Disaster Spelunking with Children: a Thai recipe for disaster

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/07/asia/thai-cave-spirits-intl/index.html
https://archive.fo/57bES



tl;dr: a bunch of preteen children go diving in a cave in Thailand and are stuck. From what I've been told, they need to learn how to scuba dive and independently remove themselves from the network.

So we're doing this PRICE IS RIGHT style. Bet on how many children you think will survive! The adult is not counted, no one cares about him.

Latest: Rescue mission is underway.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...b0cb7e6f6c2fd7#block-5b419526e4b0cb7e6f6c2fd7
http://archive.is/hSeqL

  • Thai authorities have confirmed that a rescue operation is under way.
  • At 10am local time they sent 18 divers into the cave to bring out the boys – including 13 international divers and five Thai navy Seals. The former governor in charge of the rescue operation called the international divers “all-stars” and the Thai divers “five of our best”.
  • Water levels have dropped significantly since Saturday, and officials say that they are now at “peak readiness”.
  • Officials would not confirm if the boys would have to dive out of the caves, but said that water levels had dropped enough that much of the cave network was walkable.
  • It might take up to two days for all the boys and their coach to come out. The boys will be brought out one by one.
  • Officials said that they might stop and start the operation “depending on weather”.
  • The first rescued boys could come at 9pm local time on Sunday.
  • The children are said to be in high spirits and “ready to go”. The families have been informed about the plan and have also agreed.
  • Earlier today all media and non-rescue personnel were cleared from the cave site area.
  • The coordinator of the rescue efforts said rescuers were still in a “war with water and time” as monsoon rainclouds loomed over the north of the country early on Sunday.
  • The 12 boys and their football coach have been trapped inside the cave for 15 days now, after they ventured into the caves on 23 June and got trapped by rising waters.
  • They were discovered by British divers on Monday night after a nine-day round-the-clock search involving teams from all over the world.

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Some notes:
- an thai ex-navy seal died putting up breathing stations underwater (or something)
- it's not just water they have to scuba through, it's fast and hard currents with very little vision as the water is murky as a mo-fo
- kids have already been down there for several days, at least 3 are getting so fatigued they don't think they'll make a scuba trip
- rough estimates say the kids will have to be underwater (with scuba gear) anywhere from 30-90 min. Could be longer with more skittish kids.
- from entrance to where the boys are is roughly 3 miles... there are technically 3 flooded areas but only one is completely fucked. so even if they get through the fucked one, they still have two more flooded tunnels to deal with and 3 miles of walking
They were saying they might have to stay there until monsoon season is done, which is next November.
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This is the path they want them to take, but apparently there's some side/dead-end tunnels the boys might accidentally go into while underwater.

-Also read that they aren't telling the kid the ex navy guy died because they don't want the kids freaking out...which is probably smart.
I've seen it in four news sources so I'm counting it as good info....

HALF of the boys can't swim.....plus "To reach them, expert divers must carefully traverse jagged passageways, occasionally narrowing to the width of a person, forcing divers to remove their breathing tanks from their backs and enter like a pencil, taking extra care not to snag their wetsuit. The tunnels are pitch black. The water is muddy and cold. The whole journey can take up to six hours."

Rescue mission is a go

Article
 
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They were saying they might have to stay there until monsoon season is done, which is next November.
I think that was the old plan, now with rains coming in; they've done some math and think the cave will be completely flooded before then.

How the hell did they get there in the first place? I didn't see it in the article.
I doubt any will make it.
They were on some field trip after a soccer game. Apparently they went exploring in areas that already had large puddles and flooding but didn't give a fuck. Then water levels rose so they went higher looking for a way out. Couldn't find one. Got trapped.

Think school and/or parents reported them missing when none of the kids came home. Eventually someone found them. Now we are where we are.
 
Well those kids are definitely fucked
Given how fucking sketchy the whole "come on kids! follow me into this cave without telling your parents! OH NO we're trapped :evil:" thing is....yeah im guessing they have all been fucked multiple times by coach of the year by now. Hell he probably sabotaged the SEAL's airline in order to ensure only he walks out alive and no evidence of his boy-ass-spelunking makes it out
 
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This is the path they want them to take, but apparently there's some side/dead-end tunnels the boys might accidentally go into while underwater.

-Also read that they aren't telling the kid the ex navy guy died because they don't want the kids freaking out...which is probably smart.

Edit:
I've seen it in four news sources so I'm counting it as good info....

HALF of the boys can't swim.....plus "To reach them, expert divers must carefully traverse jagged passageways, occasionally narrowing to the width of a person, forcing divers to remove their breathing tanks from their backs and enter like a pencil, taking extra care not to snag their wetsuit. The tunnels are pitch black. The water is muddy and cold. The whole journey can take up to six hours."
 
Read an article yesterday that claimed it takes trained divers over 5 hours to reach the ledge they are on. That's insane. I don't think more than half the kids will survive a water extraction given that inevitably some of them will panic in the tight passages. Would it be possible to sedate them some and literally tie them to a strong professional diver?

I agree with @Null about Musk's attention seeking ass but his presence here can only help. He is highly organized and any logistical expertise he brings will help. I don't think the Thai government knows its ass from its elbow frankly.
 
My money's on 7. Some will definitely die, but several more are likely to make it just based on numbers alone. Children are weak, stupid and easily panicked, but their small bodies will likely get them through those tight cave passages easier and at that age you're basically made out of rubber.

The adult in that situation is a grade A moron. After they're done dragging him out they should truss him up like a hog and throw him into the sea.

Musk's incessant showboating is pretty much to be expected. If he gets them out then great I guess, though some part of me is rooting for whatever's he's building to accidentally collapse a key escape route and doom them all just out of spite.
 
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