Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

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Did you catch the press conference today where Brendan Murphy basically told her 'lol calm down'?

Quarantining the entire city.... seems either too early or too late for that.

I didn't. Good on him, though.

Christian Droste, head-honcho of the virology department of the Charité in Berlin, said that the impact of warm weather might not be as high as we hope. It's not going to disappear. He thinks there will be a huge outbreak in fall.

It's autumn here now and our seasonal flu season is around the corner. Perhaps what happens here in the next few months will provide clue about what's likely to happen in the northern hemisphere 6 months from now.
 
Excuse me?

I said nothing personal at all. I am sharing information that might happen to be relevant to the content of this thread. It is not about me at all, it is about the dangers (and the non-dangers) of this virus.

I posted about my situation, precisely because NOBODY gives a shit about me. I am an example, in a demographic place and time. Most people "get" this.

Here is a clue ... go rant elsewhere.

And no, having a second child did not "almost kill me" - you must have me confused with somebody else.

There are arguments for waiting to have kids .... for one, hopefully life mellows you out a bit and you have some self-control before raging your head off. (In your case, don't rush into it sweetie)

F.Y.I.

Back to the Corona virus, or not. Whatever..

while he sperged for the wrong reason, he wasn't necessarily wrong. just with the info of the last pages you made it a lot easier for someone to figure things out. that might not be a big deal right here and now given the context and situation, but it's always a good idea to keep things vague or outright obfuscate stuff (like change age/gender/number of children etc) when it doesn't change the message itself or would reveal too much about you. you never know who reads it or might in the future.

rate me austicic if you want, but people have been doxxed by less, and remember what the farms favorite pasttime is (besides lolcow watching)

EDIT:
No, but god damn. This thread moves like lightning and I'm trying to get through 7 pages, reading everyone's post before I gotta call it a night and then I run into that shit?? I was gonna give her a break but then I looked at her account and saw how many people had commented about what a terrible/thoughtless poster she is. This isn't her first rodeo.
if you still haven't learned to skim posts or outright ignore certain ones you really need to git gud. welcome to the internet.
 
Transcript from that Whatsapp call is now available - https://pastebin.com/RB1TZEF1

Transcript of two WhatsApp audio files from Lombardy, epicenter of the COVID19 outbreak

Doctor 1, male:

Guys, here's the status.

They closed down entire wards, reduced the number of beds in traditional wards,

They stopped all operations, closed all clinics so they could call in all GPs so they can come in and be COVID ward doctors.

They come in every day, exponentially.

They tripled ICU beds. They wanted to close our CICU, I don't know how many were closed.

So, even the STEMI heart attack network was closed. They're decentering everything.

Niguarda hospital is bursting, it's got 30 COVIDs in ICU.

All resuscitations are full, they're thinking about a triaging number…

of ICUs to distribute the beds and decide who to intubate, and who to let die.

They don't have COVID patients in Cardiology yet,

But COVID is very devious to identify,

Because you don't notice, you don't spot them. We had a cardiogenic shock in the CICU, for 5 days.

EPA scan, and yesterday - after I did it every day - the infectologist didn't say shit.

The radiologist - "stasis and pulmonary circulation congested"

I phoned the radiologist and said "listen, in my opinion he's got pneumonia" - and he had it.

Now they tested him, but he's surely a COVID patient, I'm willing to bet.

You can't recognize it, but most of all…

You have no idea - they don't say this on TV

of how many YOUNG people, I mean even 20 years old, need CPAP and have HORRIBLE pneumonias, with no comorbidities.

How many 70s-born have pneumonias. A TON. It's unimaginable.

Doctors aren't even - there aren't even any devices - even quarantined or screened with a test anymore.

They tell you "If you had a contact but with no symptoms, come at work. If you have symptoms, you get the decision to work or stay home."

It's TRAGIC. Now they're hiring all non-specialized med graduates from Policlinico for exempla - that's where my girlfriend is -

At Policclinico there's only one out of three or four wings that is not for COVID patients. 50 pneumonias expected A DAY. The situation is dramatic, and people don't know.

We absolutely need people to understand this.


Doctor Martina:

Hello everyone - ladies, gentlemen, I don't know, but Cate asked me to send her an audio message explaining what's happening.

My name is Martina, her cousin, cardiologist in intensive care, Milan,

So, the situation is very serious, in the sense that this circulating virus is extremely contagious.

It's true, some have no symptoms, some come through without too many problems, but it's also true that a lot of people develop what's called a bilateral interstitial pneumonia

that, fundamentally, needs assisted breathing. We don't have drugs, as antibiotics don't work against viruses,

We're giving them a cocktail of drugs used against viruses like AIDS, but experimentally - we don't know if they'll work or not.

The only thing you can do in these cases is intubate the patient, so as to make the machine breathe, rest the lungs, waiting for his immune system to defeat it.

It's true, most deaths are old with existing conditions but there's a lot of young people in the ICUs - our youngest is 38 with no comorbidities.

The real problem is that a lot of people need assisted breathing, and there are not enough ventilators for everybody.

Already yesterday I got a call - I'm in intensive care in cardiology - asking for one of my ventilators - we only have two now.

I gave it to them, and one patient that went out of intensive care the day before,

Normally in these cases you keep the ventilator near, because they can go into a crisis and need to be re-intubated - if she does, there's no ventilator there.

Fundamentally they told us starting from now we'll have to choose who to intubate, priority going to the young or no comorbitities,

At the Niguarda, the other big hospital, they don't intubate people older than 60, which is really, really young

So the situations is very serious, it's very contagious - 14 days of completely asymptomatic incubation, and can infect an incredible amount of people,

So the concept is the only way for it to not be a massacres is to have the least amount of infected, and if they are, for them to be on a long time scale.

That way, if I have 10,000 people who need ventilators infected all at the same time, we have 3,000 in Italy and 7,000 die.

If I can slow down the contagion, when the new people get sick, presumably the old will have freed the ventilator for them.

The only thing you can do are the things they're already saying: stay home, true, no cinemas, no exhibits, no walks, few malls as possible, closed school, no soccer in the evening, no dinners outside,

Avoid contact with other people as much as possible, wash your hands, soap works, so do alcohol solutions,

The virus resist on surfaces a bit for 30-40 minutes, the only way to clear surely is washing with bleach and leaving bleach on contact for 30 minutes,

Fundamentally, you guys in Rome are like we were in Milan 10 days ago, and really, in 10 days there was an incredible escalation,

Lombardy collapsing when it's the best in healthcare terms, so I don't dare think what would happen in less efficient regions.

Children; no grave cases, there are some positives, but like with all viruses (chickenpox, measles), if they get it it's much less aggressive than adults,

But they're crazy carriers, because the kid gets it with no symptoms, he goes to his grandparents, and fundamentally kills them. So avoid contact between them.

So, no panic but you can't underestimate this. If you can, stay home and don't meet anyone. If you have questions, I'm here, still going to the hospital and I will keep you up to date through Cate on the situation.
The thing about all these reported cases of 'young Italians' in ICU without co-morbidities... is the fact that Italians smoke like chimneys. That's got to be a factor, otherwise we'd be seeing similar trends in other hot zones.
 
Laurie Garrett wrote The Coming Plague in 1994 and its a well written book on pandemics and disease. UCSC interviewed her (link) and she had this to say about cornonavirus:
The novel coronavirus "has something in common with SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), MERs (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome), and the common cold, but with a lot of nuances that we haven’t seen before," said Garrett. “It is possible for people to seem completely cured and a couple of weeks later be dying of the disease.”
COVID-19, or coronavirus disease 2019, is comparatively less deadly than either SARS or MERS, Garrett said.
“It is not ultra-ultra-lethal, so we need a better understanding of what makes COVID-19 dangerous, putting people in intensive hospital care for two or three weeks. Roughly a quarter of all cases seem to go severe, and require long-term hospitalization, and yet the death rate is comparatively low.”
So she says it's bad but not as bad as SARS or MERS and about one-fourth of the people that get it will need intensive case but most will survive. The better hospitals in NYC will be able to cope, I think. But some others that are already strained might not. Handling this emergency requires strong and capable leadership and the two clowns in charge, Cuomo and De Blasio, hate each other but can't open their mouths without making an Orange Man Bad statement. I suspect they'd both be happy to have a bunch of dead New Yorkers if they could blame Trump for it. Not feeling very confident about this at all.
 
The thing about all these reported cases of 'young Italians' in ICU without co-morbidities... is the fact that Italians smoke like chimneys. That's got to be a factor, otherwise we'd be seeing similar trends in other hot zones.
You don't think it has anything to do with carb-loading-induced obesity?

side-note: i'm not sure it's even clear that italy has more young people infected than elsewhere. audio of two unidentified individuals (purportedly over whatsapp?? do Italians not have phones, or skype? what a strange choice for a professional convo) isn't a reputable source. it's clear that as whole, young people aren't as noticably sick after infection, but that might actually be a problem, by causing the virus to be harder to contain.
 
I just realized with all of yesterday's... significant emotional event, I forgot about spain news. And we got some funny ones. Actually my loved ones have been worrying about my sense of humor but really I think thry would've worried before. But I need to pass an audio to mp4 for maximum keks, so on the meantime, have the corona song.
 
Laurie Garrett wrote The Coming Plague in 1994 and its a well written book on pandemics and disease. UCSC interviewed her (link) and she had this to say about cornonavirus:

So she says it's bad but not as bad as SARS or MERS and about one-fourth of the people that get it will need intensive case but most will survive. The better hospitals in NYC will be able to cope, I think. But some others that are already strained might not. Handling this emergency requires strong and capable leadership and the two clowns in charge, Cuomo and De Blasio, hate each other but can't open their mouths without making an Orange Man Bad statement. I suspect they'd both be happy to have a bunch of dead New Yorkers if they could blame Trump for it. Not feeling very confident about this at all.
Saying that SARS and MERS have a lower mortality rate is very different from saying that SARS and MERS are "worse". The proof that this logic is shit is pretty obvious: COVID-19 has already infected and killed far more than SARS and MERS combined, like 4-fold.

Regardless, this isn't news, we've known forever now that the mortality rate is lower. The out-of-the-ordinary aspect of WuFlu was always the transmissibility (tho it would still be disingenuous to suggest that 2% or 3.5% is low--that's striking and comparable to the Spanish Flu). If everyone ends up contracting it, that's a lot of fucking people dead or in critical condition.
 
I saw someone post this site many, many pages back. I pinned the tab and have been keeping an eye on it. Just took a screenshot for anyone interested.

View attachment 1181128
also link
Probably also worth watching worldometer's tracker as well
Bno has been on top of this to date, the newsroom is a decent source for general info around this
 
Is there any information on the situation in China? I hear people arguing that they "won" against Corona and I can't doubt this hard enough.
All you really need to know is that for his triumphant return to Wuhan after beating the virus, Chairman Xi was wearing a mask miles away and watching through a tv screen while coofing if you look at where his hand is.

ESuYbYxU4AE6OPR
 
Saying that SARS and MERS have a lower mortality rate is very different from saying that SARS and MERS are "worse". The proof that this logic is shit is pretty obvious: COVID-19 has already infected and killed far more than SARS and MERS combined, like 4-fold.

Regardless, this isn't news, we've known forever now that the mortality rate is lower. The out-of-the-ordinary aspect of WuFlu was always the transmissibility (tho it would still be disingenuous to suggest that 2% or 3.5% is low--that's striking and comparable to the Spanish Flu). If everyone ends up contracting it, that's a lot of fucking people dead or in critical condition.
Garrett said COVID-19 "is comparatively less deadly than either SARS or MERS" or in other words coronavirus is not as lethal when you compare it against SARS or MERS. Whatever, our Mayor is going full CCP as he's getting inmates at Rikers ready to dig graves for over 50,000 expected corpses once contingency plans are put into effect.
 
Garrett said COVID-19 "is comparatively less deadly than either SARS or MERS" or in other words coronavirus is not as lethal when you compare it against SARS or MERS. Whatever, our Mayor is going full CCP as he's getting inmates at Rikers ready to dig graves for over 50,000 expected corpses once contingency plans are put into effect.
Exactly, which is very different from saying "it's bad but not as bad as SARS or MERS". Especially because you're talking about the capacity of hospitals to handle the load of patients in the near future, and the person you were citing was actually trying to point out that one in four cases going severe and requiring hospitalization for two to three weeks is serious and the reasons for it need to be researched more.

Quote from the article you just posted now:
"The plan was drawn up by the city’s Office of Chief Medical Examiner in October 2008 during the administration of then-Mayor Michael Bloomberg."

People in this thread are getting baited by politics so hard. This was way more interesting when it was bipartisan.
 
Exactly, which is very different from saying "it's bad but not as bad as SARS or MERS". Especially because you're talking about the capacity of hospitals to handle the load of patients in the near future, and the person you were citing was actually trying to point out that one in four cases going severe and requiring hospitalization for two to three weeks is serious and the reasons for it need to be researched more.

Quote from the article you just posted now:
"The plan was drawn up by the city’s Office of Chief Medical Examiner in October 2008 during the administration of then-Mayor Michael Bloomberg."

People in this thread are getting baited by politics so hard. This was way more interesting when it was bipartisan.
It's not as deadly as SARS or MERS and It's not as bad as SARS or MERS mean basically the same thing. 25% of patients needing intensive care and one in four cases going severe and requiring hospitalization for two to three weeks also mean pretty much the same. Is English not your first language?
 
Archive
A total of 40 coronavirus infections have been detected in Finland, says the National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL). Since yesterday's announcement of the department, 10 new cases have accumulated. Three new infections have been reported in both Helsinki and Uusimaa Hospital District and Central Finland Hospital District. In Kanta-Häme, Southwest Finland, North Karelia and Northern Savonia, one case has been reported each.
 
So, Italy's fatality/complication rates.

As of yesterday morning, the median age of patients is 65, 39.2% are over 70 and 37.4% between 51 and 70. 22% are 19-50 and 1.4% are under 19. So a good 3/4 of diagnosed cases are in the high risk category based on age alone. More than half of the dead were over 80 and two thirds had three or more preexisting conditions.

Italy also hasn't reported asymptomatic cases since the end of February. Compare that to South Korea where there were a pretty similar number of cases up until a day or two ago, but they test/report everyone and are younger overall. They have a fraction of the deaths and a fraction of the people in intensive care.

I'm not a fancy book-learning scientist, but it seems like what corona's doing to Italy looks more horrific than it actually is because their sample is an underestimate and biased towards those likely to suffer a worse outcome.


22% of Sars-CoV-2 swab positive patients are between 19 and 50 years old. This is confirmed by an analysis of the Higher Institute of Health, which makes it very clear that in all age groups, including young people, the rules of social distancing must be respected.

"In these days we are reporting many examples of violations of the recommendations, especially by young people - underlines Silvio Brusaferro, president of the Iss - These data confirm how all age groups contribute to the spread of the infection, and unfortunately the worst effects affect the frail elderly. Giving up a party or an aperitif with friends, not leaving the area where one lives and giving up returning home is a duty to protect one's own health and that of others, especially the most fragile".

From the analysis, out of 8342 positive cases on March 9 at 10 a.m., it emerges that 1.4% are under 19 years of age, 22.0% are in the 19-50 bracket, 37.4% are between 51 and 70 and 39.2% are over 70, for a median age of 65. 62.1% are men. There are 583 positive health workers.

The median time between the onset of symptoms and diagnosis is 3-4 days. 10% of cases are asymptomatic, 5% with few symptoms, 30% with mild symptoms, 31% are symptomatic, 6% have severe symptoms and 19% critical. 24% of the cases examined were hospitalized. The analysis confirms that 56.6% of the deceased are over 80 years old, and two thirds of them have 3 or more pre-existing chronic diseases.


Here are the new guidelines of the Ministry of Health. New criteria to align with other countries. Only clinically relevant cases reported.

In the coming days data on people affected by coronavirus in Italy will decrease or remain stable after days of rapid growth. However, the change will probably and unfortunately not be due to a decrease in virus circulation but to a new case calculation system. From the Ministry of Health have already informally anticipated to the Regions what then yesterday morning was partly explained by Giuseppe Ippolito of Spallanzani during a meeting with the foreign press of the Minister of Health, Roberto Speranza and that of Foreign Affairs, Luigi Di Maio. "In Italy - said Ippolito - we are working to communicate only the cases of new clinically relevant coronavirus", that is those that have important symptoms. In the other countries of the world, explained the infectivologist, it is done as follows: "Those who test positive for swabs made for any other reason, will go on a separate list but still extremely important for the definition of the epidemiological situation".

The ministry's idea is therefore to no longer communicate to the international bodies that deal with the epidemic all the asymptomatic cases, i.e. people who are positive for swabs but have no health problems. These infected people account for between 40 and 50% of all cases reported at this time. With rare exceptions, they are followed to their home and cannot leave until they have a positive swab because they could still be contagious. Of the 650 cases reported yesterday, 284 are in isolation at home because most of them have no symptoms. And even among the 45 cured there are certainly people who have never had any problems.

It will be necessary to see whether the counting method will be changed retrospectively, i.e. for the cases of these days or not. The second road has been used in China, but it has changed the counting upwards. However, even that country does not communicate the asymptomatic. The operation in Italy could cause controversy when a change in numbers is observed that does not correspond to a different trend of the epidemic. The intervention could have a reduced impact if the circular of the Ministry with the opinion of the Higher Council of Health that asks not to swab those who are asymptomatic is respected.

It has been reported for days that testing those who do not have fever or respiratory problems makes no sense, especially in the most affected areas. Yesterday also the Councillor for Welfare of Lombardy, the Region that has made far more tampons than all because it has more cases, Giulio Gallera repeated the concept. Just the day after a series of swabs on people without symptoms were made at the top of the regional task force for the case of Governor Fontana's coronavirus-infected collaborator.
 
It's not as deadly as SARS or MERS and It's not as bad as SARS or MERS mean basically the same thing. 25% of patients needing intensive care and one in four cases going severe and requiring hospitalization for two to three weeks also mean pretty much the same. Is English not your first language?
There are wider issues than just deadliness to those infected.

If there were a virus that killed all it infected immediately, it would clearly be 'less bad' than a more virulent but less deadly agent if it was so deadly it never spread beyond an initial victim. You can see how the same applies for SARS vs this disease.
 
Another case in Poland since yesterday, for a total of 18. No details yet. The government is tightening border controls and expanding them on the entire length of the border. These will include having people fill out forms for easier tracking, measuring temperatures and stopping anyone showing signs of illness. All high attendance public events are also cancelled. The Czechs are closing down schools as well, which I was hoping we would do as well, but nope. Still, some places will definitely suspend classes on their own.
 
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