Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

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"Using the computer for entertainment. What are you, some kind of no-life screen addict?"-Boomers, probably.

Aside from boomers, from university I noticed that many people spend all their free time travelling, going to nightclubs, doing extracurriculars, and generally having a life. The only time they use the Internet is to post about the above on social media or access online course material. Imagine telling one of those people to sit still for two weeks, they'd make Karen look like a kindly old lady.

Also because of all the resume material and connections they accumulate from said extracurriculars, and the money supply required to travel that often people like them probably represent the upper-middle class.
Yeah, people are absolutely refusing to change their habits. I saw tons of people prepping before heading out to the nightclub, and my friends think I'm absolutely paranoid to cancel plans to go to concerts or out to eat. The attitude I keep seeing is "well, I'm not saying it isn't serious but we can't let it run our lives" like the world will end if you stop going out to the movie theater or out to eat for awhile.

I'm just so confused why people are stockpiling and then continuing to go out as much as they did before. Part of the reason you get all that stuff is so you don't have to go out as much.
 
Italy has a birthrate problem. People in general are waiting to have kids and those who do, typically have 1.5 kids per couple, last time I checked. They have a long life expectancy, so you have a population that has high numbers, of two generations of elderly. So in terms of the entire population of people living in the hot-zones, there are more susceptible people per 100,000.

It isn't like Palestine, where you have some elderly, and women have their first kid at like 20, and go on to have 5 more. And by extension, many people in their 20's, 30's and 40's.
You're probably right. This was published yesterday:
The national health institute said the average age of those who have died was 81, with the majority suffering from underlying health problems. An estimated 72% of all those who have died were men.

According to government data, 4.25% of individuals confirmed to have the coronavirus in Italy have died, the highest rate in the world.

The country has one of the world's oldest populations.
Emphasis mine. The average is 81? Explains a lot. In comparison, the Chinese numbers for ages 80+ give a 15% fatality rate; for South Korea it's 6% or so (but the sample isn't very large).
 
I found this guy Market Ticker . He's not medical , just some stock market watcher with a website design from 1995.
He tries to put some numbers on the likely outcomes, like we all are in this thread.
I like his rule of thumb : If you can climb several flights of stairs without getting winded, or run a 10K, you'll be OK. HAES fatties will be wiped out.

One thing which I hope someone who knows what they're talking about can comment on:


So can anyone (Lets be honest , Otterly or the spanish Emu guy) say if this is true?

I'm not sure about his percentages but mechanical ventilation carries its own significant risks.

All of the care we're able to offer at the moment is supportive care - ie, keeping people alive until the virus runs its course and trying to prevent complications. That could change rapidly or it might not change at all in the short term.
 
I found this guy Market Ticker . He's not medical , just some stock market watcher with a website design from 1995.
He tries to put some numbers on the likely outcomes, like we all are in this thread.
I like his rule of thumb : If you can climb several flights of stairs without getting winded, or run a 10K, you'll be OK. HAES fatties will be wiped out.

One thing which I hope someone who knows what they're talking about can comment on:


So can anyone (Lets be honest , Otterly or the spanish Emu guy) say if this is true?

Also , with all due respect to Uncle Joe and Johnny, I am starting to get actually worried now. Much more so than yesterday when I was still fairly sanguine. I know the absolute numbers are still very low in real terms, but I understand exponential growth. Not sure everybody else does...
Normal life is still carrying on as normal round here, work, schools etc. I wonder when that will change?

I mean there are plenty of average size people who cannot climb several flights of stairs without getting winded. They also wouldn't be able to run a 10K. If you take an elevator every day to work even at a healthy normal size and then are expected to walk 5 or 6 flights of stairs you're likely to be winded. If you're not someone active and did a 10K you're going to be winded, possibly shit your pants, and be sore as hell. I don't think it's the best rule of thumb.

The better measure is your age, general health, lack of other health issues, air quality where you live, sea level, stress level, and how much sleep you get.

You could be a bean thin twenty something with asthma and this kill you while the slightly overweight neighbor who currently doesn't have any other issues could survive. Disease just be that way.
 
Apparently it’s someone young with no underlying health conditions either.

That's the nightmare scenario people have been fearing, although current statistics suggest that young people are at low risk.
 
It’s not a bad system amd we do have good disaster plans. It’s not a perfect system - there is no perfect health system. Some of the European ones do better, but it’s not bad. It’s plagued with too many managers, and structural issues that make too many people use the emergency (A&E.) but the problem is that the scale and speed of the epidemic is going to be such (if left unchecked) that We are going to see demand outstrip supply. We are going to know who needs ICU, but we don’t have enough beds. There are only so many places with mechanical ventilation capacity. Only so many beds. If the projections are right, and we see 50% of cases in a three week period , and 99% in twelve , no system in the world can cope. Hard choices will need to be made in every country that can’t flatten that peak. No matter how good their health service is.
Nowhere is going to be left unaffected. Quarantine still has a place, but it’s purpose now is to flatten that peak off. Countries like Sweden that are naively allowing doctors to waltz back into hospitals and kids to schools straight from a ski trip to Italy with no quarantine? They are fucked. Absolutely fucked. Iran? Fucked. Anywhere with few ICU beds? Fucked. Places like s Korea and Singapore who are actively tracing contacts and restricting movement will fare much better.
Countries vary hugely in their ICU capability. ECMO (basically taking your blood out, oxygenating it and putting it back in)? 15 places in the whole of the Uk. None in Scotland.
I went looking for a comparison of ICU beds by country and found this. Draw an arrow on the y axis top to bottom and that’s how fucked each country is.

death rates are going to depend on two things:
1. Ability of country to flatten infection peak
2. Number of intensive care places.


http://archive.li/Fhsc8


I think you, and most other brits, might be missing the forest for the trees. Quite simply, this is not that severe. Or... well at least not for us.

Here's the thing. This is a pneumonia virus, and a weak one at that. Estimates are alarming but they don't take into account asymptomatic carriers, carriers with symptoms so low they never asked for testing, etc.

Truth is, the peak's probably coming even sooner than estimates say but, it's also not that bad. Even amongst the worst flu seasons of the last two decades, which specially last year for the last decade was a fucking shitshow, deaths were driven mostly by response time (and therefore how long the patient took to get to the hospital) and response to antivirals (hence why I am convinced the russians were right and last years' antiviral-inmune cunt of a flu was probably a coronavirus) the system's NEVER actually been strained to the point of "hard choices" being needed. The alarm system remains inactive.

Reason this matters to britain is because, well, a few decades ago spain still had concentration camps, it still was a dictatorship where people died of hunger. Our roads are still stuffed with the corpses of franco's detractors. Wifes are still looking for their husbands who were caught by the "greys" and just... dissapeares. My point is, our elders went through a TON of shit. I got tales of the civil war from my grampas and fuck it is horrifying, and that left a serious medical toll on them. I've known people that showed me photos of when they were on Petain's camps and they looked more like skeletons with a thin coat of skin painted on them than humans. No amount of medicine is fixing that guy's lungs, nor his immune system. Further, vaccinations didn't even start being properly rolled out until democracy was established, and in some areas they're still lagging behind, specially amongst older people.

And yet, despite the fact that by comparison you brits are incredibly healthy and got your vaccinations straight you think this will require more beds for you? If yes then you're wrong. If not then... how much worse can it get than all the other doomsday flus? If they haven't wrecked rural spain despite its lack of proper vaccines then this one really can't be that bad since lack of vaccines is its biggest strength. Who keeps claiming no system can take it but, well, no system NEEDS to. Here's the thing:

The number of ICU beds needed will only really be for the most severe cases. That's 10% being generous. And even then, you say there ain't that many places with proper ventilation but. Are they really needed? No. Not once a pandemic goes apeshit. At that point stuffing people into a hotel IS the right call. Just get the non-pneumonia cases that still need environmental protection and symptomatic care there and have a few professionals in hazmats do the care. Then clean it well once the pandemic is over. I know this tactic can work because, well, it's not the first time it's been done. It's not ideal but it's enough.

The only real harm this could cause is in terms of missing equipment and resources, but most resources needed for a flu like virus are cheap and easy to make, and if your government's worth shit it'll have already started making or stockpiling on it. And the equipment for the pneumonia cases is the last bit, which yet again they should've started stockpiling on already. But even in a worst case scenario, if no flu's wrecked through our elderly hard enough to get to that point, this doesn't seem better.

I guess reason spaniards are more chill is, well, most of our old folks lived through the war, our middle age generation grew in the dictatorship. They know what being unprepared really looks like. And I assure you, while your lack of ICUs is an issue that should be solved, if your healthcare system handles it right, it can take it. All y'all queenslanders need to put things into context sometimes and learn to relax. Your country is more robust than you think. Hell, you've been fucking us over since the catholic kings created the country, I dare say that takes way more balls than you think you have.
 

This prank is pretty old. At least a month old. It's likely only being reported on now because old people just started getting a big ol' eyefull of bbc. Get your fainting couches ready.

Only 4 people being tested now. 10 have tested negative. 0 confirmed cases.

 
I had SARS, I also probably had West Nile (rescued a lot of downed birds to give to wildlife rehabbers without gloves) I'm fairly healthy and resistant but the flu has kicked my butt and given me pneumonia (I have a medical condition that makes me vulnerable to UTI) twice so I'm not optimistic about Corona-chan passing me over. I called urgent care and they said a bunch of panicked folks are waiting to be seen, better to come in tomorrow morning.

Everyone is now out of isopropyl alcohol, hand sanitizer, TP, water and of course masks of any kind. I'm glad I did my panic buying along with everyone else here weeks ago.
I do my best impersonation of my avatar every time I remember that I did my panic-buying a full week before everyone around here started losing their shit, along with sounding alarms among friends and colleagues, because of this thread.

Of course, most of these fucking morons absolutely refuse to take it seriously. "Hurr it's just the flu!" And I'll explain how it's very much not just the flu and they'll kinda shrug and go "oh well." No, dumbass, not "oh well." Your lax precautions are putting me and every other non-retarded person around here at risk. Wash your fucking hands.
 
I'm just so confused why people are stockpiling and then continuing to go out as much as they did before. Part of the reason you get all that stuff is so you don't have to go out as much.

Ironically, a lot of the people in the most at risk groups will still need to go out frequently for essential medical appointments, even if they'd prefer to stay home and isolate themselves.
 
Holy shit that website took me right back to my Windows XP days...
Ha. I have a weakness for websites like that . I instinctively trust them, even when they're frothing about jewish space lizards. I think it's because they remind me of when almost all the internet was amateur enthuiast sites with very little corporate presence.
Logic brain says stay clear! But they have a lot of sway with my feelings.
 
Because childless Boomers in the US hold $4.3 Trillion in assets.

Covid 19 could be setting off the Great Wealth Transition about a decade early. If so and a bunch of people die - great - the US are buyers.

If the economy crashes and we still have all these old people around - shit - they still have all that money, we still need to take care of them, and we will have lost 25% of the US GDP to a plague from China.
So what you’re saying is that we should pray to CoronaChan to take out the Boomers?
Vote CoronaChan 2020 people. Boomer Holocaust Now.
 
You're probably right. This was published yesterday:

Emphasis mine. The average is 81? Explains a lot. In comparison, the Chinese numbers for ages 80+ give a 15% fatality rate; for South Korea it's 6% or so (but the sample isn't very large).

This jumped out at me.

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Shamelessly lifted from SA, who lifted it from reddit. An Italian surgeon's account of the situation at their hospital.

«In one of the non-stop e-mails that I receive from my hospital administration on a more than daily basis, there was a paragraph on "how to be responsible on social media", with some recommendations that we all can agree on. After thinking for a long time if and what to write about what's happening here, I felt that silence was not responsible. I will therefore try to convey to lay-people, those who are more distant from our reality, what we are experiencing in Bergamo during these Covid-19 pandemic days. I understand the need not to panic, but when the message of the danger of what is happening is not out, and I still see people ignoring the recommendations and people who gather together complaining that they cannot go to the gym or play soccer tournaments, I shiver. I also understand the economic damage and I am also worried about that. After this epidemic, it will be hard to start over.

Still, beside the fact that we are also devastating our national health system from an economic point of view, I want to point out that the public health damage that is going to invest the country is more important and I find it nothing short of "chilling" that new quarantine areas requested by the Region has not yet been established for the municipalities of Alzano Lombardo and Nembro (I would like to clarify that this is purely personal opinion). I myself looked with some amazement at the reorganization of the entire hospital in the previous week, when our current enemy was still in the shadows: the wards slowly "emptied", elective activities interrupted, intensive care unit freed to create as many beds as possible. Containers arriving in front of the emergency room to create diversified routes and avoid infections. All this rapid transformation brought in the hallways of the hospital an atmosphere of surreal silence and emptiness that we did not understand, waiting for a war that had yet to begin and that many (including me) were not so sure would never come with such ferocity (I open a parenthesis: all this was done in the shadows, and without publicity, while several newspapers had the courage to say that private health care was not doing anything).

I still remember my night shift a week ago spent without any rest, waiting for a call from the microbiology department. I was waiting for the results of a swab taken from the first suspect case in our hospital, thinking about what consequences it would have for us and the hospital. If I think about it, my agitation for one possible case seems almost ridiculous and unjustified, now that I have seen what is happening. Well, the situation is now nothing short of dramatic. No other words come to mind. The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. One after the other, these unfortunate people come to the emergency room. They have far from the complications of a flu. Let's stop saying it's a bad flu. In my two years working in Bergamo, I have learned that the people here do not come to the emergency room for no reason. They did well this time too. They followed all the recommendations given: a week or ten days at home with a fever without going out to prevent contagion, but now they can't take it anymore. They don't breathe enough, they need oxygen. Drug therapies for this virus are few.

The course mainly depends on our organism. We can only support it when it can't take it anymore. It is mainly hoped that our body will eradicate the virus on its own, let's face it. Antiviral therapies are experimental on this virus and we learn its behavior day after day. Staying at home until the symptoms worsen does not change the prognosis of the disease. Now, however, that need for beds in all its drama has arrived. One after another, the departments that had been emptied are filling up at an impressive rate. The display boards with the names of the sicks, of different colors depending on the department they belong to, are now all red and instead of the surgical procedure, there is the diagnosis, which is always the same: bilateral interstitial pneumonia. Now, tell me which flu virus causes such a rapid tragedy.

Because that's the difference (now I get a little technical): in classical flu, besides that it infects much less population over several months, cases are complicated less frequently: only when the virus has destroyed the protective barriers of our airways and as such it allows bacteria (which normally resident in the upper airways) to invade the bronchi and lungs, causing a more serious disease. Covid 19 causes a banal flu in many young people, but in many elderly people (and not only) a real SARS because it invades the alveoli of the lungs directly, and it infects them making them unable to perform their function. The resulting respiratory failure is often serious and after a few days of hospitalization, the simple oxygen that can be administered in a ward may not be enough. Sorry, but to me, as a doctor, it's not reassuring that the most serious are mainly elderly people with other pathologies. The elderly population is the most represented in our country and it is difficult to find someone who, above 65 years of age, does not take at least a pill for high blood pressure or diabetes.

I can also assure you that when you see young people who end up intubated in the ICU, pronated or worse, in ECMO (a machine for the worst cases, which extracts the blood, re-oxygenates it and returns it to the body, waiting for the lungs to hopefully heal), all this confidence for your young age goes away. And while there are still people on social media who boast of not being afraid by ignoring the recommendations, protesting that their normal lifestyle habits have "temporarily" halted, the epidemiological disaster is taking place. And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us.

The cases multiply, up to a rate of 15-20 hospitalizations a day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the emergency room is collapsing. Emergency provisions are issued: help is needed in the emergency room. A quick meeting to learn how the to use to emergency room EHR and a few minutes later I'm already downstairs, next to the warriors on the war front. The screen of the PC with the chief complaint is always the same: fever and respiratory difficulty, fever and cough, respiratory insufficiency etc ... Exams, radiology always with the same sentence: bilateral interstitial pneumonia. All needs to be hospitalized. Some already needs to be intubated, and goes to the ICU. For others, however, it is late. ICU is full, and when ICUs are full, more are created. Each ventilator is like gold: those in the operating rooms that have now suspended their non-urgent activity are used and the OR become a an ICU that did not exist before. I found it amazing, or at least I can speak for Humanitas Gavazzeni (where I work), how it was possible to put in place in such a short time a deployment and a reorganization of resources so finely designed to prepare for a disaster of this magnitude. And every reorganization of beds, wards, staff, work shifts and tasks is constantly reviewed day after day to try to give everything and even more. Those wards that previously looked like ghosts are now saturated, ready to try to give their best for the sick, but exhausted. The staff is exhausted. I saw fatigue on faces that didn't know what it was despite the already grueling workloads they had. I have seen people still stop beyond the times they used to stop already, for overtime that was now habitual. I saw solidarity from all of us, who never failed to go to our internist colleagues to ask "what can I do for you now?" or "leave that admission to me, i will take care of it." Doctors who move beds and transfer patients, who administer therapies instead of nurses. Nurses with tears in their eyes because we are unable to save everyone and the vital signs of several patients at the same time reveal an already marked destiny. There are no more shifts, schedules.

Social life is suspended for us. I have been separated for a few months, and I assure you that I have always done my best to constantly see my son even on the day after a night shift, without sleeping and postponing sleep until when I am without him, but for almost 2 weeks I have voluntarily not seen neither my son nor my family members for fear of infecting them and in turn infecting an elderly grandmother or relatives with other health problems. I'm happy with some photos of my son that I look at between tears and a few video calls. So you should be patient too, you can't go to the theater, museums or gym. Try to have mercy on that myriad of older people you could exterminate. It is not your fault, I know, but of those who put it in your head that you are exaggerating and even this testimony may seem just an exaggeration for those who are far from the epidemic, but please, listen to us, try to leave the house only to indispensable things. Do not go en masse to make stocks in supermarkets: it is the worst thing because you concentrate and the risk of contacts with infected people who do not know they are infected. You can go there without a rush. Maybe if you have a normal mask (even those that are used to do certain manual work), put it on. Don't look for ffp2 or ffp3. Those should serve us and we are beginning to struggle to find them. By now we have had to optimize their use only in certain circumstances, as the WHO recently recommended in view of their almost ubiquitous running low. Oh yes, thanks to the shortage of certain protection devices, many colleagues and I are certainly exposed despite all the other means of protection we have. Some of us have already become infected despite the protocols. Some infected colleagues also have infected relatives and some of their family members are already struggling between life and death. We are where your fears could make you stay away. Try to make sure you stay away.

Tell your family members who are elderly or with other illnesses to stay indoors. Bring him the groceries please. We have no alternative. It's our job. Indeed what I do these days is not really the job I'm used to, but I do it anyway and I will like it as long as it responds to the same principles: try to make some sick people feel better and heal, or even just alleviate the suffering and the pain to those who unfortunately cannot heal. I don't spend a lot of words about the people who define us heroes these days and who until yesterday were ready to insult and report us. Both will return to insult and report as soon as everything is over. People forget everything quickly. And we're not even heroes these days. It's our job. We risked something bad every day before: when we put our hands in a belly full of someone's blood we don't even know if they have HIV or hepatitis C; when we do it even though we know they have HIV or hepatitis C; when we stick ourselves during an operation on a patient with HIV and take the drugs that make us vomit all day long for a month. When we read with anguish the results of the blood tests after an accidental needlestick, hoping not to be infected. We simply earn our living with something that gives us emotions. It doesn't matter if they are beautiful or ugly, we just take them home. In the end we only try to make ourselves useful for everyone. Now try to do it too, though: with our actions we influence the life and death of a few dozen people. You with yours, many more. Please share and share the message. We need to spread the word to prevent what is happening here from happening all over Italy.»

Sources:



EDIT: updated sources with original FB post


 



It is! I was working near the Criminal Courts building and I really loved the neighborhood. I know a few bits of Shanghai dialect and met a few people who took me to places with chefs from Shanghai. Everyone went out of their way to teach me Mandarin, they were really sweet. For all the bitching I do about mainland Chinese the people living and working in Chinatown are great. I really miss it.

eta: One thing about Manhattan's Chinatown is that the streets are clean and I didn't see much spitting or hacking. My go to market had a pet cat to keep mice and rats away. I don't know if that's changed in the past five years though.

My Ma used to work right around there.I love that area. It's pretty laid back for Manhattan despite the huge crowds of people. Also as much as I hate to admit it the people in Manhattan are generally nicer then all the assholes here in Brooklyn regardless of country of origin.

Holy shit that website took me right back to my Windows XP days...
My mind will forever run Windows 98SE. Which probably explains the frequent BSODs.
 
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