Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

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A Chinese film director and his whole family died of the coronavirus. Four people in the same household. If we assume a mortality rate as high as 5%, this is like landing on the same side of a D20 four times in a row. That’s a 1 in 160,000 chance.

1 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 = 0.000625.

1 / 0.000625 = 160,000.

If the mortality rate is so low, how the fuck is it wiping people out like that?
Statistically unlikely events surface in the real world all the time. You cannot analyze an entire dataset (that is, all Coronavirus deaths) using only a small subset of observations. A sample size of four will be more likely to exhibit extremes than a sample size of 40,000.

That’s leaving aside confounding possibilities, like that they may have had a genetic vulnerability on both sides of the family, or that they may have caught a rarer, more virulent form of the virus.
 
It’s not a nothing burger. Nor is it quite what the media hysteria would have you panic over. There are some worrying things out there. Like the fear there may be two or more strains in play. One, relatively mild, moving eastward across Southeast Asia and the US west coast. And one that went westward and is currently racking up a body count in Iran. It’s hard to know for sure because third world theocratic hell holes tend to be worse sources of data than China.
I guess Italy is a theocratic hellhole
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>Inb4 more people recovered than dead
Recovered people can get reinfected
 
Statistically unlikely events surface in the real world all the time. You cannot analyze an entire dataset (that is, all Coronavirus deaths) using only a small subset of observations. A sample size of four will be more likely to exhibit extremes than a sample size of 40,000.

That’s leaving aside confounding possibilities, like that they may have had a genetic vulnerability on both sides of the family, or that they may have caught a rarer, more virulent form of the virus.

There is also a possibility that there is higher mortality associated with higher, shared viral load. If they were all in close proximity, they could have been giving each other large “doses” of the virus. There are reports coming in that this is associated with higher mortality:


Most of the deaths from the virus have been of older people with existing health problems, but disease specialists said Li's work — eye doctors sit very close to their patients during examinations — may have subjected him to an extra large dose of the virus that made his illness more severe.

People who are sick should be immediately isolated from the healthy (and also from other sick). Their cross-infection could be increasing their viral loads and mortality. This is also a major risk for healthcare workers who are repeatedly exposed to the sick.
 
There is also a possibility that there is higher mortality associated with higher, shared viral load. If they were all in close proximity, they could have been giving each other large “doses” of the virus. There are reports coming in that this is associated with higher mortality:
Yeah makes sense​
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Info: most of that front row is already 6 feet under.​
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Yeah those numbers are underreported lets not go thru this again pls.​
India Bans Many Pharmaceutical Exports
Tldr: how dare you, even consider a tldr!?​
Live: Governor Newsom talks about California’s plans to fight COVID-19 (Coronavirus).
Tldr: Ship to san fran. delayed, tests to be conducted, some of the crew show symptoms.​
 
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My university just sent an email to all students that they are restricting travel.

And this isn't some minor community college, it is a full on state sponsored college that teaches up to doctorate level.

Will be interesting to see how far this goes in my neck of the woods.
 
Amazon search data from 2/23 - 2/29 shows that all of the top 13 searches on the site were related to masks or hand sanitizer except for two. #9 searched term was "iPhone 11 case" and #12 is "airpods." #1 is "n95 mask" and #2 was "hand sanitizer".

This is in contrast to the two weeks prior, where the top searches were mostly all Apple products. People are searching much more for masks and all different types of masks, including "dust mask" and "coronavirus mask".
 
The great toilet paper crisis 2020

People all over the world are buying tp like crazy.

Its all fun and games till you have to wipe with your hand.

Global Health Security Index has published its latest on responce to pandemics, epidemics etc and UK NUMBA WAN

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For actually fighting the damn thing.

Though it should be said UK cases are now 87.

I see this and think, given what I see any given day from US officials in general that all you all in other countries are totally screwed because if your lower than the US clown show just what kinda circus do you have.
 
There is a real problem with this piece-meal quarantining. The horse has already left the barn if we only go after symptomatic cases - and that't the only procedure that Western countries are using and it is NOT working. Can't work. Won't work.

The G7 is going to have to make a decision in the next 7-14 days to shut down all International Flight, or accept 500,000,000 million cases within 8 months, plus the piece-meal approach allows this virus to go back and forth between the hemispheres by season.

They have to make a decision in the next 7-10 days. Accept a bitter global economic pill, or face an amputation. You can't have your cake with this virus. No more sports, schools, rallies, nothing. The CDC has told the Whitehouse what they must do - and frankly I wouldn't expect a Democratic or Republican President to have the will to order what must be done - you are dooming your economy.

The piece-meal is a very deadly way to operate this virus. Don't be fooled by China's success, when they go back to work, they will have re-infection on a scale that obviously dwarfs what they've had to date.

Wait until you see the economic impact in Italy and France as a month from now the cascade effect takes place and slows their economies to a crawl - and worse, because other countries won't do it at the same time, the pain will last months.

Expect some surprises in the United States as the CDC, and the government ask citizens to self-restrict travel, and watch it all unravel. This isn't a drill, it Is going to happen. this year. We're all witnesses to a new stress of the Globe.
 
Well time for a recap. For those who haven't seen my prior comment. RTVE just made a coronavirus special. Here's the link to the recording: https://www.rtve.es/m/alacarta/vide...coronavirus-combatir-miedo/5530140/?media=tve

And since the main objective was to combat panic before it explodes like it has in italy, and lets remember RTVE stands for "SPANISH TV", as in, it's the OFFICIAL GUVERNMENTAL CHAIN and definitely VETOED BY THE GOVERNMENT, you can imagine it was setting up to be one bland sack of nothing. Well. It kinda was. But it also had some top kek I seriously did not expect. Here's the highlights:

1-right from the start we see the pannel has the 2 top most (according to our government) scientists for this fact (the chief of the national biotechnology institute, which rose through the ranks of the ISCIII first fair and square, and the chief of alarm of the ISCIII, basically the spanish surgeon general of sorts (we have no solid equivalent but it's the closest) who also got ghere through sheer results. I already talked about the second one, Fernando Simon. The first I hadn't heard about but checking my sources she's apparently just as solid academically, two utter bosses... and then there's a hospital director. Oh the fucking keks. This third guy was a catalonian (fucking kek) administrative branch (meaning chosen through pure nepotism, now thanks to europe tests have been implemented but at the time this guy got hired the administrative branch was literally chosen by superior with no checks or balances, nothing but nepotism) hospital director with no firm scientific studies or academic background (fucking business student. THE KEK IS REAL!) And it showed! Just at a glance both scientists were wearing street clothes, relaxed, explaining things semi-technically but trying to keep it understandable. Having a clear and understandable message like "information has to be relativized (that is, given with context), don't focus on number of infected, take into account where they are and how its spreading" (we'll get into the china callouts later) Meanwhile this mofo in suit and tie looked like a red fat toad in the corner throwing bloody generalisms like "don't listen to rumors listen to data!", the looks Simon gave him were fucking amazing at points. Poor guy's clearly used to dealing with scientists and this catalonian just really was trying his best but had no fucking clue where he was bloody kek it was glorious.

2-The WHO. Oh the WHO it was fucking glorious god damn it was short as shit but the presenter fucking wrecked them so hard! Well I mean not directly sadly but, let me explain. So basically. They got an interview with someone from WHO. And first question was a total softball. Even the interviewer sorta stopped for a second and resaid one word like she was doing a double take and from the tone of her voice you could tell she was dying inside. The question was something like "well, epidemic, pandemic, these are words that can cause panic so I guess you have to be really careful with what you say right?" Which of course just got the WHO spokesperson to rant about harmful language and how we can't use those words... I swear it was cringeinducing.

It was also a setup. Which became evident when the second question was "So. Is the who gonna declare this a pandemic? What are the protocols for it?" MY SIDES LORD KEK TAKE ME I CAN'T TAKE THIS ANYMORE. You need to see the reaction by the WHO oh I hope english translations pop up soon the way she immediately went from "epidemic is a naughty word" to "this is DEFINITELY an epidemic no reason to call it a pandemic no siree" oh jebus christ thank you for this blessing. Oh and the way she went from "no reason to panic" to immediately proclaiming "well we already declared it an international healthcare emergency which is the HIGHEST LEVEL OF ALARM the WHO can declare" yes deary thanks for admitting how hypocritical you fucks are. Oh and the fact she had to admit it can't be officially declared a pandemic because there is no protocol, and how she tried to save it by saying "well since PANdemic you know if it gets to ALL countries then it would be a pandemic but even then it could be a pandemic and only spread to a few people in each country" IM NOT EXAGGERATING SHE SAID THAT. Oh my lord my sides have left this plane of existance! The interview was done short after and honestly I didn't even pay too much attention because I was too busy trying to remember how to breathe. Let me please remind you THE SPANISH GOVERNMENT SAW THIS IN ADVANCE AND DECIDED TO LET IT THROUGH. Holy shit this was not an interview it was murder.

3-And, CHINA! Oh the massive audience winking moments. Right from the start of the segment the presenter proclaimed "the numbers in china have been reduced, APPARENTLY", and the way she said it was like she was trying her hardest to wink at the camera without actually winking, just, everything about the tone of her voice proclaimed "not". Then they got in contact with one of the journos that have been closed on pekin under watch and the way she actually proclaimed out loud "well in china you can never be sure because everything is always censored and you always need to separate the data from the propaganda the government adds to it" Like, that's not me inferring shit I'm paraphrasing out of memory but THAT WAS SAID, ON TV, AFTER ANALYSIS BY THE SPANISH GOV. I swear our current president has no balls but whoever he put on TV duty sure has balls for the rest of the damned country! And it doesn't end there. The segment was of course covered in faux praise but it kept focusing on things like how she got turned away from places, how empty the streets were, and she even subtly got to basically tell the camera non verbally how stupid the CCP is by in the middle of the street taking her mask off and starting to list the laws passed restricting liberties just to end with the law forcing people to wear masks on the street which she explained while carrying her mask on her hand. Take into account that the official spanish gov stance has been from minute 1 that if you're not going to crowded places and not going to small rooms there's no point to masks, which is the reasonable stance btw, so this was fairly blatantly a callout. Aside from that the segment ended PRAISING SOCIAL MEDIA FOR BREAKING CCP CENSORSHIP AND BEING THE "THERMOMETER" OF THE SITUATION IN CHINA BY BEING THE MOST RELIABLE SOURCE OF DATA. China eat your fucking heart out! This was so fucking satisfying to hear I swear I cackled maniacly at some point.

Other than that I do like that one of the most emphasized messages was "be prepared so as to protect the people around you but don't take drastic measures", a continuatio of Fernando Simon's "the disease is worrying but not severe" message. Thankfully our media has its shit together and so far it seems most of the population does too.

Also we got a second dead. Dunno anything about him just thag he was on Pais Vasco, a northern rural region.
 
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Pharmacy fag again. Still no cases anywhere near me, but the store I work at has now become back ordered on: masks, hand sanitizer, nitrile and latex gloves, rubbing alcohol, aloe, Lysol, and baby wipes (wat). People are going ape shit all around here. I feel like if these people (many of whom are medicaid chimps) are so afraid of this virus, why not stock up on actual necessities and quarantine yourselves?! Stay in your hovels and away from me.

Eta: my "wat" regarding the baby wipes was more of a "how are these backordered" type pondering. But, considering they are anti-bacterial and used for multiple purposes, it does make sense when I think into it.
 
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What the fuck is mask gonna do. Just take the corona in your ass like a boss.
So you minimize the chance of inhaling particles?

Any whoo I kept getting low ball offers for my docs I got one potential client if he low balls me like the last 3 I'll go ahead and drop them on here.
it's just stats of cremations from wuhan stats of people being admitted to hospital and their layouts for the fly by night hospitals they built.
 
Cuomo was given dictatorial powers by the state legislature yesterday, I'm sure he'll do the right thing and use them carefully. Riiight.

Today before I heard this I heard Cuomo was "ordering state college students abroad to come home and be quarantined" and I thought "how the fuck can he 'order' students, even SUNY ones, to do anything?"

Apparently this is how. :chicken:
 
Yeah makes sense​
coofedycoof.jpg
Info: most of that front row is already 6 feet under.​
Screenshot-15.png
Yeah those numbers are underreported lets not go thru this again pls.​
India Bans Many Pharmaceutical Exports
Tldr: how dare you, even consider a tldr!?​
Live: Governor Newsom talks about California’s plans to fight COVID-19 (Coronavirus).
Tldr: Ship to san fran. delayed, tests to be conducted, some of the crew show symptoms.​
Hopefully not late, but it took me forever to find the list of drugs that the Indians are restricting from exporting.

If someone could upload the .pdf as well that would be stellar. So far the ones kn the list seem to be antibiotics, birth control, or pain relievers.
 
I cannot fathom how Emeral city comic convention is continuing given the recent events in Washington. How is it no one has forced them to reschedule or just cancel it? Employers In Seattle, Nordstrom and others, are telling employees to stay home, offices are shutting down.

They still want 100k people in a fucking convention center in the worst state hit by the coronavirus?? Why are people so goddamn stupid in the US?
 
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