~400 kg of 60% U-235 which, if further enriched, would be enough for 9-10 weapons.

Let's consider. The 400 kg of HEU was largely stored in underground tunnels near the Isfahan Uranium Conversion Facility. Despite extensive Israeli and US attacks the facility, there does not seem to have been any effort to destroy these tunnels or the material that was in them.

No one even knows where the HEU is now! @rafaelmgrossi says Iran moved it. Lil' @marcorubio says nothing can move in Iran. But trucks are moving in Iran. Trucks and heavy equipment showed up at least two days ago to seal the tunnels to protect them. @planet took a picture.

Trucks also showed up at the Fordow FEP the day before the strike, possibly to relocate sensitive equipment, and certainly to cover those entrances with dirt. Iran just isn't a no-drive zone at the moment.

To be fair, some Trumpkins acknowledge Iran still has the material. @JDVance says they're going to "have conversations with the Iranians about" it. The talking point is that the US has knocked out Iran's ability to further enrich it and convert it to metal, so its fine.

IT'S NOT FINE. Yes, the strikes on the enrichment plants at Qom (Fordow FEP) and Natanz (PFEP and FEP) appear successful. But there has been no effort to strike the enormous underground facility next to Natanz where Iran can make more centrifuges and maybe do other things.

In 2022, Iran moved a centrifuge production line to "the heart of the mountain" there. This facility is huge -- we estimated 10,000 m2 or more -- and we don't really know what else it might house (like enrichment or conversion).

Also, Iran recently announced a "new enrichment facility in a secure location" and told the @iaea it was ready to start installing centrifuges. The @iaea was set to inspect the facility, near Isfahan, before the bombing. It hasn't been bombed AFAIK.

Let me say again: Iran said it had a new enrichment facility. The @iaeaorg was about to go see it. But before that could happen, Israel struck other facilities in Iran -- but not the new one. See the problem? This means Iran has retained 400 kg of 60% HEU, the ability to manufacture centrifuges, and one, possibly two underground enrichment sites. That is also to say nothing of possible secret sites, which opponents of the JCPOA used to invoke all the freaking time. Let's say Iran decides to rush a bomb. Iran can install ~1.5 cascades a week. In six weeks, it could have 9 cascades of IR-6 machines. It would take those machines about 60 days to enrich all 400 kg to WGU. Altogether that's about five months although IMMV.

Look, I get it. Watching bombers conduct an >11,000 km precision bombing raid is awesome. I am the sort of wierdo who happily read a 528 page book about the first Black Buck raid of the Falklands War in 1982. I really do get it.

But what does it say of two of the most amazing military operations in modern memory are still unable to fully eliminate Iran's nuclear program? I think that's proof that this is tactical brilliance may be in service of a foolhardy strategy.

RISING LION and MIDNIGHT HAMMER have not slowed the Iranian program nearly as much as the JCPOA. We hold diplomacy to much higher standards than bombing. The same people who endlessly complained about the JCPOA "sunsetting" are now happy to delay Iran's bomb by much less.

This is why I said the strike is about regime change. As late as May, @DefenseIntel said Iran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program. When asked about that, @marcorubio said intel was "irrelevant." It's only irrelevant if the problem is the regime, not the program.

We ought to judge this strike by its real purpose, not the legal camouflage of preemptive self-defense. If the strike leaves the current regime, or something very much like it, in power with a nuclear option then it will have been a strategic failure.

This is peak "if you kill your enemies, you loose" energy.

Sites like Fordow and Natanz are not popping up every 6 months. They take years and billions to dig out & build. Even if you assume Iran got out all their centrifuges, warehouses, and parts have been destroyed, immobile piping and ductwork, technology, scientists, and expensive redundant electrical and failsafe systems are now smoldering in ashes. Resources like missiles and anti-aircraft weapons protecting the site have also been destroyed.

To say that this means nothing for stopping the nuclear program because Iran has other sites is breathtakingly retarded. With that logic, I guess Iran just put up all those guard towers and built it all under a ton of rock because they thought it was funny. I find it extremely hard to believe that Israel, who has the most to lose from Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon, isn't aware of other sites AND doesn't know where the enriched uranium is and remaining U6 hexafluoride. Within days they were able to pinpoint Khamenei's bunker and decapitate the entire Iranian command leadership in a week.

Some considerations: Even if the strike didn't 100% destroy the facility, tons of military assets meant to protect the site are gone. They are not easily replaced. Second, it required them to evacuate the sites, which I am sure are all being tracking and noted by Mossad now that they have almost full air control of the western and central Iran. Even if they have other sites, taking out 2 means thats 2 less that Iran can use.

There is also the psychological effect too. Nuclear engineers are watching their leadership and scientists along with their families get taken out with precision strikes. Its going to give them pause if they are ordered to show up to work at another facility knowing their apartments may be next and that Trump is not fucking around. Israel striking targets at all hours of the day and night now will also prevent them from rebuilding a nuclear device because the industrial equipment is destroyed and supply chain is fucked. Its going to be easy for replacement trucks carrying things to be targeted and destroyed from the air now.

This faggot then decides to praise JCPOA. Let me tell you a secret, Iran was still building secret sites and not declaring them even after JCPOA. They are, the Turquzabad Warehouse, the Abadeh Facility, and Marivan to our knowledge. Uranium particles were found at these sites and Iran scuttled the Abadeh facility after Israel revealed it. The deal meant nothing to the Iranians and it was not stopping them, it just gave everyone a false sense of security so they could circlejerk Obama because Orange Man bad.

If Trump just hit the 3 sites on their own, I would agree with this 'expert' but Israel has straight up declared war on Iran and gets closer to 100% air superiority every day. No bomb is getting built without attracting attention from Israel and their F-35s and special ops on the ground.

End of my drunken rant.

Edit: Iran has been proven to lie about everything like a tranny grifter, no one should be taking anything they say at face value.

 

[Froggy Fresh Sextape]

Has there been any evidence of the Iranian Air Force even attempting to respond? The sole evidence of their existance in this conflict was an F4 Phantom flying CAP in Mashhad on Day 1 when Iran thought it was too far for Israeli jets to hit.

No, there was no point in scrambling fighters. Israeli F35s would kill them the moment they got into the air.

 

[Burnt Fish]

So in this case if hypothetically New York City was evaporated in nuclear hellfire killing millions of liberals and their wall street masters you would say it is near impossible that explosion could be caused in any way by Iran?

I wouldn't need to because the dumb fucks would claim ownership of it within minutes if they did it, hell possibly even if they didn't do it. just to sign their own death warrant as we then promptly erased them from the map.

 

[Fcret]

How does Trump know that the strikes were effective? If he has evidence of it there is no reason to keep it secretive. Iran has no reason to deny his claim. If any of their enriched uranium is in tact they now have a tactical advantage even if their ability to make more is diminished.

If a nuclear bomb explodes in new york city tomorrow we wouldn't be able to blame Iran because Trump just said their nuclear program is in shambles.

You're operating under the assumption that Iran's goal is to actually use a nuke in the near term. That's not correct. Iran's goal is to hold the threat of nuclear bombing over its various enemies in the region to extract concessions.

It only benefits them to continue acting as if they're on track to get nuclear weapons even if they've been shitcanned back to 1980.

So in this case if hypothetically New York City was evaporated in nuclear hellfire killing millions of liberals and their wall street masters you would say it is near impossible that explosion could be caused in any way by Iran?

It'd be impossible because Iran has no way to deliver a nuclear warhead to New York.

 

[draggs]

Let's adjust the colors

Let's draw cock n balls on the mountain with ms paint instead

Spoiler

 

[Combustion Engine]

if hypothetically New York City was evaporated in nuclear hellfire

Every major city has radiation detectors all over the place. DC alone has dozens of thousands strategically set up against such possibility. Smuggling enough material to build a nuke or dirty bomb in the US would be difficult enough, somehow evading all the systems set up in place to avoid that remote chance, getting that anywhere would be even worse.

 

[Myrtle the Turtle]

No, there was no point in scrambling fighters. Israeli F35s would kill them the moment they got into the air.

IIRC, Some IAF pilot said they saw some fighters taking off in a strategic retreat on day 1 of the attacks headed for central Iran. By now I assume they are all destroyed, unable to be used due to supply lines and airfields being bombed, or flown further east.

 

[Burnt Fish]

Let's draw cock n balls on the mountain with ms paint instead

Spoiler

View attachment 7544099

I knew it, trump lied, those shafts didn't collapse!

 

[Catch The Rainbow]

The fanfiction some of you guys write to make up these hypothetical scenarios is something to behold.

The best explanation that I've heard that explains this:

Djinn brain is behind Arab and Iranian behavior. It's like the story of the free figs in the souk. They made up an idiotic narrative for propaganda and are always perplexed: "we thought our latest outrage would make them run back to Poland, yet they got angry and punished us!"

They made up the narrative of the Israelis being a bunch of cowards from Poland who just need a bit of pressure to run away in order to bolster their own morale, and then forgot they'd made it up in the first place.

In reality, we don't have a Poland to go back to. Also, there's brojection. Arabs, whether due to cowardice or desert nomad archetypes, always run when faced with cruel defeat, never die in place. Deir Yassin: 100 dead caused the flight of 100s of K's.

In Mosul in 2014, a few hundred ISIS technicals and atrocity videos caused two Iraqi Shia divisions armed with Abrams tanks, Blackhawks, artillery to flee, leaving hundreds of thousands of Shia civilians and their unfortunate comrades to die. So they assume Jews are the same.

 

[Dawdler]

Could I be ascribing way to much planning and foresight to the Pentagon over this? Sure, but it genuinely wouldn't surprise me for this strike in particular they spent an incredible amount of time and money to get correct. The B-2s are ACTUAL 'wunderwaffe'; they only bring them out when they really know they need them, as every single time they leave the hangars it gives Russia and China more opportunities to learn about them. For them to commit 7 of them for this one attack tells me they had an unbelievable amount of confidence in this particular attack, and they knew exactly how many munitions to use, and exactly where to put them.

It also tells others to stand off which may matter most to the Chinese as they've been sweeping skies with their radars

 

[autistic dog]

You're operating under the assumption that Iran's goal is to actually use a nuke in the near term. That's not correct. Iran's goal is to hold the threat of nuclear bombing over its various enemies in the region to extract concessions.

It only benefits them to continue acting as if they're on track to get nuclear weapons even if they've been shitcanned back to 1980.

If that's the case it doesn't even matter if they have or ever had nukes. It is all just posturing and empty threat. If anything that means the strikes give them more credibility. The USA is forced to admit they were so afraid a supposedly tiny pathetic enemy that they pulled out their biggest most secret guns to stop them. Iran is now by their admission legitimately capable of being a top level threat to the united states. Without regime change it is only a matter of time before they are a threat again.

Guess we gotta put boots on the ground after all lest we be back in the same spot 45 years from now.

 

[Ghostse]

Russia/China and to a lesser extent pakistan not really helping them like one would expect.

I'm going to say this again for the tards in the back:
Iran and Pakistan are not friends, not even close. Pakistan is majority Sunni. Iran is expansionist Shia. They put that asside sometimes when there is mutual gain, but Pakistan ain't stepping up for Iran. They are more likely to join the side shitting on Iran and hope to settle their border disputes.

China is not going to bat for Iran. Iran is a china ally but that doesn't go the other way. Russia might have helped had they not been bled white over three years by a country 1/5th size they still haven't been able to conquer.

 

[Major Domo]

Djinn brain is behind Arab and Iranian behavior.

I’m going to start using that phrase from now on when I see retarded takes.

If anything that means the strikes give them more credibility. The USA is forced to admit they were so afraid a supposedly tiny pathetic enemy that they pulled out their biggest most secret guns to stop them. Iran is now by their admission legitimately capable of being a top level threat to the united states. Without regime change it is only a matter of time before they are a threat again.

Djinn brain.

 

[gay porn is the best porn]

Russia might have helped had they not been bled white over three years by a country 1/5th size they still haven't been able to conquer.

No matter what you'll always find a way to sperg about Russia