Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

[Stoneheart]

I’ve not seen any convincing evidence of this yet. South Korea has done hundreds of thousands of tests and they have a fail rate of 20-40% depending on who you listen to.

the PCR test has 20-40% fail rate? how is that possible?

 

[Feline Supremacist]

Does anyone else remember when Hillary was calling herself abuela and the left thought it was the most endearing thing ever.

Everybody except people whose native language is Spanish. Some things are too much even for the Dreamers.

 

[Silver Chariot]

South Korea has done hundreds of thousands of tests and they have a fail rate of 20-40% depending on who you listen to.

Out of curiosity, what do you mean by fail rate? False positives? False negatives? both?

 

[mindlessobserver]

Will be interesting to see how many people will actually self-quarantine. Suggest pushback is growing nationwide, at least in the states under house arrest.

Going to be interesting to see what happens when people start refusing to pay these fines they've been given for going to church or attending private gatherings.

 

[New & Improved Username]

Coronavirus vaccine may be six months away, lead researcher says

A COVID-19 vaccine may be six months away, according to researcher leading a team of scientists in England. “I think there’s a high chance that it will work based on other things that w…

nypost.com

“I think there’s a high chance that it will work based on other things that we have done with this type of vaccine,” Sarah Gilbert, a professor of virology at Oxford told The Times of London. “It’s not just a hunch and as every week goes by we have more data to look at. I would go for 80 percent, that’s my personal view.”

This would be great if it works out but it's a short article that doesn't say whether the 6 months would be for the vaccine to be proven or if it would be proven and manufactured for people to start getting it. It's probably too good to be true though and we'll just get the coof before the vaccine.

 

[Non-Expert!]

I've seen put forth on places like 4chan /pol/ the idea that the weird "flu" that a lot of us suffered from in the fall or early winter might have been a milder form of COVID-19 that arrived on the west coast before the CDC was even aware of it but now that idea seems to be getting traction from some scientists and the mainstream media.

New California antibody study could point to possible herd immunity to COVID-19

The hypothesis that COVID-19 first started spreading in California in the fall of 2019 is one explanation for the state's lower than expected case numbers.

www.ksbw.com

Supposedly, it might have arrived in California in September 2019 and would likely have spread in North America beyond California by December, when my brother visited from Vancouver. I became ill in early January, around a week after he left and the illness stuck around for weeks. It was a very strange "flu" because I had a high fever but wasn't all that congested.

Here is another article that says something similar:

Coronavirus may have been in California earlier than thought - Los An…

archived 11 Apr 2020 16:41:47 UTC

archive.li

What are long term coronavirus effects? - Los Angeles Times

archived 11 Apr 2020 05:32:30 UTC

archive.li

Althouth I am skeptical, I hope that they are right because I am afraid of this thing.

I mean how much would it suck for kids, to grow up with parent(s) who are in early phases of organ failure because of this shit. A lot of people apparently don't just walk away from it. I mean it would suck to live the rest of your (shorter) life with crappy lungs, a weak heart, on dialysis or a gimp liver, if you are in your late '30s, 40's or '50's.

But not being able to do stuff because Mom or Dad isn't feeling well, will will significantly add to this generation's bucket of suck. Or having no money due to being on disability because parent(s) are too gimp to work? Another layer of suck.

I am hoping that this "California Immunity" thing is true. They will find out soon enough. However I am skeptical because why weren't people dropping like flies early on, like they did in New York or Italy?

 

[afternoon_tea]

Covid-19 has been linked to the horse shoe bat. This particular type of bat is not native to the Wuhan area either and not used as ''meat'' (that's the poor ''fruit bat'').

So what the fuck?

View attachment 1224417

This is why I think it's connected to the lab in Wuhan. Horseshoe bats are known SARS-like coronavirus reservoirs that have been studied for awhile now.

I think it would be way too much of a crazy coincidence for the initial epicenter to be right down the street from a lab known to study coronaviruses in horseshoe bats. I guess anything is possible, but it's hard not to make the connection. This is why I lean towards "lab accident" being behind this.

I'm still gonna call it Bat Soup Flu though.

ETA: If it was from something sold at the market though it could have been an intermediate host, like how with OG SARS it went from bats to civets to humans. There was some talk of it maybe being pangolins with this one, which are popular in Chinese medicine.

 

[Autistic lurker]

Tunisian army using helicopters to disperse the crowd

 

[LazyLizard]

Shitposting Savant on Twitter

“Here is your order of masks from Hoo Flung Poo manufacturing in Wuhan China. Please enjoy! No refunds or returns. https://t.co/FY8zs8Xoya”

twitter.com

when will the west learn to not buy medical supplies from china? first they only sent defective tests and the masks that were to shit for even them to use but now they're not even sending that now they just send boxes of cut up paper pretending it's masks. they're going full Bernie "no refunds"

 

[Without A Gout]

Tunisian army using helicopters to disperse the crowd
View attachment 1224710

That's just Pequod coming to pick up Venom Snake. Nothing to see here.

 

[Gustav Schuchardt]

Bill Maher weighs in on Kung Flu, and immediately the CCP shills spit out Xi's cock from their mouths long enough to sputter incoherently with rage.

Bill Maher has this unique ability to make me think 'What a cunt' even though when I agree with most of what he's saying. It's like after 9/11 when he was calling out Islam and pointing out the absurdity of left-wingers who criticized that. To paraphrase The Big Lebowski you're not wrong in this instance Bill, but you're still an asshole.

 

[Blop]

Updated IHME models as of yesterday for you to play with. Have fun!

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

https://archive.li/GNoAh

What’s new in this update:

COVID-19 Estimation Updates

Read about the latest changes to our projections model.

www.healthdata.org

COVID-19 estimation updates | Institute for Health Metrics and Evalua…

archived 11 Apr 2020 17:01:18 UTC

archive.li

 

[MediocreMilt]

Bill Maher has this unique ability to make me think 'What a cunt' even though when I agree with most of what he's saying. It's like after 9/11 when he was calling out Islam and pointing out the absurdity of left-wingers who criticized that. To paraphrase The Big Lebowski you're not wrong in this instance Bill, but you're still an asshole.

I had to turn it off when he explained his tick joke. Help! What is subtlety?

 

[Gustav Schuchardt]

well OK. So flu has two major antigens, H (haemaglutinin) and N (neuraminidase.) think of them as the sticky outy bits on the surface of the virus. They are the bits your immune system recognises. This is why flu is named like H1N1, or H5N7. The numbers are broad subtypes of H and N,
Now flu can mutate in two ways. Firstly is the way all viruses do, by just little mutations - basically like Chinese whispers (pun intended.) every replication produces little errors so our say H1N1 flu is a little different each year. But it’s broadly H1N1. This process is called antigenic drift. Once you’ve had any of them you’ll be a little bit immune to all . You might still get sick but it’s unlikely to be catastrophic
The second way flu mutates is antigenic shift. This is generally what creates new flus that cause pandemics. because flu doesn’t just circulate in humans, it also circulates in pigs and water fowl and birds. So all sorts of stuff is sloshing around in birds and pigs.
If one of the following happens, it can cause reassortment and shift:
1. A new bird flu, let’s say H5N1 jumps bird to human - it’s totally novel.
2. a human or pig gets infected with two types of flu at once, they swap antigens and a brand new flu pops out. Jumps to humans or spreads in humans.
3. Bird flu jumps to another species like a pig then to humans.
All these events are like shuffling the deck - now you’ve got H5N1, or H7N9. different combinations of an H and an N. And it’s new and nobody has any immunity and if it can spread person to person, we are fucked.

the people who create the flu vaccine each year look at sentinel samples to see what strains are circulating and they make a guess as to which few go into the vaccine that year. They also test to see if new strains are arising. Although it tends to be obvious, because you get massive die off of animals. Or people

Would it help your experiments if we captured some Chinese people for you to experiment on?

Coronavirus may have been in California earlier than thought - Los An…

archived 11 Apr 2020 16:41:47 UTC

archive.li

From the article

Iranian tradition dictated that the family wash her body and prepare it to eventually return to the earth, Amir said. Instead, the county health department required that she be sealed into a plastic bag for interment.

"Our religious traditions say that his body must be buried so it eventually returns to the Earth"

"Yeah mate, no. Your religious traditions can get fucked. We're triple bagging the cunt. He will 'eventually return to the Earth' when the bags decompose in about a thousand years."

 

[derpherp2]

This is why I think it's connected to the lab in Wuhan. Horseshoe bats are known SARS-like coronavirus reservoirs that have been studied for awhile now.

I think it would be way too much of a crazy coincidence for the initial epicenter to be right down the street from a lab known to study coronaviruses in horseshoe bats. I guess anything is possible, but it's hard not to make the connection. This is why I lean towards "lab accident" being behind this.

I'm still gonna call it Bat Soup Flu though.

While I agree with the lab accident thing we still have to factor how self-serving and retarded the chinks there are.

There's a chance that the market is still involved in way of smuggling the bat for some retarded high-stakes espionage attempt/food seasoning gambit just to increase their prestige on the research firm.

It could also be the thing that made the virus spread globally easily, after all wuhan is their trade center and the virus is airborne - apparently.

 

[Gustav Schuchardt]

What’s new in this update:

COVID-19 Estimation Updates

Read about the latest changes to our projections model.

www.healthdata.org

COVID-19 estimation updates | Institute for Health Metrics and Evalua…

archived 11 Apr 2020 17:01:18 UTC

archive.li

What’s new in this update:

COVID-19 Estimation Updates

Read about the latest changes to our projections model.

www.healthdata.org

COVID-19 estimation updates | Institute for Health Metrics and Evalua…

archived 11 Apr 2020 17:01:18 UTC

archive.li

From the archive link

Hitchens got criticised by horrible cunts when he said that it's questionable to base draconian policy on the results of model runs when those results can change so drastically over time. And he's right, even if I disagree with him that a lockdown is currently justified.

What will be interesting is what happens when we hit the peak. Like the model I think we're close to it, and in fact may already have passed it

I think the models may become more accurate post peak actually. It seems intuitively that when you're on the way back down the normal curve post peak things are more predictable than when you're on the way up and don't know where the peak is because when the peak is is a very important variable.

It also seems, pace Hitchens, to be a good thing if the model updates are all trending down in terms of peak deaths and sooner in terms of the date that peak will occur.

 

[simulated goat]

The horseshoe bat thing actually jibes very well with laowhy86's theory about the lab bringing it back by accident during a bat study.

There is mention made of villagers close to the bat caves testing positive. It would be interesting to look at their immune systems.

 

[Silver Chariot]

Althouth I am skeptical, I hope that they are right because I am afraid of this thing.

I mean how much would it suck for kids, to grow up with parent(s) who are in early phases of organ failure because of this shit. A lot of people apparently don't just walk away from it. I mean it would suck to live the rest of your (shorter) life with crappy lungs, a weak heart, on dialysis or a gimp liver, if you are in your late '30s, 40's or '50's.

But not being able to do stuff because Mom or Dad isn't feeling well, will will significantly add to this generation's bucket of suck. Or having no money due to being on disability because parent(s) are too gimp to work? Another layer of suck.

I am hoping that this "California Immunity" thing is true. They will find out soon enough. However I am skeptical because why weren't people dropping like flies early on, like they did in New York or Italy?

Don't get me started on the possible future layers of suck.
WWIII? A total possibility, nationalism will be at another high after this. Anti-Chinese fervor, whether the left like it or not, will be rampant. I can only fear the worst.
Some of these people won't have proper closure because they weren't at their loved ones side when they passed on. Emotional wounds may heal, but the scars will last.
The economy will be utter trash. Sure, it will probably recover, but that's just more piles of pain to add on. The only bright side is that the job market is better, but only because those who passed on left those jobs.

People weren't dying early on because California cities are more spread out. NYC is on a network of islands, so people are crammed. It's easy for a virus to spread that way. I can't speak for Italy, I wouldn't know how the population density works, but since it's smaller than Cali anyway, I'm putting my money on the density.

 

[Quijibo69]

This will end well:

 

[Gustav Schuchardt]

The horseshoe bat thing actually jibes very well with laowhy86's theory about the lab bringing it back by accident during a bat study.

A lot of people seem to think that is plausible, including Richard Ebright. The Washington Post even covered it sympathetically.

How did covid-19 begin? Its initial origin story is shaky. - The Wash…

archived 4 Apr 2020 08:08:04 UTC

archive.vn

There’s a competing theory — of an accidental lab release of bat coronavirus — that scientists have been puzzling about for weeks. Less than 300 yards from the seafood market is the Wuhan branch of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Researchers from that facility and the nearby Wuhan Institute of Virology have posted articles about collecting bat coronaviruses from around China, for study to prevent future illness. Did one of those samples leak, or was hazardous waste deposited in a place where it could spread?

Richard Ebright, a Rutgers microbiologist and biosafety expert, told me in an email that “the first human infection could have occurred as a natural accident,” with the virus passing from bat to human, possibly through another animal. But Ebright cautioned that it “also could have occurred as a laboratory accident, with, for example, an accidental infection of a laboratory worker.” He noted that bat coronaviruses were studied in Wuhan at Biosafety Level 2, “which provides only minimal protection,” compared with the top BSL-4.

Ebright described a December video from the Wuhan CDC that shows staffers “collecting bat coronaviruses with inadequate [personal protective equipment] and unsafe operational practices.” Separately, I reviewed two Chinese articles, from 2017 and 2019, describing the heroics of Wuhan CDC researcher Tian Junhua, who while capturing bats in a cave “forgot to take protective measures” so that “bat urine dripped from the top of his head like raindrops.”

And then there’s the Chinese study that was curiously withdrawn. In February, a site called ResearchGate published a brief article by Botao Xiao and Lei Xiao from Guangzhou’s South China University of Technology. “In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan. Safety level may need to be reinforced in high risk biohazardous laboratories,” the article concluded. Botao Xiao told the Wall Street Journal in February that he had withdrawn the paper because it “was not supported by direct proofs.”

Accidents happen, human or laboratory. Solving the mystery of how covid-19 began isn’t a blame game, but a chance for China and the United States to cooperate in a crisis, and prevent a future one.