China Floodwatch 2020-21 - Wuhan, Hubei/Henan Province is sinking and I dunno how to swim.

[thx1138]

I am going to historically sperg here for a second. Human Civilizations have "the mother rivers". The Nile, the Euphrates, The Tigris, the Indus, The Yangtze, and the Yellow.

All of these rivers also get ascribed a female personality based upon their behavior. The Nile is a benevolent sexy mother. Stern but Fair. It floods predictably and if you work with it, its the absolute best for running a civilization. A real loving mommy. The Tigris and the Euphrates are capricious bitches. They flood at random but when they do its not the end of the world. More like when your drunk girlfriend gets into a screaming match at you because you left the toilet seat up. Or else finds out you have been cheating on her. Because any civilization using them has to use both. The Indus is the boring housewife. Its as predictable as the Nile, but nowhere near as sexy.

All pretty good so far, but now we get to the Chinese rivers. The Yellow river is the totalitarian bitch wife. She floods at random, will cut your dick off in your sleep, but when she's in a good mood she lets you grow lots of wheat. The Yangtze though...the Yangtze is a psychopathic man hating lesbian. She doesn't just flood at random, she floods REPEATEDLY at random, and when she does its a disaster every time. She's not a wife, lover, or benevolent mother like the others. She's a hateful spirit that will kill you for the slightest insult.

And the brain trust at the CCP central committee decided this river out of all the others was just PERFECT for the largest hydro-engineering project in human history. A Real shame the Red Guards killed all the Yangtze Spirit priests off during the cultural revolution. They would have warned the fools of what would happen if they roused the goddess to anger, or worse, tried to put literal chains on her.

As an aside, how would you rate the Mississippi in this analogy?

 

[XYZpdq]

/pol/ managed to crowdfund some current satellite time going as far as faking being a chinese based corp or something and got some up-to-date pics.

oh, internet, you so internet

 

[I can't imagine]

Control flooding.

I mean, it's looking pretty likely that the "control flooding" will put a large chunk of Wuhan in a couple meters of water, and there's still days of rain to come. If that's your idea of "nothing to worry about", I'd hate to see what you'd find mildly concerning.

 

[Otterly]

Control flooding.

Yes it does seem well controlled. Wuhan in particular has been flooded very neatly

 

[HumanHive]

I mean, it's looking pretty likely that the "control flooding" will put a large chunk of Wuhan in a couple meters of water, and there's still days of rain to come. If that's your idea of "nothing to worry about", I'd hate to see what you'd find mildly concerning.

Stop listening to Qtards.

 

[Gender of peace]

This is completely normal, nothing is wrong.
What we should really be concerned about are the dams along the Columbia river; which are old, unsafe, and cause untold environmental damage. America should have removed them years ago.

No, unfortunately, the rise in reservoir levels in recent days is unprecedented. This plot compares TGD reservoir levels 2013-2020. Every year you have the same drawdown in spring to prepare for the rainy season and in wet years you can observe those spikes during summer, flood control in action. However, only one of those years cracked 160m and that level occurred later in the season and quickly receded. Compare that to the blue line for 2020. Never has the reservoir been so full so early. Given the ongoing deluge I fully expect this level to continue to rise in the coming days even as outflows increase, flooding downstream areas. Scary.

 

[RodgerDodger]

I hope everyone brought there swim fins

 

[Otterly]

No, unfortunately, the rise in reservoir levels in recent days is unprecedented. This plot compares TGD reservoir levels 2013-2020. Every year you have the same drawdown in spring to prepare for the rainy season and in wet years you can observe those spikes during summer, flood control in action. However, only one of those years cracked 160m and that level occurred later in the season and quickly receded. Compare that to the blue line for 2020. Never has the reservoir been so full so early. Given the ongoing deluge I fully expect this level to continue to rise in the coming days even as outflows increase, flooding downstream areas. Scary.

View attachment 1457951

So this shows them lowering the level in spring to control the summer floods then levels go back up in winter presumably for power generation?
What do the two horizontal lines Signify?
It’s a way off that top level it reaches in winter - this may be a dumb question but the level should be able to reach that top flat bit of the curve and stay within tolerance?
how much more rise would be needed for it to hit failure? What is failure level? I know it tops off at 185 or somethin

 

[Niggernerd]

Good

 

[John_Smith]

As an aside, how would you rate the Mississippi in this analogy?

The Mississippi is the Father of Waters ( or so the name translates). The American Indians who lived along the river certainly did not think of it as female. They practiced agriculture like the other civilizations, but only recently are archeologists finding evidence of a city, Cahokia (as it is called now. Its original name is unknown). Why the inhabitants did not sustain or grow their civilization, like the Mesopotamians et al, who knows?

Strangely relevant reading would be the theories about the formation of the English Channel, and of the Channeled Scablands. The links are for the wikipedia, as a start.

Floodwaters from a burst TGD would scour everything from the land. The results would most certainly be visible from satellite imagery.

 

[Dreamer]

This is completely normal, nothing is wrong.
What we should really be concerned about are the dams along the Columbia river; which are old, unsafe, and cause untold environmental damage. America should have removed them years ago.

Control flooding.

HumanHive i'm pretty sure you're just LARPing as a CCP official.

I would expect that China will almost immediately look to shift blame on an external foe in order to save face. US and India seem the most likely scapegoats. China officials have already tried to blame US for the WuFlu so it would be straightforward for them to extend that to TGD. And China's skirmish on the Indian border presents an equally convenient narrative of sabotage by a regional rival. This sounds like a recipe for whipping the Chinese into a war frenzy, a desperate attempt to maintain national unity.

Could also accelerate China's expansionism e.g. seizure of the South China Sea, Taiwan and Hong Kong, dam building and river redirection in the Himalayas to fuck over South Asia, etc.

They will most likely try to blame it on an outside force, probably india since they've been having a few "disagreements" about borders with them lately
If it doesn't stick CCPs tried and true tactic is just finding a internal scapegoat, that's what they're going to do if they're smart
It most likely wont accelerate anything since their claims are built on lies anyway
Then again, it might push them to make good on their promises of making "one china" so who knows

 

[гape]

we get surveillance videos of chinamen being crushed inside industrial machines every day, we got that video of the livestreamer getting disintegrated in the tianjin chemical plant explosion, we got the videos of people getting stuffed in corona cubes, that dam footage is gonna make it over the firewall, and its gonna have shitty chinese music blaring over it

 

[Toolbox]

that dam footage is gonna make it over the firewall, and its gonna have shitty chinese music blaring over it

And I think I know the exact track.

Spoiler: Xiao Pao Pao

 

[tehpope]

I hope everyone brought there swim fins

 

[BeboRefugee]

Spoiler: Spoiler'd because of one portrait mode video

View attachment 1457650
View attachment 1457653
View attachment 1457659

Use catch.tube if you don't want to install anything or are on mobile. Doesn't work with Twitch. Works with the other major stuff and most news websites.

Edit: Someone already did it. Recommendation is still relevent.

Whatever happened to this style of journalism? I remember being younger and there being all sorts of news reports and documentaries concerning the developing world, and detailing the issues around corruption, deregulation and poverty in a frank way. The shows weren't western chauvinists, they were just stating facts.

I get the feeling a lot of Milennials and Zoomers have rose-tinted glasses for countries which (for all but the ruling class) are pretty woeful places to live, because they aren't given the perspective of such documentaries anymore. All the attention is on the massive public works projects, neon lights, and footage handcrafted by said state's propaganda arm.
Wuhan coronavirus is the first time in a long time they had to zero in on the living conditions of people that actually have to deal with such regimes day-to-day, and on that front the citizen journalists beat everybody else to it

 

[Syaoran Li]

Nothing is wrong with the Three Gorges Dam. Similar flooding occurred last year.

OK ChiCom

You might want to tell Chairman Winnie the Pooh that the CCP has pretty much lost the Mandate of Heaven at this point and that when Xi Jinping gets to Hell, he should tell Mao that the Yangtze River spirits sent him.

 

[Dreamer]

Whatever happened to this style of journalism? I remember being younger and there being all sorts of news reports and documentaries concerning the developing world, and detailing the issues around corruption, deregulation and poverty in a frank way. The shows weren't western chauvinists, they were just stating facts.

There was a change of focus, media started zeroing in on social issues since that's what got more traction.
Journalism used to be an actual job but nowadays its to easily faked by bloggers reading articles form other bloggers.
Internet also demands a much faster pace from news outlets so instead of getting a quality article every 2 days you get a tumblr-tier update every 2 hours, just to keep you vaguely interested and to scam you into viewing more adds.
That said those documentaries you speak of are still being made, its just that they're being overshadowed by people screaming about politics.

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

The Mississippi is the Father of Waters ( or so the name translates). The American Indians who lived along the river certainly did not think of it as female. They practiced agriculture like the other civilizations, but only recently are archeologists finding evidence of a city, Cahokia (as it is called now. Its original name is unknown). Why the inhabitants did not sustain or grow their civilization, like the Mesopotamians et al, who knows?

Because they'd literally just invented agriculture about a thousand years before the white man showed up. Or at least agriculture that was any useless. A couple of their mounds I'm pretty sure have been rekt over the years by flooding, some recently. But forget them, don't fuck with the Mississippi. Go ask Cairo ("Kay-Roh") Illinois which is surrounded by giant-ass levees. Or go to Louisiana and look at all the flood control structures. The Mississippi River drains like 2/3 of the US and is full of mud and dirt and has been fighting the Army Corps of Engineers for centuries and mostly winning.

 

[Super-Chevy454]

True enough about the economic damage a massive flood will do, but that is a bandage that will have to come off sooner or later. A bunch of countries had been evaluating alternate options for supply chains, so now may be as good a time as any for the CCP to take a long deserved L.

Yeah, there's some supply chains in Vietnam, Thailand, India and some even returned to Mexico.

we get surveillance videos of chinamen being crushed inside industrial machines every day, we got that video of the livestreamer getting disintegrated in the tianjin chemical plant explosion, we got the videos of people getting stuffed in corona cubes, that dam footage is gonna make it over the firewall, and its gonna have shitty chinese music blaring over it

Is it shitty as the Hong Kong '97 theme song?

 

[Gender of peace]

So this shows them lowering the level in spring to control the summer floods then levels go back up in winter presumably for power generation?
What do the two horizontal lines Signify?
It’s a way off that top level it reaches in winter - this may be a dumb question but the level should be able to reach that top flat bit of the curve and stay within tolerance?
how much more rise would be needed for it to hit failure? What is failure level? I know it tops off at 185 or somethin

As indicated in the legend, the lower line shows the rainy season high over the 2013-2020 period, just over 160m, which was included to demonstrate we are well outside of normal conditions. The upper line marks 170m, a guesstimate of the safe upper limit during the rainy season. This is lower than 175ish because rapid inflows put additional pressure on the dam. The true failure level is either unknown or a state secret. CCP originally proclaimed TGD could withstand a 10k year flood but that was quietly revised to 1000 and then 100 year flood. If water is overtopping the dam (185m), it will fail. That much is certain. And many, many places will be sacrificed before that occurs.

True, we have a ways to go before hitting 170. However, the rate of change over the last few days gives cause for concern. Yesterday, the level was 162.56m. Today it is 164.13m. I'm not sure how frequently these data are updated (hourly? Twice daily?) but the data source (also used in the figure posted above) is:

http://www.cjh.com.cn/swyb_sssq.html

Spoiler: English translation of CCP water level monitoring locations

As you check this, keep an eye on not only TGD level but inflows and outflows. As long as in > out the reservoir will continue to rise. Also watch the Hankou location. This is the monitoring station at Wuhan, located downstream of TGD. That monitoring station recorded 28.36m yesterday. Today it's 28.51m. Historic high is 29.73m. I believe the riverside embankment in Wuhan is around 32ish? Idk but once water overtops that embankment, several stories will be flooded as mean elevation in Wuhan is 21-27m.