Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

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A group at the Singapore University of Technology and Design tried to fit normal curves to the published daily case numbers and use that to predict how long the epidemic will last

Here's their prediction for the UK


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They actually get a very similar result for the US because we are Brother Nations, notwithstanding the anti British prejudice of some people here. The UK is not like those Eurotrash or murdering ChiCom bastards.

The columns are 97%, 99%, and 100% of the cases

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Edit: Had some weirdness posting this. The posting hung with a progress bar, tried again, same thing. I actually ended up posting this twice and the post doesn't show on my recent activity. Which makes me think something is up with the server.
 
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All of that was the same here in Australia.

Our difference is elective surgery is now to resume (surgeons now less bored) and our PPE situation is well sorted (better stockpile according to Prime Minister ScoMo).

Just one note: When they cancelled "elective" stuff, the important shit still got done. So if your prostate cancer was aggressive, you're still getting that surgery. Things that could wait, were expected to wait. Doctors always get cagey about this stuff because waiting can/does cause issues. But this waiting stuff can occur randomly due to hospital demand anyway...not just because of WuFlu.

For those of you who aren't aware, elective surgery just means booked/planned. It doesn't necessarily indicate severity. An aneurysm repair can be both elective or emergency depending on the circumstance. A broken finger requiring K-wire is the same. There's a whole lot of factors involved that I can't be fucked explaining.

Since elective surgery is back on, the private hospitals have said "GTFO" to the public patients being sent there as a "minimising risk" strategy.

We had issues of sanitiser theft but donning/doffing stayed the same with no reports of people having to wear the same gear more than once. (And I get reports from all over Australia - majority of medical staff have worked at multiple hospitals and maintain contact with others at different locations). So I'm inclined to believe our government about the PPE supply.


Also my understanding through conversations I've had (but not confirmed by any agency or national body) is that the Aus lockdown was to prepare medical sites in preparation for a long slog. Essentially: boost medical capacity, slowly ease restrictions, case numbers will rise but less deaths due to increased medical capacity, expect these makeshift hospitals to be around for a while solely dealing with China virus patients. I guess we wait and see if that claim holds any water.

In the meantime, I really hope the number of pollution goblins and Pajeets disappears from this country.

China threatened Australia by saying they won't send their kids to our Universities anymore

...and nothing of value was lost.

I do love how people are now in the "we must secure the existance of the white race" mentality unironically to some degree. Honestly. I am one of those old meritocrats that, despite how much I love to use racist jokes, won't care about skincolor or nationality in the real aplication. Judge a group by the individual, never an individual by the group, as it goes. But globalization has had horrible consequences certain countries sure as shit aren't sending their best. It's time they realize they are not welcome, and need to go back. And chink bugmen and sandniggers most of all. They were the ones that declared war against us with their belt and road and their trucks of peace, not the other way around. Time we hit back. Before they stop being a minority and do what they always do when they realice they can get away with it. Least we end like south africa.
 
Travis AFB update

Despite Solano County just having been told that the shelter in place order has been extended by another month rather than ending with April, the base is to resume normal operations as of Monday, May 4th.

A manager or whatever from one of the civilian companies that the David Grant base hospital sub-contracts from has been making the sub-contracted employees who process scheduled patients as they come in stay until their clock runs out each day. Three things wrong with this.
1) They run out of shit to do long before their clock runs out and the people running the hospital's various departments always tell workers (be they military or civvie) to fuck off to home for the day if their shit's done. This is how it was even before the big coof-coof hit.
2) The cocksucker who's making those civilians stay longer than they need to works from fucking home.
3) Civilian managers don't get to call any shots around here, yet no one is putting their foot down and sending those civilians home before calling up their little worm of a manager to wring his balls remotely over his absolute disregard for the safety of his employees and the hospital's personnel in general.
 
A group at the Singapore University of Technology and Design tried to fit normal curves to the published daily case numbers and use that to predict how long the epidemic will last

Here's their prediction for the UK


View attachment 1259122


They actually get a very similar result for the US because we are Brother Nations, notwithstanding the anti British prejudice of some people here. The UK is not like those Eurotrash or murdering ChiCom bastards.

The columns are 97%, 99%, and 100% of the cases

View attachment 1259124

Edit: Had some weirdness posting this. The posting hung with a progress bar, tried again, same thing. I actually ended up posting this twice and the post doesn't show on my recent activity. Which makes me think something is up with the server.

That August prediction seems very (and naively) optimistic
 
Fursuit probably counts as PPE

well they are known for catching diseases...


A group at the Singapore University of Technology and Design tried to fit normal curves to the published daily case numbers and use that to predict how long the epidemic will last

Here's their prediction for the UK


View attachment 1259122


They actually get a very similar result for the US because we are Brother Nations, notwithstanding the anti British prejudice of some people here. The UK is not like those Eurotrash or murdering ChiCom bastards.

The columns are 97%, 99%, and 100% of the cases

View attachment 1259124

Edit: Had some weirdness posting this. The posting hung with a progress bar, tried again, same thing. I actually ended up posting this twice and the post doesn't show on my recent activity. Which makes me think something is up with the server.

This rather strikingly supports that paper by Israeli scientist Issac Ben Israel that predicted that Corona-Chanseemingly displayed an 8 week cycle from community onset until suddenly fading. And that lockdown etc appeared to have little to no effect on it. It will peak around week 5 then simply diminish.

here’s an article about it. The actual paper in in Hebrew.
 
That August prediction seems very (and naively) optimistic

Why? All they're doing is curve fitting. Here's the paper. It's a SIR model and they do a regression. Incidentally, the August deadline is for 100% of cases. The UK will open when cases have been falling consistently for a week. Which means at the 97% or 99% point, not the 100% one. If this curve is followed

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I'd predict an lockdown begin to ease between the 17th and the 30th May.


In this case, to estimate the pandemic life cycle, daily updated COVID-19 data from Our
World in Data 1 are used to regress the SIR model of COVID-19 using open-source codes
from Milan Batista. Regression is run for individual countries and updated daily with the
newest data. The regressed model is used to estimate the full pandemic life cycle and plot
the life cycle curve. The initial segment of the curve is fitted with the data to date and the
remaining segment of the curve is predicted. With the estimated full life cycle curve (see
examples in Figure 2), one can easily observe which phase of the pandemic life cycle a
specific country is in (with actual data plotted together), when the inflection point (the peak
in the bell-shape curve) is coming (for the interests of the countries still in the accelerating
phase), and when the pandemic will end (for the interests of all countries).

The inflection point is specific as it appears as the peak in the bell-shape curve. However,
estimating the “ending date” is not so straight-forward and may be done differently for
different considerations. Most theoretically, one can define the end date as the day with the
last infection of the pandemic, and thus operationalize the estimation of the end date as the
day with the last predicted infection at the right most end of the estimated pandemic life
cycle curve. However, practically, estimation of the definitive ending might not be useful to
provide guidance for the planning of activities of governments, companies and individuals.
One might consider an early date when the predominately most predicted infections
(indicated by the regressed pandemic life cycle curve) have been actualized and only a small
portion of the total predicted epidemic population is left. The total predicted infection size
is the total area under the curve. Our latest predictions provide the following three
alternative estimates of end dates in the order of conservativeness.

- The date to reach the last expected case;
- The date to reach 99% of the total expected cases;
- The date to reach 97% of the total expected cases.
 

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With the risk of the virus mutating into something more deadly, and the fact the UK has not handled the situation all that well, it seems the only option right now

/sigh... I hate Hollywood and the MSNPC Media. They’ve created this almost entirely false narrative that a Virus will mutate into something more deadly as it progresses through a population. While a virus can mutate to become more lethal, it is generally viewed as an unsuccessful mutation. Because it quickly kills the host and is unable to spread. This is why Ebola burns out so quickly. A successful mutation of a virus, one that increases the viruses ability to spread and survive is a Less Lethal or better yet benign form that does not kill the host. Thisis what largely ended the last H1N1 outbreak. A more successful mutation popped up that was mostly benign to the host, but still generated antibodies against the lethal strain. The benig version was able to more swiftly spread in the population, because the hosts survived and spread it, and thus displaced the lethal strain.

Generally more lethal viruses are not very successful in nature. They are more likely to become a threat when artificially subjected to an unnatural environment or manipulation. Things like Range of Function experimentation. (Which I remain convinced that that is where the Wu Flu comes from.)
 
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If I were to guess the senior restaurant bucks are going to be aimed at older people who no longer can cook for themselves. In the past these people got food elsewhere, maybe even regularly attending meals at local churches, or going to friends and relatives. We're keeping them in so they need something.
I wouldn' be too envious. It's probably just like that weird rice and bean stuff a kiwi got pages back from restaurant program. Fun fact, often in those programs you can't get food made with pork because there are people who don't eat it for religious reasons out there and we would be ever such shitlords if we didn't respect that and never contaminate our kitchen with pork while serving that population. Also every bit is larded with white flour and white rice for fill which is why homeless people who rely on such food can maintain large weights.

edit for update and sperge
 
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Absolute lunacy by Vox
Holy shit. I generally consider myself right-wing, but with a party like that I could see why people would vote in leftists in Spain.

With the risk of the virus mutating into something more deadly, and the fact the UK has not handled the situation all that well, it seems the only option right now
This doesn't work like Plague Inc.
The virus isn't suddenly going to flip a switch and go mega lethal on us.

If anything, lockdowns are counter-productive to viral mutation because they are allowing the more lethal strains to spread at the same rate as less lethal strains by creating a restrained environment scenario; whereas in an open environment scenario the less lethal strains benefit from getting to ride their host 1-3 weeks longer than the lethal strains.
Not saying this IS the case, but if mutation were a factor, it would be to our benefit.
 
You know, due to this insipid lock down, I know exactly how many people I've seen in the last two weeks and where and when I saw them all. It wouldn't be that hard to do contact tracing for sick individuals without bugging their phones. Just a weird thought...

Call it insipid, but the lockdown may have saved your life
 
What's really alarming are idiots who wear masks but keep their noses uncovered. Why even bother?
I see those too and I can only think WTF? Or people who keep touching the mask and adjusting it by grabbing it by the snout and repositioning it wholesale. Then they go on to touch the produce.
 
Call it insipid, but the lockdown may have saved your life

Look at all those excess deaths Sweden had compared to the UK.


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Someone did a study to see if locking down earlier resulted in fewer deaths

https://archive.vn/V81Ve

We ran a simple one-variable correlation of deaths per million and days to shutdown, which ranged from minus-10 days (some states shut down before any sign of Covid-19) to 35 days for South Dakota, one of seven states with limited or no shutdown. The correlation coefficient was 5.5%—so low that the engineers I used to employ would have summarized it as “no correlation” and moved on to find the real cause of the problem. (The trendline sloped downward—states that delayed more tended to have lower death rates—but that’s also a meaningless result due to the low correlation coefficient.)

1588094023730.png
 
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If I were to guess the senior restaurant bucks are going to be aimed at older people who no longer can cook for themselves. In the past these people got food elsewhere, maybe even regularly attending meals at local churches, or going to friends and relatives. We're keeping them in so they need something.
I wouldn' be too envious. It's probably just like that weird rice and bean stuff a kiwi got pages back from restaurant program. Fun fact, often in those programs you can't get food made with pork because there are people who don't eat it for religious reasons out there and we would be ever such shitlords if we didn't respect that and never contaminate our kitchen with pork while serving that population. Also every bit is larded with white flour and white rice for fill which is why homeless people who rely on such food can maintain large weights.

edit for update and sperge


Ya, that's why I want to see what the program is all about before I apply. If I can't go to a restaurant on the list and get what I want won't waste any time applying.
 
Börk news: 81 91 dead http://archive.is/wip/QeJJc
Tegnell: Begins to get a certain step
The number of deaths in Sweden appears to be slowing down somewhat, according to the Public Health Authority. Over the past 24 hours, 81 infected persons have died in Sweden, causing the total death toll to rise to 2,355.

"Of course it is terrible with all these people who die in this disease and we certainly should not reduce them to pure numbers, but it is also important to understand what the development looks like," says Anders Tegnell, state epidemiologist at the Public Health Authority, adding:
- Here it looks like we are starting to get a certain step down in the number of cases.
When it comes to the spread of infection in Sweden, it remains at about the same level as before. However, it looks very different in different parts, according to Tegnell. In Norrbotten, for example, you have a very flat curve and few cases.
The updated figures show that a total of 19 621 people have been confirmed to be infected by the corona virus in Sweden.
1,388 people receive or have received intensive care in the country.
- There is still very strong pressure on IVA care in Sweden. But the share from Stockholm is starting to decrease slightly, in other parts of the country, more is being added, Tegnell says.
On Tuesday, there are 1,085 available IVA sites in Sweden, according to Johanna Sandwall, crisis management manager at the National Board of Health and Welfare.
- Therefore, it is extremely important that the national coordination of IVA sites has been achieved, says Johanna Sandwall.
Some private healthcare companies offer antibody tests against payment, something that the Public Health Authority keeps a little watch on.
- We look at them continuously. Today, none of these players have tests that we think we can recommend.
Most tests miss a lot of positives, according to Tegnell.
Different authorities give different bids on how far distance one should keep to other people outdoors. This is simply because there are no clear answers to suit all situations, says Tegnell.
- As an individual, it is important to remember that this is the situation when you are opposite each other and socialize, this is where the great risk lies, he says.
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Many exceptions to entry bans in Sweden - people who do not have permits admitted

There is a temporary entry ban in Sweden, right now until 15 May. But the exceptions are many and it still lands about 40 planes on Arlanda per day. Anyone with flu-like symptoms is encouraged to seek care, but no special check is made.

And every day at least a couple of people who do not have the right to cross the border are stopped. The majority of them are admitted anyway.

- Apocalyptic, right?

Border Police Gustaf Engström looks out through the huge glass sections at the F-pier at Arlanda. At the far end of the concrete slab are three obviously abandoned Norwegian planes parked, behind them some equally stranded "SAS carts".

- It doesn't even smell like aviation fuel here anymore. As it usually does, Gustaf Engström continues.

No wonder. So far in April, air traffic has decreased by 97 percent. Since you normally have 170 border police on duty on a rolling schedule, you are now down to 20, plus, of course, a number of passport inspectors. Out of 600 flights per day, some 40 remain, many of them going to and from countries outside Schengen.
About ten of the flights are cargo flights, some of the plans are so-called repatriation flights, ie trips that are carried out with the help of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Others are more or less half-empty regular flights, a few of the flights have come on private initiative - such as the plane that landed last night with just over 90 Swedish citizens on board. It was lifted from Baghdad - without the border police being informed of who was actually on board.

- There it broke down in the communications, the permits to land came very late and tight in, states Arlanda's deputy local police area manager Lars Hammarsjö who also noted that some information has been broken regarding some less private chartered planes that have been allowed to land on Bromma during the last for weeks - without the border police in place.

According to Swedavia, there are about 15 flight movements per day at Bromma, where it is about socially important flights such as ambulance flights, cargo flights and private business flights.

Two of the passengers on the privately chartered plane from Baghdad, a married couple, were rejected directly at border control when they were not allowed to enter Sweden because of the "Temporary Travel Ban Regulation" (SFS 2020: 127).

Three days later, when DN is in place, they are still left in a deserted transit hall; all restaurants and cafes are closed. They have access to water and toilets, but that's all. Here also sits a man from Ukraine who had hoped to come to Sweden to work.

- We've bought food at McDonald's a couple of times. But tonight we hope that all three will come away, watches the border police officer Finnsson who does not want his first name in the newspaper.

He has difficulty concealing that the situation is far from satisfactory.

For a few weeks now he has fixed blankets, bought diapers and shelter for several people who have ended up in the no man's land that is the transit hall.

So there are those people where the police believe that you can find a flight back within three days - and that is far from everyone. Since the entry ban was first introduced in mid-March, some 70 individuals have been rejected directly at the border check - but most of them have been admitted into Sweden anyway because there were no flights back to their destinations of origin within a reasonable time.

- We don't know where to do them. You can't live here at the airport. So we handle their passports and let them go, with the hope that they will return as soon as they can, says Finnsson.

The Border Police Section of Noa, the national police department of the police, is aware of the difficulties in enforcing the rejection decisions that are made. Everyone knows that there is a lack of flights that the people in question can return with.

- How these cases are handled practically is up to the decision makers in the region. Legally, the same legislation applies as before and the police's mission is the same - that they should be rejected, says Kristoffer Tunander, Noa's administrator.

He confirms that border police, for practical reasons, allow travelers, even though they do not have the right to enter.

- In order to reduce the risk that the individual in question does not consider themselves in connection with the departure, the travel documents are handled. They must also provide contact information and there is also the opportunity to make decisions about supervision, that is, the person in question must regularly report to a police station, says Kristoffer Tunander.

Upon departure, it is then recorded that the person in question has left the country. So far, no follow-ups have been made.

- We can only conclude that the transit area or other parts of Arlanda are not meant for a longer stay, Kristoffer Tunanader continues.

Finnsson sighs and looks up at the blackboard where the afternoon's arrivals are announced:

14.35 Zurich, 16.34 Doha, 16.35 Helsinki, 19.30 Tunis, 20.30 Amman. After all, there will be some jobs.

- We notice that those we reject have become more and more desperate. Some of us have dragged the crying up to the transit hall when they understand that they must not enter, he says.

This afternoon, only airplanes announced on time land. The border police's so-called "second line" (those who make in-depth checks and investigations) already have full control over which individuals in theory are on board. A few of the hundreds of passengers who are on entry have been "highlighted" in the computer system, someone because they have no known domicile in Sweden, someone else because the police have other (and classified) reasons to want to know how that individual is moving .

The plan from Tunis in Tunisia and Amman in Jordan are two of the thirteen flights where the Foreign Ministry is behind the event and they are therefore basically full, the regular flights are not even half full.

Thus, QR 167 lands from Doha with only 68 passengers and almost 200 empty seats. Gustaf Engström and border commander Finnsson occupy their positions in the smaller arrival hall which lies before border control takes place. There they will now engage in so-called profiling of the passengers. Does anyone look aberrant? Does anyone disappear into the toilets without coming out within a reasonable time?

In the passports, where there is overpressure to protect the passport controllers from contaminated air, Varley Colin and Joakim Melbius are ready to review passports, visas and other relevant documents, in accordance with the boundary code prevailing in normal cases. In addition, the new regulation stipulates that the basic rule is that only Swedish citizens or persons already resident in Sweden may enter and thus return home.

Anyone who is in transit - who has to change flights to go home to another EU country - may pass.

As soon as the question mark arises, the passport inspectors push a button, which immediately leads to one of the investigators coming to the rescue to find out what is valid.

- Border control is of high quality and I have no concern that "wrong" people are admitted. Lars Hammarsjö believes that the risk of, for example, terrorism-lowering or human smugglers entering themselves is minimal.

Most passengers who arrive on the flight from Doha in Qatar are wearing mouthguards as they step into the terminal at Arlanda. A child family from Gothenburg who has been more or less isolated with relatives in Tehran for 70 days is tired but happy to finally be on Swedish soil and Mathilda Willén, who was an exchange student in Singapore but also happy to be home again.

- They feel a bit like I was the last Swede to leave Singapore. It will be interesting to experience the difference, I realize that there are two different worlds.

- In Singapore, you get SEK 2,000 in fines if you stay outside without a mask, here I understand that it is not at all as strict, she says.

As an exchange student, she had insurance - the Chamber College helped her get home and she also had contact with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

- I've never been directly worried about being infected. But it's clear that I thought I might be safer in Singapore than here, says Mathilda Willén and grabs her luggage.

None of the travelers are particularly checked for any symptoms of illness. Anyone who feels that they have symptoms is asked to seek medical care upon arrival, that's all. For each flight, the captain on board is also responsible for the persons who got on board - in theory at least no one who is obviously sick should be present.

In addition to the 13 flights organized by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry has made it possible for Swedes abroad to travel with another 150 flights. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has then had close dialogue with local authorities all over the world. This has involved everything from getting to the necessary flights and landing permits to high-level contacts, in some cases at the Foreign Minister level, to enable these flights.

In the next few days, landings at Arlanda will come from, among others, Amsterdam, Tenerife, Bangalore, Singapore, Beijing, Bratislava, Minsk and Doha.

- So despite the wastefulness, there is at least little to do, says border commander Finnsson and cast a glance at the clock.

Soon time for the plane from Tunis.
From the comments section
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Not Google Translate said:
I arrived in Stockholm with the morning flight from Addis Abeba On March 29th. At the check-in in Ethiopia I was thoroughly inspected in regard to nationality as well as whether I had any fever. In Sweden the only noticeable sign of preparedness was that [people from] the National Health Agency were present and gave information in Swedish. After the passport control I was free to stroll straight into the country which was a bit surprising.
Ethiopian Airlines and Addis Abeba are a transfer hub for travelers from all around the world.
 
an NHS Trust has announced they plan to prioritise POCs for PPE. In England.
The reasoning is interesting. I suspect that they may be correct in that non-British doctors and nurses are more at risk- however, probably for the same reasons of carelessness, incompetence, and low moral character that results in 80% of cases before the UK's medical tribunal being brought against non-British doctors.
And then suddenly, for no reason at all, the English decided to secure the existence of their people and a future for white children.
Wildly optimistic. This is why the system sets up controlled opposition parties like UKIP, Britain First, etc.
 
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