2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

[heyitsmike]

This is more important than people realize, certainly more than Ted Wheeler showing his abject ignorance towards doing his job and protecting RainbowLand in a state that will likely stay blue.

Ouch. Does Ted Wheeler know you feel that way? You should tell him. I think he'll be up late tonight lol.

Edit: Bwahahaha!

 

[Cubanodun]

Ouch. Does Ted Wheeler know you feel that way? You should tell him. I think he'll be up late tonight lol.
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Imagine they kick him out and out of sheer spite people put a republican, someone that is going to be willing to bring federal forces to bring them down

 

[Someone Awful]

The real crown jewel remains California though. That State has been taken for granted by the Democrats for decades now and it is showing for it. Lots of Republican voters historically dont even bother, but with how agitated things are right now it may very well be in play. If Minnesota is turning red, pretty much anything that is not Oregon and Washington could be fair game. Like New York too since we are on the subject.

We need a decisive victory here to avert social catastrophe. Biden certainly wont deliver it. If he wins it will be by a frighteningly narrow margin. Only trump seems to have the energy behind him to actually ram home a landslide necessary to establish his mandate beyond all doubt. Holding his previous wins and adding Minnesota, New York and California to them would do that.

We can dream.

California is not flipping. It is literally the bluest state in the country. While technically Hawaii has a higher percentage of voters, it could turn red if Asian American become Republican-leaning again and whites become more conservative and there are less voters there. That's already a hard task.

Now imagine flipping California. That state's political alignment is like the night sky. Not only does the Hispanic plurality and the large Asian minority need to start becoming purple voters, you also have to change the culture of the cities to where Republicans can take control of it again. While Kamala Harris will certainly drive out more Republican voters, it will not close the gap enough to turn the state red. It will take decades of all-out efforts by the Republican party - which is weak in there - to turn the state back red. Frankly, Oregon has a better shot of turning red since at least the backlash to the Portland riots - including Wheeler's exceptional rejection of Trump's offer to help - will get quite a few complacent voters to show up.

I don't see a lot of pick up opportunities for Trump to be honest. Minnesota, sure. Nevada, Oregon, and Virginia, maybe. New Hampshire and Maine? Unlikely. I don't see anything else. He needs to focus more on keeping the states he has - especially Florida, Arizona, and Wisconsin - than anything. His best bet is to plant the seed for potential pickups in future elections for GOP like what Democrats do.

It's important to address this, but people who are hoping to flip states like Oregon, Washington, California, and New York need to do what has been done in the Midwest and gradually infiltrate left-wing states and cities. We cannot, and should not, expect solid blue states that score double digits to turn red on a dime. It took decades of efforts to flip states like Virginia and Colorado blue and the same goes for vice versa. Unfortunately, our country is increasingly becoming urbanized, and that plays into the favor of Democrats who have control of these cities. A Trump re-election is not time for complacency, but to start figuring out a plan for how Republicans can take the cities back to being purple or even red.

To do this, we need to focus on taking back the culture from the far left and providing more palatable alternatives that can stand up to any and all suppression it will face. That will take a lifetime of effort. Trump's re-election - much as I respect the man - serves only to buy time before the inevitable next Democratic administration. Our fight doesn't end with a Trump victory but rather just begins. The big difference is that a Trump administration won't drive us underground for dissent.

I'd like to make a request: once we get the results after election day, run this same analysis on those counties again, and see how this region came out. Tack it on to this thread if we don't make another place to analyze results.

There's a handful of swing regions like this that I'm tracking, and whether Trump wins or loses, looking at all of them will tell an interesting story of where the nation is going.

Definitely. Aside from the Arrowhead Region, what other swing regions are you looking at?

I also think we need to track states that will almost certainly not flip but could significantly swing to the opposite party. Texas will almost certainly stay red but it has been tracking blue in recent elections. Likewise, we saw a significant shift in the Northeast towards Republicans but only Pennsylvania and the second congressional district of Maine flipped red. Unfortunately, I'm not optimistic on Trump making any pick ups aside from Minnesota and I am concerned he will lose ground in the Northeast even with all of the New York pandering he's done.

 

[heyitsmike]

Imagine they kick him out and out of sheer spite people put a republican, someone that is going to be willing to bring federal forces to bring them down

Unlikely. Get this: his opponent in the runoff is not a Republican. Or even another Democrat. His opponent is a Democratic Socialist of America. So unless somebody else wins as a write in, Wheeler might be as good as they get lol.

I don't see anything else.

Rhode Island. Trump had about as big of a vote share there as he did in Oregon.

 

[mindlessobserver]

California is not flipping. It is literally the bluest state in the country. While technically Hawaii has a higher percentage of voters, it could turn red if Asian American become Republican-leaning again and whites become more conservative and there are less voters there. That's already a hard task.

Now imagine flipping California. That state's political alignment is like the night sky. Not only does the Hispanic plurality and the large Asian minority need to start becoming purple voters, you also have to change the culture of the cities to where Republicans can take control of it again. While Kamala Harris will certainly drive out more Republican voters, it will not close the gap enough to turn the state red. It will take decades of all-out efforts by the Republican party - which is weak in there - to turn the state back red. Frankly, Oregon has a better shot of turning red since at least the backlash to the Portland riots - including Wheeler's exceptional rejection of Trump's offer to help - will get quite a few complacent voters to show up.

I don't see a lot of pick up opportunities for Trump to be honest. Minnesota, sure. Nevada, Oregon, and Virginia, maybe. New Hampshire and Maine? Unlikely. I don't see anything else. He needs to focus more on keeping the states he has - especially Florida, Arizona, and Wisconsin - than anything. His best bet is to plant the seed for potential pickups in future elections for GOP like what Democrats do.

It's important to address this, but people who are hoping to flip states like Oregon, Washington, California, and New York need to do what has been done in the Midwest and gradually infiltrate left-wing states and cities. We cannot, and should not, expect solid blue states that score double digits to turn red on a dime. It took decades of efforts to flip states like Virginia and Colorado blue and the same goes for vice versa. Unfortunately, our country is increasingly becoming urbanized, and that plays into the favor of Democrats who have control of these cities. A Trump re-election is not time for complacency, but to start figuring out a plan for how Republicans can take the cities back to being purple or even red.

To do this, we need to focus on taking back the culture from the far left and providing more palatable alternatives that can stand up to any and all suppression it will face. That will take a lifetime of effort. Trump's re-election - much as I respect the man - serves only to buy time before the inevitable next Democratic administration. Our fight doesn't end with a Trump victory but rather just begins. The big difference is that a Trump administration won't drive us underground for dissent.Definitely. Aside from the Arrowhead Region, what other swing regions are you looking at?

I also think we need to track states that will almost certainly not flip but could significantly swing to the opposite party. Texas will almost certainly stay red but it has been tracking blue in recent elections. Likewise, we saw a significant shift in the Northeast towards Republicans but only Pennsylvania and the second congressional district of Maine flipped red. Unfortunately, I'm not optimistic on Trump making any pick ups aside from Minnesota and I am concerned he will lose ground in the Northeast even with all of the New York pandering he's done.

I will be shocked if Virginia does not turn fluorescent red this year. The only pro Democrat signage I am seeing is the odd BLM sign. What Northam and his cadre in Richmond have done has absolutely infuriated the State. But like all Democrats they seem completely oblivious. Except for Levar Stoney in Richmond. That opportunistic asshole is a fucker but he's not stupid. He sees which way the wind is actually blowing and ANTIFA has absolutely no joy in the State Capital these past few weeks. Not that it will save him or the Democratic Party machine that has run the city for the last half century. If Virginia is a microcosm for former blue States on the verge of flipping, then the Dems are in serious trouble.

 

[Harvey Danger]

Definitely. Aside from the Arrowhead Region, what other swing regions are you looking at?

South Florida - everyone's telling stories about Latinos vs Cubans, 3rd generation Hispanic kids, etc. I want to see how the trend plays out in the most well-defined bastion of non-Mexican Latinos.

Arlington/Richmond Virginia - these are the spots turning VA blue. But they just had a terrible year with the state legislature. I want to see if it cracks the blue trend.

Portland and Seattle - obvious reasons. Will local anger at local Democrats translate into national voting? Not a flip, but a lesser shade of blue? If not, then Oregon isn't turning red, and Seattle is going to start bleeding talent.

Minneapolis - same as above, except in a state I expect the GOP to be competitive in.

Southeast Michigan - Detroit and suburbs were the big driver of votes for Hillary, Trump won most of the rest of the state. If Biden keeps Hillary's numbers in that region, then even if Trump wins the whole state, that keeps MI as a light blue state in my book unless 2024 candidates replicate his MAGA agenda.

Watching Maine to see if it splits again, and NYC to see if the city actually drained away its votes. I think the big problem with this analysis is going to be where those NYC refugees fled to. I'm hearing anecdotes of them winding up in FL and TX, which is good for those states economically, but you can bet those damn yanks are keeping their blue politics.

 

[Cubanodun]

Democratic Socialist

I hate those two words together , is just communism with a new paint

 

[GuntPunt]

I will be shocked if Virginia does not turn fluorescent red this year. The only pro Democrat signage I am seeing is the odd BLM sign. What Northam and his cadre in Richmond have done has absolutely infuriated the State. But like all Democrats they seem completely oblivious. Except for Levar Stoney in Richmond. That opportunistic asshole is a fucker but he's not stupid. He sees which way the wind is actually blowing and ANTIFA has absolutely no joy in the State Capital these past few weeks. Not that it will save him or the Democratic Party machine that has run the city for the last half century. If Virginia is a microcosm for former blue States on the verge of flipping, then the Dems are in serious trouble.

Problem with Virginia is like with Oregon and Illinois. The Fairfax county is like Chicago and Portland where they drag the state blue despite the rest of the state is blood red. If they make a play that flips Virginia's ultra blue DC suburbs, then an electoral landslide that takes him to around 350+ electoral votes is the worst he could do.

 

[Salubrious]

Unlikely. Get this: his opponent in the runoff is not a Republican. Or even another Democrat. His opponent is a Democratic Socialist of America. So unless somebody else wins as a write in, Wheeler might be as good as they get lol.

The amount of elections I read about where every option is shitty is kind of amazing. It's like actual good people either don't get into politics or quickly decide "fuck it" and leave.

South Florida - everyone's telling stories about Latinos vs Cubans, 3rd generation Hispanic kids, etc. I want to see how the trend plays out in the most well-defined bastion of non-Mexican Latinos.

I'll take the rainbows, but if Trump wins Florida then Biden has no chance. Biden would have to basically win at least five of the six of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Virginia.

 

[mindlessobserver]

The amount of elections I read about where every option is shitty is kind of amazing. It's like actual good people either don't get into politics or quickly decide "fuck it" and leave.





I'll take the rainbows, but if Trump wins Florida then Biden has no chance. Biden would have to basically win at least four of the five of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and Ohio I think.

Assuming he does not lose Virginia and New York. California and the Pacific Northwest are the big ask in this election cycle. The Democrats are in serious trouble everywhere except the Left Coast and Delaware. And Delaware does not count.

 

[Kane Lives]

The amount of elections I read about where every option is shitty is kind of amazing. It's like actual good people either don't get into politics or quickly decide "fuck it" and leave.

I mean, you have to be some sort of asshole to be actively involved in politics to begin with. It's a truism since democracy was invented, and will continue to be true.

The people you want to hold power are almost always the ones who dislike the responsibility, with a few select exceptions.

 

[Salubrious]

Assuming he does not lose Virginia and New York. California and the Pacific Northwest are the big ask in this election cycle. The Democrats are in serious trouble everywhere except the Left Coast and Delaware. And Delaware does not count.

I did update it to five of six because I agree that Virginia is in play.

Oregon is definitely in play. Wheeler caved to the protestors, which ironically is biting him in the ass tonight anyway.

New York and California won't flip, but I do see them becoming a lighter shade. NY especially going to Biden only 54-41 or something wouldn't shock me. That would be a 10 point swing after going to Hillary 59-36.

 

[Syaoran Li]

The real crown jewel remains California though. That State has been taken for granted by the Democrats for decades now and it is showing for it. Lots of Republican voters historically dont even bother, but with how agitated things are right now it may very well be in play. If Minnesota is turning red, pretty much anything that is not Oregon and Washington could be fair game. Like New York too since we are on the subject.

We need a decisive victory here to avert social catastrophe. Biden certainly wont deliver it. If he wins it will be by a frighteningly narrow margin. Only trump seems to have the energy behind him to actually ram home a landslide necessary to establish his mandate beyond all doubt. Holding his previous wins and adding Minnesota, New York and California to them would do that.

We can dream.

California's never going red. Minnesota will likely go red while Virginia and Nevada are in play, as is Oregon to a lesser extent.

I think New York might go purple in the 2020's but I still think the DNC will keep New York this year unless Clown World fully loops around and we get a freak miracle where upstate New York and just enough pissed off votes in Long Island and the Five Boroughs show up for a massive turnout while aligning with an extremely low turnout for the lefties in Manhattan and Brooklyn.

As long as Trump can keep Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan plus Minnesota in addition to the red and reddish-purple states. I think he will win. If he retains Pennsylvania in addition to all the other states he won in 2016 plus Minnesota, it will be a major win. We can't get slack and we must vote no matter what though.

I don't want overconfidence to cause a reverse of 2016.

I will be shocked if Virginia does not turn fluorescent red this year. The only pro Democrat signage I am seeing is the odd BLM sign. What Northam and his cadre in Richmond have done has absolutely infuriated the State. But like all Democrats they seem completely oblivious. Except for Levar Stoney in Richmond. That opportunistic asshole is a fucker but he's not stupid. He sees which way the wind is actually blowing and ANTIFA has absolutely no joy in the State Capital these past few weeks. Not that it will save him or the Democratic Party machine that has run the city for the last half century. If Virginia is a microcosm for former blue States on the verge of flipping, then the Dems are in serious trouble.

Again, the issue is whether or not NoVA will still show up en masse to keep the state blue since Virginia is very much a newly minted blue state and was blood red as recently as the mid 2000's

I think the City of Richmond will stay blue but will have a low turnout while Chesterfield County and maybe Henrico County can go red as a response to Northam and the Antifa riots in Richmond

If Chesterfield and Henrico Counties go red in addition to the majority of the counties west of the Fall Line, I think Virginia will go red unless we get an unusually high turnout in the college towns and Northern Virginia

 

[Shroom King]

Or that they're saying they'll immediately enact a nationwide mask mandate the second after they take power in late January 2021 and it's still only August 2020. "God willing, it won't be forever", sure whatever, Kamela. You'd drag it on forever just to boss the plebs around and micromanage everyone's lives to death.

And with the riots going on for 3 months, and the DNC's refusal to tell the mayors and governors to dial it back, people are quickly realizing that when Democrats talk about lockdowns, they mean lockdowns for normal people. Their pet revolutionaries in Burn Loot Murder will be allowed to operate with impunity.

 

[A Logging Company]

Here is my current prediction

May seem , but let me explain my reasoning

• Conservatives and die hard GOP types who either voted for someone else or abstained from voting due to how distasteful they found Trump, are used to seeing Trump as the President and the face of the Republican Party, and will vote accordingly. Also the full retard path the DNC has been on has not made inroads with these types.
• No spoilers for Trump this year, both of which fucked him over hard in the Southwest.
  • Without former Governor of New Mexico Gary Johnson running under the Libertarian Party, New Mexico would have been a potential swing state. Both him and Hilary did sub 50% in New Mexico.
  • McMullen's campaign in Mormon heavy mountain states probably depreciated GOP numbers. Also he got nearly 2% in MN surprisingly, which only makes a MN flip that much more likely
• Kanye maybe just enough of a spoiler to thwart Biden in states like MI and PA [not even on the ballot, but has full ballot access in MN, which has a history for voting for eccentric entertainers]. Its a way for disaffected black people to say fuck you to the DNC, guilt free of having voted Republican. And Kanye is so beloved in Chicago, I could see him potentially spoiling the state in favor of Trump, but I'm not confident enough to state a prediction on it-especially given the state's corruption I thought he had ballot access in IL, was wrong. Full map of where Kanye is actually listed on the ballot or is awaiting approval..
• Rustbelt stays red due to pre-COVID economic improvements and riots, with MN giving in
• Other than Gary and Mormon man out of the picture, the Southwest goes red up due to extra low Hispanic turnout due to BLM, and DNC messaging only appealing to blacks and liberal whites.
• While Trump wants to flip his home state of NY, I just don't see a full on victory possible.
• I do see the more moderate New England states of N.H. and Maine flipping (or in Maine's case half flipping) due to how close those two were last time, with the incumbent advantage being enough to push Trump over the edge.

I think the big problem with this analysis is going to be where those NYC refugees fled to. I'm hearing anecdotes of them winding up in FL and TX, which is good for those states economically, but you can bet those damn yanks are keeping their blue politics.

They probably are still registered to vote in NY, or are residents and already registered to vote where they fled to (taxes and all).

 

[heyitsmike]

A lot of people are worried about Arizona, but I think we'll be okay. The youth vote out there is so fired up they're liable to spontaneously combust.

 

[mindlessobserver]

A lot of people are worried about Arizona, but I think we'll be okay. The youth vote out there is so fired up they're liable to spontaneously combust.
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Honestly good life advice this

 

[King Daddy Telomerase]

Most polls aren't taking into account 3rd party, which I really think is going to be a notable change from '16 now. The majority of the Johnson vote was R and will be smaller in '20, Jorgenson is hard BLM (wtf has happened to libertarians btw?). Kanye can negate some troll/jogger votes in MN and AZ, less of the McMullin Stop Drumpf effect. It may only be like 1%, but that may be enough.

 

[Dysnomia]

I got one of those calls from the Democratic something or other. I never got one of those before. Are they calling a lot of people or did I just get picked at random? I just didn't feel like talking. No real opinions on the election honestly. I didn't even believe these calls were for real until I got one.

I am not registered Democrat. I am third party. I guess it was because of my voting history.

 

[SmugAutist]

Jorgenson is hard BLM (wtf has happened to libertarians btw?).

What happened was that libertarian minded-conservatives figured out in 2008 what the Justice Dems figured in 2016, that being that it was a lot more effective to run in and eventually overtake one of the two major parties than to go 3rd party. The Libertarian party did have conservatives at one point, but when they started to see the increasing success of Ron Paul running as a Republican. Even if he didn't win, there was an evident desire for a candidate like that since conservatives were already angry at the Republicans by 2008 and especially after 2012 since their traditionalist neo-con faggotry of losing with dignity was getting them nowhere. That movement of younger, more libertarian minded conservatives essentially left the Libertarian party once Trump gained attention.

TLDR; the libertarians decided to run their candidates as Republicans while the Libertarian Party became a meme party about smoking weed and being a complete autistic fag.