I'll say this: there was a lot of "Trump BAD" in 2016, but to be fair, there were a lot of people that were genuinely excited to see a woman become president. Regardless of what you think about Hillary, there were people out there voting FOR Hillary.
Nobody in 2020 is voting FOR Biden. That's why excitement, especially on the Democrat side, is way down.
On the Republican side, visible excitement is way down, but I believe that's due to people being more afraid to voice support for Trump publicly. Hell, the rioters are attacking people that give them full support if it's "not enough."
How many of the 60-odd million Trump voters from 2016 aren't voting for him this time? How many have TRANSITIONED to Biden? Both are probably in the margin of error.
Enthusiasm is way the fuck down because of social media suppression, and there's roving bands of violent communists across the country that will make your life difficult throgh doxxing fuckery and try to kill you irl for supporting the incumbent president.
None of these people have been thoroughly convinced 'wow, Orange man IS bad!', they've gone into hiding if anything. Meanwhile of the 2016 Hillary voters, I'd say at least 3/4 of them have bought into the 'Evil Cheeto Hitler' rhetoric, but among them actually voting for Biden is a pretty sickening thought.
If Biden does win, it'll be the most apathetic win of all time, because that middle which carries him in numerous vital states will have to be so low information that they can't establish causality between the Democratic Party and the last 3 months of chaos
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Another thought re Quiet Kamala. All Mike Pence has to do in their debate is whip out an iPad from his inside suit pocket and play that bit where Tulsi roasts her record. Seriously, the torrent of abuse Tulsi got, calling her a Russian puppet et al, was impotent rage from twitter, but honestly no Russian stooge could possibly do a better job of ruining Kamala than what Tulsi did in the space of what? 20 seconds?
Pence should either play that clip at max volume or very blatantly recite it word for word, and watch Kamala totally seethe that she's been held accountable for these actions.