Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

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remiem said:
Sending people back to work/school just because there aren't recorded cases or those cases are low in that area isn't advised. Wtf. There was an asymptomatic woman who attended two wakes in Newfoundland. Now we have 99 cases directly and indirectly tied to her, that they've found. Making the province have the second highest per capita infection rate as the population is so small. It takes only a single person with Corona to do serious damage.

Two days ago in Newfoundland it was 0 hospitalizations. Now it's 7 in hospital, 2 in ICU. Ending restrictions will make it that much worse. Low case numbers in an area mean nothing when it can move that quickly.

You can't compare a disease to terrorist activity, either. Pearl harbour and 9/11 could be cleaned up and not keep immediately infecting people. Corona cannot as there's no vaccine or treatment currently. The risk dosen't go away once the worst is over because the worst is still ongoing.
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Shutting down entire countries for months on end because of some coofing isnt advisable either. Aside from totally derailing quality of life, The damage from doing so will wind up making 2008 look like childs play if its allowed to go for too long.

Human beings are not meant to sit inside all day. As the weather gets nicer, there is going to be increased pressure to lift restrictions, and if the government doesnt do it, sooner or later people will blatantly ignore the orders. Especially as bills come due and paychecks are not filled. Even this $1200 per adult stimulus isnt going to hit in time for april's bills. What happens at the end of april, when funds have totally run dry, people need food, may's bills are coming up, and congress is tying itself in knots trying to get another stimulus bill passed?

Being a NEET is not the status quo for most people, and that friction is going to grow the longer we are shut down, and unless governments can prove most people are still vulnerable, people are not going to listen, and there are nowhere near enough police officers to enforce a nationwide lockdown.
 
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Oscar Wildean said:
I agree it's not good on either side. The whole thing is silly and I want to hear actual information.
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The single best thing that could happen? So-called "journalists" start getting a double-tap. Their inanity and total lack of situational awareness, fuck 'em. The lot of them.

Sorry, I'll willingly take my MOTIs, but these miserable fucks aren't helping a God-damn thing. They are feeding the hysteria and making it worse.

Said this earlier, we are seeing panic and the media is fueling it. I'm not worried until the "panic" becomes "desperation."

That's when Slappy locks and loads.
 
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Non-Expert! said:
Did I say that death for any individual is a certainty?

No, I did not. Nothing is certain, for individual survival. But statistics are there.

I also mentioned mass graves. Not in the backyard though. For more information, watch some videos posted on this very forum, of hard hit areas, and how this is being handled.

Taking a daily run to a grocery store, right now, and browsing is simply foolishness. And that IS how you get infected.
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The coof isn't Ebola, with a 50% kill rate and yet the parts of Africa it affected are still around. Same with Marburg, And look at all the diseases that actually killed/maimed before antibiotics were readily available after WWII. Smallpox still killed/disfigured people. As a mother, you're lucky because during the first half of the 20th century many children died from childhood diseases like scarlet fever and whooping cough. Look at any family bible before 1940 and there will be several entries of the children who didn't make it to the ripe age of ten. Yet America not only survived, it became the world's only superpower.

We're all infected. Some people don't even know they had it and fought it off while others, due to pre-existing conditions, are severely affected and some will be affected to the point of death. Others won the genetic lotto while others lost. The real reason for the FUD is because our governments got lackadaisical and ignored the warnings another pandemic was inevitable. No one was prepared.

Let me repeat: No one was prepared for the number of people that were going to need intensive care and treatment. It's the kind of thing that brings down governments. So they went around with their hair on fire and screamed SHUT IT DOWN. The truth is they're not entirely truthful. Look at the masks thing, they and the media went on a "Masks don't protect you so don't buy/wear any" not because it's true but because we sent our PPE to China when they asked us to so now they have to buy up whatever they have left for medical personnel.

We need to stay inside until they get it under control in case we get it, have complications and need to go to a hospital. That's the reason. It's not the Black Death, smallpox or Ebola. We should take this time to carefully read what the people in control are saying and doing because this is all a problem they could have easily avoided.
 
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DNA_JACKED said:
The evidence of virus strains weakening over time is right in front of you. H1N1 killed 60K in America alone in 2009/10, in 2019/20 it has killed less then 1/10th of that. Total sickened by the flu this year is confirmed around 13 million, compared to 57 MILLION in 2009. Not to hard to extrapolate from those numbers really.
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You're extrapolating from a single point. You need to extrapolate from many points. I believe you about the H1N1 , but other pathogens have different rates. I think Syphilis got gradually less damaging over hundreds of years.

My assumptions about the number of mild cases come from three things:
1.) we know this disease is more infectious then H1N1 was, as well as other flus and colds
2.)We know testing is wildly underreporting numbers, because testing is so limited. Even serious cases in hospitals are a total crap shoot on whether you can get tested. 2 of the local cases for confirmed corona? They came back march 13th, just got tested two days ago. They were sick the whole time, sick on the way back from italy. They only got tested two days ago. How many other cases are like theirs, sick but not bad enough to require hospitalization so they never get tested?
3.) This bit you quote right here:

The state of Ohio believed there were over 100K coronavirus cases in the state by the 16th. Two weeks ago. Now, how many are in hospital? How many have been caught? 403 and 1653, respectively. My "assumption" you so readily hand-wave is partially based on the very source you seem to think knows more then the rest of us and has already stated total case numbers are VASTLY underreported. So thanks for agreeing with me, in some bizzare backhanded way.

And, really? Do you REALLY think the government of the western world, who cant get a simple aid bill passed without sperging about racism and privileged and owning trump every 10 seconds could keep such information under wraps this long? REALLY? The government doesnt have some super secret special test that gives them true numbers, the number of tests being performed are extremely limited, and what info they are working with, like reduced emissions and confirmed cases, we are seeing too. I'm sure theyve heard some more coming out of china, but the realistic and simplest answer is that they are shutting things down because they have NO FUCKING CLUE what is going on.

So,a gain, we know how diseases less infectious then corona spread, including SARS and previous corona-viruses, so we can extrapolate from that how many are truly infected with this disease. The only reason to believe the numbers are not wide spread is to honestly trust testing numbers that much, which given how limited testing is, only the truly exceptional would do.
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I think I largely agree with your position, I thought I made that clear. My point was you initially had a go at a poster for unproven assumptions, without acknowledging that that's what all positions are at this stage. It's still really early days, the press reports will change, and the "well known facts " will too.

The war definitely spread the disease, but war movements and weak people do not create a hyperactive killing virus. If that were true war would have wiped out humans long ago. So, why was spanish flu so deadly? Killing your hosts so effectively, especially the young, is a BAD thing for virii.

Well, Mustard gas doesnt kill viruses, so mustard gas+virus=mustard gas+virus. What mustard gas DOES do is cause rampant mutations int he upper respiratory tract. The same place spanish flu attacks so harshly. So mustard gas causes cancerous mutations, bombards cells with mutagens, virus then proceeded to infect said area and get contaminated with heavily mutated DNA, mix with large numbers of people in a cramped area allowing more violent disease to find many hosts to travel home with, and presto, you get spanish flu, a virus so deadly it wiped itself out by accident.

It has not been proven, mostly because you would need to willingly submit humans to those same trails again to prove it, but it is a theory that has been kept alive ever since it was confirmed Spanish flu was H1N1, and not some other long lost strain. There are not many things that make virus hyper-lethal, mutagens are one of them, and the battlefields of WW1 were full of them.
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It sounds like a bollocks theory, and like I said have you got a decent source for it? I must suck at DuckDuckGoing.
The virus encountered damaged human DNA in mustard gas wounded lungs, and swapped genetic material with it, and that's why it was so bad? That doesn't sound right. I'll wait for someone medical to comment. But it sounds like last century's version of 5G.
The virus arose in China and spread round the world, it just found a good hunting ground in the trenches. It's China's fault, as always.

Still not the end of the world. We are not doomed. The extra deaths from spanish flu, swine flu, and smallpox did not doom society, the extra deaths from coofingAIDS will not either.
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Seriously, not even the maddest doom poster here is claiming it's the end of the world. Not even that Train Guy.
It will have lasting affects simply because of
- how interconnected the modern world is, how entwined we are with China.
- How soft and unused to any hardship we are.
- The economic house of cards was due a recession anyway, this is a hell of a catalyst.
It's a big event, not sure you can call it a black swan as it was sort predictable. But it will shake things up. One of my worries is what political changes may come from this.

And those who are panicking are probably more concerned with themselves and their families, not the world. Which is a perfectly understandable position. If I had to choose between the death of a child or the entire population of some foreign country, I doubt I'd make the Mr Spock choice.
 
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Michigan, USA

(Nothing new, just the old trends continuing)

Corona-Chan is in our prisons to stay. Article below says 60 infected at various locations. The most recent figures are at 77.
(article) (archive)

We have so many unemployment claims that the government is putting claimants on a schedule based on their last names.
(government website) (archive)

Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) signs executive order requiring water reconnection for the duration of the emergency.
(article) (archive)

SHUTDOWNS
Shelter-in-place order and shutdown of everything non-essential (groceries, gas stations, pharmacies, the usual) from Tuesday March 24 to Monday April 13. (archive) (executive order saved on KF)
Schools will likely not re-open this year (archive)
The Big Three Auto manufacturers (Ford, GM, Chrysler) are closing all factories in the USA, putting well over 150,000 workers out of work, until "at least April." This figure does not include workers at supplier factories, which will also be obliged to close. (archive) (archive) They will be making a small number of parts for emergency vehicles, and GM will be helping Ventec, a company that makes ventilators (archive - ventilators). Ford will be helping 3M and GE Healthcare to make respirators and ventilators (archive).

THE ECONOMY
Unemployment so high that claims must be made on certain days, based on last name. (archive)
The Great Lakes are at record or near-record highs, flooding our beaches and ruining our chances of tourists saving our economy this summer (archive, archive)

FREE STUFF!
Free bus rides in Detroit after drivers' strike (archive- strike) (archive - free fares)
Free access to state parks (archive)
Evictions suspended while the state of emergency lasts (archive)
Water will be turned back on for all households while the crisis lasts (archive)
State prisoners are being provided two free phone calls and two free emails a week, by the 3rd party vendors thereof (archive)

FREEDOM!
Semi-trucks carrying essential supplies can ignore seasonal road weight limits (archive)
Distilleries can make hand sanitizer without a permit (archive)
Pharmacists may prescribe 60 days of emergency medication and may substitute drugs without physicians approval in event of shortages (archive).
Driver's Ed (the classroom portion) is now available online. (archive)
The city of Detroit is expediting the release of prisoners onto tether monitoring (archive)

BAD SIGNS
Corona-Chan is well and truly embedded in our prison system. 77 confirmed cases. (archive)
Six confirmed cases among patients and staff in Michigan psychiatric hospitals. (archive)
One confirmed case at homeless shelter in Flint (of lead-plumbing fame) (archive)
Detroit hospitals nearing capacity, with almost 450 Wuflu patients. (archive) (archive)
Detroit hospitals prepare triage plans (archive on KF)
Detroit-area nurse makes a video (archive)
Big Brother is watching, and he approves. Massive phone-tracking project reveals Michigan travel down by 45%, compared to 40% nation-wide (archive).

LAW AND ORDER
Lansing (the capitol) police are not physically responding to minor crimes such as larceny, property damage, and break-ins to unoccupied buildings, including garages. Other police are adopting similar policies (archive) (archive), expediting the release of prisoners, etc. (archive - Flint)
39 Detroit police officers and at least 1 firefighter tested positive and over 450 officers and 70 staff are quarantined (the Detroit Police Dept. has about 2,200 officers) (archive) (archive) (archive) Three Michigan officers and police staff dead, all in the Detroit area. (archive) (archive) (archive)
Despite this, 911 calls are down 15-20% in Detroit, and Mayor Mike Duggan (D) estimates actual crime has dropped even more (archive).
Two Kalamazoo police tested positive (archive, archive).
Breaking the lockdown is a misdemeanor, punishable by $500 fines and 90 days jail time. Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) has stated there will not be a "ramp up" of police enforcement (archive). The attorney general has left it to local law enforcement to close businesses, as her hands are full with price-gougers and con artists (archive). Local law enforcement is floundering and we are essentially working on an honor system (archive - Kalamazoo) (archive - Ann Arbor)

DEATH TOLL
Michigan deaths: 21 since yesterday (about the same), 132 total, mostly in and around Detroit, but starting to spread out (Gov site, daily - archive; gov site, total - archive), plus one Ann Arbor man allegedly killed by his roommate in a Corona-related dispute (archive). The suspect has been released from custody while the investigation continues (archive).
 
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Slappy McGherkin said:
The single best thing that could happen? So-called "journalists" start getting a double-tap. Their inanity and total lack of situational awareness, fuck 'em. The lot of them.

Sorry, I'll willingly take my MOTIs, but these miserable fucks aren't helping a God-damn thing. They are feeding the hysteria and making it worse.

Said this earlier, we are seeing panic and the media is fueling it. I'm not worried until the "panic" becomes "desperation."

That's when Slappy locks and loads.
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People are definitely getting frustrated. Journalists aren't helping by asking doom and gloom questions. That's annoying as well. That's when people started panic buying in stores in my area. Because of the stories that started coming out.
 
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MrBlueSocks said:
You're extrapolating from a single point. You need to extrapolate from many points. I believe you about the H1N1 , but other pathogens have different rates. I think Syphilis got gradually less damaging over hundreds of years.


I think I largely agree with your position, I thought I made that clear. My point was you initially had a go at a poster for unproven assumptions, without acknowledging that that's what all positions are at this stage. It's still really early days, the press reports will change, and the "well known facts " will too.


It sounds like a bollocks theory, and like I said have you got a decent source for it? I must suck at DuckDuckGoing.
The virus encountered damaged human DNA in mustard gas wounded lungs, and swapped genetic material with it, and that's why it was so bad? That doesn't sound right. I'll wait for someone medical to comment. But it sounds like last century's version of 5G.
The virus arose in China and spread round the world, it just found a good hunting ground in the trenches. It's China's fault, as always.



Seriously, not even the maddest doom poster here is claiming it's the end of the world. Not even that Train Guy.
It will have lasting affects simply because of
- how interconnected the modern world is, how entwined we are with China.
- How soft and unused to any hardship we are.
- The economic house of cards was due a recession anyway, this is a hell of a catalyst.
It's a big event, not sure you can call it a black swan as it was sort predictable. But it will shake things up. One of my worries is what political changes may come from this.

And those who are panicking are probably more concerned with themselves and their families, not the world. Which is a perfectly understandable position. If I had to choose between the death of a child or the entire population of some foreign country, I doubt I'd make the Mr Spock choice.
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The theory has never been proven. The allies were theorizing this in 1918:
"https://virus.stanford.edu/uda/"
"Some of the allies thought of the epidemic as a biological warfare tool of the Germans. Many thought it was a result of the trench warfare, the use of mustard gases and the generated "smoke and fumes" of the war ". This was later backed up by Mustard gas being a mutagen, however this mutagen behavior has not been observed affecting viruses due to the method it goes about damaging human cells.

Others agree with you that the creation of the virus was due to the trench conditions, as such conditions would allow for more aggressive, deadlier strains to evolve, but others disagree that these situations alone would create a virus that aggressive.
 
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DNA_JACKED said:
Shutting down entire countries for months on end because of some coofing isnt advisable either. Aside from totally derailing quality of life, The damage from doing so will wind up making 2008 look like childs play if its allowed to go for too long.

Human beings are not meant to sit inside all day. As the weather gets nicer, there is going to be increased pressure to lift restrictions, and if the government doesnt do it, sooner or later people will blatantly ignore the orders. Especially as bills come due and paychecks are not filled. Even this $1200 per adult stimulus isnt going to hit in time for april's bills. What happens at the end of april, when funds have totally run dry, people need food, may's bills are coming up, and congress is tying itself in knots trying to get another stimulus bill passed?

Being a NEET is not the status quo for most people, and that friction is going to grow the longer we are shut down, and unless governments can prove most people are still vulnerable, people are not going to listen, and there are nowhere near enough police officers to enforce a nationwide lockdown.
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This. Here's the sad paradox of attempting a long term quarantine. You better have bodies littering the streets. Everyone better know someone or have a family member who contracted or lost their life to it. Otherwise the population will not long tolerate it. Trump just recomended another month of lockdown and "Social Distancing". Right now the disease is remote and imaginary for most Americans. They are getting uncomfortable at the two week mark. Asking another 30 days is really pushing things. Especially with the Governor of the State with the big outbreak, threatening legal action and war if all the other states do not allow his infected New York elite to run away to whatever state they choose in order to share the pain.
 
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We will see in the next 2 days if the upwards trend in infections in germany is realy broken, today looks promissing, but sunday data is always a bit fishy.
We could see the number of active cases go down in mid april if the trends all hold. deathrate still under 1%
hospitals are just in some more rural hotspots full, overall its looks okay.
Mechanized Testing is starting monday, next weeks testings numbers are projected at 300k+, if they can get enough patients snot.
Test runs with a couple of medicaments have been started last week but Hydroxychloroquin can already be used off label.

my corona paid leave was extended for 2 more weeks, the company is doing the summer reworks early and the storage is still pretty full, last weeks orders were 10% of the normal orders.
 
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Oscar Wildean said:
Maybe it's optimistic but once the weather starts getting really hot I figure a lot of people will stay indoors at some point.
At least I will. Fuck the hot weather.
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If I were the government and wanted to try get better lockdown compliance, I'd get my tame media to ramp up the scariness for younger people. Instead of focusing on the old folks, have as much focus as possible on any young victims. Make sure every person of partying age in the hospital gets dramatic coverage. Have them social distancing for their own sakes.

It's interesting watching and reading news during any crisis/war/etc once you stop considering it as news and realise it's all just propaganda. Tailored to the audience to get them to react in the right way. Think, "out of all the things that happened today, why are they showing me this? Why are they showing it in this way?"
 
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