It's not exactly a scorching hot take, but I'd count on a minimum of 2 begathons. One at Thanksgiving, one at Christmastime (maybe even on Christmas Eve/Day, for extra pity). They worked a trick for him last year, and he seems to be counting on it again. The real question is which whales are going to actually give their money up. Swagginz seems, frankly, really tired of Phil's shit (to the extent that he will openly mock Phil in chat), but that doesn't mean he won't drop a big tip or something. Austmink has been present but not cheering much, if at all, in the past couple of months. Tut's doing his wildcard shit.
Infinite, blaine007, goldencolts, grazydream, and hemanoma can pretty much be counted on to give big. That Flybeast guy that shows up every once in a while with a big tip will undoubtedly show up too.
Should be interesting to see how it goes.
Edit: Seems there's some confusion about Phil's taxes:
View attachment 571582
The 4k-8k is federal taxes, which have previously been estimated at ~16k per year. This would square with Phil having put his Tut-inflated money into the previous quarterly payments he didn't make, and perhaps having made the 3rd one (Sept 15th, I think?).
And let's be clear--the $10k from December was for the
entire month, not just the begathon fundraiser. The fundraiser pulled in like $3k.