2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

[Ruin]

Slightly off topic question but who do you think was the Jeb of the democratic primaries? I would think Bloomberg for just how much fucking money he pumped into his campaign to no avail

Beta O Rourke

 

[heyitsmike]

Slightly off topic question but who do you think was the Jeb of the democratic primaries? I would think Bloomberg for just how much fucking money he pumped into his campaign to no avail

I don't know who Jeb is. I do know who Jeb! is though.

I would say the Jeb! of the Dem primaries was Kamala. Establishment backed politician, initially well funded but blew through it quickly, dropped out early, murdered on the debate stage.

 

[Nacho Man Randy Salsa]

Honestly this
>Trump win
People radicalize further after Trump squeaks out a win and you get 2016-2020 on steroids; Massive backlash in 2024 leads to the 8 years of pent up rage being inflicted on America causing the country to start self-cannibalizing.
>Biden win
Neoliberals try and fail to get their mob under control and the country starts self-cannibalizing even faster than with the Trump Victory, though only by 4 years and for all I know that is being optimistic about the results of a Trump victory.

Either way, the ultimate result is the same.

That second one actually sounds tantalizing. Never really thought about it that way.

 

[jje100010001]

Strong political moves from Trump in limiting visas, will encourage his base.

https://www.npr.org/2020/06/20/881245867/trump-expected-to-suspend-h-1b-other-visas-until-end-of-year

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/06/22/trump-halts-foreign-visa-worker-programs-to-free-up-600k-u-s-jobs-for-americans/

Let's see how the Dems respond in attempting to block it.

 

[Bland Crumbs]

I don't know who Jeb is. I do know who Jeb! is though.

I would say the Jeb! of the Dem primaries was Kamala. Establishment backed politician, initially well funded but blew through it quickly, dropped out early, murdered on the debate stage.

Blew through it....I see what you did there.

 

[Maamtis]

Nah, they were never quite this batshit crazy. Remember, those people are still around. Nancy Pelosi would have been 29 during Woodstock.

I think she was 29 when the meteor that killed the dinosaurs hit. It just gave her an even bigger hangover.

 

[Pickle Dick]

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/what-to-expect-from-gen-z-voters-in-2020-elections (A)

because a few dummys pwning orange man totally translates to votes for biden

 

[heyitsmike]

Here's the results from the official PA Election Returns site, as of June 20th.

View attachment 1392620

The only silver lining is that Biden is not winning unanimously even with Bernie endorsing him.

Looks like Biden isn't consolidating in New York either. He's actually doing worse than in Pennsylvania.

 

[jje100010001]

Looks like Biden isn't consolidating in New York either. He's actually doing worse than in Pennsylvania.

With all the Progressive wins last night (thankfully the Republicans held their seats), can we consider that support is not quite consolidating behind 'moderate' Biden, and that the Democrats are still fractured?

It's clear that even if elected, Biden would be backed with a progressive Democratic Congress that we’d need to deal with- a Trojan horse scenario.

 

[BeboRefugee]

With all the Progressive wins last night (thankfully the Republicans held their seats), can we consider that support is not quite consolidating behind 'moderate' Biden, and that the Democrats are still fractured?

It's clear that even if elected, Biden would be backed with a progressive Democratic Congress that we’d need to deal with- a Trojan horse scenario.

Why WOULD moderate Dems be energised this time? To a moderate, getting excited for the Democrats means getting excited for your heritage revoked, your towns on fire, and riotous college students telling you that you suck (and going unpunished).
To the Progressives, the riots sure have energised them, but not necessarily for Biden. Biden SAYS he'll implement everything Bernie was, but they understand there's no passion in what he's saying. No drive to fight for those things.

I really don't know how the DNC intends to pivot this over the next 3 months. They've got all the wrong people energised, and the cohort they actually need to claw back is thoroughly turned off. The type that's always voted Democrat, yet are fully aware of what a threat Antifa is, and agree with Candace Owens over BLM, even if they aren't allowed to say so in public

 

[jje100010001]

Recent polls- Biden still ahead by a lot in the popular vote, beyond the white male contingent Trump has. That being said, polls are only as good as the day they're taken on, and I definitely still think there's a 'shy Trump' contingent out there who fears 'cancelling'.

Surface-level Takeaway- many normies are still consooming legacy media (Twitter still has a low penetration in the US), and have only seen recent events from the establishment's preferred viewpoint- they aren't really see the true extent of the degeneracy happening. Economy is still in the dumps, and the national mood is dour from recent events.

Trump doesn't have the ability of surprise in 2020, as an incumbent, and as liberal tech has progressively strangled off conservative voices. A voter contingent of deranged anti-Trump voters has also formed, which will need to be considered. Trump has around 5 months to get the economy up and running and to restart his electoral machine.

Biden, on the other hand, might as well be considered the 'generic Democratic candidate' considering his handlers' strategy of hiding him away- if he emerges and shoots off his mouth once more, his numbers could very much drop. Biden still also has the VP consideration to utilize, though I strongly believe that it'll be Kamala Harris to target swing states, suburban women, and blacks.

Trump needs to be fighting as if he's 20 points behind, and devise a mail-in ballot strategy + an EC strategy. This election will be fought out of the swing states. I wonder if any of his 2016 strategists are working with him again, beyond Parscale? There are also the debates to be looking forward towards, but I think they'll try to get Biden out of those using Coronavirus as an excuse.

 

[MrJokerRager]

Recent polls- Biden still ahead by a lot in the popular vote, beyond the white male contingent Trump has. That being said, polls are only as good as the day they're taken on, and I definitely still think there's a 'shy Trump' contingent out there.

Takeaway- most normies are still consooming legacy media (very few on Twitter), and have only seen recent events from the establishment's preferred viewpoint- they aren't really see the true extent of the degeneracy on Twitter. Economy is still in the dumps, and the national mood is dour from recent events.

Trump doesn't have the ability of surprise in 2020, as an incumbent, and as liberal tech has progressively strangled off conservative voices. A voter contingent of deranged anti-Trump voters has also formed, which will need to be considered. Trump has around 5 months to get the economy up and running and to restart his electoral machine.

Biden, on the other hand, might as well be considered the 'generic Democratic candidate' considering his handlers' strategy of hiding him away- if he emerges and shoots off his mouth once more, his numbers could very much drop. Biden still also has the VP consideration to utilize, though I strongly believe that it'll be Kamala Harris to target swing states, suburban women, and blacks.

Trump needs to be fighting as if he's 20 points behind, and devise a mail-in ballot strategy + an EC strategy. I wonder if any of his 2016 strategists are working with him again, beyond Parscale? There are also the debates to be looking forward towards, but I think they'll try to get Biden out of those using Coronavirus as an excuse.

View attachment 1402912

Brad Parscale is only there because he is a yes man. Only Trump can win this election based on his personality and economy at this stage. I just learned there are new smaller websites being created in response to Big Tech fucking over conservatives each passing day from this website. So there are some still willing to fight. As for the Bernie Bros, either they stay home or vote for Trump out of spite because as much as they hate Trump, they hate the neo shitliberals and Biden even harder. And Kamala Harris is heavily hated by them. Trump needs the independent vote in his favor for the win or hope there is depression in the vote.

 

[heyitsmike]

The polls right now are a weird thing to read because they need context that depends on the eye test and on feel.

Scenario 1: Trump has badly mishandled the pandemic response, race relations and civil unrest, causing everyone on the margins to turn against him. The country would truly rather have a demented Biden controlled by unknown DNC operatives and lobbyists.
Result: Dip in Trump's approval and matchup numbers against Biden.

Scenario 2: The left is showing their inner fascism and authoritarianism by setting their own cities on fire, general lawlessness, cultural overreach and attacks on anyone who has even a neutral opinion of Trump. People on the margins, who unlike staunch Trump supporters, are unwilling to publicly voice their objections and subject themselves to harassment for a guy they generally feel ambivalent about. Though they are appalled at what they see from the Democrats, they go along and say the socially desirable things.
Result: Dip in Trump's approval and matchup numbers against Biden.

The end results of both scenarios look the same. So how do you know which one you're dealing with? You really don't know for sure. You're going in blind and have to go on feel. Do people blame Trump for shootings in CHAZ or Democrats?, etc. But the people in scenario 2 are not going to vote to give power to the people who would subject them to said harassment, and in the privacy of the voting booth will vote for Trump.

I know this risks sounding like the left where failures are actually signs of success, like with the trope, 'But we won the argument!' But right now you just can't take anything on its face.

I think we're in scenario 2. But if America is in fact in scenario 1, well then there are much, much bigger problems than Biden being elected.

 

[Mr. ShadowCreek]

Trump needs to hope that Biden really stumbles in the debates. This includes many pauses, not understanding the question, not having an answer, giving an answer that has nothing to do with what was asked, etc. I'm guessing the Dems will try to give him really easy and short questions and give him the time to think without making it look weird. Biden's accused assault and racist comments will also be ignored.

 

[MrJokerRager]

The polls right now are a weird thing to read because they need context that depends on the eye test and on feel.

Scenario 1: Trump has badly mishandled the pandemic response, race relations and civil unrest, causing everyone on the margins to turn against him. The country would truly rather have a demented Biden controlled by unknown DNC operatives and lobbyists.
Result: Dip in Trump's approval and matchup numbers against Biden.

Scenario 2: The left is showing their inner fascism and authoritarianism by setting their own cities on fire, general lawlessness, cultural overreach and attacks on anyone who has even a neutral opinion of Trump. People on the margins, who unlike staunch Trump supporters, are unwilling to publicly voice their objections and subject themselves to harassment for a guy they generally feel ambivalent about. Though they are appalled at what they see from the Democrats, they go along and say the socially desirable things.
Result: Dip in Trump's approval and matchup numbers against Biden.

The end results of both scenarios look the same. So how do you know which one you're dealing with? You really don't know for sure. You're going in blind and have to go on feel. Do people blame Trump for shootings in CHAZ or Democrats?, etc. But the people in scenario 2 are not going to vote to give power to the people who would subject them to said harassment, and in the privacy of the voting booth will vote for Trump.

I know this risks sounding like the left where failures are actually signs of success, like with the trope, 'But we won the argument!' But right now you just can't take anything on its face.

I think we're in scenario 2. But if America is in fact in scenario 1, well then there are much, much bigger problems than Biden being elected.

Basically got to keep the secret ballot alive and stop mail in voting for scenario 2 to work.

 

[FunPosting101]

Recent polls- Biden still ahead by a lot in the popular vote, beyond the white male contingent Trump has. That being said, polls are only as good as the day they're taken on, and I definitely still think there's a 'shy Trump' contingent out there who fears 'cancelling'.

Surface-level Takeaway- many normies are still consooming legacy media (Twitter still has a low penetration in the US), and have only seen recent events from the establishment's preferred viewpoint- they aren't really see the true extent of the degeneracy happening. Economy is still in the dumps, and the national mood is dour from recent events.

Trump doesn't have the ability of surprise in 2020, as an incumbent, and as liberal tech has progressively strangled off conservative voices. A voter contingent of deranged anti-Trump voters has also formed, which will need to be considered. Trump has around 5 months to get the economy up and running and to restart his electoral machine.

Biden, on the other hand, might as well be considered the 'generic Democratic candidate' considering his handlers' strategy of hiding him away- if he emerges and shoots off his mouth once more, his numbers could very much drop. Biden still also has the VP consideration to utilize, though I strongly believe that it'll be Kamala Harris to target swing states, suburban women, and blacks.

Trump needs to be fighting as if he's 20 points behind, and devise a mail-in ballot strategy + an EC strategy. This election will be fought out of the swing states. I wonder if any of his 2016 strategists are working with him again, beyond Parscale? There are also the debates to be looking forward towards, but I think they'll try to get Biden out of those using Coronavirus as an excuse.

View attachment 1402912

I do agree that Trump actually needs to work to win the election, but I don't believe this poll frankly, the latest poll out of Michigan says something very different, for example. https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1275225950373007366
Moreover, I have no fucking idea what methodology the quoted poll is using either, what turnout level is being assumed, what the weighting is, whether it's a poll of registered voters or likely voters, whether or not they are undersampling republicans and over sampling democrats, etc. There's one other thing too, that ties into what I just mentioned, there's good reason to suspect that polls are currently undersampling republicans in the various battleground states, https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/17/trump-polls-biden-324210 This article tries to pretend like it isn't that big of a deal, but the moneyshot is this bit:

But some pollsters, especially the relatively few who conduct surveys in battleground states, are still grappling with the problems that plagued those polls four years ago. In fact, most pollsters believe that, on balance, state polls are overstating the scale of Biden’s advantage.

That was precisely the problem in 2016: The national polls were largely accurate, to within the margin of error. But there were too few state polls, and many of those that were conducted failed to collect accurate data, especially from white voters without college degrees in key swing states.

And those issues haven’t been fixed.

“I would say that most, if not all, of the concerns that we expressed still hold — some to a lesser degree,” said Courtney Kennedy, director of research at the Pew Research Center and lead author of the polling industry’s post-2016 autopsy. “But I think some of the fundamental, structural challenges that came to a head in 2016 are still in place in 2020.”

Biden's lead is likely being overestimated, by how much is unclear.

 

[Kane Lives]

I do agree that Trump actually needs to work to win the election, but I don't believe this poll frankly, the latest poll out of Michigan says something very different, for example. https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1275225950373007366
Moreover, I have no fucking idea what methodology the quoted poll is using either, what turnout level is being assumed, what the weighting is, whether it's a poll of registered voters or likely voters.

Is there any incentive ever to be truthful to a pollster? Especially in this climate of cancelling people over the tiniest bullshit?

 

[MrJokerRager]

Is there any incentive ever to be truthful to a pollster? Especially in this climate of cancelling people over the tiniest bullshit?

Unless its a anonymous poll, I would say no. Only poll I would be truthful on is the polls sent to me from the GOP directly if I will vote or not and other stuff, since I have registered with them and have a interest in them getting elected over all these fucktards.

 

[jje100010001]

The polls right now are a weird thing to read because they need context that depends on the eye test and on feel.

Scenario 1: Trump has badly mishandled the pandemic response, race relations and civil unrest, causing everyone on the margins to turn against him. The country would truly rather have a demented Biden controlled by unknown DNC operatives and lobbyists.
Result: Dip in Trump's approval and matchup numbers against Biden.

Scenario 2: The left is showing their inner fascism and authoritarianism by setting their own cities on fire, general lawlessness, cultural overreach and attacks on anyone who has even a neutral opinion of Trump. People on the margins, who unlike staunch Trump supporters, are unwilling to publicly voice their objections and subject themselves to harassment for a guy they generally feel ambivalent about. Though they are appalled at what they see from the Democrats, they go along and say the socially desirable things.
Result: Dip in Trump's approval and matchup numbers against Biden.

The end results of both scenarios look the same. So how do you know which one you're dealing with? You really don't know for sure. You're going in blind and have to go on feel. Do people blame Trump for shootings in CHAZ or Democrats?, etc. But the people in scenario 2 are not going to vote to give power to the people who would subject them to said harassment, and in the privacy of the voting booth will vote for Trump.

I know this risks sounding like the left where failures are actually signs of success, like with the trope, 'But we won the argument!' But right now you just can't take anything on its face.

I think we're in scenario 2. But if America is in fact in scenario 1, well then there are much, much bigger problems than Biden being elected.

Agree on this point, but I think the situation is a bit fuzzier, and contain elements of both scenarios- hence the difficulty of making an accurate call.

Of Biden's support:

While people with a modicum of intuition would realize that there is literally first-hand evidence of Biden being a poor comparison to nearly every president in the last 20 years and that Trump is hardly more evil than Obama, there are many already instilled with the mindset that Trump is the great/greater evil and blue=good (the #votebluenomatterwho types). Breaking them out of their narrative trance is impossible (TDS). Most of these are Liberals and Neo-Cons- progressives do see through the facade and end up being split in their support.

Then there's the people who don't really follow politics but see chyrons and read headlines, and come off with a negative impression of Trump (aka the Trump is mean folks). These are usually the moderates, centrists, and small-c conservatives.

And finally there are the group that consists of your Scenario 2 folks, who fear 'cancellation' if they are willing to express their opinions- which might consists of moderates who feel that the Democrats have left them, and conservatives living in hostile environments. The question is if these are even willing to take polls or not.

Trump's visible support is very much core support- everyone who willing to express their support publically will likely vote for him. I think we'll need to see whether or not the Scenario 2 folks are enough to take him over the finish line, or if Trump will need to court more of the Scenario 1 folks.

I also think that 2020 will contain elements of 2016 (Trump on Ticket, Trump win) + 2018 (GOP fatigue + changed campaign strategies, mild GOP loss) that would be helpful broken down and analyzed.

 

[Harvey Danger]

Oh no, are they cancelling Joe Don Baker?

Nope, it's even stupider.

He might be right that it's the cleverest thing to come out of the Biden campaign, but that's a harsh condemnation, not praise.