Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

[Dog-O-Tron 5000v5.0]

Y'know, I've been thinking alot about what kind of impact this sudden loss of labor force will have on Amazon, Apple, etc. They might actually have to bring some of that manufacturing back to the US now.

It depends. In the short term, stuff like this

The great thing about china dying is people are turning to India for supplies like ceramic and textile.

will be able to happen.

For stuff like "build entire factory and move manufacturing infrastructure" it would take time, and the first instinct of the globohomo manufacturing concerns would be to wait it out and restart production in China in a few months.

Only after it's apparent that it won't happen and they start to lose $$ from lack of products would they consider moving. Even then, that loss would have to be higher than the lessening of profit on said products due to higher wages in the other countries (plus start up costs of setting up new plants). Like they could take a 50% decrease in sales and corresponding 20% less in total profits, and that might be better than moving production and having a 25% loss in sales but a 30% loss in total profits due to higher wages. And of course, it would be a lot more attractive to just to go 'Nam, India, Mexico, etc before you bring jobs to the US at $20 an hour plus wage taxes and bennies.

The caveat is that if it looks like the plague might go on for a couple years and massively fuck up the infrastructure of said 3rd World shitholes where you can pay wages of $.60 cents an hour, it might suddenly look more attractive to pay out the ass in wages in a first world nation like the US where they can better control and treat the sickness, thus ensuring a reliable supply line.

View attachment 1136094

http://archive.md/XwKFA

This is where you'll know the SHTF in the US--when suddenly interstate borders close and you need travel permits to move about the country. At that point, assume we are now in a new era of life and things may never go back to normal and there could indeed be a total govt/societal collapse. We'd be in late stage Roman Empire where the national borders exist only on paper and there are in fact multiple separate countries, govt authorities, and warlords running shit (no matter how it is presented).

 

[JacksonHeights]

They planned this all along. Not only they have superhuman immune system, their economy is now flourishing.

"Superpower 2020" actually meant "WE will be the designated superpower, starting from 2020"!

the only reason we have strong immune system is because our hygiene (or lack thereof). Strong immune systems are genetically favored in India. That and we eat insane amounts of spicy foods, making our bodies increase the rate of mucous.

 

[Innominandum]

Case Series 07.02

Clinical Characteristics of Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)–Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China

This single-center case series describes the demographics, symptoms, laboratory and imaging findings, treatment, and clinical course of 138 patients hospitalized with 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)–infected pneumonia (NCIP) in Wuhan, China, highlighting presumed human-to-human...

jamanetwork.com

NY Times Article - Case Series Summary

New Report on 138 Coronavirus Cases Reveals Disturbing Details

A highly contagious patient, virus transmission inside a hospital and unexpected turns for the worse have emerged as part of the epidemic in China.

www.nytimes.com

 

[RodgerDodger]

It depends. In the short term, stuff like this

will be able to happen.

For stuff like "build entire factory and move manufacturing infrastructure" it would take time, and the first instinct of the globohomo manufacturing concerns would be to wait it out and restart production in China in a few months.

Only after it's apparent that it won't happen and they start to lose $$ from lack of products would they consider moving. Even then, that loss would have to be higher than the lessening of profit on said products due to higher wages in the other countries (plus start up costs of setting up new plants). Like they could take a 50% decrease in sales and corresponding 20% less in total profits, and that might be better than moving production and having a 25% loss in sales but a 30% loss in total profits due to higher wages. And of course, it would be a lot more attractive to just to go 'Nam, India, Mexico, etc before you bring jobs to the US at $20 an hour plus wage taxes and bennies.

The caveat is that if it looks like the plague might go on for a couple years and massively fuck up the infrastructure of said 3rd World shitholes where you can pay wages of $.60 cents an hour, it might suddenly look more attractive to pay out the ass in wages in a first world nation like the US where they can better control and treat the sickness, thus ensuring a reliable supply line.



This is where you'll know the SHTF in the US--when suddenly interstate borders close and you need travel permits to move about the country. At that point, assume we are now in a new era of life and things may never go back to normal and there could indeed be a total govt/societal collapse. We'd be in late stage Roman Empire where the national borders exist only on paper and there are in fact multiple separate countries, govt authorities, and warlords running shit (no matter how it is presented).

keep in mind most don’t own the Chinese factories they use. They simply contract them. And the brighter ones began contracting with alternatives to give themselves supply redundancy about 2 years ago. All the talk of tarriff’s and trade wars had most major brands start spinning up alternate production facilities outside of China. Of course many of those are still in Southeast Asia.

 

[LetThemEatCake]

Dr.Campbell giving advice about how to avoid exposure to the virus. Number one is isolation, number two is proper handwashing. His belief is there will be a pandemic outside China eventually.

 

[1Tonka_Truck]

The fogger reminds me of the DDT sprayers of yesteryear, although the DDT sprayers probably had more effect than this shit will.

Foggers are still used by irrigation districts. All those canals can grow a lot of mosquitoes if you let them. I don't know what pesticide they use, but whatever it's effective.

It's also used in landfills. The way they're lining it (with the bottom covering the fold of the sides) shows it's to prevent groundwater leakage. If it's not a mass grave then it's for disposing of contaminated objects as a biohazard.

That does look like a landfill cell under construction.

 

[Eryngium]

I suspect what we will see is patchiness. Imagine this getting into a retirement home, or a prison.

Don’t forget schools, kids are walking disease vectors coming from miles apart to congregate in one small badly air-conditioned area, younger ones with partially developed immune systems who piss and shit and sneeze on everything, and I assure you the one underpaid janitor they have employed won’t be busting his ass to clean everything in a timely manner.

In first world countries schools are the main vector for the seasonal flu, just some happy food for thought

 

[Otterly]

That case series paper has a number of interesting observations:

54% male cases ended up in ICU - so in fact not a significant sex difference
26% of those admitted ended up in ICU.
4.6% of those admitted died.
High proportion needed invasive ventilation or ECMO - note the number of beds where that is possible is not that high, even in western countries.
They didn’t see much improvement with antivirals (but they also treated almost half with steroids which we saw before isn’t a good idea, although here they still say cytokine storm possible)
Huge organ failure, clotting, seen. Also seen in SARS and MERS.
41% thought to be hospital acquired.

obviously 4.6% isn’t a total death rate, but even 4.6% of just those sick enough to get admitted is higher than is good.

 

[pwnest injun]

is that counting the myriad of deaths that will happen from everything grinding to a halt and mas panic/riots?

Yes, in addition to whatever else goes wrong, because there's always room for independent compounding factors to arise. Imagine it's blazing through the Summer months, and already stressed areas get hit with superstorms. Every infected area is going to be doubly vulnerable to the sorts of disasters that happen every year, regardless.

Don’t forget schools, kids are walking disease vectors coming from miles apart to congregate in one small badly air-conditioned area, younger ones with partially developed immune systems who piss and shit and sneeze on everything, and I assure you the one underpaid janitor they have employed won’t be busting his ass to clean everything in a timely manner.

In first world countries schools are the main vector for the seasonal flu, just some happy food for thought

Just imagine a fast food worker getting infected. No symptoms. Spreads it to 400 random people who all go somewhere different to spread it some more. This can get so out of hand, so fast.

 

[remiem]

That case series paper has a number of interesting observations:

54% male cases ended up in ICU - so in fact not a significant sex difference
26% of those admitted ended up in ICU.
4.6% of those admitted died.
High proportion needed invasive ventilation or ECMO - note the number of beds where that is possible is not that high, even in western countries.
They didn’t see much improvement with antivirals (but they also treated almost half with steroids which we saw before isn’t a good idea, although here they still say cytokine storm possible)
Huge organ failure, clotting, seen. Also seen in SARS and MERS.
41% thought to be hospital acquired.

obviously 4.6% isn’t a total death rate, but even 4.6% of just those sick enough to get admitted is higher than is good.

Doesn't the age play into that though? and the co-morbidity of other aliments? Older people with pre-existing conditions are more prone to either go to the hospital or be taken by relatives at the first signs of a sickness being unusual. which would put both the older person and the likely younger relative more at risk.

Anecdotally; I wouldn't necessarily go the hospital if I was feeling unwell, immediately anyway, as I'm still fairly young but if my 80+ Year Old Grandmother, RIP, was sick or picked up a cold or showed symptoms outside of her usual from her pre-existing issues we'd usually end up taking her- often multiple times.

 

[JacksonHeights]

Yes, in addition to whatever else goes wrong, beca

Don’t forget schools, kids are walking disease vectors coming from miles apart to congregate in one small badly air-conditioned area, younger ones with partially developed immune systems who piss and shit and sneeze on everything, and I assure you the one underpaid janitor they have employed won’t be busting his ass to clean everything in a timely manner.

Thats why there is no school in Vietnam, all school are shut down

 

[LetThemEatCake]

Doesn't the age play into that though? and the co-morbidity of other aliments? Older people with pre-existing conditions are more prone to either go to the hospital or be taken by relatives at the first signs of a sickness being unusual. which would put both the older person and the likely younger relative more at risk.

Anecdotally; I wouldn't necessarily go the hospital if I was feeling unwell, immediately anyway, as I'm still fairly young but if my 80+ Year Old Grandmother, RIP, was sick or picked up a cold or showed symptoms outside of her usual from her pre-existing issues we'd usually end up taking her- often multiple times.

Why would anyone go straight to a hospital? I mean, unless there is a complete abscence of primary care and you're not in an emergency situation, why go to a place that is not designed for this kind of thing in the least? Accident and emergency isn't for people who just feel sick, it's for real emergencies.

An elderly person contracting a nasty bug and showing smptoms should first contact their primery care provider who can advise if hospital is in any way necessary.

 

[remiem]

Why would anyone go straight to a hospital? I mean, unless there is a complete abscence of primary care and you're not in an emergency situation, why go to a place that is not designed for this kind of thing in the least? Accident and emergency isn't for people who just feel sick, it's for real emergencies.

An elderly person contracting a nasty bug and showing smptoms should first contact their primery care provider who can advise if hospital is in any way necessary.

I don't know if China has family doctors like other places. Given how fast it spreads I wouldn't think they do, or the doctors operate out of the hospital. You don't have this big a boom without facilitating the exposure in some manner which would theoretically be easier in a hospital because there's so much in one building.

I mean hospitals are supposed to observe some level of hygiene at all times so a handful of sick people managing to infect 40 medical staff and then more people getting sick from that? I'm not a doctor but shouldn't there be protocols in place for patients thought to have run of the mill pneumonia- it's still contagious isn't it? To limit medical staff from spreading it around?

Spoiler: PERSONALLY

In the case of my grandmother. She had Kidney Failure and her 'primary care' was in the hospital where she had dialysis as a result. She was also limited mobility so any transport had to be by ambulance.

 

[la mort]

Coronavirus Death Toll Rises to 805, Passing SARS: Virus Update
By Linly Lin and Lulu Yilun Chen
February 8, 2020, 5:18 PM ESTUpdated on February 8, 2020, 5:49 PM EST

The coronavirus disease spreading around the world has killed 805 people, exceeding the death toll from the global outbreak of SARS that started in China almost two decades ago.
Reported cases in China alone exceed 36,693 less than two months after surfacing in late December in Wuhan.

The 2002-2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, killed 774 people and sickened almost 8,100 others, in 26 countries, over eight months, the World Health Organization said. Mainland China accounted for about 45% of SARS deaths.
Key Developments

• Hubei province deaths at 780; confirmed cases at 27,100
• Singapore confirms seven new cases, pushes total to 40
• Five Britons on ski holiday in French Alps are infected
• Carmaker VW delays restarting China joint ventures
• World’s retailers take hit as Chinese shoppers stay home

Article

 

[HonsPonzud]

Well, these numbers would get my head spinning if there is a chanc, that, any data this guy is presenting is true :

Tommaso Scelzo on Twitter

“Chinese Goverment is hiding the truth about #coronavirus deaths and confirmed cases are way more then they say.. https://t.co/iNLnvwNjb8”

twitter.com

Again, to take with a grain of salt it's easy to fall for dramatisation in these times but we all know China numbers are bullshit.

Still, the truth might be in the middle somewhere.

 

[This_is_a_Throwaway]

Oh boy, now the supply chains are getting hit, this is where things get really fucked.
When do you think fuel and fertilizer supplies will take a dip?

Companies like dorman are going to get fucked as they source their wares from china.

 

[Slimboy Fat]

I'm baffled people are still running with the official number

They're building a mass grave for fucks sakes

 

[737 MAX Stan Account]

If there's one positive to this, it's that the world finally gets to see what a massive farce orgs like the UN and the WHO are. I hope the 30 pieces of silver were worth it.

 

[MarvinTheParanoidAndroid]

Someone may have already posted this but /pol/ had someone who probably wasn't a larper last night claiming deaths were massively higher than reported.

Spoiler: China Hospital Guy

View attachment 1136087

30% death rate and four hundred new people who die of pneumonia or spontaneous fever death a day.

I think at this point it's pretty much confirmed that this disease was absolutely bio-engineered. Only something concocted in a lab specifically to genocide a country could have that sort of efficacy in a world with modern sanitation. It wouldn't be the first time this happened, only we got off extraordinarily lucky because Russia knew to keep their diabolical plague-weapons isolated to an island one could potentially glass from orbit if it ever got out of hand or posed too big a risk.

 

[wtfNeedSignUp]

Wasn't there a rumour that 3 weeks before the story broke out China was already mass ordering medical equipment? Was this confirmed or debunked?