I have no idea where people are getting poll numbers that New Hampshire is a close race. I know that Realclearpolitics is probably rigging the actual results and they're probably closer than we think, but last time I checked, Biden was leading in near double digit numbers. Things can change but it will be really difficult for Trump to close the gap unless people have evidence on hand for a potential flip. It could flip in the future if the state becomes more conservative but right now I'm saying no. Maine at-large and 2nd congressional district could swing hard enough to where one or both of them flips red but I also remain doubtful on this. It's a potential red state, just not right now. Virginia only has a chance because of Northam being an authoritarian who let Richmond be battered under his watch but I think that will be memory holed enough to where it stays blue.
Oregon is in the picture simply because of how badly tarnished Portland is. Between the daily riots, a far-right Trump supporter named Aaron Danielson being shot to death likely from an Antifa member, and Ted Wheeler proving how much of a unlikable cuck he is that people are outright demanding he resign and we have a recipe for a potential double digit swing. It will probably stay blue for this election, but there is a good chance that it will galvanize the conservatives into voting and making Portland a little lighter shade of blue. If that happens, we may see it turn red by 2028. Keep an eye on it, especially if it halves the gap of the 2016 outcome and we see state and local Republicans take power. Speaking of, not one poll has come out yet RealClearPolitics put it as leaning blue just based on previous performances. I wouldn't be shocked if internal polling are indicate a close race and the Democrats don't want it out due to fear of energizing the Republicans if they smell and opportunity to take power.
Not much to say about Ohio really. It's
possible, but nothing indicates (Democratic-biased polls aside) that it will flip blue or even trend that way. Its days of being a swing state is over. Iowa will likely stay red too since it would require practically a double digit shift back to blue but who knows, farmers are pissed and that might change things. Georgia has a very loyal Democratic black voting base (even more than usual) to contrast the conservative white voters but if speculations of a 15%+ black voting Trump happens, it stays red. The fact Georgia and North Carolina are polling in favor of Trump means they're probably not flipping. Texas could flip but that requires a higher than expected Hispanic turnout and for the said ethnic group to not vote purpler. It will likely turn at least light blue this decade but I think it will stay for at least one more national election. Trump won Maine Congressional District 2 by double digits so while a massive shift to the left is possible, it's not likely in my books.
Now comes the fun part, the tossup states. Nebraska Congressional District 2 I suspect will turn blue just out of gut feelings given how urbanized it is. Nevada and Pennsylvania have higher numbers of registered Republican compared to 2016 so I can see them going either way. I lean blue on both although if I'll be fair, I would have given Trump a lower chance of flipping Pennsylvania in 2016 than now so we'll see. Nevada has barely had any polling for this election. What few favors Biden but I wonder if the lack of polling since January indicates if Democrats has the state locked up or they're concerned about revealing unfavorable results that indicates the state might be in play.
Even though Trump is polling decently in Michigan, I'm not convinced it will stay red. The fact a Democratic mayor managed to put to stop to the riots means Republicans do not have the narrative that Mike Duggan is encouraging the riots when its not on their front door. Great for the city as it shows that Democrat leaders are not made equal when it comes to awfulness, but bad for Trump when the coronavirus took away his best re-election pitch, the economy. Whitmer might be an awful governor, but I honestly think Trump's chances of keeping Michigan relies on if he can get more of the black votes that can turn Detroit and other heavily black populated cities a lighter shade of blue to compensate for loss of Rust Belt support. If he does not, Michigan will remain a light blue state for the future even if Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota all become light red. I think his chances are worse than in 2016 but it will also be close either way. 30-70 for Trump.
I've said before that Minnesota has a good shot of turning red and with six Iron Range mayors supporting Trump in what are historically Democratic regions, it has the best shot of flipping red of all tossup states. The riots also have the potential to benefit Trump as it is possible Minneapolis and St. Paul turn purpler in response to the riots damaging their economy. If that happens, not only will Minnesota turn red but the Republicans likely also have a reliable state for future elections. 70-30 for Trump.
The Kenosha riot and the backlash to Kyle's arrest makes me think that even if the blue collar workers are disappointed with the economy that they will show up to vote for Trump just because they do not want this shit on their backdoor. Kenosha is also close to Milwaukee which might turn the city a lighter shade of blue. If Trump wins and does so by a larger margin than last election, Wisconsin might also turn light red.
Florida gets a slight boost for Trump because of
Maximo Alvarez's speech - a Cuban - speaking out against Communism and for his love of America to tens of millions of people. While a swing block now, Obama's farce of an idea to open up with Cuba swung Floridan Cuban voters to Trump. Trump knows the Cuban people are crucial to his victory and Floridian Hispanics vote purpler than the rest of the country. Time remains to be seen if Trump can keep this state but I honestly believe if he loses this, he loses the whole election since Pennsylvania and Michigan are big asks as is. If he can receive 15%+ of the black vote though, then Florida remains a light red state for the future. Right now, I'm feeling better about its chances than I did last month.
The real tipping point state I'd say is Arizona. Unlike Florida, it does not have a Hispanic ethnicity that are swing voters and Trump won the state by less than 4%. While it seems like a lot at first, it was a massive swing from Romney winning by over 9%. Trump's job will be to essentially maintain what is left of his lead and he needs a higher percentage of non-Cuban Hispanics to win Arizona. Still, there are literally no indication either way of either Trump or Biden winning so this will be a nail biter. Don't be surprised if Arizona turns out to be 2000's Florida where it takes weeks just to get the final result, possibly even a recount. 50/50 either way and IMO, the state that decides America's path for decades.
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