so quick question if China goes to civil war? how would it affect the US?
A Civil War in China would look something like this:
- Breakdown of social order, fights in the streets, lots of traffic on WeChat about how those guys in the other city are responsible for X social ills, but coming from everywhere
- The moment it impacts the economy, huge worldwide PR campaign condemning whoever they decide to scapegoat
- A government crackdown we never hear about, followed by some grand gestures for human rights from dissident groups, lots of stories about disappearances
- A disaster, described as an accident, where public infrastructure is damaged. Most likely a high-speed train goes off the rails killing a lot of people
- A government crackdown that we do see, CCP projections of power start to break down as people openly criticize the government
- Western economists warn of global recession as Chinese exports take longer to deliver despite infrastructure improvements
- CCP hires ex-soldiers to bolster ranks of secret police force, people with divided loyalties who have been arguing over pensions, some chaos ensues
- Assassinations, CCP officials targeted in public, kidnappings of their children, denouncements of public figures on social media, lots of people with masks doing ISIS-level shit on video
- One or more provinces declares autonomy, CCP negotiates to settle things down while assassinating leaders and beating people in the streets similar to Hong Kong
- Infrastructure gets really fucked up. Ships sinking in deep water ports, airplanes going down, talk of Western corporations pulling people out. Rebels focus on supply chains and anything visible to the West
- Chinese economic collapse, unable to secure transportation lines, one or more ports occupied, food and environmental insecurity
- Western economic collapse, UK and USA hardest hit, China dumps t-bills on the market to make USD toxic, worldwide groan as people move to digital currency
- CCP unrest, party leadership changes, warhawk takes over and starts killing people, declares the rest of the world is racist, starts public hangings, Cult of Mao is on the streets again
- Rebels mysteriously come across weapons caches and fight CCP, one or more cities falls, hard power on the march, stories about 100k+ dying in a day (mostly civilians)
- Korea / India / Russia secure borders, African nations send peacekeeping forces
- UNHRC takes strong pro-CCP stance, calls for intervention, vetoed by US. Non-profits go off the rails, Amnesty International goes after US and EU leaders for inaction, massive state-wide protests shut down Western Economies.
- Within 2 years, collapse of digital currencies due to massive fraud, turns out Chinese rebels were manipulating currency to convert into hard assets
- One or more disasters in China where reactors / refineries / energy plants detonate due to fighting
- 75% population reduction in China due to death and resettlement in Western Nations, entrenched forces refuse to back down, 10 year cycle to rebuild domestic economies in US and Europe, African Economic Union becomes world leader, Japan-based Pacific Economic Union becomes world leader, Russia projects power into the Middle East to form new coalition block, NATO is constantly entangled in small-scale skirmishes with ethnic-separatist groups funded by other blocks
- About a 50% of a nuclear exchange during this period not involving China, but involving one or more blocks. Not WWIII, does not involve the West but may involve weapons sold by the West
- At the end of the cycle, Mao-like figure emerges, China goes into rebuilding mode. About half the country is sparsely populated, de-industrialized, and occupied by other countries. Western governments put forth the idea of reforming China into 10 or so autonomous states, fierce resistance from everyone else but it happens eventually.
