Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

[Feline Supremacist]

Nah she sounded like she already had them. Always talking about New Age woo but she was a nice old lady so I let it slide. Last I heard she was in the psych ward but it wasn't her first rodeo.

 

[Overly Serious]

Released 1 hour ago. Archived here.

I've looked at it. I'm not qualified to judge their maths or their models, but the code already looks far better than the awful mess Neil Ferguson / Imperial College were using. (Well, say they were using but they're still refusing to release the code they actually used).

 

[Shugo]

The biggest concern might be intercollegiate sports. A sport such as football brings in enough money to fund teams that always operate at a financial loss but are needed to satisfy Title IX requirements. Anything that has a negative impact on football revenue can hurt the rest of a college's sports programs, especially for NCAA Division 1 schools (the biggest division for those outside the US). That's going to be a shit show because you know the moment any women's team facing cuts due to reduced overall budgets will be quick to file a Title IX complaint even though less money means all other sports have to share the losses.

Good, anything to end the NBA using the public University system in the USA for taxpayer funded stadiums and taxpayer-funded grants for Ape Hoop scholarships.

Maybe Universities might return to becoming institutions for training and educating adults for business instead of using the publicly funded school basketball system, publicly funded multimillion dollar sports stadiums, to function as a pre-season preview for the NBA, NFL, whatever sports ball recruiters.

You don't have a good paying job/become a taxpayer within 5 years of graduating University? Pay back your scholarship immediately and it should be distributed to all taxpayers who filed in the year your dumb ass went to school on a sports ball scholarship.

 

[Archeopthryx]

One of the predictions I have after the pandemic dies down is there will be fashion branded face masks. The corporations have began ordering custom corpo-branded PPEs.

Some Companies Order Branded PPE for the Office

3d printing for professional protective gear.

www.adweek.com

Can't wait to get my snazzy style-guided face masks in my cagey-wagey.

 

[Shaka Brah]

Apparently the dipshit doctor who claims he was fired for whistleblowing against the Trump admin and hydroxychloroquine is going to grandstand to Congress to demand his job back, say Trump is imcompetent, and that we do in fact need a national response that is 100% the same, ie the same lockdowns everywhere.

If the Dems succeed, we're headed for 1000 years of darkness. Remember that in Texas, Democrats campaigned to import Mexican "doctors" to put American ones out of work during the crisis, while refusing to allow American doctors to reopen clinics.

 

[LolNoIPLeaksEvenLMFAO]

Ya know at this point the theory of everyone having COPD in China or the CCP selectively released footage to scare the world. Regardless it worked and it’s fucking bullshit. I don’t care if airborne super aids is the next thing that hits I’m killing people. I even live in a state that was reasonable, but fuck this.


Stay at home if you are scared faggots. NY and CALI officially deserve the government they have for not killing their governors. I don’t wanna power level where I’m at, but it was reasonable IMO. Like hey dont get close, but we’re not gonna arrest you if you do. Oh you wanna go hiking? Great idea and not a reason for a drone to be a Karen.

I’ve always hated the government, but for some dumbass reason it took this long to sink it they have pure contempt for people. I knew they were pieces of shit, but fuck this is low. Only good feds are dead feds. Fuck it im MOTI, but these cocksuckers deserve public execution. Get the journalist to report on it and then throw them in the mix.

Whatever shits back to normal just ya know the economy is trashed. I’m fine financially, but who the fuck wants to live in a world with 15%+ unemployment.

Everyday the unabomber is just more and more correct. Fuck.

 

[HTTP Error 404]

If the Dems succeed, we're headed for 1000 years of darkness. Remember that in Texas, Democrats campaigned to import Mexican "doctors" to put American ones out of work during the crisis, while refusing to allow American doctors to reopen clinics.

They had better pray that social conditioning against White Identitarianism holds long enough, or it's gonna get fucking ugly.

 

[Mrs. Addams]

https://www.foxla.com/news/los-angeles-county-announces-new-safer-at-home-order-with-no-end-date

LA County closed forever. Or at least until there's a cure "reliable vaccine" for Rona. There's not even a cure reliable vaccine for Influenza nigga. How long until LA is deserted?

Damnit. Not that I'm surprised, but this still really sucks for moral and hope and all that Jazz.

 

[Silence of the Troons]

http://archive.is/mfQ72

Study: 5% of Spanish population has had coronavirus
A government antibody survey suggests that just 2.3M residents of Spain have been infected

Just 5% of Spain’s population has developed coronavirus antibodies, according to the first results of a serological study conducted by the Spanish government that was announced Wednesday.

The study, which tested the blood of around 60,000 randomly selected participants, suggests that 2.3 million people in Spain have been infected by the virus.

That is around ten times higher than the 228,691 cases that the country has so far confirmed.

If the study is correct, it would bring the fatality rate of the virus to around 1.1% in Spain. So far, the country has confirmed 27,104 deaths.

According to Marina Pollan, the head of the National Center of Epidemiology, around 26% of infections were found to be asymptomatic.

She also said the study found that antibodies were less frequent in children than in the general population.

The rate of antibodies also varied considerably by region. In Madrid, one of Spain’s hardest-hit areas, 11.3% of the tested population had antibodies. In regions including Asturias, the Canary Islands and Murcia, immunity was found in less than 2% of the sample.

The results of this study suggest the disease is less widespread than other researchers have thought. In late March, a study by Imperial College London estimated that there had been 7 million cases of coronavirus in Spain.

The study’s findings also mean that 95% of Spain’s population is still vulnerable to the virus.

According to Johns Hopkins University, for a population to develop herd immunity, usually between 70-90% of the group must have immunity.

The antibody studies were led by the Spanish Health Ministry and the Carlos III Health Institute. Researchers claimed the blood tests were "accurate enough" to use for the study.

 

[Honka Honka Burning Love]

Damnit. Not that I'm surprised, but this still really sucks for moral and hope and all that Jazz.

Can we talk about the Language there

"Safer at home." I dunno what is creepier that wording

or Joesph Robinette Biden.

 

[Otterly]

‘

http://archive.li/mfQ72

Hmmmm.... well I’d like to see when the sample was taken, for starters and how that was projected forwards. Antibodies take several weeks to ramp up, so effectively you’re looking at a snapshot of x weeks ago when you do this.
I’d also like to know what antibody tests they used and what serological tests. Because frankly, I STILL haven’t seen one that I think is accurate enough.

maybe @EmuWarsVeteran can comment?

 

[teriyakiburns]

The WHO just released a statement that this virus may go from "pandemic" to "endemic." People are absolutely losing their shit on Twatter over it, letting the panic fully set in as they are ready to let the government force us into a "permanent new normal."

That means it'll join the common cold and a bunch of other seasonal virus infections. Endemic means shit, especially given how few people it actually kills.

 

[Honka Honka Burning Love]

The WHO just released a statement that this virus may go from "pandemic" to "endemic." People are absolutely losing their shit on Twatter over it, letting the panic fully set in as they are ready to let the government force us into a "permanent new normal."

Well all those lockdowns did their job of stopping the coof didn't they? TOTALLY WORTH IT TO MAKE THIS THE NEW NORMAL!

 

[Unpaid Emotional Labourer]

Lol again, any plan has to be tied to numbers. You either get strict time-based, strict metric based, or ideally a blend, as in, we will lock down for six weeks, during which time we will monitor the following: whatever. If the whatever is whatever and stays whatever for whatever weeks, then here’s what will happen (plan).

Nobody is tryin‘ to hear about “new normals.” Never say new normal to me. The new normal is not going to be living like this forever, and the same people saying this is the new normal are telling me there’s little chance for a vaccine, ever, and if so, it’s years out.

If there is a new normal it isn’t going to be this. It’s going to be an adjustment about what we consider to be an acceptable degree of death and type of victim vs literally nothing in the world functioning in any way ever again, and function will win out. The new normal may be enhanced protocols for nursing homes, elderly and infirm and their close family and friends making adjustments in public and in private, and monitoring certain metrics so we can see if there’s a concerning pattern change.

If from the very beginning the government had set some constraints, even imaginary ones, that the public could look to, it would‘ve been very different. I mean theoretically, we could be prepared to shut down/use enhanced measures in certain ways for limited periods in the future based upon established metrics. Like, we hit a certain threshold in a region and (don’t shriek at me, Amber alert haters) we get texts or emergency broadcasts which would be very useful for the olds since they’re mostly the ones who still watch local tv and listen to local radio anyway. Maybe it’s a color coding thing and the protocol is established for each range. That would’ve worked. Or the goddamn weather for your area includes it and you just check it like you’d check for rain and be like welp guess we won’t go to the beach, 100% chance of thunderstorms today. Welp, looks like we’re in the yellow zone, so grandpa doesn’t go to the grocery store and calls for delivery or gets a relative to drop it off. Next day oh good, still yellow but the trend is looking good, established protocols say we gotta be trending downward x days to get back to the green zone, so grandpa can look to that.

Now people are not going to want hear about shutdowns again because they don’t trust anything without a limit, and even if a limit was used at this point, you’d have folks ululating about how everybody needs to just accept that the limit used isn’t really a limit and it will probably be two years or forever. Which destroys everything.

 

[Flaming Carrot]

Interesting Twitter thread on contract tracing. Spoiler alert - unforeseen complications arising

https://twitter.com/TheAgeofShoddy/status/1260640963103322113

https://archive.is/eEwIE

 

[EmuWarsVeteran]

Couple of things:

1-Of course as soon as Ayuso's stupid masks were found to be fraudulent the company disappeared into thin air again.

Hilariously however this is backfiring tremendously as the one thing everyone's just touting is "of course the company was chinese", so the tactic the chinks used to try and dodge responsibility has only caused spain, and even our journos that usually try to cover for china, to point their fingers straight at them and happily generalize all chinese products as invariably fraudulent and useless.

Best part is it's usually the PP trying to protect their chinese investments and they did so last time by trying to blame spain for buying from a fraudulent company and tried to sweep under the rug the fact that there is no non-fraudulent chinese company. But with the PP between the sword and the wall and this being bought by one of their own they have to choose between backstabing themselves or finally getting out of the way, which they have done. So there's no one to stop the economic warfare from escalating at long last. This will bring heavy repercussions. And I'm fairly sure most other countries will be joining the anti-china side happily at this point. Specially when the fraudulent tests and masks keep making their way everywhere through NGOs like the gates foundation being used as backdoors.

2-The climate's shit today. Lots of rain and wind. People seem not to care and have gotten up for exercize anyway. I predict a cold epidemic tomorrow.

EDIT: https://www.lavozdigital.es/cadiz/p...cia-alerta-amarilla-202005141137_noticia.html
As you can see the storm is getting worse. It's seriously the worst storm we've seen in a long fucking time. The city is covered by fog, many roads have started flooding, and the wind is going crazy (and cadiz is used to some crazy ass winds but this is way more than the worst levante's I've seen), the province was on yellow alert but I'm seriously starting to think this is shaping up to be a typhoon. At least there's no one on the streen anymore, so no worry on that front.
/EDIT

3-Also. Welcome to clownworld legislation. The phase 1 change didn't involve the walks because those were done for all phases. This is important because walks are restricted by municipio. But phase 1 changes by province. This has resulted in this bit of fun:

Where technically you can't go on a walk if it leaves the municipio. But you CAN go on a walk to another municipio so long as you tell the cops you're going to a bar in that other municipio. This has resulted in the cops just unceremoniously and unofficially dropping the municipio barrier altogether without recognizing it publicly because, well, it's fucking retarded.

4- it seems the PP's strategy to clean their image is to launch another attack on ISCIII in general and Fernando Simon in particular calling him "dr death" to try and hide their corruption. It hasn't worked but it has been quite annoying. At this point they are trying their luck, and they keep rolling snake eyes.

5-also have technical documentation on the diagnostic and prevention strategy moving forward:

 

[MrBlueSocks]

New ONS figures for UK , up to week ending 1st May 2020 . archive . Spreadsheet attached.

Covid Deaths definitely look like they are over the peak now.
W/E 17th April = 8758
W/E 24th April = 8237
W/E 1s May = 6035
Total deaths doing the same:

Age breakdown shows ,to a first approximation, that it's really just deadly to old people .
Given how few 90+ Y/O people there were in the general population to start with, then 6,611 must be a significant mortality rate.

(Total column added by me, possibility of wrongness)

 

[FatalTater]

Interesting Twitter thread on contract tracing. Spoiler alert - unforeseen complications arising

https://twitter.com/TheAgeofShoddy/status/1260640963103322113

https://archive.li/eEwIE

Personal information being used by shady characters for nefarious purposes? Quelle surprise.

Cats can get asymptomatic CoronaChan? This sucks. Assholes who hate cats and want to hurt them will now have a (flimsy) excuse.

Cats can infect other cats with coronavirus, researchers find

Cats can infect other cats with the novel coronavirus Covid-19.

www.cnn.com

http://archive.vn/1INDA

 

[MrBlueSocks]

Follow up.
The ONS has also tried to breakdown the most affected occupations. archive . It obviously heavily features people exposed to the public in close quarters . But it's lower end workers like Taxi drivers and security guards, not twerkers like Tik Tok nurses that are hit the hardest. Medical staff have the same rate as the overall working age population.

Spoiler: Text of Article

• A total of 2,494 deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) in the working age population (those aged 20 to 64 years) of England and Wales were registered up to and including 20 April 2020.
• Nearly two-thirds of these deaths were among men (1,612 deaths), with the rate of death involving COVID-19 being statistically higher in males, with 9.9 deaths per 100,000 compared with 5.2 deaths per 100,000 females (882 deaths).
• Compared with the rate among people of the same sex and age in England and Wales, men working in the lowest skilled occupations had the highest rate of death involving COVID-19, with 21.4 deaths per 100,000 males (225 deaths); men working as security guards had one of the highest rates, with 45.7 deaths per 100,000 (63 deaths).
• Men and women working in social care, a group including care workers and home carers, both had significantly raised rates of death involving COVID-19, with rates of 23.4 deaths per 100,000 males (45 deaths) and 9.6 deaths per 100,000 females (86 deaths).
• Healthcare workers, including those with jobs such as doctors and nurses, were not found to have higher rates of death involving COVID-19 when compared with the rate among those whose death involved COVID-19 of the same age and sex in the general population.
• Among men, a number of other specific occupations were found to have raised rates of death involving COVID-19, including: taxi drivers and chauffeurs (36.4 deaths per 100,000); bus and coach drivers (26.4 deaths per 100,000); chefs (35.9 deaths per 100,000); and sales and retail assistants (19.8 deaths per 100,000).
• This analysis does not prove conclusively that the observed rates of death involving COVID-19 are necessarily caused by differences in occupational exposure; we adjusted for age, but not for other factors such as ethnic group and place of residence. We have also published an article that explores possible differences in occupation exposure to COVID-19.

First link is to the summary. They admit they haven't controlled for location. There's going to be more security guards and tax drivers in the cities I guess. But still, useful data.
This earlier analysis is of the potential exposure by occupation : Occupation Analysis . archive .
I guess because of PPE and procedures the infection rates don't map to the potential exposure for privileged workers.

 

[DNA_JACKED]

Yup.

Funny, NONE of the little Hitlers who put their states under house arrest apparently considered the massive drop in tax revenues that would result. Bunch of dumbfucks on power trips. Sure doesn't build any confidence in their ability to govern.

But here in CA, got a "health director" planning to keep Los Angeles County under lockdown for three more months. Just asking for trouble.

Indeed, the house arrests need to be ended as soon as possible, before the people end them. The cure is worse than the disease.

Our health director wants to keep things going, and after extending the stay at home order to the end of May, the state congress starting working on legislation to strip her position of any ability to sign off on any orders, forcing the governor to put his head under the guillotine if he wants people to stay home.