Easter is going to be interesting. Long weekend, a lot of people take the week before or after as a holiday, it’s the first holiday of the year where the weather is going to be OK. Let’s see what happens to lockdown. I suspect people are going to flout it.
I’m seeing a lot of shrieking about Sweden’s relaxed approach, but in effect it’s the same as what we’ve achieved - keep the really vulnerable home and let everyone younger just get it. There’s not much difference between allowing people out and telling them to stay in and them ignoring it and going out anyway.
I suspect, that when all is said and done, the measures countries put in place won’t have much effect on the final death tolls. No one is locking down for months, and when they open up, they’ll start dying at the same rate everyone else did, or at least most of the same vulnerable will still be hit.
I suspect that population density is going to be the big differentiator in the west, and a combo of population density, state of health service and genetics is going to be what counts everywhere else.
A while back I think
@RodgerDodger noted about small spikes in things like care homes and big spikes when larger things like hospital systems are hit. I think that will repeat on a larger scale - small spikes where a village gets hit, bigger ones for places like NY. But I do t think that all other factor being equal, somewhere like Denmark is going to end up with fewer dead at the end of it all than sweden.
We are still in the denial/bargaining phase of this. It’s going to run it’s course, until it’s out of fuel.