China Floodwatch 2020-21 - Wuhan, Hubei/Henan Province is sinking and I dunno how to swim.

[mindlessobserver]

I don't know, this is a pretty hard one to joke about. 400,000,000 living downstream - a dam failure would literally be the worst thing that happened in the entire history of the human species. In a worst case scenario, the death toll might exceed all the deaths caused by World War 2, globally, over the 6 years of the war, in a matter of a week.

And only authoritarian Commies could set such a scenario up. But you are right, and so even though the Chicoms might deserve it their people dont. So I shall pray for China tonight.

The Naval Hymn is good for this. It's good for anyone facing the tribulation of water. I had my church do it the Sunday after the Japan Tsunami. It's pretty straight to the point.

 

[Shadfan666xxx000]

I don't know, this is a pretty hard one to joke about. 400,000,000 living downstream - a dam failure would literally be the worst thing that happened in the entire history of the human species. In a worst case scenario, the death toll might exceed all the deaths caused by World War 2, globally, over the 6 years of the war, in a matter of a week.

Fuck it, that's exactly why we need this shit to go down. This whole decade has been misfire after misfire of happenings for the past decade while everyone dies of a slow spiritual rot from boredom and decadence. Let it flood and unleash something for us to feel again, even if it's the sorrow, pain and guilt of a million lives snuffed out to the horror of billions.

 

[Kujo Jotaro]

The most fucked up part about china is that they have the natural resources needed to become a first world nation within their own borders. Their main issue is the govements inability to play the long game, they demand to be seen as a first world nation and so they rush projects in an effort to appear developed. In reality this only retards their long term growth more. If ever there was a nation that could be accused of larping as first world it would be china. Besides their retarded government they can't/won't stop breeding like roaches which introduces it's own logistical problems into the mix. Seriously, to put this in perspective the only reason Japan stood a (even if unreasonable) chance during ww2 was because they controlled a relatively small portion of china. If you can't make a first world nation out of a place like china your people are fucked on so many levels.

 

[tehpope]

If you see a photo or video on twitter, ARCHIVE IT FOR THE LOVE OF GOD!!!!! Twitter and youtube are both pro CCP and they will probably take down videos and photos sooner than later.

If you're getting a vid from twitter, use https://www.savetweetvid.com/ or another service. youtube-dl will download twitter videos too.

If you need something archived, post it. Someone will do it for you.

Spoiler: Archive of videos posted so far

 

[CockPockets]

If you want to see it live, here's a
3 Gorges Dam livestream

 

[tehpope]

Sorry for double posting, but here's all the videos since the 7th posted by Underground Silk. I don't think I could have posted all the videos in one post. Missing two vids, but they were posted above.

Spoiler: Oldest to Newest

 

[mindlessobserver]

I am going to historically sperg here for a second. Human Civilizations have "the mother rivers". The Nile, the Euphrates, The Tigris, the Indus, The Yangtze, and the Yellow.

All of these rivers also get ascribed a female personality based upon their behavior. The Nile is a benevolent sexy mother. Stern but Fair. It floods predictably and if you work with it, its the absolute best for running a civilization. A real loving mommy. The Tigris and the Euphrates are capricious bitches. They flood at random but when they do its not the end of the world. More like when your drunk girlfriend gets into a screaming match at you because you left the toilet seat up. Or else finds out you have been cheating on her. Because any civilization using them has to use both. The Indus is the boring housewife. Its as predictable as the Nile, but nowhere near as sexy.

All pretty good so far, but now we get to the Chinese rivers. The Yellow river is the totalitarian bitch wife. She floods at random, will cut your dick off in your sleep, but when she's in a good mood she lets you grow lots of wheat. The Yangtze though...the Yangtze is a psychopathic man hating lesbian. She doesn't just flood at random, she floods REPEATEDLY at random, and when she does its a disaster every time. She's not a wife, lover, or benevolent mother like the others. She's a hateful spirit that will kill you for the slightest insult.

And the brain trust at the CCP central committee decided this river out of all the others was just PERFECT for the largest hydro-engineering project in human history. A Real shame the Red Guards killed all the Yangtze Spirit priests off during the cultural revolution. They would have warned the fools of what would happen if they roused the goddess to anger, or worse, tried to put literal chains on her.

 

[Daddy's Little Kitten]

God really hates the chinks huh?

 

[he who has thus come/gone]

China is kinda stuck between a rock and a hard place right now. If they increase flow output, it will certainly cause major flooding downstream in places like Wuhan. If they maintain the 3GD how it is right now, it could end up collapsing the entire structure and gutting most of the Yangtze river valley, parts of the river upstream, and large parts of southern China. Likely why they've been intentionally breaking dams along the stream, flooding lesser known, lesser populated towns/cities to try and take the pressure off the 3GD for the moment. But you have to wonder whether severe flooding in Wuhan might be preferable to a collapse. I guess they've still got about 10 meters of water to try and work with, but all it takes is a dam collapse upstream or a geological event at the wrong place and wrong time to send ~170 m of water crashing into the Yangtze river basin.

This is so fucked for China. And while randoms on /pol/ are acting gleeful in the event it occurs, it would significantly affect the global economy—including pharmaceuticals and automotive parts. This is such a shitshow that it's preferable to flood hundreds of thousands of people's homes on purpose in an attempt to subvert the flooding of hundreds of millions of people's homes.

Two other points. 3GD might not flood tomorrow or this week, but the height of the rainy season seems to be in late July/early August. Even if they get out of the issue today, we could still see some catastrophe happen in the next month. Also, the issue is only going to get worse in the coming years. Rains will increase in this period, as they have been in recent years, if trends continue, and the 3GD is only going to be worn down even more. This is basically the worst ecological catastrophe waiting to happen—and it's near assured, as far as I can tell. China is fucked. Let's just hope they don't take down us as well.

 

[tehpope]

I don't know, this is a pretty hard one to joke about. 400,000,000 living downstream - a dam failure would literally be the worst thing that happened in the entire history of the human species. In a worst case scenario, the death toll might exceed all the deaths caused by World War 2, globally, over the 6 years of the war, in a matter of a week.

And if that happened, the media wouldn't say a goddamn thing. Trump might mention it. The media and their sycophants would dogpile him and say its a conspiracy.

God help us all.

 

[Jewelsmakerguy]

China is kinda stuck between a rock and a hard place right now. If they increase flow output, it will certainly cause major flooding downstream in places like Wuhan. If they maintain the 3GD how it is right now, it could end up collapsing the entire structure and gutting most of the Yangtze river valley, parts of the river upstream, and large parts of southern China. Likely why they've been intentionally breaking dams along the stream, flooding lesser known, lesser populated towns/cities to try and take the pressure off the 3GD for the moment. But you have to wonder whether severe flooding in Wuhan might be preferable to a collapse. I guess they've still got about 10 meters of water to try and work with, but all it takes is a dam collapse upstream or a geological event at the wrong place and wrong time to send ~170 m of water crashing into the Yangtze river basin.

This is so fucked for China. And while randoms on /pol/ are acting gleeful in the event it occurs, it would significantly affect the global economy—including pharmaceuticals and automotive parts. This is such a shitshow that it's preferable to flood hundreds of thousands of people's homes on purpose in an attempt to subvert the flooding of hundreds of millions of people's homes.

Two other points. 3GD might not flood tomorrow or this week, but the height of the rainy season seems to be in late July/early August. Even if they get out of the issue today, we could still see some catastrophe happen in the next month. Also, the issue is only going to get worse in the coming years. Rains will increase in this period, as they have been in recent years, if trends continue, and the 3GD is only going to be worn down even more. This is basically the worst ecological catastrophe waiting to happen—and it's near assured, as far as I can tell. China is fucked. Let's just hope they don't take down us as well.

/pol/'s full of Chinese-hating retards who'd rather see them all die than allow a single Chink to survive and not singling out the real perpetrators- the government itself.

 

[mindlessobserver]

China is kinda stuck between a rock and a hard place right now. If they increase flow output, it will certainly cause major flooding downstream in places like Wuhan. If they maintain the 3GD how it is right now, it could end up collapsing the entire structure and gutting most of the Yangtze river valley, parts of the river upstream, and large parts of southern China. Likely why they've been intentionally breaking dams along the stream, flooding lesser known, lesser populated towns/cities to try and take the pressure off the 3GD for the moment. But you have to wonder whether severe flooding in Wuhan might be preferable to a collapse. I guess they've still got about 10 meters of water to try and work with, but all it takes is a dam collapse upstream or a geological event at the wrong place and wrong time to send ~170 m of water crashing into the Yangtze river basin.

This is so fucked for China. And while randoms on /pol/ are acting gleeful in the event it occurs, it would significantly affect the global economy—including pharmaceuticals and automotive parts. This is such a shitshow that it's preferable to flood hundreds of thousands of people's homes on purpose in an attempt to subvert the flooding of hundreds of millions of people's homes.

Two other points. 3GD might not flood tomorrow or this week, but the height of the rainy season seems to be in late July/early August. Even if they get out of the issue today, we could still see some catastrophe happen in the next month. Also, the issue is only going to get worse in the coming years. Rains will increase in this period, as they have been in recent years, if trends continue, and the 3GD is only going to be worn down even more. This is basically the worst ecological catastrophe waiting to happen—and it's near assured, as far as I can tell. China is fucked. Let's just hope they don't take down us as well.

All the news reportings on this is saying that what is going on right now is moving very close to the STATED tolerance limits of the 3GD hydro-engineering complex. So we should be okay for now, but for the simple fact that China routinely lies about what its stuff can do vs. what it can actually do. All the Sattelite imagery of the major nodes shows significant warping of the structures. And the videos being shown of the runoff down the emergency sluices is not inspiring confidence either. That level of water weight is visually obvious of putting the entire system at its on paper designed tolerances. That water channel was barely holding the river to its desired path. Which means we are already at the point right now where any discrepancy between what it says it can do vs. what it can will have real consequences. Not a hydrolic engineer, but my lying eyes know a problem when they see it.

 

[Agent Abe Caprine]

I have been following this on /pol/ where they are on their 226th Three Gorges Dam general. I have never really browsed 4chan before this happening and despite wading through the shitposts and autism I am rather impressed with what they have put together. Tl'dr water levels are rising both above and below the dam. CCP has already dug canals and flooded entire villages to lower inflows. They will continue to discharge water, maintaining high outflows even though the river is flooding whole megacities, including Wuhan.

Spoiler

How /pol/ begins its tgdg threads

TGDG/ #226 - Kung Fu Groins, Meat Stick Loins Edition Anonymous (ID: D/omYv+1) 07/18/20(Sat)10:28:36 No.268501499▶
>>268501644 >>268501793 >>268502590 >>268506091 >>268507601 >>268507634
Previous >>268486946 → #

Summary:

BIG DAM IN CHINA
HOLD MANY WATER
NOT FOR LONG THO
LOL

>Sat pix reveal at least 56.57cm deflection along the length of TGD. >>268360292 → #

CURRENTLY FLOODED:
121 CITIES
39M+ PEOPLE

27 PROVINCES: https://twitter.com/dajiyuan/status/1280066458706423808
Shanghai flooded: https://twitter.com/Qiren2020/status/1280775813139320833

Southern China flooded, villages underwater

https://twitter.com/ttingxiao/status/1281239410650910722

Chongqing (upstream) bans flood videos:

https://twitter.com/skywalker_2k/status/1276646039685120002

DEPUTY WATER MINISTER TALKED ABOUT THE BLACK SWAN EVENT:

https://twitter.com/XinhuaFinancial/status/1275522290319491077

89b+ yuan loss & evacuation of millions:

Floods in China force evacuation of millions, cause 24.1b yuan loss

hk.appledaily.com

TGD capacity: 9% of a 100-year flood

Search Results for “capacity” – Probe International

Rethinking foreign aid, restoring accountability, reinvigorating economies

journal.probeinternational.org

HISTORICAL DATA, OTHER LINKS, & TRACKING SHEET:

https://pastebin.com/1jScrWCR

https://mega.nz/file/6woXEZiY#4p558ReqBe-Arx9xPV4NmFgS6_ZAgbk5_-ejOrKJiew (Updated 07.1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJn35MTKCNY [Embed]

OFFICIAL TGDG PLAYLIST:

/TGDG/ OFFICIAL PLAYLIST - Pastebin.com

Pastebin.com is the number one paste tool since 2002. Pastebin is a website where you can store text online for a set period of time.

pastebin.com

LIVE DATA SITES:

[Unreliable] Official CCP water level monitor: http://www.cjh.com.cn/swyb_sssq.html
[Unreliable] Three-Gorges Dam Livestream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6bLMHj14jM [Embed]

Marine:

https://www.marinetraffic.com/fr/ais/home/centerx:111.0/centery:30.8/zoom:11

https://www.vesselfinder.com/

Car/Ground:

https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/wuhan-traffic/

Weather:

Windy as forecasted

Wind map and weather forecast

www.windy.com

https://www.accuweather.com/en/cn/national/satellite

Yichang Historical Weather

Realtime weather, 14 day weather forecast, historical weather at Yichang Historical Weather

www.worldweatheronline.com

https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/cn/yichang

QRD: AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH

Here are a few numbers I'm tracking:

Wuhan has never seen the river get above 30m. They're at 28.36 currently.
TGD has withstood 175m levels previously. The dam is 185m high. 162.56 currently and that's up from the 150s just a few days prior.

Spoiler: Vertical profile TGD

View attachment 1456545

Spoiler: What would flood if TGD collapsed?

View attachment 1456531

Spoiler: At what point will Wuhan flood?

View attachment 1456538

Spoiler: Mother nature vs CCP

View attachment 1456598

Spoiler: Spoiler'd because of one portrait mode video

Use catch.tube if you don't want to install anything or are on mobile. Doesn't work with Twitch. Works with the other major stuff and most news websites.

Edit: Someone already did it. Recommendation is still relevent.

 

[he who has thus come/gone]

All the news reportings on this is saying that what is going on right now is moving very close to the STATED tolerance limits of the 3GD hydro-engineering complex. So we should be okay for now, but for the simple fact that China routinely lies about what its stuff can do vs. what it can actually do. All the Sattelite imagery of the major nodes shows significant warping of the structures. And the videos being shown of the runoff down the emergency sluices is not inspiring confidence either. That level of water weight is visually obvious of putting the entire system at its on paper designed tolerances. That water channel was barely holding the river to its desired path. Which means we are already at the point right now where any discrepancy between what it says it can do vs. what it can will have real consequences. Not a hydrolic engineer, but my lying eyes know a problem when they see it.

I would agree that we're looking at it approach the "stated" tolerances, but (1) as you say, the numbers and quality of workmanship they've reported are likely wrong to a non-insignificant degree and (2) their actions to try and relieve pressure on the 3GD screams that they know it's near breaking point. You don't start evacuating and flooding out hundreds of cities if the dam is just reaching its tolerance point. That's something you do when you know you're reaching critical levels of water buildup that can't be normally alleviated. I don't want to be a doomer about this, but clearly the CCP knows something about the truth of the situation that nobody else does. The best case scenario for the world is that the 3GD makes it through this season okay, the US brings back strategic industry, and the 3GD collapses at some point in the not-so-distant future. Unfortunately, it's near impossible to fix a faulty dam once it's put in place. Just look into the Mosul Dam and what they have to do to prevent that from collapsing.

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

Why wouldn't China sacrifice Wuhan? They already fucked with the city enough starting with sealing people in their houses and deporting COVID-19 patients to the "hospital". And it isn't like China doesn't have a history of fucking over their own people like that, like when they blew the dikes on the Huang He to slow down the Japanese advance in WWII and killed hundreds of thousands of people.

If they flood Wuhan then that just adds to the city's misery and probably anger over the CCP. It would be very ironic if the revolution to overthrow the CCP begins in Wuhan since that was the same place the revolution that overthrew imperial China began.

I don't know, this is a pretty hard one to joke about. 400,000,000 living downstream - a dam failure would literally be the worst thing that happened in the entire history of the human species. In a worst case scenario, the death toll might exceed all the deaths caused by World War 2, globally, over the 6 years of the war, in a matter of a week.

My numbers were off earlier about the people living downstream. 100 million is just the Yangtze Delta (Greater Shanghai and nearby cities) which is bad in of itself since the Yangtze Delta has a GDP of over 2 trillion (about 1/10 of China's GDP and about 3% of the entire world's GDP). The total number is something like 300-350 million people.

The Banqiao Dam disaster is illustrative what might happen. The CCP evacuates as much as they can and prioritizes certain areas over others. Some towns have almost no one dead, others have almost no one alive. Famine and plague follows and more die. The total amount killed is anywhere between 1-5% of those downstream so we're talking about 4 to 20 million dead.

That's a number likely to be equal or exceed total global deaths from COVID-19, an order of magnitude higher than the Banqiao Dam collapse (deadliest dam collapse in history). It will exceed the previous deadliest floods ever (which hit ALL China although Wuhan was also severely affected) and probably will top the list for deadliest natural disaster ever. Although it's not really natural since their poorly built dam killed millions more people than would otherwise die.

The worst part is the total destruction that will occur to all the industries there. This will fuck up world supply chains and send us straight into a depression. Nice job, China.

 

[Weppers]

All the news reportings on this is saying that what is going on right now is moving very close to the STATED tolerance limits of the 3GD hydro-engineering complex. So we should be okay for now, but for the simple fact that China routinely lies about what its stuff can do vs. what it can actually do. All the Sattelite imagery of the major nodes shows significant warping of the structures. And the videos being shown of the runoff down the emergency sluices is not inspiring confidence either. That level of water weight is visually obvious of putting the entire system at its on paper designed tolerances. That water channel was barely holding the river to its desired path. Which means we are already at the point right now where any discrepancy between what it says it can do vs. what it can will have real consequences. Not a hydrolic engineer, but my lying eyes know a problem when they see it.

The stuff about satellite images doesn't seem to be panning out. Most people are referring to one of two things that look wrong.

Number one is this:

Which was literally just Google Maps rendering the long straight line of the dam all fucky one day. If it looked like that from above in 2018, the concrete would have turned to taffy and failed long before this. This image made a lot of distinct appearances in my search, but it was always the exact same satellite photo with the same white turbulence on the water above and below the dam, rotated and zoomed and cropped every which way. No other image that I saw showed this kind of flexing of the dam. Sadly, this one is trash.

Number two is from this straighter line off a more recent satellite photo, again, from Google Maps.

That bright white line drawn over the pixels in the jpeg file is supposedly the intended line of the top edge of the dam. It is anchored on two reference points that are a thousand pixels out of frame on each end. There are some pixels under the bright white line in this image that are darker than you would expect them to be. A guy on 4chan is inferring a 0.5657m deflection from the straight line of the dam from those single pixels, from a jpeg file, streamed from Google Maps. That's not strong proof, either.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Just look into the Mosul Dam and what they have to do to prevent that from collapsing.

And the Mosul damn is on a river that is capricious but not a psychopathic bitch like the Yangtze. I remember when I was in Iraq that thing was always high on the "cold call the President" priorities if a unit ran into information pertaining to attacks on it. On the one hand, the Yangtze makes perfect sense for generating hydroelectric power. Its absolutely massive, both in size and speed compared to other rivers. But that same reason is also why it might have been better to leave well enough alone and built a nuclear power plant instead.

 

[Atomic Wangler]

China is kinda stuck between a rock and a hard place right now. If they increase flow output, it will certainly cause major flooding downstream in places like Wuhan. If they maintain the 3GD how it is right now, it could end up collapsing the entire structure and gutting most of the Yangtze river valley, parts of the river upstream, and large parts of southern China. Likely why they've been intentionally breaking dams along the stream, flooding lesser known, lesser populated towns/cities to try and take the pressure off the 3GD for the moment. But you have to wonder whether severe flooding in Wuhan might be preferable to a collapse. I guess they've still got about 10 meters of water to try and work with, but all it takes is a dam collapse upstream or a geological event at the wrong place and wrong time to send ~170 m of water crashing into the Yangtze river basin.

This is so fucked for China. And while randoms on /pol/ are acting gleeful in the event it occurs, it would significantly affect the global economy—including pharmaceuticals and automotive parts. This is such a shitshow that it's preferable to flood hundreds of thousands of people's homes on purpose in an attempt to subvert the flooding of hundreds of millions of people's homes.

Two other points. 3GD might not flood tomorrow or this week, but the height of the rainy season seems to be in late July/early August. Even if they get out of the issue today, we could still see some catastrophe happen in the next month. Also, the issue is only going to get worse in the coming years. Rains will increase in this period, as they have been in recent years, if trends continue, and the 3GD is only going to be worn down even more. This is basically the worst ecological catastrophe waiting to happen—and it's near assured, as far as I can tell. China is fucked. Let's just hope they don't take down us as well.

True enough about the economic damage a massive flood will do, but that is a bandage that will have to come off sooner or later. A bunch of countries had been evaluating alternate options for supply chains, so now may be as good a time as any for the CCP to take a long deserved L.

 

[Observerer]

In any other part of the world, I would have felt sorry for the people, but I have experienced the spectacle that is "Chinese tourists" too many times so I am cheering for team Yangtze.

 

[Gender of peace]

In addition to the humanitarian nightmare and supply chain clusterfuck: how do you think dam failure will feed into geopolitics?

I would expect that China will almost immediately look to shift blame on an external foe in order to save face. US and India seem the most likely scapegoats. China officials have already tried to blame US for the WuFlu so it would be straightforward for them to extend that to TGD. And China's skirmish on the Indian border presents an equally convenient narrative of sabotage by a regional rival. This sounds like a recipe for whipping the Chinese into a war frenzy, a desperate attempt to maintain national unity.

Could also accelerate China's expansionism e.g. seizure of the South China Sea, Taiwan and Hong Kong, dam building and river redirection in the Himalayas to fuck over South Asia, etc.