Sorry to Fatpacks it up here, but I don't see the Republicans winning the next election. Trump has had the tact of a wrecking ball, which is to be expected, but lately it's been working against the GOP. Foreign-policy wise, it's been pretty mediocre to bad. I don't think he should stay as the leader of the party at all, but he likely will.
I know this is UK-based precedent, and I sound like a Leftist in the point I'm going to make, but all a Republican needs to do to win the 2028 election is to go even harder on immigration, trying to reduce legal numbers and making it even harder to be a citizen legally. I'm not sure if the level of disdain for the working class is same to people in this thread as it is to Brits in the Brit thread, but they make up a majority of the population and there's just some things they could not give less a shit about, and those things are foreign policy and fiscal policy. It's why Massie bloviating about the deficit when the average person is more impacted by immigrants because they have to
look at them makes trying to appeal to the working class with fiscal policy that isn't just gibs is a non-starter IMO.
People also hold to stereotypes about the associated parties (Democrats/Labour = party for the poor and working class / Republicans/Conservatives = party for the rich and white) that I think recent years have since demonstrated are largely false, and by and large people are rarely informed on shit which is why those stereotypes persist for so long. Democrats pay lip service to the working class, but overtly favour non-whites and X-minority groups (gays, trannies, etcetera), whilst Republicans are mostly the same as they always was but the new populist injection includes
everybody at least? The problem with big-tent parties is that you mostly keep all the good and bad parts of your political wing, so I know comparing to the UK isn't 1:1 but the road to a Republican win appears similar to a right-wing win in the UK:
1. Go even harder on immigration. (You need to start putting out there the hypothetical positives so people will adopt harsher rhetoric. Fewer people = less workers but more jobs = higher wages would be a decent place to start).
2. Emphasise the
jobs part of your corporate fellating (Which Trump already does).
3. Emphasise individual freedoms (not voting for KOSA would be a good start whilst they still have a majority).
4. Fiscal policy that negatively effects
gibs shouldn't ever leave your lips (even if they're not a beneficiary of any gibs, taking something away hypothetically is always perceived as a negative).
When will China just Balkanize already
Unironically, if Trump kept the exorbitant tariffs on China and they kept their retaliatory ones, Chinese industry grinding to a halt as fuel and energy became ridiculously expensive and thus causing some sort of economic collapse would've done them in.
Ever since Trump applied the initial tariffs, Chinese productivity has been contracting month after month.
China PMI Signals Continued Decline in Manufacturing
China’s manufacturing activity declined for the third straight month in June as trade frictions with the U.S. continued to weigh on the world’s second-largest economy.
The official manufacturing purchasing managers index for June–the first full month after the China-U.S. trade truce was reached in London–came in at 49.7, edging up from May’s 49.5 and matching the 49.7 tipped by a Wall Street Journal poll of economists, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday.
A reading above 50 suggests an expansion in manufacturing while a reading below that suggests a contraction.
Monday’s print followed a run data suggesting the Chinese economy had lost some momentum in May amid the remaining U.S. tariffs slapped on Chinese goods despite the trade detente.
Still, economists say Chinese policymakers seem satisfied with the economy’s performance so far this year.
Chinese Premier Li Qiang last week said that economic indicators continued to improve in the second quarter despite external challenges. Also, China’s central bank has also adopted a less dovish policy tone, according to Goldman Sachs’ economists in a recent report.
“We think the upcoming July Politburo meeting is unlikely to announce major stimulus and additional easing measures should be targeted (e.g., focusing on labor and property markets) rather than broad-based,” the Goldman economists said.
If fuel prices had remained high the knock-on effects might've been catastrophic and I wish I could peek into that timeline where a deal was never negotiated.
