Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

[Gustav Schuchardt]

This is interesting. In the very first set of case reports, from China, they strongly advised against use of dexamethasone and showed ‘data’ that made it seem as if it increased death rates by a significant amount.
Now a british study, RECOVER, shows it’s extremely effective.
http://archive.md/vNnKj https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53061281
How many lives lost by listening to the original
Advice from China?

I was thinking about this. Could China have fed bad info? How would they even know what info was bad?

Actually it's not that hard. If I were them I'd allow researchers to publish freely initially, i.e. the default state. There'd be a lot of noise in the initial data - small sample sizes, no control groups, etc- but as the process worked and large scale double-blind studies were published the noise level would drop. As soon as that looked like it was happening I'd just classify all medical papers on COVID as a state secret, which is easy to do in China because almost everything is a state secret.

The end result - you've just fed a load of bad studies to those round-eyes. And in the US this would be particularly effective because fucking idiots have decided that whether or not hydroxychloroquine works is a political issue. Because Trump mentioned it the media decided to cover any stories which showed it was ineffective and bury ones which showed it was effective. So even though a functioning scientific system would be able to purge that bad data given time in the fucked, politicized system we have now that doesn't happen.

I dunno if this happened or not of course but the fact it is possible should be deeply worrying.

Welp. Google installed their malware on my phone without permission and without notifying me.

View attachment 1391866

And you can't turn it off.

Settings, Google Services and Preferences, COVID-19 Exposure Notifications

Phone is a Google Pixel 4xl on Project Fi.

It's on my phone too. The interesting thing is you need to install 'a participating app' to activate it.

Incidentally, US cases have gone up a bit since the riots. Which makes sense - black people are disproportionately affected by COVID and ecouraging them to riot means they're not social distancing. Presumably the Democrats, who suported both the lock down and the riots will start whining about a 'second wave' and use that as an excuse to re-lockdown. This will fuck the economy and make it more likely that incumbents lose in November. Plus of course the media is full of stories saying 'Trump supporters oppose BLM and hence are racists'.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
https://archive.vn/5w7S5

Meanwhile in the UK it looks like they're bottoming out

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
https://archive.vn/wip/zuHZS

Since the UK doesn't have the Democratic Party, it didn't have riots and hence no 'second wave'.

One thing I don't understand is that the worldmeter UK numbers, which cite UK government announcements, are higher than the numbers on this UK government site even though the overal curve looks similar.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
https://archive.vn/wip/yTfRa

 

[eternal dog mongler]

Texas is busy. Occupancy in the 80-90s isnt unusual where I am (uk.) it’s busy though, not collapsing. There is no need to panic, or worry unduly. Take the same precautions you would with a bad flu season.

90% is normal where I am. We hit 100% every once in a while so critical patients are boarded in the ED. It's not really unusual.

At this rate of hospitalizations though what we're facing is going to be unsustainable surge capacity.

 

[Billy_Sama]

Incidentally, US cases have gone up a bit since the riots. Which makes sense - black people are disproportionately affected by COVID and ecouraging them to riot means they're not social distancing. Presumably the Democrats, who suported both the lock down and the riots will start whining about a 'second wave' and use that as an excuse to re-lockdown. This will fuck the economy and make it more likely that incumbents lose in November. Plus of course the media is full of stories saying 'Trump supporters oppose BLM and hence are racists'.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
https://archive.vn/5w7S5

View attachment 1407544

Some sources the current outbreaks are tied to Memorial Day celebrations and gatherings that happened 4 weeks ago. If the outbreak trends are similar, the US has next or so to see the protest related infections to surge.

 

[Gustav Schuchardt]

Some sources the current outbreaks are tied to Memorial Day celebrations and gatherings that happened 4 weeks ago. If the outbreak trends are similar, the US has next or so to see the protest related infections to surge.

Hmm, interesting. The US is doing pretty well on testing too, so you might see an uptick in case numbers due to that

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing#world-map-total-tests-performed-relative-to-the-size-of-population

https://archive.vn/wip/N76Um

86 tests per 1000 inhabitants

Open public testing on demand

 

[Otterly]

At this rate of hospitalizations though what we're facing is going to be unsustainable surge capacity.

Are you seeing admissions increase to that amount? Do you think it’ll be sustained?

We’ve opened up cautiously and we aren’t seeing a spike so far. No deaths as far as I know in my authority yesterday and we are operating below capacity. Fewer than ten Covid patients in ICU in the county . It’s been a slow drop off.

Mind you we haven’t been rioting in the street like animals up here so your mileage may vary. People are starting to get back out into parks etc so we will see if it gets worse. The general feeling here is one that it may be on its way out for now. I wonder why the USA is so different?

 

[eternal dog mongler]

Are you seeing admissions increase to that amount? Do you think it’ll be sustained?

At this rate of hospitalizations, yeah. We'll be underwater in a week and then it's going to be a shitty free-for-all with patients.

We didn't experience a spike after Memorial Day or BLM protests. It's just normal day-to-day transmission here.

 

[Aria]

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1276541117887131649

BNO Newsroom on Twitter: "NEW: Florida reports record 8,942 new cases…

archived 26 Jun 2020 16:04:10 UTC

archive.li

 

[Quijibo69]

View attachment 1407936

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1276541117887131649

http://archive.md/dKKd0

It's maybe because people from other states came to Florida like a month ago.

 

[Return of the Freaker]

Does anyone still think the Virus was anything other than a deliberate attempt to shut down the US economy?

The lockdowns, the riots, the everything else - it's really been weighing on me. We went from stable government to complete fucking mess in the US overnight. US debt has climbed to over $26T - our nominal GDP is $20T - and there's a real chance the currency is going to be devalued. The United Nations cancelled it's September meeting for the first time in 75 years and the UNHRC is screaming about Antifa / law enforcement outcomes for African Americans despite only 20 Blacks dying since the riots started.

And now the World Economic Forum is calling for the Great Reset. One of the proposals is having the EU give 4% of GDP to fight coronavirus, which really means transfer wealth to poorer countries under a multinational flag.

https://archive.md/BgnyL

I could go on about 1300 CEOs resigning last year, the sanctions on China, and a whole lot more... but it feels like there's been an ongoing ideological subversion campaign.

Starting to lose faith in the future. This wasn't a virus, this was an attempt to destabilize the world order that's existed since WWII. And the elites - they are a bunch of fuckers who cannot be trusted. They're going to throw the world into madness.

This was the Chinese showing off their bio and information warfare while activating a ton of their sleeper cells, mostly in the US. It's all about retaliation for Trump not playing ball with the Great Proletarian Middle Kingdom and rushing forward plans to seize control elsewhere

 

[Otterly]

At this rate of hospitalizations, yeah. We'll be underwater in a week and then it's going to be a shitty free-for-all with patients.

We didn't experience a spike after Memorial Day or BLM protests. It's just normal day-to-day transmission here.

This is interesting. The USA is behind us on the curve i think. There are some thoughts that the epidemic had been going on in Europe since last year and we’d already passed the peak in April a few weeks before lockdown was started.
I know in sweden they’re seeing cases rise but no big rise in deaths, instead death rates gradually and slowly dropping. Same here.
The clinical impression here is that the disease is impacting less. Same in Italy - they’re seeing lower mortality even in high risk groups. What that means is difficult to say. Has everyone who would have died easily from it died? Is it under selection pressure from lockdown? I’m not sure.
It’s going to be interesting to reconstruct this with hindsight. As to why cases are still surging in the states I don’t know. You have vastly more ICU capacity than us. It’s that you are still in a different phase of the curve perhaps ?
Let’s hope you don’t exceed that surge capacity. We haven’t at any point so far, although it has been very busy, it’s been Manageable.

 

[Disco Inferno]

Well, here it is, folks. Straight from the horse's mouth. 120 million dead from COVID.

Can't believe I let Mr. Hallway McFingerfucker out-doom me. I must be slipping.

edited and misleading footage. The full quote says “Now we have over 120 million dead from COVID, I mean, 120,000 dead from COVID. And you have so many—now we’re past 2 million—I mean, and we’re talking about it like it’s over. I mean, it’s over. My god.”
proofs
For some reason, the video cuts out after he clearly says "i mean". I wonder why

 

[Cat Menagerie]

At this rate of hospitalizations, yeah. We'll be underwater in a week and then it's going to be a shitty free-for-all with patients.

We didn't experience a spike after Memorial Day or BLM protests. It's just normal day-to-day transmission here.

If Texas is going down I think our shitty hospitals may be in trouble in Oklahoma. Lots of travel between the two states and we're seeing huge upticks in places like McCurtain County, which is packed with Texans at Broken Bow Lake. I think the same is happening by Texoma. Plus, there's significant travel between Tulsa/OKC and Texas as well. At work I interact with Texans nearly every day.

We will be underwater before I expect our retard governor to act, though from what I'm hearing, your governor shut down bars today.

 

[FuckedUp]

Okay, pinky-swear this is my last post whining about academia for a while:

For all you who say "dude, it's COMPUTER science, it's literally DESIGNED to be online", let me explain why that's not the case...

Spoiler

Yes, programming assignments ARE done on a computer, obviously, but that's NOT all that's graded in CS classes. In the vast majority of CS classes, programming assignments make up at most 50% of the grade, VERY rarely weighted heavier than that.

You know what's weighted at least as much as programming assignments? Quizzes and tests. Done on paper in the classroom/lecture hall. Across all of my classes so far, CS quizzes and tests have consisted of:

• handwriting code
• questions asking what a snippet of code should output and/or what the final memory values should be
• floating-point arithmetic
• base conversion
• less technical questions like "which of the following is NOT a feature of functional programming languages?"
• others I can't remember

When the second half of the spring semester was put online, the exams were completely compromised. Everything could just be fed into a compiler, plugged into an online arithmetic tool (or Python script copy-pasted from Stack Overflow), or Googled. If my CS 101 class was online when I took it, I'm pretty sure most people would've gotten full credit on the problem where you had to handwrite a complete C program involving file I/O, instead of it being the curvesetter it was in reality.

As someone who was getting straight A's in those classes before spring, I'm pissed that it's basically all been for shit. Heh, thinking about it now, my situation is kind of a microcosm of the liberal agenda...

 

[feral cat #6385]

Everything could just be fed into a compiler, plugged into an online arithmetic tool (or Python script copy-pasted from Stack Overflow), or Googled.

How do you think you solve programming problems in the real world?

I have lots of copy pastaed functions from assorted google searches embedded in various programs. Reinventing the wheel is pointless and a waste of time and money.

 

[FuckedUp]

How do you think you solve programming problems in the real world?

I have lots of copy pastaed code from assorted google searches embedded in various programs. Reinventing the wheel is pointless and a waste of time and money.

You know someone had to write that code in the first place, right?

 

[feral cat #6385]

You know someone had to write that code in the first place, right?

So? What's your point? It's about saving time and money. Not an intellectual dick measuring contest.

Say I am building something to take data set X and do A B C and D to it to convert it to data set Z. Operations A C and D are business specific but I am reasonably sure someone else has solved for B. A query for B yields something that can be adapted. Therefore I have tried and tested code for B and only have to implement A C and D.

 

[NyQuilninja]

I'm just glad my state has finally decided to lift a lot of the restrictions going forward The 4th of July celebration at the Lake is on.
And I've been able to go to movie theaters and have dinner there. Things have been looking up

 

[Return of the Freaker]

I'm just glad my state has finally decided to lift a lot of the restrictions going forward Tje 4th of July celebration at the Lake is on.
And I've been able to go to movie theaters and have dinner there. Things have been looking up

Meanwhile my hypocrite NPC pals cancel us hanging out this week because "OMG there's a big spike its not safe to go out!" Our average age is 28 and these mouth breathers don't wear masks outside work even though they mindlessly follow every official demand otherwise and give me shit for not taking it deathly serious. God am I glad we're not in Michigan.

 

[mdrop22]

I'm just glad my state has finally decided to lift a lot of the restrictions going forward The 4th of July celebration at the Lake is on.
And I've been able to go to movie theaters and have dinner there. Things have been looking up

Same. My gym is finally open again. I went on the first day available. Theres like 20 people there at any given time. Fitness heaven. I hope the scared people stay home forever.

 

[JosephStalin]

Once again, folks, cases don't equate to hospitalizations, and hospitalizations don't equate to deaths. So when some asshole shoves case numbers in your face you can put things in perspective and set that Karen straight.

Sure would like to know the real case numbers from Russia and China. Am sure those numbers have been greatly understated. Every time I watch Russian car crash videos see all these apartment blocks, some huge, in the cities, and wonder just how fast the ChiCom Flu will spread.