Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

Status
Not open for further replies.

...which parts specifically?
 
Iran is under embargo. Unfortunately all these Western fat cat cocksuckers will have access to all kinds of experimental and expensive therapies they'd never even consider to use on our peasant asses.
Well word is out that we actually DO NOT have therapies except ventilators, IV lines, retrovirals and a handful of blood oxyginating machines.

That is what is concerning to me, anyway. I have read in more than one source, that there is little they can do for anybody once the infection takes off. The patient's immune system is either going to work against the virus or work with it, accidentally.
 

...which parts specifically?

Only "some"? I would have thought that the US would be focusing on mitigation like other Western nations are doing.
 
Napkin math time.
Population of the USA (+10mil illegals)
~= 340,000,000 ppl
Virus expected to infect about 60% of population over the course of the next year (x0.6)
=204,000,000 sick
One in four cases requires hospital care for roughly 3 weeks (x0.25)
=51,000,000 deathly ill

Number of licensed hospital beds in the USA (+ 100,000 to assume emergency measures)
~=1,000,000 beds
Adjust for time in bed per patient, complete with extremely optimistic idea that cases will be spread out evenly over the course of the year and med staff doesn't collapse (x52/3)
=17,333,333 people able to get care

Difference of 51m and 17.3m = 33,666,666 dead / 204,000,000 sick = 16.5% fatality rate.
Better hope someone figures out a cure. Barring that, get sick first, before the healthcare system comes crashing down. :tomgirl:
 

WALMART IS GIVING THEIR SLAVES PAID TIME OFF.

Given that this is Walmart and hell is freezing over I'd say this puts us at DEFCON 2.

We are one step away from the waffle house closing. Brace for impact.
 
First - keeping up with this thread is like a second job. Even with ignoring the known idiots and skim reading.

Second, no real reason for this , but I was wondering about the doubling period for recorded cases, and whether it matches up across countries.
Looking at the UK figures on wikipedia ( for want of a better source) , the doubling period seems to be about 3 days. Which is really scary.
Has anyone got any better figures, for every country? And maybe put them all in a spreadsheet, run the numbers , see if there are any anomolies. The correlate the results for cultural habits, social kissing, use of cash, propensity to lick shrines, hue of president etc. See if you can crack this thing.
cvchart - Copy.PNG
Thanks.
 
So here's my take on what's been happening with Italy, and it's caused me to reassess how impactful I believe coronavirus is going to be. Their death rate has been way out of whack with everywhere else, sitting at 5% of all cases even as day after day the totals grew exponentially. Everywhere else was much lower, so either there's some super deadly strain in Italy (unlikely, they'd pick that up real quick by sequencing it) something really wrong with the health care system that isn't able to treat complications (also unlikely, italy has developed health infrastucture that is right at its limits now but still isn't letting people choke to death in a car park. so the only thing that makes sense to explain a 5% death rate is there must be *LOADS* more people infected that they don't know about. Like a seriously big pool of asymptomatic or borderline showing it, and it must be almost the same number again, to get the figures down to 2.5% everywhere else is seeing. I think this thing in is loads more people that don't know it themselves and if countries don't get a handle on testing and encouraging isolation (it's worked REALLY WELL in china.. ok it's authoritarian as fuck but zonal isolation and travel bans stop it in its tracks) they will be overwhelmed like Italy. They're in full lock down now. :O
 
So far, my home state of Alabama hasn't officially been touched by the Wu Flu.

Today I had a routine check-up.

Several years ago I didn't know I had pneumonia for months, and kept working until I fell out on a lunch break. Since then, colds have been extra rough recovering from. And I cought the nasty head-cold bug a couple weeks ago which I haven't been able to shake yet, so I'm still coughing like a plague-bearer.

The small clinic I went to wasn't busy at all (yet everyone in town seems to have the nasty coughing crud), and the first thing they did was tickle-my nosehole for some goods left by Corona-chan.

Thankfull the pneumonia isn't back, and they didn't drag me off to quarantine like an outbreak monkey.

From what I've heard locally though, the general suspicion is that the Wu Flu has been here already for a while, as the county is rural but crossed by several interstates, and is home to a large (for Alabama) asian population. But people have been staying home instead of running to the after-hours or ER for the sniffles & crud.

Nobody wants to be the first, and in these parts social distancing comes natural.
 
Last edited:
As per the press conference going on right now teleconferencing with a doctor is now covered under Medicaid/Medicare. It's 2020, should have been a thing years ago.

Astonishing. This should have become the norm 20 years ago.

Our politicians have acknowledged that full blown quarantine may be necessary here at some point (although they don't use that term - "social distancing" is the current buzz phrase), but good luck trying to implement it in our large cities.

The only way you could really do it in cities like Sydney is to cripple people's capacity to travel - so shutting down all public and commercial transport but also shutting down fuel sales so that people could only get as far as one tank of fuel would take them (which is still a fair distance with many cars).

Everywhere is well past the point of full blown quarantine serving any purpose. Chances are it is well past the saturation point. You’ve already come in contact with it. unless you’ve been isolated from humanity since October. It is well past critical mass on every inhabited continent, and likely has been since the day we first heard of it. Anyplace with no reported cases, simply hasn’t discovered them yet.


Well that should effectively half the CDC’s “non Coronavirus” related communicable and social disease workload for the year.
 
Napkin math time.
Population of the USA (+10mil illegals)
~= 340,000,000 ppl
Virus expected to infect about 60% of population over the course of the next year (x0.6)
=204,000,000 sick
One in four cases requires hospital care for roughly 3 weeks (x0.25)
=51,000,000 deathly ill

Number of licensed hospital beds in the USA (+ 100,000 to assume emergency measures)
~=1,000,000 beds
Adjust for time in bed per patient, complete with extremely optimistic idea that cases will be spread out evenly over the course of the year and med staff doesn't collapse (x52/3)
=17,333,333 people able to get care

Difference of 51m and 17.3m = 33,666,666 dead / 204,000,000 sick = 16.5% fatality rate.
Better hope someone figures out a cure. Barring that, get sick first, before the healthcare system comes crashing down. :tomgirl:

alright you autistic screechers listen
the real threat here isn't people dying in the streets, it's the health system being more overloaded than it already is and the long-term economic impacts of supply chain breakdown, coupled with an already artificially-propped up economic system.
look at italy right now:
So here's my take on what's been happening with Italy, and it's caused me to reassess how impactful I believe coronavirus is going to be. Their death rate has been way out of whack with everywhere else, sitting at 5% of all cases even as day after day the totals grew exponentially. Everywhere else was much lower, so either there's some super deadly strain in Italy (unlikely, they'd pick that up real quick by sequencing it) something really wrong with the health care system that isn't able to treat complications (also unlikely, italy has developed health infrastucture that is right at its limits now but still isn't letting people choke to death in a car park. so the only thing that makes sense to explain a 5% death rate is there must be *LOADS* more people infected that they don't know about. Like a seriously big pool of asymptomatic or borderline showing it, and it must be almost the same number again, to get the figures down to 2.5% everywhere else is seeing. I think this thing in is loads more people that don't know it themselves and if countries don't get a handle on testing and encouraging isolation (it's worked REALLY WELL in china.. ok it's authoritarian as fuck but zonal isolation and travel bans stop it in its tracks) they will be overwhelmed like Italy. They're in full lock down now. :O
complete standstill with overloaded hospitals. this illness hits the elderly and those with respiratory issues the hardest so these will be the ones actually filling the hospital beds (even in italy presumably, which would also explain the higher fatality rate). problem is that the US healthcare system is absolute fucking shit if you're not on a decent insurance policy. combine that with economic tough times and now you've got a serious long-term problem that will take awhile to recover from, societally speaking.
americans are generally mentally ill (stupid, fat, etc) and/or can't afford healthcare so there will be people refusing to go to the doctor and either staying at home or infecting others despite "knowing better" (they don't actually know better).
on top of that, closing down various sectors of society (schools/public events/work) will cause again economic slowdown requiring a stimulus immediately. who the fuck knows how this will actually go in congress and who will get this round of stimulus. next week, imagine bernanke's helicopter again but this time it's mnuchin, and the helicopter is on fire as it lands at the white house.
so the troubles here will be general unrest (both economic and perhaps a little bit social as well) and heartbreak as opposed to autistic coof zombie apocalypse.
however if somehow trump manages to catch the virus, then yeah probably panic because the market will abso-fucking-lutely tank.
 
I suggest everyone keep replies short in this thread because holy fuck I don't feel like reading pages of autism journals.

Anyways, stock market is on the verge of getting fucked like a red headed stepchild on pornhub. Because let's be real, White House is delaying that national emergency response to prevent accelerated freefall.
 
Resident Indian here. We have had 11 more cases since the last time I wrote on this thread. What makes these 11 cases special is the fact they occurred in Bangalore. For those who don't know, Bangalore is the Silicon Valley of India(this is also the place the bangalore torpedo was developed btw). Lot of tech companies: microsoft, google, wipro, infosys, oracle, TCS, etc are here. Power leveling here but I live in Bangalore. Its like Toyko/NYC in that people rely on public transportation like metro, buses and ubers since traffic is atrocious. Also Bangalore gets flights daily from London, Milan, Paris, Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Dubai, Moscow and Africa. I expect cases to flare up in 7 to 10 days give or take. Personally if the number of cases rise to 150, I'll take extended leave and move to the countryside. Godspeed Italian kiwis and Godspeed Europe.

Further Reading:

 
Resident Indian here. We have had 11 more cases since the last time I wrote on this thread. What makes these 11 cases special is the fact they occurred in Bangalore. For those who don't know, Bangalore is the Silicon Valley of India(this is also the place the bangalore torpedo was developed btw). Lot of tech companies: microsoft, google, wipro, infosys, oracle, TCS, etc are here. Power leveling here but I live in Bangalore. Its like Toyko/NYC in that people rely on public transportation like metro, buses and ubers since traffic is atrocious. Also Bangalore gets flights daily from London, Milan, Paris, Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Dubai, Moscow and Africa. I expect cases to flare up in 7 to 10 days give or take. Personally if the number of cases rise to 150, I'll take extended leave and move to the countryside. Godspeed Italian kiwis and Godspeed Europe.

Further Reading:

i'm actually flabbergasted that india hasn't exploded in cases yet considering population density. i guess we'll see if the "heat kills the virus" statement carries water here.
 
i'm actually flabbergasted that india hasn't exploded in cases yet considering population density. i guess we'll see if the "heat kills the virus" statement carries water here.
Probably the lack of testing. As the Indian govt. makes more testing sites, numbers will skyrocket. I love India but there's no way we dont have a pandemic
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back