In the case of COVID, it's pretty obvious, since he literally describes acute global pandemic as being a White Swan event in his book. Pandemics are inevitable, even if you don't know the exact disease, and it's entirely possible to plan a response to them. The dam is arguably the same situation; it's definitely possible that a dam can fail, and it's definitely possible to develop a plan for what to do when it happens.
The Floyd protests are a little messier, since the circumstances preceding them made rioting something that was entirely possible (some of us, self included, had been mentioning it in the COVID thread as far back as April), but I don't think the exact way things went down was predictable at all. Rioting, sure, but the statues getting taken down, the TV shows getting censored, every corporation on the planet seemingly pledging their support? Not even kinda how I would've expected the lockdown rioting to turn out. I'd say it's the closest of the three.
