China Floodwatch 2020-21 - Wuhan, Hubei/Henan Province is sinking and I dunno how to swim.

[Badungus Kabungus]

There's some interesting reading about the Sky River project out there. Makes me think it's possible this could be the result of a failed weather control experiment. As in, their idea to use "atmospheric rivers" to deliver water via rain to the Tibetan plateau backfired and instead caused a series of storms to move to the Yangtze basin.

China’s scientific community confronts ‘rogue science’

Fears are growing in China over lack of oversight and transparency for major weather modification project in Tibet and other boundary-pushing projects

www.thethirdpole.net

http://archive.vn/jiKyZ

Spoiler

To avoid the hassle of moving water on land, scientists have looked to the sky for inspiration. The “Sky River” project is considered part of the third route, except the water transfer would happen in the atmosphere, rather than through canals.

Back in the early 1990s, MIT scientists used the concept of “atmospheric rivers” to describe water vapour transport bands they identified in the troposphere. China’s Sky River project proposes large-scale manipulation of these bands of water vapour using cloud-seeding techniques that could manufacture rainfall.

According to Wang Guangqian, president of Qinghai University and the leader of the Sky River team, the project seeks to increase rainfall at the headwaters of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers where “cloud resources are abundant”. Without intervention, these weather systems would typically move to the southern Yangtze basin where rainfall would naturally occur. By cutting off the migration of rain clouds in the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau using cloud-seeding, the team hypothesises they could supplement the flow of the northern Yellow River.

 

[I can't imagine]

There's some interesting reading about the Sky River project out there. Makes me think it's possible this could be the result of a failed weather control experiment. As in, their idea to use "atmospheric rivers" to deliver water via rain to the Tibetan plateau backfired and instead caused a series of storms to move to the Yangtze basin.

China’s scientific community confronts ‘rogue science’

Fears are growing in China over lack of oversight and transparency for major weather modification project in Tibet and other boundary-pushing projects

www.thethirdpole.net

http://archive.vn/jiKyZ

Spoiler

To avoid the hassle of moving water on land, scientists have looked to the sky for inspiration. The “Sky River” project is considered part of the third route, except the water transfer would happen in the atmosphere, rather than through canals.

Back in the early 1990s, MIT scientists used the concept of “atmospheric rivers” to describe water vapour transport bands they identified in the troposphere. China’s Sky River project proposes large-scale manipulation of these bands of water vapour using cloud-seeding techniques that could manufacture rainfall.

According to Wang Guangqian, president of Qinghai University and the leader of the Sky River team, the project seeks to increase rainfall at the headwaters of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers where “cloud resources are abundant”. Without intervention, these weather systems would typically move to the southern Yangtze basin where rainfall would naturally occur. By cutting off the migration of rain clouds in the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau using cloud-seeding, the team hypothesises they could supplement the flow of the northern Yellow River.

I'll admit I don't know anything about weather manipulation, but massive rainfalls leading to the Yangtze flooding doesn't exactly require any kind of government intervention; Mother Nature does that pretty well on her own. But hey, it would be pretty typical of the CCP to defy nature and the gods and manage to make a naturally-occurring problem even worse.

 

[Syaoran Li]

So what are the odds that the Three Gorges Dam survives this flood, either because the construction was sufficient or sheer luck, and that gets the Chinese complacent and thinking they can go for cheaper maintenance, and then 15-20 years when the next flood this size comes through, the whole thing collapses?

Huh, sounds like SARS vs COVID-19.

Not to sound like an optimist, but I think it'll be a bona fide miracle if 2020 ends with the Three Gorges Dam still intact but if it does somehow survive, I think it'll burst the next time they get a very bad rain season.

Given how much of a complete disaster this year has been for pretty much the entire world, I think this is going to be the big one.

How long does the average rain season last in Southern China anyway? If this shit continues all through July and keeps up in August, then the 3GD will burst and likely take the CCP's ambitions with it.

Isn't most of China's industrial and economic base in Southern China?

 

[Jimmy Durante's Ballsack]

How long does the average rain season last in Southern China anyway?

At least into August but possibly even into September if it is an especially wet season.

 

[Atomic Wangler]

Also, here's a link for tracking weather and rainfall in the area. I'm seeing some substantial rainfall coming on Saturday the 25th.

https://www.windy.com/30.824/111.004?gfs,rain,30.529,111.003,9

 

[Kornheiser]

How bad will the destruction be if the dam fails? I know it would kill tons of people but the economic damage is more fascinating and how will the Chicoms react to the aftermath.

 

[tehpope]

How bad will the destruction be if the dam fails? I know it would kill tons of people but the economic damage is more fascinating and how will the Chicoms react to the aftermath.

The population down river from the Dam is around the size of the USA plus some. Someone in the thread said 400 million. Also, tons of manufactoring happens down river. Including the making of most of the world's supply of antibiotics. This could also fuck up neighboring countries due to infux of water. The dam itself was built on top of the river bed, not into it.

Worse case senario could be the death toll near WWII numbers, the high ones (ie ~80 million). In China alone. Also the world's economy crashes because everyone had their eggs in one basket in Wuhan and surrounding areas. The total deaths in WWII happened over 6 years. This would be in a week or so. So possibly the worst modern disaster ever.

This is based on info in this thread.

 

[Jimmy Durante's Ballsack]

Also, here's a link for tracking weather and rainfall in the area. I'm seeing some substantial rainfall coming on Saturday the 25th.

https://www.windy.com/30.824/111.004?gfs,rain,30.529,111.003,9

Insane. It will take at least a week for the region to drain down to the main basins and they're all already saturated and overflowing as it is.

 

[Shadfan666xxx000]

Really, just ask Memphis. I said in the riots thread when people were protesting on the freaking Mississippi Bridge that if anyone fell, rescuers would be hard-pressed to find them alive (or at all really) since it moved so quickly.

And Memphis is exceptionally lucky thanks to the bluff. Meanwhile, the county in Arkansas immediately across from it has horribly drowned multiple times over the past 200 years which is why growth centered on Memphis will typically spread everywhere but west and even when it goes west, the buildup won't ever show up on that shore.

 

[Syaoran Li]

How bad will the destruction be if the dam fails? I know it would kill tons of people but the economic damage is more fascinating and how will the Chicoms react to the aftermath.

Very bad, most likely.

IIRC, most of the industrial powerhouse cities are in Southern China and the 3GD bursting take out most of China's manufacturing sector, to say nothing of the economic effects that the death toll and environmental damage alone would cause.

Worst-case scenario, it will end the CCP's rule completely or at least lead to a coup against Xi as the CCP will need a scapegoat and the economic effects cascade across the entire world and we will see major shortages for quite a while.

Best-case scenario, it economically cripples China for decades and probably ends their ambition of being a superpower and this could worsen for both the Chinese government and American corporate elites if Trump wins a second term and continues his trade war

 

[I can't imagine]

Insane. It will take at least a week for the region to drain down to the main basins and they're all already saturated and overflowing as it is.

It also looks like the areas to the south and downriver are currently getting some solid rains themselves, which won't help with the drainage either.

 

[tehpope]

If the dam fails catastrophically and we get video this is the only music acceptable to play over it

You didn't chose this?

 

[Atomic Wangler]

Very bad, most likely.

IIRC, most of the industrial powerhouse cities are in Southern China and the 3GD bursting take out most of China's manufacturing sector, to say nothing of the economic effects that the death toll and environmental damage alone would cause.

Worst-case scenario, it will end the CCP's rule completely or at least lead to a coup against Xi as the CCP will need a scapegoat and the economic effects cascade across the entire world and we will see major shortages for quite a while.

Best-case scenario, it economically cripples China for decades and probably ends their ambition of being a superpower and this could worsen for both the Chinese government and American corporate elites if Trump wins a second term and continues his trade war

That's all assuming TGD breaks. Even with where we're at this is a major happening. 121 cities flooded, 27 out of 31 provinces have been flooded, tens of millions displaced if not outright dead, and their breadbasket underwater.

That's not even counting the other non-flood related shit. Much of China's gold reserve was found to be fake, so now the whole thing has to be auditted. The US has removed Hong Kong's special treatment because Xi couldn't leave well enough alone. CCP officials had assets frozen and travel restrictions put in place by America for taking part in human rights violations against Tibetans and Uyghurs, which affected several companies that were effectively CCP fronts. There have been runs on Chinese banks that caused the CCP to nationalize them to prevent a depression, but that is seemingly going to happen anyway.

People can meme all day about how America is totally done for and will balkanize (even though nobody can explain what areas would split away, or how this wouldn't be resolved with federal force or take care of itself within a week), but I honestly don't know if China will be around as a singular entity by the end of the decade.

Edit:
Oh, and the US has rejected China's claims to the South China Sea and has carrier groups in the area along with a coalition of local nations to actually enforce that. Chinese Century cancelled.

 

[Vince McMahon]

This is completely normal, nothing is wrong.
What we should really be concerned about are the dams along the Columbia river; which are old, unsafe, and cause untold environmental damage. America should have removed them years ago.

懒惰的工作，同志。从你的账户里扣了五毛钱。

 

[Bob's Fries]

That's all assuming TGD breaks. Even with where we're at this is a major happening. 121 cities flooded, 27 out of 31 provinces have been flooded, tens of millions displaced if not outright dead, and their breadbasket underwater.

That's not even counting the other non-flood related shit. Much of China's gold reserve was found to be fake, so now the whole thing has to be auditted. The US has removed Hong Kong's special treatment because Xi couldn't leave well enough alone. CCP officials had assets frozen and travel restrictions put in place by America for taking part in human rights violations against Tibetans and Uyghurs, which affected several companies that were effectively CCP fronts. There have been runs on Chinese banks that caused the CCP to nationalize them to prevent a depression, but that is seemingly going to happen anyway.

People can meme all day about how America is totally done for and will balkanize (even though nobody can explain what areas would split away, or how this wouldn't be resolved with federal force or take care of itself within a week), but I honestly don't know if China will be around as a singular entity by the end of the decade.

We'll find out soon enough. But I'm certain it's clear to most of us that it'll be a coup and the Three Kingdoms/Middle East Warlord-ism Zhongguo Edition all over again. There is absolutely no way the Chinese people will rise up on their own. The level of technology for surveillance squashed all hopes for that.

The whole "To Be Rich Is Glorious" shtick kinda helped to kill that off.

 

[Super-Chevy454]

Isn't most of China's industrial and economic base in Southern China?

There was a time when China's industrial base was in Manchuria and it's now China's counterpart of the Rust Belt. https://www.citymetric.com/business/make-manchuria-great-again-can-china-s-rust-belt-be-revived-3384

http://archive.vn/lgE98

In 1949, Mao gave China First the role of making China great again from its base in North East China. Ignoring his Soviet advisors, Mao believed that China’s path to prosperity was through heavy industry: that meant building on the industrial base left by the Japanese Empire in Manchuria.

For decades, China First and similar state-owned companies provided secure, well-paid employment to Manchurian workers whose ‘Iron Rice Bowl’ was the envy of the nation. Many of China First’s early recruits were still working there in the 1990s.

Today, things don’t look so good. After a decade of lay-offs, its losses are still growing, and stood at $850m last year. Chairman Wu was found hanged in his office during a corruption investigation in 2015. While the region’s GDP per capita is about average for China, it is in relative decline. In 1978, China’s north east provinces of Liaoning, Heilongjiang and Jilin were the 4th, 5th and 8th richest. Now they are 14th,21st and 12th. What’s gone wrong?

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

Where are you getting 400 million downstream? I think it's something like 280-300 million downstream (adding up the provinces and prefectures along the Yangtze downstream from the Three Gorges Dam), which is still obviously bad, especially because it includes Shanghai and the Yangtze Delta (100 million people and 3% of the global GDP).

 

[Quijibo69]

The lord works in magical ways.

 

[whatever I feel like]

Southern China is mountainous, they don't all live next to the river.

 

[I am the Muffin Maker]

All I know is that even Mao Zedong will kick Xi's ass in Hell when he gets there because of shit like this.

Xi Jinping takes control of a budding superpower that's primed to become the dominant nation on Earth and he might end up pissing it all away because of his own arrogance and hubris. It's like something out of a Greek tragedy...

Once the dam really does burst, China is perma-fucked and the CCP will no longer be the force they are in world politics. If Trump pulls it off and ends up winning a second term and ramping up the trade war, it would be the cherry on top.

It was pure hubris to build the thing in the first place. Why build something that any SuperPower with an ICBM can take out and really ruin your day?

anyway, came here to post this:

Satellite images show Three Gorges Dam opening all floodgates | Taiwan News

Retired Indian Colonel alleges dam's floodgates intentionally opened early

www.taiwannews.com.tw

Will delete if already in the thread.

The population down river from the Dam is around the size of the USA plus some. Someone in the thread said 400 million. Also, tons of manufactoring happens down river. Including the making of most of the world's supply of antibiotics. This could also fuck up neighboring countries due to infux of water. The dam itself was built on top of the river bed, not into it.

Worse case senario could be the death toll near WWII numbers, the high ones (ie ~80 million). In China alone. Also the world's economy crashes because everyone had their eggs in one basket in Wuhan and surrounding areas. The total deaths in WWII happened over 6 years. This would be in a week or so. So possibly the worst modern disaster ever.

This is based on info in this thread.

Don't forget the 15 (sorry that number is: 25 nuclear power plants in the direct path, another 15 nuclear reactors along the river). Seriously this would be the worst ecological disaster ever in human history short of the biblical flood.