I mostly agree but personally I'd move Colorado and Nevada up a tier, New Mexico and Maine down one and Rhode Island just gets a WTF from me. Like even
I'm not that

bro.
Okay no seriously Rhode Island?! I'll give you points for surprising me because
that is out of left field.
Like Rhode Island is Massachusetts but small.
Could you please elaborate on what makes you think RI could flip?
Okay, here's my rationale for Rhode Island. To be honest, I never even considered it at first until I came across
this article. In the section titled 'Safe Democratic electoral votes', the second paragraph says:
One state to watch in the long term, though, may be Rhode Island. The Ocean State has been much more Democratic compared to the nation in the lion’s share of elections since the New Deal political realignment, which in Rhode Island really started with the 1928 Democratic nomination of Al Smith. But Hillary Clinton’s showing in Rhode Island was one of the weaker ones for a Democrat there in recent history. The Democratic presidential margin there fell from 27.5 points in 2012 to 15.5 in 2016. That doesn’t mean much, if anything, in the short term, although if Rhode Island ever becomes more of a swing state, we may look back at 2016 as a very early sign.
He still thinks that Rhode Island is safe blue, but then again, this article was written at the end of February. The Democrats have continued to look completely unhinged since then and have even stepped it up. But it got me thinking.
- Trump pulled 39% of the vote there in 2016, compared with Oregon with 39% and New Mexico with 40%. This very conversation started with talking about how Oregon may be in play and New Mexico is most definitely in play. If those states are in play, why not Rhode Island?
- Most of the states that went blue were carried due to running up massive totals in their very large, very blue cities. But look at
Rhode Island in the last election. It's more of a homogeneous light blue. And there are no major metropolitan areas in Rhode Island the size of Boston or New York or Chicago where you get the super blue shades. Generally speaking, places that lean say, 55%/45% Dem, are less polarized. In those areas you expect to see 99% of the people leaning center left
or center right, obviously with slight more leaning left than right. These places are not 55% super left balanced out by 45% super right. I said all of that to say this: these are the kind of moderates who would tend to be turned off by wildly extremist platforms, like, say that of the 2020 Dems. So if there is a shift away from Democrats, it won't be just a few, it will be a massive, simultaneous shift. Just like how the white working class vote shifted in unison in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016.
- Less than half a million votes were cast in the state last time. In terms of election turnout, that's tiny, so it's prone to small sample size abnormalities. For example, Rhode Island is a pretty white state. It wouldn't take very many of them to say 'No way, I'm not paying reparations' to swing the state. Also, Rhode Island is the most Catholic state in the union. The Dems' abortion extremism is one thing that could compel a small, but significant enough amount of people to withhold their votes.
- New England, parts of it anyway, seems to be starting to crack for the Democrats, albeit not as suddenly as the Rust Belt did for them in 2016. ME-2 was the first electoral vote for the GOP in New England since 2000. Trump almost carried New Hampshire in 2016 and it's in play for 2020. He's got a decent chance of picking up the whole state of Maine next time. Massachusetts will not turn red because of Boston. And Vermont is, well, Vermont. But Rhode Island is not afflicted with being Vermont nor does it have a mega city filled with super liberal colleges pumping out brainwashed idiots like AOC. Hell, Providence may vote GOP just distance themselves from Boston.
So yeah, that's why I think it's possible to flip Rhode Island in 2020.