Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

[AmpleApricots]

The WHO lied about Ebola being in remission back in 2013 because they lost two months of data. They have zero credibility.

I can't imagine Pete Townshend would lie about such things

 

[Absolute Brainlet]

Man, this virus business seems pretty fucked, what with dudes puking up blood and shit.

My question tho is when are we gonna get plague monsters running around? I always wanted to test out how well I would do in a Resident Evil style situation.

You're already kind of in it, with the whole city quarantine shit going on.

 

[Rei is shit]

I want a virus to wipe out humanity as much as everyone else does but it's not gonna happen, not this time.
People are just overreacting with this "it's secretly killing everyone and China is hiding it!" nonsense.
Sure they COULD be but I bet 10,000 Yuan it's a nothingburger.

The social, political and even economic impact of this is what will be most interesting. I wonder how many dead/infected it will take until we get mass hysteria kino.

 

[JongleJingle]

The social, political and even economic impact of this is what will be most interesting. I wonder how many dead/infected it will take until we get mass hysteria kino.

Give it a few days and many dead China Boi's later and next thing you know, we're gonna have dudes in hazmat suits gunning down anyone who coughs in sight.

How social media will react to this, I can only guess at. We've been in need of a cataclysmic plague for a while.

 

[Lithos]

[The business in Guangzhou's flower market was horrible, and the shopkeeper was furious to vent his potted plants. The Spring Festival was originally the peak season for flower sales, but affected by the Wuhan epidemic, business in flower markets across China was greatly affected, and stall owners suffered heavy losses. Next, hotels, guesthouses, restaurants, transportation, retail and other industries will also stop. China's economy is accelerating]

Those aren't thugs. They're the owners of that stall.

Guangzhou is one of the "big three", and if people aren't traveling there and buying stuff from vendors, there will be a lot of rotten stuff laying about. Oh, and the produce next to the people.

I'm of the opinion that 90% of this is mass hysteria generated by the government's idiotic heel-dragging then overcompensating response. But, people are dying, so...

 

[XYZpdq]

Also I'm curious about this: how do the current rates of death in the the population compare to lung germ related deaths any other random week.

 

[wtfNeedSignUp]

It's incredibly of me. But could the Chinese plague be the last thing to push them over the edge economically?

There's the general economy built on imaginary infrastructure and kept afloat by government fudging the numbers.
Hong Kong rebels against being grouped with China.
The trade war with the USA probably had some lasting damage and uncertinety, especially since Trump will likely win another term to restart it.
And finally the plague is among the Chinese that will likely cause riots and food shortages.

 

[pull over dat ass too fat]

People who think China would shoot itself in the foot by cancelling the largest profit and tourism time of the year and funnel military into Hubei for funsies are naive. This is ridiculously expensive and will hurt longterm tourism. Westerners are under the impression that China needs to prove itself to its people, but mainland Chinese people already adore Xi Jinping.

 

[Tikbalang]

View attachment 1114918
[The business in Guangzhou's flower market was horrible, and the shopkeeper was furious to vent his potted plants. The Spring Festival was originally the peak season for flower sales, but affected by the Wuhan epidemic, business in flower markets across China was greatly affected, and stall owners suffered heavy losses. Next, hotels, guesthouses, restaurants, transportation, retail and other industries will also stop. China's economy is accelerating]

Those aren't thugs. They're the owners of that stall.

Guangzhou is one of the "big three", and if people aren't traveling there and buying stuff from vendors, there will be a lot of rotten stuff laying about. Oh, and the produce next to the people.

I'm of the opinion that 90% of this is mass hysteria generated by the government's idiotic heel-dragging then overcompensating response. But, people are dying, so...

Can you blame them for their loss?

 

[Slap47]

It's incredibly of me. But could the Chinese plague be the last thing to push them over the edge economically?

There's the general economy built on imaginary infrastructure and kept afloat by government fudging the numbers.
Hong Kong rebels against being grouped with China.
The trade war with the USA probably had some lasting damage and uncertinety, especially since Trump will likely win another term to restart it.
And finally the plague is among the Chinese that will likely cause riots and food shortages.

China is one magic homeless man away from a peasants rebellion and invading barbarians.

 

[Lithos]

Got off a call with some Canadians who own a company in Wuxi (big city outside Shanghai). They're back in Canada. They say the greatest thing that's going to fuck everybody over in China is their "Face". And snot rockets.

The Japanese and Thai have been offering large scale donations of masks. The government outright refused to take them. It's already been mentioned that there were people washing them and selling them back at a higher price in China. I have worked with a lot of great Chinese people, but damn, what a fucking culture.

 

[Disheveled Human]

The business in Guangzhou's flower market was horrible, and the shopkeeper was furious to vent his potted plants. The Spring Festival was originally the peak season for flower sales, but affected by the Wuhan epidemic, business in flower markets across China was greatly affected, and stall owners suffered heavy losses. Next, hotels, guesthouses, restaurants, transportation, retail and other industries will also stop. China's economy is accelerating]

Those aren't thugs. They're the owners of that stall.

Guangzhou is one of the "big three", and if people aren't traveling there and buying stuff from vendors, there will be a lot of rotten stuff laying about. Oh, and the produce next to the people.

I'm of the opinion that 90% of this is mass hysteria generated by the government's idiotic heel-dragging then overcompensating response. But, people are dying, so...

Something tells me the flower market will be booming in 2 weeks to a month, unfortunately it won't be for The Spring Festival.

 

[PS1gamenwatch]

I know it's a day late, but there is concern of how this will affect the upcoming olympics:

Coronavirus spotlights Japan contagion risks as Olympics loom

An outbreak of a new virus in China has raised fears of a global pandemic, forcing Japan to confront the possibility of deadly contagion and disruption as it prepares to host the 2020 Summer Olympics.

www.reuters.com

Coronavirus spotlights Japan contagion risks as Olympics loom

Rocky Swift
4 MIN READ

TOKYO (Reuters) - An outbreak of a new virus in China has raised fears of a global pandemic, forcing Japan to confront the possibility of deadly contagion and disruption as it prepares to host the 2020 Summer Olympics.


FILE PHOTO: Giant Olympic Rings are installed at the waterfront area, with the Rainbow Bridge in the background, ahead of an official inauguration ceremony, six months before the opening of the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympic Games, at Odaiba Marine Park in Tokyo, Japan January 17, 2020. REUTERS/Issei Kato
The disease that has killed 17 people and infected almost 600 has already affected Olympics-related events in China, with the cancellation of boxing matches set for the city of Wuhan, seen as the epicenter of the outbreak, and women’s soccer qualifiers shifted to Nanjing..
Although Japan has seen just one case, the outbreak highlights the risk of contagion given the millions of visitors expected for the Summer Games.
“We have to be very careful about what kind of infectious diseases will appear at the Tokyo Olympics,” Kazuhiro Tateda, president of the Japanese Association for Infectious Diseases, told a briefing on Wednesday.
“At these kinds of mass gatherings, the risks increase that infectious diseases and resistant bacteria can be carried in.”
Organizers of the Summer Games said they were working with authorities.
“Countermeasures against infectious diseases constitute an important part of our plans to host a safe and secure games,” Tokyo 2020 said in a statement.
It would not be the first time that fears of disease have clouded Olympic preparations.
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In 2016, the Zika virus prompted some health experts to call for the postponement or relocation of the games in Brazil. They went ahead as scheduled.
Japan on Thursday raised its infectious disease advisory level for Wuhan, urging citizens to avoid non-urgent trips.
PATCHWORK VACCINATION
Until recently, Japanese health authorities were more concerned about beefing up routine vaccinations before foreign visitors arrive this summer. A patchwork policy toward inoculation over the past few decades has left large portions of the Japanese population unprotected against common diseases.
Outbreaks of rubella, which can cause birth defects, prompted the CDC to warn pregnant women about traveling to Japan in 2018. Ahead of the Olympics, the health ministry has been conducting catch-up vaccinations of middle-aged men who were left out of rubella vaccinations in the 1970s and 1980s.
Japan has no mandatory vaccination for mumps, which in other parts of the world is usually bundled with measles and rubella in MMR shots. Japan is fourth in the world in mumps cases, after China, Nepal and Burkina Faso, according to WHO data.
As for the coronavirus, the dangers of public panic and the resulting economic fallout may be greater than the disease itself, said Ikuo Tsunoda, professor of microbiology at Kindai University.
He compared it to the mad cow disease scare in the early 2000s that prompted Japan to ban beef imports from the United States and other countries despite little evidence of human transmission.
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“This coronavirus, of course it’s somewhat deadly, but uncertain or inaccurate information spreads so quickly,” Tsunoda said.
“Rather than the virus itself, rumors make the public panic, and that causes a mess.”

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[Secret Asshole]

This is the worst stage of an outbreak - the time when sick & dead are starting to mount up yet basic information needed to properly deal has yet to be acquired or confirmed. The signal to noise ratio is probably skewed towards the noise & heavily at that. We're going to continue to see unprecedented actions & words from China & other countries but the fact that China's premier has said what he said is concerning. China is not known for coming clean about much.

We don't know the incubation period. We don't know at what stage of an infection a person can pass it on. Can it be passed by someone infected but NOT showing symptoms? We don't even have the symptoms or progression of symptoms pinned down.

I can almost guarantee there are many infected throughout the west - just not sick yet. Over this next week, we'll see it "officially" spread to 20-35 countries. One of the important things to watch for is spread outside China. Benjamin comes home to Essex & his family of four, eventually breaks with symptoms & several of his family members & possibly neighbours do as well. Only then will we start getting a real handle on how this sucker spreads in western societies.

Vaccine - several companies working on them now but don't expect anything to be available for at least a year. Vax has to be developed, tested, tweaked, tested again on larger numbers, then manufactured in bulk. It's hard to ramp that up quickly enough & skipping clinical trials is a poor crap shoot.

The problem is fucking China. They're giving nobody any fucking information so we don't even know how to prepare. The only way to know unfortunately is an outbreak in a Western nation.

Knew this would be impossible to contain, but just coming to terms with how dire.

People with no symptoms could be spreading deadly coronavirus, study warns

As deadly disease reaches Europe, doctors warn isolation and quarantine is essential to stem infection rates

www.independent.co.uk

I also read that in some cases the virus can disrupt immune system. I'm extremely skeptical of the death report China has given. Considering the large discrepancy in reported symptoms, I also wonder how quickly it's mutating.

Research institutes and universities are fucked. So many Chinese researchers and students came home recently from holidays. My colleague is from Beijing and came back a couple weeks ago and I know a ton of universities in the US just started classes a week or two ago. Avoid libraries and be cautious in public transport, wash your hands and don't touch your face in public. Health officials outside of China trying to downplay so there's no panic, but it's important people take this seriously imo. There are way too many unknowns.

Some infections can cause what's called a 'cytokine storm'. Basically the immune system goes into hyperdrive and basically kills you. We don't know yet if this is happening with this virus. But its common in the flu and happens a lot with pulmonary related diseases.

Haven't made time to look up the "official" stuff, such as is known about incubation, transmission, etc. so appreciate the info. As to people dropping in the streets - hyperbole? It's possible but with the current state of affairs, I'm staying skeptical about a lot of "info" coming out of China; both reassuring or worrisome.

It's pretty clear the western medical establishments are in scramble mode. My area has been operating beyond capacity in terms of hospital beds. It's farcical to listen to politicians/health officials assuring us we have isolation facilities, advanced respiratory support etc. especially when they conveniently neglect to mention that every space in our hospitals is beyond full & storage rooms & offices are being turned into patient care spaces BFORE we even have a whiff of this disease. My city has a major university with a large number of Asians, specifically Chinese in attendance.

Any time now...

There's really nothing known except it has a two week incubation period in which you can pass the virus onto others. I'm sure the CDC is already prepping something.

Also I'm curious about this: how do the current rates of death in the the population compare to lung germ related deaths any other random week.

Since China is lying, we don't know.

 

[DefCon Dumb]

Numbers... especially official numbers. Always assume numbers put out by the WHO or other aggregating organizations are going to be at least 48 hours behind. Xi & his 3 family members die in a village, it's reported up the food chain to the province, then nationally, possibly 'massaged' & only then put out to the world. By the time the politicians & hand wringers get done fretting, some info is really stale.

At this stage it's very difficult to know the extent of... anything related to this outbreak. The truth lies somewhere between the official releases by any nation's organization & the hysterical end of the worlders type stuff. We have enough cases in the west now to do our own sequencing but I'm convinced they'll come up with the same results they were given by China in terms of genome. What will be interesting is... are all genetic sequences remaining more or less identical or are there several strains circulating? I'd be surprised at the latter, especially this early. Perhaps more importantly, is it mutating? That's not necessarily a bad thing. If this baby coronavirus wants to make a home in humans, the most successful strains will be those mild enough to not kill the host while remaining easily transmissible.

It's a given that economic losses will be substantial & not just in China. The travel/tourism industry will take a beating & not just in Asia. Oil was already starting to slide yesterday; not sure how far & airline stock prices will be dropping. China is large enough, diverse enough in its economy & has a large enough population to absorb this. It will be a hard swallow for them but they'll come out fine on the other end.

Still catching up on medical sites & what info they have but so far, this SEEMS to be spreading faster & possibly more easily than did SARS but doesn't, (yet, anyway), have the case fatality rate SARS did. That was about 9% of lad confirmed cases, if memory serves me right.

 

[Kaede Did Nothing Wrong]

I updated my earlier post, but the estimated transmission rate has been lowered to 2.6 from 3.8.

Self-sustaining human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) is the only plausible explanation of the scale of the outbreak in Wuhan. We estimate that, on average, each case infected 2.6 (uncertainty range: 1.5-3.5) other people up to 18th January 2020, based on an analysis combining our past estimates of the size of the outbreak in Wuhan with computational modelling of potential epidemic trajectories. This implies that control measures need to block well over 60% of transmission to be effective in controlling the outbreak. It is likely, based on the experience of SARS and MERS-CoV, that the number of secondary cases caused by a case of 2019-nCoV is highly variable – with many cases causing no secondary infections, and a few causing many. Whether transmission is continuing at the same rate currently depends on the effectiveness of current control measures implemented in China and the extent to which the populations of affected areas have adopted risk-reducing behaviours. In the absence of antiviral drugs or vaccines, control relies upon the prompt detection and isolation of symptomatic cases. It is unclear at the current time whether this outbreak can be contained within China; uncertainties include the severity spectrum of the disease caused by this virus and whether cases with relatively mild symptoms are able to transmit the virus efficiently. Identification and testing of potential cases need to be as extensive as is permitted by healthcare and diagnostic testing capacity – including the identification, testing and isolation of suspected cases with only mild to moderate disease (e.g. influenza-like illness), when logistically feasible.

still bad but not as bad.

if there are folks in wuhan already recovering then maybe it's just a bad bug for already weakened individuals.

 

[Fork Cartel]

I want a virus to wipe out humanity as much as everyone else does but it's not gonna happen, not this time.
People are just overreacting with this "it's secretly killing everyone and China is hiding it!" nonsense.
Sure they COULD be but I bet 10,000 Yuan it's a nothingburger.

The issue is, you think for a second we're being told the truth upfront?

 

[Oddjob OTP]

Thread theme:

 

[JosephStalin]

The problem is fucking China. They're giving nobody any fucking information so we don't even know how to prepare. The only way to know unfortunately is an outbreak in a Western nation.



Some infections can cause what's called a 'cytokine storm'. Basically the immune system goes into hyperdrive and basically kills you. We don't know yet if this is happening with this virus. But its common in the flu and happens a lot with pulmonary related diseases.



There's really nothing known except it has a two week incubation period in which you can pass the virus onto others. I'm sure the CDC is already prepping something.



Since China is lying, we don't know.

Speaking of the CDC, still no answer to my question if Tamiflu will be effective against this virus.

What a fucking mess. Not going to get better any time soon, either.

@DefCon Dumb - just checked oil. $54.20/barrel, per Wall Street Journal web site. Sure is going down.

 

[Ahriman]

A total of 450 medical workers from the Chinese People's Liberation Army arrived in Wuhan on Friday night, the Chinese new year's eve, as a strong reinforcement in the fight against the new coronavirus-related pneumonia. Some 38 people are recovering from coronavirus, Chinese media reported on Saturday. The promising news comes as the death toll from the epidemic has risen to 41, with the number of confirmed coronavirus cases nearing 1,300. READ MORE: https://on.rt.com/a9po