Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

[mr.moon1488]

Yes, and that wasn't chicken.

 

[Ivan Shatov]

Aren‘t the Chinese notorious chain smokers? At least the ones who lived in my old apartment complex were. Good thing I moved out of there.

They are, and I suspect we will learn air quality (moreso than individual health decisions) is a major factor in lethality.

Following the science is a little hard, I see papers and don't always know if they've actually been reviewed. It's not always worth it to even skim the abstract, feels like researchers are trying to make a name for themselves.

But maps of local industry with NAICS codes relative to outbreaks speaks volumes. This virus kills workforces.

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

Good. Guess the minister wasn't kidding about being able to do 2000 tests per day. That would explain the increase and I guess the low number of serious cases too: we're starting to catch many while they're still mild. Not sure how we compare to other places in terms of testing people though, can't find daily breakdowns for most countries.

UK figures (I know they've already been covered, but still)

37,746 have been tested (+4975)

36,606 negative

1140 positive (+342)

Bare in mind, unlike the US who's CDC demanded only official cases went through them initially every last NHS hospital has a lab for testing a wide range of diseases and these places work fast.

Blood testing, for example, is done within the hour on a regular basis. Suspected Covid-19 cases are given top priority due to the infection rate and the NHS was initially designed to create and maintain a body of fighting men in the event of war and these legacy systems now remain and extend to detecting and combating plagues and infectious diseases.

I suspect Poland is still reliant on an older, Soviet based model which while good (if funded) has more centralisation. From what I remember about the quirk of the Polish System (as a secondary, smaller version exists in the UK) Poles tend to go straight to professionals instead of using GPs as gatekeepers as we do in the main NHS. So testing may remain spotty,

 

[Feline Supremacist]

I suspect we are nearing the end of the open societies movement, which is the vehicle for influencing public opinion related to globalism. Aside from coronavirus, there's an increased awareness of the threat associated with external players controlling western supply chains. The faster China can restore exports and a sense of normality to the rest of the world, the less urgent this awareness will seem. But I get the feeling China is hesitant to do so and wonder what has changed.

China will try to leverage it to their advantage and I suspect that was one reason they lobbied so hard/made it cheap and irresistible to get manufacturing contracts there. The tide has changed though and I suspect he globalism's attractiveness has worn off with the general public. The feckless "Those jobs aren't coming back" comment is going to bite everyone in the ass. Everyone now knows we don't even manufacture penicillin, let alone scores of other essential drugs, in the USA, as well as medical equipment and PPE.

Trump can demand manufacturing restart in the US and support for loans, aid and other financial incentives and support would be high given the chinks already threatened to cut us off. It would put people back to work and be fantastic for the economy. The CCP is seriously underestimating the fury over their threats and in the long run we'll be better off without them. I could go into more detail and write paragraphs over this but think about it: China is cancelled.

 

[Your Weird Fetish]

I still want to know where the cock-up is in the CDC's handling of the test kits.

I'm also kind of wavering on the idea where we need to put soo much emphasis on testing. I'm thinking it's kind of irrelevant. If we implemented the social distancing and hygiene to be expected when someone near us has wuflu to all the time then it wouldn't really matter. If people had a stock of at least 2 weeks of food and a shelf of extra toiletries as a normal function we wouldn't see all this panicking.

I mean, let's think about the South Korean drive thru testing. Let's say you test positive, wonderful, now what? How long do you quarantine? What about your family and neighbors? Is everyone within two degrees of social distance from you supposed to be on lockdown for a month? The only real use I see for mass testing is when it comes to getting government assistance FOR going into lockdown. I'm just really getting into thinking that the obsession with testing is a bit misplaced.

It provides the illusion of control and if you can't get tested an obvious scapegoat to justify your internal narrative instead of having to accept "sometimes plagues happen and there's not all that much I can do about it once they have".

 

[ducktales4gameboy]

Amusing grapevine anecdote for the day: A friend who checks at Safeway is reporting that the biggest mover aside from the obvious rice/tp/sanitizer is people clearing out the entirety of the cheese case since ‘it’s not going to be available in a month’.

This particular safeway, being in northern California, has two very large dairies within 20 miles.

 

[MadStan]

Serpentza addressed day to day conditions in China in yesterday's ADVChina livestream.

He said things are starting to get back to normal, people are living their day to day lives again. This speaks to the relative sense of health and safety of the people living there.

Under normal conditions, in China, it takes about two weeks to load a high capacity cargo ship. It takes about a month for it to get where it's going, then it takes 2 - 4 weeks to fully unload it and get the contents to distribution centers. There are exceptions, but this is a general productivity measure that makes it's way into various models.

The question for us China watchers is, when do exports start up again? The virus moves pretty quickly, but not as quickly as markets. Something people fail to appreciate is how much information is collected and analyzed by Wall Street, especially when it comes to risk associated with supply chains. The story of the true impact on China's population will be told by M&A news, industry reports and market analysis.

Maersk is a buyer. Overall capacity has surpassed need, this means the cost of transporting goods overseas has gone down. Leaders in the shipping industry are buying up their competitors to reduce capacity and adjust to the market. Mersck had previously stated exports from China are down by 50%, 80% of their exports are overseas. Mergers are where the rubber meets the road. This mean shipping companies are betting exports don't come back the way they were - either China's planning to start using rail or they intend to stop servicing some markets.

There's a number of industry reports coming out with projections about the overall shipping market. Here's one. Here's another. You have to pay to read the full reports, and it's clear they are using pre-wuflu data. The key information usually comes from the table of contents, which gives you some hints about the criteria that matters to analysts.

The Five Forces analysis is usually what matters most in understanding financial impact during recovery. You want to understand competition for goods and services, potential for new players to pop up, consumer lock-in through supply chain economics, consumer leverage and potential to move supply chains to another State.

To answer the question about when supply chains are coming back, we can monitor C02 levels visually to understand where industry is coming back and where it's not. We can verify it through reports from Maersk telling us about container capacity and volumes coming out of China. We can watch for business news about shipping over rail, which should be available in English.

To answer longer term questions about China's industry, we can watch for news about other countries increasing production on products that formerly came from China, news about shortages of key goods in the US and Europe, and industry news about businesses moving out of China.

I suspect we are nearing the end of the open societies movement, which is the vehicle for influencing public opinion related to globalism. Aside from coronavirus, there's an increased awareness of the threat associated with external players controlling western supply chains. The faster China can restore exports and a sense of normality to the rest of the world, the less urgent this awareness will seem. But I get the feeling China is hesitant to do so and wonder what has changed.

The supply shock has trickled down and now we have a demand shock. Chinas factories will continue to slow as demand falls off. Demand in the 4 largest economies: USA, EU, Japan and China accounting for 80% of global trade will be down substantially.

Effects will be here for months.

 

[Vault Boy]

With all the talks of the virus causing a global recession, what are the odds of that sinking Trump's reelection?

Up until this point, I thought he had a bulletproof chance given the DNC's sorry state, but it seems the world's going insane lately.

 

[Reverend]

To see if you live in an area full of idiot panic buyers or true sane folks you need to check 3 things at the store and if they are out of stock or not

1. Salt
2. Flour
3. Rice

If you see these 3 things utterly out you are reasonably assured that people around you are at least someone cognizant of how to make food, prepare leftover, and to survive. these are areas that would be good to note for later when the zombies come and you will probably need to be armed in order to 'liberate' goods.

If those 3 are heavily stocked still you will be assured your idiot neighbors will be banging on your door asking how to make bread, a cup full of rice to feed their family, or be desperate enough to come for you.

I'm looking forward to a giant bake off here in April with some sourdough culture, chocolate chip cookies, and spaghetti.

Also hording water is beyond dumb. It comes from the tap, not good enough for you? Boil it.

Shit I need to get some propane refills here as I'm doing a BBQ here soon. I hope that isn't all sold out too.

In further related CoronaChan News, God Emperor Orangello was tested recently and the US has passed the big 2k!

The House of Representatives passed a coronavirus aid package early Saturday that could includes free testing, paid emergency leave and other resources intended to help stem the crisis and stabilize financial markets, hours after President Donald Trump declared the outbreak a national emergency.

The president announced later in the day that he had been tested for coronavirus, with results coming in a few days. Vice President Mike Pence also said new travel restrictions would be put in place with regard to the U.K. and Ireland.


The United States as of Friday afternoon had surpassed 2,000 confirmed cases of the coronavirus, and the death toll climbed to 51, with 25 of the deaths associated with the Life Care Center in Kirkland, Washington

Or component products that do the same job cheaper but require assembly.

Isopropyl alcohol, gels and shop rags are still cheap on eBay, drug store and motor parts websites.

90%+ alcohol is sold out nearly everywhere, same with Hydrogen Peroixide. Aloe Vera gel is gone from online stores, I even went to a hippy granola crunchy whole foody place and they were empty of that stuff.

Speaking of shop rags this stuff I swear by as it cleans god awful everything on your hands after working on your car and smells not too shabby:

Go-Jo Supro Max Hand Cleaner

Shop for Go-Jo Supro Max Hand Cleaner with confidence at AutoZone.com. Parts are just part of what we do. Get yours online today and pick up in store.

www.autozone.com

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

The supply shock has trickled down and now we have a demand shock. Chinas factories will continue to slow as demand falls off. Demand in the 4 largest economies: USA, EU, Japan and China accounting for 80% of global trade will be down substantially.

Effects will be here for months.

Never mind the long term effects. There's already a cabal of influential Tory MPs who've rapidly swapped from being Global Free Traders to Economic Nationalists meaning a number of industries will probably return to the UK in the next few years. The US will likely follow suit too.

 

[Curious Addie]

Also hording water is beyond dumb. It comes from the tap, not good enough for you? Boil it

ChinAIDS isn't going to make the water stop coming out of the faucet but sometimes shit happens and water is the first thing you will run out of. Everybody should be hoarding water as a general practice.

 

[IAmNotAlpharius]

The one picture where there is literally cases of baby wipes and sanitary wet napkins right next to the TP is a sign that these Panic Buyers are so laser like focused they can't see a complimentary product RIGHT NEXT TO THEM.

What does it matter if it says "baby wipe" it'll still wipe your ass as well as your crotchfruits.

It can’t be flushed but it’s just as good in a pinch. I wonder if they will start clearing those out too soon.

 

[StarkRavingMad]

With all the talks of the virus causing a global recession, what are the odds of that sinking Trump's reelection?

Up until this point, I thought he had a bulletproof chance given the DNC's sorry state, but it seems the world's going insane lately.

Well, historically, incumbent Presidents tend to do well for their reelections in a time of crisis. I certainly believe that the hurricane (I forget the name at the top of my head at the moment) that happened the week before the 2012 Election really helped Obama, especially when he had such a weak opponent like Romney. Obama's response to the hurricane was well-received, too. I think time will tell for certain on whether the majority of people think that Trump's handling of this has been effective.

Look at Trump's opponents at the moment: Biden and Bernie. Neither of them have said anything of value in terms of how they would be combatting this if they were POTUS right now. There have been zero Democrats altogether that have offered any sort of alternative plan as they've been bitching about Trump, too. There was literally a hearing in Congress a few days ago, and a group of House Democrats spent their time on calling Americans racist for calling COVID-19 what it is: a Chinese virus, because it originated in China. That is literally all they've had to offer when it comes to debating this.

 

[AnitaSarsleezian]

Trump could have literally developed the cure for the virus in his free time by himself and the news media would crucify him for not coming out with it soon enough. The poor fuck can't win.

More accurate would probably be that if Trump developed a cure for Coronavirus, CNN would be the first to blast all over that Trump is putting doctors out of work.

Can't blame the guy for looking tired and run down. It's one thing to do your job normally while half the population screams about what a fuck up you are and they want your head. It's another to be trying to make the right decisions to save and protect your citizens while the same half of the population screams what a fuck up you are and they want your head. I'd be tired of that shit, too.

 

[spiritofamermaid]

Family in Collierville (Memphis, TN suburb) went food shopping yesterday. All milk was gone (including soy) as well as orange juice. Same with pet food.

The entire paper aisle was cleared out as well, along with meats.

Everything else was fine.

Sorry for lack of pictures, family didn't take any and I didn't know of the trip until later.

Edit: Forgot to add that this was in their local Kroger.

 

[deeplyhigh]

The one picture where there is literally cases of baby wipes and sanitary wet napkins right next to the TP is a sign that these Panic Buyers are so laser like focused they can't see a complimentary product RIGHT NEXT TO THEM.

What does it matter if it says "baby wipe" it'll still wipe your ass as well as your crotchfruits.

It took about a week here, but baby wipes have been depleted too. Same with first aid supplies, most vitamins, bread, soup, iso alcohol, bleach. Interestingly though, people don’t appear to realize that Wet Wipes are also antibacterial and those were plentiful while disinfectant wipes were gone.

 

[Negilum]

With all the talks of the virus causing a global recession, what are the odds of that sinking Trump's reelection?

Up until this point, I thought he had a bulletproof chance given the DNC's sorry state, but it seems the world's going insane lately.

Prior to the Corona Virus I was leaning towards a Trump victory too. For all his faults, he could always point to the economy as proof of his competence.

Most Americans are completely economically illiterate, regardless of how well Trump handles the situation, the economy will enter a recession and the blame will be put on Trump.

Unless Biden dies of the virus, which might end up being a serious possibility, I'm currently leaning towards Biden winning.

Well, historically, incumbent Presidents tend to do well for their reelections in a time of crisis. I certainly believe that the hurricane (I forget the name at the top of my head at the moment) that happened the week before the 2012 Election really helped Obama, especially when he had such a weak opponent like Romney. Obama's response to the hurricane was well-received, too. I think time will tell for certain on whether Trump's handling of this has been effective.

Look at Trump's opponents at the moment: Biden and Bernie. Neither of them have said anything of value in terms of how they would be combatting this if they were POTUS right now. There have been zero Democrats altogether that have offered any sort of alternative plan as they've been bitching about Trump, too. There was literally a hearing in Congress a few days ago, and a group of House Democrats spent their time on calling Americans racist for calling COVID-19 what it is: a Chinese virus, because it originated in China.

I would agree with you if Trump stayed off of twitter. Despite his response to the virus being well measured, his side-line commentary on twitter comes off as completely unhinged.

This is more than a crisis too, this is economically devastating

 

[Ivan Shatov]

China will try to leverage it to their advantage and I suspect that was one reason they lobbied so hard/made it cheap and irresistible to get manufacturing contracts there. The tide has changed though and I suspect he globalism's attractiveness has worn off with the general public. The feckless "Those jobs aren't coming back" comment is going to bite everyone in the ass. Everyone now knows we don't even manufacture penicillin, let alone scores of other essential drugs, in the USA, as well as medical equipment and PPE.

Trump can demand manufacturing restart in the US and support for loans, aid and other financial incentives and support would be high given the chinks already threatened to cut us off. It would put people back to work and be fantastic for the economy. The CCP is seriously underestimating the fury over their threats and in the long run we'll be better off without them. I could go into more detail and write paragraphs over this but think about it: China is cancelled.

I wouldn't look at the situation in terms of instant reactions. Trump would love to bring jobs back to the US, the forces don't exist to make that happen. It will require a shift in rhetoric, happy to report China is putting their thumb on the wrong scales.

The Open Society movement took a big blow last year when Soros called China an existential threat. He started some conversations that cost people a lot of credibility.

If this interests you, this video contains a good discussion about how the future of US policy is shaped and the realities of how China is perceived in political circles.

Worth watching reports from the Hudson Institute. Robert Spaulding is getting attention from the right people, he tried to start a think tank a couple years ago and shut down by some institutions that should not be pro-China. He's been writing books about how the US is building their military through capital investment, it's turning into a whistleblower situation.

Another source to pay attention to is the Lawfare blog. They have some good coverage of the 2025 plan, Belt and Road, and China's attempts to position themselves for global leadership. More importantly, you are going to read some US citizens saying some very anti-US things. It's instructive.

The best we can hope for in the next 5 - 10 years is a new classification of industry that prevents some things from being purchased overseas - AI, fintech, and nanotech are the chief targets. The problem we have right now is how quickly China can reverse engineer anything to undercut US pricing. Combatting this requires international cooperation and support from academic institutions, it's a race to put those in place. Pray for Pompeo, he's our nation's best hope.

 

[King Daddy Telomerase]

I struggle to see how this doesn't help Trump in the end. People are complaining now and there will always be the ~25% that Orange Man Bad! Wait until people get their sportsball back and can be social like they were once again. There should be a huge wave of unity and thankfulness for what we have. And it helps that Trump didn't have a notable screw up moment in this. It would have been better for Dems if this happened 4-6 months later.

 

[Dysnomia]

I keep imagining the hoarders' homes being filled to the brim with toilet paper and Progresso soup cans.

It's unlikely that they'd have a lot of room to store six or more twelve-packs of Charmin.

I also imagine this will be heard on PBS soon: "Next on 'This Old House' - how to craft a tasteful love seat from your unused rolls of Angel Soft, and how to re-purpose those cans of lima beans that you will never eat."

They'll have more fodder for those hoarding reality shows.

Edit:
When I walked into my local Walmart to pick up some ground sirloin for taco bites at around 3 AM, the ground beef and seafood aisles had been emptied.
However, when I got to my local butcher's, they were stocked up.

I missed my chance to go to Walmart last week. Now I wouldn't go there if you paid me.

It's like a social disease now. People are buying mass quantities of toilet paper because everyone else is. Walgreens doesn't get a delivery until Wednesday. So congradulations hoarders, you have decimated the only local supply of toilet paper because you think the coronavirus is irl Captain Trips and 99% of humanity is going to die.

Bring out your dead.

They're closing everything because having a new virus that hasn't really been documented before, and tracking it's spread and containment is a once in a lifetime research opportunity.

Everyone is taking part in one big experiment. Because the info will be used with stuff down the road like Space Ebola.

If we blame it on the Martians is that racist or spacist?

BBC Radio reporting that the United States is to extend its travel ban to the United Kingdom and Ireland.

Exclusive: U.S. to add Britain, Ireland to European travel ban - airline, U.S. officials

The U.S. government is expected to announce on Saturday that it is expanding its...

uk.reuters.com

Good. Those places never should have been excluded to begin with.

I'm assuming youre American because everything you said reads American.
This.. is why I am somewhat skeptical of the recent drama over (lack of) testing and feel it is a distraction.
So, people get tested. Then what? All the people with confirmed coronavirus that are otherwise fine are going to go to the ER and take up everybody's time. They're not going to get let in, and then the complaint is "I have coronavirus and the government won't help me! They're leaving me to die!"
I don't envy the government. Which is better? Don't test people, and have people complain they can't get tested? Or test them and have them complain their government is abandoning them to die while they panic in a hospital, shooting up and recieving fast food deliveries?
Would fewer people be coming in if they were all tested because they were confirmed not to have it? Or would it be worse because almost everyone confirmed would go, which is actually a ton of people?
Would people be more likely to self quarantine if they were tested? Maybe, but it might be too late anyway. And we all know some people would get tested and spread it on purpose. We've already seen that happen.

Americans are uniquely unprepared for this crisis in a lot of ways. Everyone keeps talking about how Italy is different because of all the old people. What about all the obese people? People with chronic conditions? What about all the homeless people and the junkies that might go into withdrawal? Not to mention all the boomers who don't take this seriously in the first place. Too many people depend on the government to come in and rescue them. They FREAK OUT when it doesn't happen. Because of entitlement.
They are going to be livid when triage happens and someone young gets care over the 600lb landwhale and her husband still trying to grift opiates while they're both hacking their lungs out over everyone. These people already think it's a human rights violation that the government only gives them enough money for junk food and iphones, instead of a new TV and a sports car every year.

It's going to be like Katrina, except everywhere, at roughly the same time. The only advantage the US has over Italy is large geographical spread.
The scene you described is pretty much what I said to my boyfriend would be happening last night. He disagreed and I said give it one week.
I'm not knocking you btw, I know you went for a reason. What freaks me out are all the people you encountered.

Yes. I am American. I did not realise I was oozing so much 'Murrica. I guess it's like incontinence or something.

I wonder if mass testing would be helpful in the future in terms of infection patterns and demographics. Although testing everyone with a runny nose or a frog in their throat will just bolster more mass hysteria.

I heard on TV that there will be drive up testing available. I think that's when we will see the blue checkmarks screeching that disabled black trans POCs of color ect... are the real victims of coronavirus. I can't wait.

As for the drug addicts, there is an area in Philly called Kensington that is the epicenter of the city's opioid crisis. There are fentanyl zombies everywhere down there. These people feel no pain and don't even know where they are most of the time. If they have symptoms will they even be able to shuffle down to a hospital? Their bad health and disgusting lack of hygiene is going to put them at risk. We have a serious homeless problem here too. And San Francisco is way way worse in that department. Somebody really should be looking out for this. No one wants Frankie Fentanyl and Melanie Meth coming up to them and coughing in their faces while begging for change.

I really wish people would calm down and not flood the ER. But I don't think that can be stemmed easily right now because the ER can't turn you away if they don't think you are critical. But you will be waiting a long time. I don't know how they could drill it into people's heads that they don't have to go to the hospital because they feel a little ill. No amount of doctors on TV and internet articles seems to be doing it. I think it has to run it's course. Hopefully once there is a vaccine the mania will not repeat itself this way again.

Philly gonna Philly. But I wasn't expecting the ER to be quite that bizarre. But I guess a crisis brought out all the weirdos at once. The deathfat fast food delivery though, it took all my strength not to laugh out loud.