Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

[Gravityqueen4life]

fuck im going to Polen in april. i hope it stays away from there.

 

[Sissy Galvez]

"First successful lung transplant of ncovid19 patient in China"

How much does this virus fuck you up? I've had pneumonia before don't remember getting my lungs replaced

I’d guess severe lung issues or disease before getting sick but isn’t it risky to transplant lungs during the middle of a viral infection?

Any bets on how high the Washington numbers will be in a week? My guess is over 1k. Italy is still rapidly exploding in cases everyday and that’s the only place with accurate numbers.

China is fucking lying to save their manufacturing and economy. I don’t buy it’s slowing down there at all. They infected the world and care more about saving face, fucking bat soup eating degenerates.

 

[remiem]

I've been thinking: Is the reason why people downplaying the %2 morality rate because it seems like a small number? People usually know about %50, %70, and so on. But they don't know it apples to the billions of the human population itself and yet its still visibly a small number. I'm thinking it's also the same reason why flu is downplayed despite having a lesser number of %.3. To this day, I still can't how wrap %2 is bad because I don't know how to apply it to such a large number of the population (and math isn't my strong suit), but it is drilled in my head with seeing it as "Someone you know will most likely die when/if they get it".

Population of Earth is estimated at 7.53 Billion. 2% of 76.53 Billion is 150,600,000. One hundred fifty million, six hundred thousand. That's still a lot of people if it gets really really bad.

I’ll probably get a zero wrong and look like an utter plank but 7.5 billion people on earth, 1% of that is 75 million. 1% is in first world countries with good healthcare - place like Iran are showing us it can go much higher. Let’s say 2% as an average. That’s 150 million dead if everyone is infected. Let’s say 1/3 to 2/3 of people are infected (i’d go for the upper number because this is so novel and no one has any defence, people had seen flu before and the lower death rates in the elderly may have been from seeing a similar enough strain in the late 1800s) so between 50-100 million dead.
1918 death estimates vary but are between 50-100 million dead with 1/3 of earth getting it, 1/5 sickening significantly and 3-5% of them dying. There were roughly 1.8 billion on the planet then (we have fucked up enormously population wise...)
The next eight weeks/average 4 transmission cycles will show us what we are dealing with. There are still a lot of variables unknown. Absolute best case scenario is akin to a very nasty flu year. Worst case is 18m of significant strain in health systems, civil unrest and supply chains breaking and a lot of dead people

U sniped me Otterly! I'd say a poc upon you as a joke but that'd be out of line in current circumstances.

HOWEVER. It's not being downplayed if anything it's being up-played? As it's been seen in the last few pages you have to considers that a lot of people are probably low or no symptoms and that's why it's spreading as it is. You can't really get real numbers until you're post an outbreak because the goal posts constantly shift during one. If this all ended tomorrow and they started testing people for anti-bodies to see who was actually sick you'd see the mortality rate drop down further because you'll suddenly have X number of cases of people who recovered just fine without any medical intervention. Correct?

Seeing a lot of fearmongering that WuFlu will cause Great Depression 2.0.

If WuFlu is just a superflu that primarily affects young children, the elderly, and immunocompromised in terms of mortality, like the "regular flu" and has a mortality rate similar to the "regular flu" (and its strains), why is it the next Black Plague?

It's not but there's always people who love to fear-monger and China's response, or lack thereof, has resulted in unnecessary sickness worldwide. People are already pissed at China and how many orgs are in their pocket so it's easy to make the leap too, China has started the next plague! because their image is more important than world health. All the prep talk in this thread isn't exactly realistic but there's always a risk you'll be under quarantine and you should be prepared. Just don't take the whole the world is gonna end stockpile water and ammo at face value. Even if stuff does get bad humans are incredibly resilient and we will make it through this, it'll just be hard times for a while.

Children actually don't seem to be affected much, I don't think there's been a single death in someone under 9 Years Old. The immuno-compromised and already sickly are suffering the most. Highest death rates are in the 75+ range with the 80+ who're usually already sickly being the worst hit.

It is an economic plague though because of the obvious reliance the world has on China currently.

 

[Feline Supremacist]

The pet pharmacy is all out of Fish Mox antibiotics. There are cephalosporins and cipro from another supplier nope those are unavailable as well. Amoxicillin is unavailable. So it begins.

 

[MadStan]

No country has enough hospital beds. No country has enough Health Care workers for a virus on this scale. Expect the CDC and WH to order sporting events and other transport systems to start winding down within 7 days. Sunday football tonight might be the last Sunday football for 2 months. If not this Sunday, certainly by next March 10th.

We aren't trying to stop the virus - that's futile, instead we want to slow it down to we don't have more patients than beds.

 

[EmuWarsVeteran]

No, the Coronavirus Was Not Bioengineered

As I’m sure most of you are aware, there is an ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus causing something of a panic around the world. At the time of writing,...

www.youtube.com

Thoughts?

Myles is a very intelligent and educated man. More importantly he does his homework. Which incidentally means he's slower than these thread. Go a few pages back and you'll find all these info and even a kiwi doing the BLAST. My opinion back then was it probably escaped from a lab, it might be man made, either way we have no evidence to prove it. He didn't change that opinion.

No country has enough hospital beds. No country has enough Health Care workers for a virus on this scale. Expect the CDC and WH to order sporting events and other transport systems to start winding down within 7 days. Sunday football tonight might be the last Sunday football for 2 months. If not this Sunday, certainly by next March 10th.

We aren't trying to stop the virus - that's futile, instead we want to slow it down to we don't have more patients than beds.

Most infected don't need hospital stay. Most 1st world countries have a robust enough healthcare system to treat those who'll need it.

 

[Aib Ld]

Let’s say 1/3 to 2/3 of people are infected (i’d go for the upper number because this is so novel and no one has any defence, people had seen flu before and the lower death rates in the elderly may have been from seeing a similar enough strain in the late 1800s) so between 50-100 million dead.

Population of Earth is estimated at 7.53 Billion. 2% of 76.53 Billion is 150,600,000. One hundred fifty million, six hundred thousand. That's still a lot of people if it gets really really bad.

Wow, that's bad now that I understand it. Thanks!
But wouldn't a morality rate like %2 seem a bit...overestimated? Since you get people that are living in poor conditions which make them a easy meal for the virus as we're already seeing. I always thought it would read like just dying to the virus only, not adding outside factors.

 

[ColtWalker1847]

No, the Coronavirus Was Not Bioengineered

As I’m sure most of you are aware, there is an ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus causing something of a panic around the world. At the time of writing,...

www.youtube.com

Thoughts?

He's right in that that paper doesn't say what Alex Jones proclaims it does. Typical FUD conspiracy nonsense from Alex.

 

[simulated goat]

More about the lung transplants:

Jennifer Zeng 曾錚 on Twitter

“Chilling "good" news. Chinese doctor Chen Jingyu's team has successfully conducted World's first double lung transplant for a 59 y/o #COVID2019 patient. Offical report says "Experts in the industry believe this case is of great significance to reduce mortality of #Coronavirus."”

twitter.com

Spoiler: full size

People were bringing up ways to stress out less during this with all these news stories coming out rapidly with sensationalist stories.
I recommend watching tons of comedy movies. That's a good distraction if you want a break.

Here's one I bet many haven't seen, it's called "One, Two, Three" and was directed by Billy Wilder at the height of the cold war in the early sixties. The plot revolves around a guy who works for coca-cola in West Berlin having to chaperone his manager's daughter for several months while she visits and gets romantically
entangled with a communist. I saw it for the first time a couple of months ago and was floored: the cold war humor has aged like fine wine and the rapid 'Front Page' delivery from James Cagney is amazing to watch. I seriously have not laughed so much at a movie in years. Would recommend to bunkered Kiwis, they don't make them like that anymore.

 

[MadStan]

Whether we get goods from China or not, the economic disaster will unfold for all countries - regardless of whom they rely on for goods and services. The cascade effect of the virus outside of China would be enough to cascade back to China and collapse its economy even if it didn't start there. Whether it starts up or down from the supply chain from the consumer down to the manufacturer or vice versa. What we've seen on the Dow is just the tip of the iceberg in recognizing this fact. The USA without the world economy is bankrupt; our reserve dollars pointless and our export ability crushed. The cascade effect from airlines shutting or slowing down is enough to fill an encyclopedia with immense effects worldwide in thousands of areas. Every industry inside and outside of China is going to be slammed.

And then when we want to talk about the cascade effect of Junk Bonds, over-burdened financed Rigs in Texas and margin calls being made to bankers on the Dow's rocket ride down...that's another set of encyclopedias.

This week - March 2nd to March 6th will be a week of recon for all markets worldwide as the short, medium and long term effects of the virus are finally priced in. Some fortunes will be made, most will be lost.

Expect a bounce as corporations exercise their right to massive buy-backs on their own shares at a great discount in this dip, but they will not defy gravity. Gravity will win. The talk about armaggedon financial meltdown-horse-shit-bloggers-predict-it-every-month year after year are over - we are here, it is happening this year and we are bearing witness to it in real time. Conspiracy theories are out the window because it is actually happening right now.

At the end of this meltdown, the corporations who have stuffed 1.5 Trillion in cash away will be able to borrow at a 5:1 ration and come up with 7.5 Trillion dollars worth of buying capacity and gobble up other corporations and companies for a song.

We will all suffer, and some super-giant corporations will be borne from this mess by December 2020, with GDPs the size of large countries, and will exert their will with relative ease.

 

[Otterly]

But wouldn't a morality rate like %2 seem a bit...overestimated? Since you get people that are living in poor conditions which make them a easy meal for the virus as we're already seeing

We don’t actually know the mortality rate yet because we don’t know how many cases are undetected in the community. Iran was at 9% last time I looked but again that’s 9% of the known cases, the mild ones aren’t being tested. 9% of people who turn up to hospital with something dying is scary. Only when we start to do widespread testing will we see how many people have been exposed to this. At the moment we are working on 1-3% because that’s the best we have. In a rich country with decent medical care it’ll be at the lower end, as long as we have capacity to treat. When we have more critical patients than beds, that number will go up.
However - 2% for a virus that causes severe respiratory distress and that humanity has never been exposed to is not at all unrealistic. Spanish flu killed 3-5%, and humanity has some degree of prior encounter with flu. This thing is sufficiently different to anything humans have encountered widely that we are immune naive to it. 2% isn’t overblown. It may be lower than that if we see loads of mild cases too, but it isn’t unrealistic. I think it’ll level out about 1-1.5% in the first world. For anywhere with no health provision, much higher

 

[Spawn]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/01/coronavirus-live-updates/

The novel coronavirus has probably been spreading undetected for about six weeks in Washington state, where the first U.S. death was reported this weekend. A genetic analysis suggests that the cases are linked through community transmission and that this has been going on for weeks, with hundreds of infections likely in the state.
Two new cases were confirmed in Washington state’s King County on Sunday, bringing that state’s total to eight. Rhode Island also announced its first probable case. If confirmed, it will be the second on the East Coast, after a previously announced case in Massachusetts. The Rhode Island patient is in his 40s and had traveled to Europe in mid-February.
The global death toll is climbing toward 3,000 on four continents. The first U.S. death, in Washington state, was man in his 50s with underlying health conditions, officials said. The patient had no recent travel history or contact with people known to be infected, officials said.


Officials in the Seattle area are monitoring a possibly outbreak at a long-term nursing home. The elderly are considered to be especially vulnerable to infection. One patient is a health-care worker in her 40s who was in satisfactory condition, according to state health officials. The other, a resident in her 70s, is in serious condition.

Welp there goes Seattle I'll miss the grunge music but not the coffee and liberal bullshit.

 

[Ear]

Twelve more confirmed cases in England:

Thirteen coronavirus cases take UK total to 36

Scotland's first diagnosis is among the new cases, along with 12 more patients from England.

www.bbc.com

Can't wait to navigate the germ soup that is the public transport system tomorrow morning. Actually, that would be helpful - guidance for obligate commuters who don't have the option to 'catch it, bin it, kill it' as we're packed in like sardines and there are no damn bins. Give up and embrace Nurgle?

 

[Shield Breaker]

A little bird has told me of a woman, a doctor, coming back from Iran via Frankfurt Airport, who is infected but avoided detection by taking meds. Waiting for further information, if the flight she takes or has taken is known etc.

Even if it isn't as bad as people here think, any asshole who does this needs to be prosecuted and or sued for the costs of anyone who is infected by her. That is the only way to get idiots to not do that.

 

[remiem]

More about the lung transplants:

Jennifer Zeng 曾錚 on Twitter

“Chilling "good" news. Chinese doctor Chen Jingyu's team has successfully conducted World's first double lung transplant for a 59 y/o #COVID2019 patient. Offical report says "Experts in the industry believe this case is of great significance to reduce mortality of #Coronavirus."”

twitter.com

Spoiler: full size

View attachment 1168342

View attachment 1168342


Here's one I bet many haven't seen, it's called "One, Two, Three" and was directed by Billy Wilder at the height of the cold war in the early sixties. The plot revolves around a guy who works for coca-cola in West Berlin having to chaperone his manager's daughter for several months while she visits and gets romantically
entangled with a communist. I saw it for the first time a couple of months ago and was floored: the cold war humor has aged like fine wine and the rapid 'Front Page' delivery from James Cagney is amazing to watch. I seriously have not laughed so much at a movie in years. Would recommend to bunkered Kiwis, they don't make them like that anymore.

Something about this isn't adding up. This guy has to be a party member of importance or something, otherwise this is nonsense- risky nonsense. You can't claim lung transplants are a way to reduce morality when you need another healthy set of lungs to replace the old ones AND those lungs could very well end up infected after the fact. The massive influx of dead wouldn't be prime candidates either because they'd probably be in rough shape / or died of Corona themselves.

This is super poorly translated and/or incredibly sinister.

 

[Heinous Fuckery]

Suriving the apocalypse by ordering everything off Amazon Prime must be peak 'murica. The only possible way to increase the amount of 'murica would be to throw in a mobility scooter and an M4.

Throw in a super-sized extra value meal delivered via UberEats and I'd say you are spot on!

 

[Leonard Helplessness]

I'm in the Midwest. Did grocery shopping today. A lady was demanding to know where all the masks were and some poor fuck of a wage slave was trying to tell her that all the store had left were, like, wet wipes.

Thank you, Dr. Purr. Very cool.

 

[MediocreMilt]

Because it'll re-infect you, and instead of giving you a fever, it'll give you a fucking heart attack.

Was that part ever actually confirmed? I remember people freaking out about it, but never a credible source.

 

[Male Idiot]

Something about this isn't adding up. This guy has to be a party member of importance or something, otherwise this is nonsense- risky nonsense. You can't claim lung transplants are a way to reduce morality when you need another healthy set of lungs to replace the old ones AND those lungs could very well end up infected after the fact. The massive influx of dead wouldn't be prime candidates either because they'd probably be in rough shape / or died of Corona themselves.

This is super poorly translated and/or incredibly sinister.

There are plenty of dissidents in China who are more than happy to totally willingly donate their lungs for the Party. This is no surprise.

 

[qu_rahn]

"First successful lung transplant of ncovid19 patient in China"

How much does this virus fuck you up? I've had pneumonia before don't remember getting my lungs replaced

Yeah pneumonia can sometimes cause scarring in the lungs (pulmonary fibrosis). https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/pulmonary-fibrosis/symptoms-causes/syc-20353690

If the person is a heavy smoker and/or exposed to a lot of pollution then their lungs are probably in bad shape to begin with