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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46188790

Agreement is finally in Number 10's grasp.

The text that's taken months of officials' blood, sweat and tears has been agreed, at least at a technical level.

Now a paper's being drafted to present to the Cabinet tomorrow ready for the government's hoped-for next step - political approval from Theresa May's team, even though many of them have deep reservations.

Remember in the last 24 hours some of them have been warning privately that what's on the table is just not acceptable, and will never get through Parliament. Some even believe the prime minister ought to walk away.

But the government machine is now cranking into action. With a text ready, their long-planned rollout can begin.
The BBC's chief political correspondent Vicki Young said some ministers had "deep concerns" about the shape of the likely agreement, which critics say could leave the UK trapped in a customs agreement with the EU.

She said they would have to decide whether they could support it, and if not, whether to resign from cabinet.

Leading Brexiteers have already condemned the draft agreement, Boris Johnson saying it would see the UK remain in the customs union and "large parts" of the single market.

He told the BBC it was "utterly unacceptable to anyone who believes in democracy". "Am I going to vote against it. The answer is yes," he added.

And Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said "given the shambolic nature of the negotiations, this is unlikely to be the good deal for the country".

'Failure to deliver'
Both the UK and EU want to schedule a special summit of European leaders at the end of November to sign off the reportedly 500 page withdrawal deal and the much shorter outline declaration of their future relationship.

Brussels has insisted it would only agree to put the wheels in motion for the summit if agreement can be reached on the issue of the Irish border.

Ambassadors from the remaining 27 EU states will meet in Brussels on Wednesday.

If a deal is agreed with the EU, Mrs May then needs to persuade her party - and the rest of Parliament - to support it in a key Commons vote.

Conservative Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg said if details of the text reported by Irish broadcaster RTE were true, the UK would become a "vassal state" with Northern Ireland "being ruled from Dublin".

Such an agreement "failed to deliver on Brexit" and the cabinet should reject it, he told the BBC.

"I think what we know of this deal is deeply unsatisfactory," he said. "There seems to be growing opposition to these very poor proposals."

Meanwhile, following pressure from all sides of the Commons, ministers have agreed to provide MPs with a legal assessment of the implications for the UK of the Irish backstop and other controversial aspects of any deal.

Cabinet Office minister David Lidington said Attorney General Geoffrey Cox would make a statement to MPs and take questions ahead of the final vote on any Brexit deal.

MPs, he said, would get to see "a full reasoned position statement laying out the government's both political and also legal position on the proposed withdrawal agreement".

The Democratic Unionists' Westminster leader Nigel Dodds said he was pleased Parliament had "asserted its will" as it was imperative that all parties to the deal were clear in what way and for how long it would "legally bind" the UK.

Chequers minus it is. Whatever happened to no deal being better than a bad deal.

We should have been far more aggressive in negotiations with Brussels. They all but stated immediately after the referendum that they were going to bumrape us for having the temerity to leave, so we should have told them that unless and until they got serious, we'd basically go full on tax haven mode and steal all their big companies - and funnel money and support to Eurosceptics in Italy, Spain, Greece, Poland, and Hungary.
 
Some of the more left leaning media are starting to say the stormy weather is going to reduce labour's vote (somehow). Because of course those who have spent the last few years screeching the Tories are literally Hitler are going to see a bit of rain and decide it's too much effort to go and try to vote them out.
 
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Some of the more left leaning media are starting to say the stormy weather is going to reduce labour's vote (somehow). Because of course those who have spent the last few years screeching the Tories are literally Hitler are going to see a bit of rain and decide it's too much effort to go and try to vote them out.

I'd have thought it the other way round and would damage the Tory vote because all the oldiewonks won't want to get wet or drive in the rain and wind myself.
 
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Some of the more left leaning media are starting to say the stormy weather is going to reduce labour's vote (somehow). Because of course those who have spent the last few years screeching the Tories are literally Hitler are going to see a bit of rain and decide it's too much effort to go and try to vote them out.

I saw a pollster, I can't remember who, talking about this the other day. There haven't really been enough winter elections for it to be said how much the weather really affects voting, but they were confident that rain wouldn't be an issue. Ice and snow was suggested to be more likely to keep people from voting, but overall there just isn't enough data to be able to say one way or the other whether strong winds will do the same.
 
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I'd have thought it the other way round and would damage the Tory vote because all the oldiewonks won't want to get wet or drive in the rain and wind myself.

Oldies will ALWAYS vote.

As for the rain damaging the Labour vote, snowflakes will whine it's horrible and the crusty Trots will dissolve on the way to the Polling Station.
 
Or instead convince him to attend one of those and get hit by a milkshake by one of these lunatics. If these geniuses think that doing that will make people support them, they horribly misunderstand the average person. Will also be funny to see Corbyn have to either distance himself or flat out oppose it, and can be used as more ammo against him (not that it will really matter with two days to go).

Has everyone seen the Ashford leaks? Fuck does it not look good for Labour.



Which then leads to him floundering in a series of interviews while ducking others.

And now, with two days to go, the supporters want the Shadow health secretary sacked for not believing in the cause.


There was no Jon Ashworth

ELbP8HPXkAAbpFa
 
I'd have thought it the other way round and would damage the Tory vote because all the oldiewonks won't want to get wet or drive in the rain and wind myself.

In my experience the ones that screech on about Labour being the only solution to everything are the ones that next day end up admitting they couldn't be arsed to go to the polling station. Mind last election was as I recall during a term break also.

I worked polls last election before moving abroad in a strong majority Tory seat but with a lot of young adults who tend to be pro-Labour. Obvs don't know who voted what, but I can say that even on a fairly clear day with little rain. The under-25s were not all that common that day.

The EU referendum vote itself was right bang in the middle of Summer but I very much recall that the day itself was marked by crazy humidity spikes followed by thunderstorms in the South East. Quite a few people who would class themselves remainers decided not to swing by their local polling station to vote.
 
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I saw a pollster, I can't remember who, talking about this the other day. There haven't really been enough winter elections for it to be said how much the weather really affects voting, but they were confident that rain wouldn't be an issue. Ice and snow was suggested to be more likely to keep people from voting, but overall there just isn't enough data to be able to say one way or the other whether strong winds will do the same.

There's also not going to be any snow aside from in the High Peaks where they're used to it, and the rain due on Thursday is going to sweep through the UK for most of the day, as in unlike today where it's hung around for enormous parts it's just going to sod off after a couple of hours leaving brighter weather in its wake.
 
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I saw an ad from Corbyn recently where he tries to explain his 30 page suicide note titled "Labour manifesto" in 60 seconds. All of it seemed so wonderful and brilliant ideas. Which is exactly why I'm not voting for Labour, as they would enact none of it successfully.
Labour really messed up by overpromising to such a ludicrous degree, I don’t know anyone who honestly thinks Corbyn can achieve all of his manifesto promises, even staunch magic grandad fans say things like ‘Well even if they only get some of it done it’ll be great!’.
 
Labour really messed up by overpromising to such a ludicrous degree, I don’t know anyone who honestly thinks Corbyn can achieve all of his manifesto promises, even staunch magic grandad fans say things like ‘Well even if they only get some of it done it’ll be great!’.

Unlikely. If any of it fails they'll decide, as socialist governments tend to, that traitors and counter-revolutionaries and wreckers are responsible, and there will be a purge. You know that rapist-faced degenerate John McDonnell is just itching to set up gulags.
 
Unlikely. If any of it fails they'll decide, as socialist governments tend to, that traitors and counter-revolutionaries and wreckers are responsible, and there will be a purge.

As opposed to admitting it was all their fault and the only way forwards is through a careful period of humble introspection and internal investigation, like every good conservative government always does in the same situation.
 
The bad news is the polls tonight suggesting that Tories have dropped 20% and Labour have completely gained that lost 20% - which still gives them a majority of about 26 potentially but not a breakaway winner for Conservatives at this point.

So will come down to how people react to that news - if at all. I know there's still a bit of a leaver split between people who are willing to vote Conservative, and others who don't even want Boris' deal and will only vote TBP or spoil ballot.
 
The bad news is the polls tonight suggesting that Tories have dropped 20% and Labour have completely gained that lost 20% - which still gives them a majority of about 26 potentially but not a breakaway winner for Conservatives at this point.

So will come down to how people react to that news - if at all. I know there's still a bit of a leaver split between people who are willing to vote Conservative, and others who don't even want Boris' deal and will only vote TBP or spoil ballot.

The problem is YouGov's MRP has a fucking horrendous margin of error. The data's predicting one of three scenarios.

A Hung Parliament (again!)

A Modest Boris Majority (of between 30-40 seats, the norm for most Uk Governments)

Boris Majority of 60-100 seats.

Survation is due to publish their final poll today, apparently. They were the accurate ones during 2017 and were the only ones predicting the hung parliament mess we got last time. This time they've kept a consistent double digit lead for the Tories throughout. This may have dipped back down again, but is unlikely to have fallen too far.
 
Electoral Calculus is reckoning a Tory majority of 46 seats. Probability 82% they reckon.

I'm also thinking we need to have a separate election megathread when the polls close so we can all shitpost up a storm while listening to Dimbers or Brillo or whoever reading the entrails.

Dimbers retired, It'll be Huw Edwards increasingly turning red as the UK increasingly doesn't.

EDIT: Also means effective working majority of 53 if Sinn Fein keep their 7 seats from last go around.
 
So who is going to be watching the results come in live? All night for those in the UK. And how / where will you be watching it? I'm trying to figure out who will have the best coverage.
 
So who is going to be watching the results come in live? All night for those in the UK. And how / where will you be watching it? I'm trying to figure out who will have the best coverage.

I'll likely keep an eye on it online from 10 until bed, but I won't know until I see what Piers Morgan is bloviating about.
 
I was wondering why the libdems are being such a non contender, I think I know now

 
So who is going to be watching the results come in live? All night for those in the UK. And how / where will you be watching it? I'm trying to figure out who will have the best coverage.

Watching from the US here - BBC World News is carrying the Election Program from 4:45pm ET tomorrow. Sky News have a rolling stream service on Youtube and apparently are testing out a stream via Twitch this year (wonder if they will close chat or not lol)

ITV have been toying with online streams too, episodes of their political weekday show - Peston, have been premiering via Twitter with no geo-block so might do same for election coverage?

I'm prob gonna have to dip in and out because Gaming Awards is tomorrow and there are strong hints of announcements making it worth a watch, but I imagine I will try to watch as much coverage as possible.
 
I was wondering why the libdems are being such a non contender, I think I know now


Her seat is currently believed to be a knife-edge against the SNP right now.

We'll be getting a lot of Portillo moments tomorrow and into Friday.

Dominic Raab may also lose his seat, which'd be a shame.

However, Anna Sourby, Dominic Grieve, Sam Gimayah, Chukka Ummuna and the other morons from the "Change UK" mess as well as Remainiac scum who decided they knew better than the voters are all currently on course to not only lose their seats, but likely their deposits as well (Polling in Sourby's seat of Broxtowe was on 0%).
 
Electoral Calculus is reckoning a Tory majority of 46 seats. Probability 82% they reckon.

I'm also thinking we need to have a separate election megathread when the polls close so we can all shitpost up a storm while listening to Dimbers or Brillo or whoever reading the entrails.

Could we just rename this one, give how obsolete the title is right now? It's been the de facto UK Election 2019 thread since before said election was announced.

And just for fun, a UK political video I greatly enjoyed:
Tories win it in a squeaker after the SNP fumbles in sudden death. Jon interprets this as "Tories win a majority, SNP gains and uses the leverage to push for a second independence referendum, which fails by the tiniest of margins."
 
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