2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

[Meat Target]

Maybe this is being super optimistic and not knowing America as well as I think I do, but I can see Trump winning big. As it not even close. I say that based on my experience with the 2019 UK snap election. People were fucking sick and tired of being bullshitted around by that point. The working class were tired of being bullied and shat on by politicians for making the wrong decision and come election time it showed. We had places that only ever voted Labour since their creation flipping. Places that for 50-60 years went red flipped. I think we can see something similar in the US. People underestimate when the average person becomes sick and tired of shit. Riots, being locked at home, all this bullshit with BLM being shoved into everywhere, being told you are not worth a damn because of the colour of your skin, being told that rioting is ok and not supporting it makes you the villain. I think it's reaching it's boiling point and it's going to blow

I'm sick of it, my apolitical parents are sick of it to the point they bitch about BLM and Coronavirus on calls with me, and they don't live in the place where it's at it's peak - the USA. Imagine being the average working class person (not twitter, not California) and this is what you have to deal with every day. On one hand, you have the guy in power for the last 4 years, who hasn't destroyed the country, shouting "law and order" and calling himself the people's president, on the other hand, you have this barely sentient fool with a corrupt ex cop for a replacement who's party openly supports all this shit and who can't be bothered to properly campaign. I think people are going to be surprised this year with how much Trump wins. Maybe I'm putting too much faith in the American electorate to vote for the right guy, but I think they will.

I'm cautiously optimistic that Trump can win. Voters are hopefully not going to forget how everything was going swimmingly before the Pinko Pox hit; Trump's economy didn't die, it was killed by the lockdowns.

And while the almost 200k dead from the Rona is a national tragedy that should not be sugercoated, and very much something that will hurt Trump in the polls, what exactly was Trump *supposed* to do about it? The Dems called him racist for wanting to implement travel bans from China. Even if Trump had ordered a nationwide lockdown/mask order/contact tracing/whatever, they'd freak about about him being a dictator for that. They never say what Trump should have done, it's just Orange Man Bad.

And then the rioting, looting, murdering, and mass historical revisionism started over one dead druggie porn star, all of which was condoned, at least implicitly, by the Dems and their thralls.

All the while, the media cannot go a single 24 hours without lying or fucking up their own credibility.

I hope Mr. and Mrs. America see reason and punish Dems for their lies and fecklessness.

 

[Kikkoman]

I posted before about the Request for Absentee Ballot that I received from a non-profit org. I checked over the enclosures and did a search for the org, which had a bare-bones website with no information on the leaders or political stance. A bit more digging brought me to a site that gives non-partisan information on these orgs, and this one, while not pro-Dem, was 100% anti-Repub. I went to the state's Election Commission site, and they indeed listed that company as one that would possibly sending out these requests. But no hotlink or any other info. I got pissed and emailed them and let them know that by listing that org, they were essentially endorsing them without giving any other information about them. They of course denied that they were endorsing, and maybe they weren't EXPLICITLY but being listed on their website was enough for me.

Shit like that really grinds my gears. At least they know that I know and that we're not all brain-dead mouth-breathers out here.

"The Center for Voter Information"? They sent me three of them.

 

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[CrippleThreat]

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Trump just has to not say/do anything crazy, and make the "red mirage" real.

 

[Gustav Schuchardt]

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That's a very encouraging graph.

At some point, you just have to hope that ordinary voters are smart enough to do the right thing despite the media bombarding them with propaganda designed to stop that.

 

[Someone Awful]

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I said Trump would surpass Biden in betting odds this month. I just didn't expect it to come this soon. Like tomorrow soon.

Reminder that betting odds were always in favor of Hillary Clinton in 2016. Biden has never been able to keep the gap as wide as that Clinton had over Trump. If betters aren't confident in a Biden victory despite the polls saying he's winning, what must the Biden campaign be thinking behind closed doors? They're also facing a real possibility that non-whites might vote Trump in larger numbers than last time (which was already a slight boost from 2012) and if that happens, he wins the election.

Election fraud aside, I am feeling a lot better about Trump's chances than I did a couple of months ago.

 

[GuntPunt]

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Betting odds are a strange indicator. They typically reflect polling and are usually not a good indicator of anything besides the "I'm so sure about the winner I'm putting money on it" type of person. Clinton was at 89% on Election Day in 2016. The story is why is it inverting now, when polling is still "Muh Biden +14 million" in some of these polls.

 

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Does Razorfist have a Tsundere Fandom in these threads like Styx does?

 

[Harvey Danger]

Betting odds are a strange indicator. They typically reflect polling and are usually not a good indicator of anything besides the "I'm so sure about the winner I'm putting money on it" type of person. Clinton was at 89% on Election Day in 2016. The story is why is it inverting now, when polling is still "Muh Biden +14 million" in some of these polls.

They used to be more accurate, back before everyone got obsessed with breaking down polls and understanding why they are garbage. So you'd see headline polls come out and look bad for one candidate, but the "insiders" who knew what to look at would bet based on their interpretation of the real numbers.

Now that bitching about poll weighting has become normie mainstream, I don't know how much secret knowledge the betting markets have any more. Maybe it's being moved by the people who are doing the secret internal polling, but it's equally likely it's just measuring the optimism of large numbers of supporters.

 

[General Disarray]

"The Center for Voter Information"? They sent me three of them.

Yep, that's the one!! The application was pre-printed with all my info on it. Very shady.

 

[Absolutego]

Does Razorfist have a Tsundere Fandom in these threads like Styx does?

The last thing this thread needs is more idiots plugging their Youtube pundit of preference.

 

[2021Murder]

No Democrat has conceded an election on the night of the election since 1988. They always drag it out for as long as is feasible unless it's obvious that they lost. I would say that even Hillary didn't show up to concede the election until the following day, but that bitch sent someone else out to do it and spent the last four years whining about it. I struggle to think of a better example of a poor loser than Hillary Rodham Clinton.

I still love the idea that Trump just made up a phone call where Hillary concedes and the media was so desperate for news that they ate it up. And Hilary and rhe rest of the campaign team was in such shit conditions by that point of the night that they didnt realize it until it was too late and already national news. It would be the perfect end to the stort especially after the pied piper strategy backfired on them

 

[break these cuffs]

Yep, that's the one!! The application was pre-printed with all my info on it. Very shady.

They couldn't even get my info right.

 

[King Daddy Telomerase]

Trump is at 45 job approval now on RCP, and that's with most recent polls having like 3-5% "no opinion"s. He's already at the mark now where an incumbent is likely safe, and that's not taking account electoral vote vs national poll advantage for Trump which should be at least 3% in 2020.

Dems are going to have to pull some crazy shenanigans again at this rate, and I'm expecting them too.

Polls are coming out today... which such useful information as from YouGov with D+15 weighting.

 

[GuntPunt]

Trump is at 45 job approval now on RCP, and that's with most recent polls having like 3-5% "no opinion"s. He's already at the mark now where an incumbent is likely safe, and that's not taking account electoral vote vs national poll advantage for Trump which should be at least 3% in 2020.

Dems are going to have to pull some crazy shenanigans again at this rate, and I'm expecting them too.

As much as "muh Youtube lolcow pundit" is being posted, the Raz0rfist video has a point. They are going to push this mail in ballot BS and collect votes until they win in states they can. Its why they are preparing this "red mirage" bullshit. "Oh Trump won in a landslide, but 3 weeks later we found 10 million votes in each swing state for Biden. No we aren't going to check it again. Why are you questioning the election, bigot?"

 

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The last thing this thread needs is more idiots plugging their Youtube pundit of preference.

... So that's a yes to the Tsundere fandom, then?

 

[Absolutego]

... So that's a yes to the Tsundere fandom, then?

I'm subbed to his channel, so hardly "tsundere", but being a fan of the guy doesn't stop me from realizing everyone dropping the latest hot take from their favorite e-celeb turns the thread into shit, fast.

 

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I'm subbed to his channel, so hardly "tsundere", but being a fan of the guy doesn't stop me from realizing everyone dropping the latest hot take from their favorite e-celeb turns the thread into shit, fast.

Think it was less of a hot take and more of a "hey, did you know Arizona's Dems blatantly used Mail in Voting to steal an election in 2018 -- and are setting up the excuses needed for them to do it nationally in November" but ... k

 

[Gustav Schuchardt]

I'm not really convinced by Nate Silver in general but this Tweet seems very dubious. The reason the electoral college tends to beneft Trump over the Democrats is that the Democrats do well in cities with a large population and where non citizens can get away with voting. In which case trying to relate the popular vote to the electoral college vote seems very dubious - it's based on the idea that the popular vote is somehow the only true measure of public opinion and the electoral college is a distorted version of this.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301190941110341632
https://archive.vn/wip/Hdlwi

Actually, if you look at 2016 Clinton won the cities but Trump won everything else

https://www.inverse.com/article/25635-map-remakes-us-trumpland-clinton-archipelago

The electoral college was specifically designed so that it wasn't possible for voters from heavily populated coastal states to monopolize the presidency. What Silver's figures are really saying is that in order to win the electoral college the Democrats need to have such a large swing to them that rather than winning an archipelago they end up with Bidenland and the Trump Archipelago.

Incidentally, it occurs to me that US political parties are actually aptly named. The Democrats believe in a democracy where if you get the most votes, you can do anything. The Republicans believe in a representative Republic that is designed to protect the rights of minorities from a rapacious majority and also includes mechanisms like the electoral college to stop the majority of the country from being ruled from those heavily populated coastal states. That's because the people who designed the country were smart enough to work out that that was unsustainable.

And of course, many of the recent riots happened in parts of the Clinton Archipelago. Have the Democrats overestimated how strong their support is in these places? Quite a bit of it seems to be rather green in the map above, which means it is not electorally safe. Will it flip like some of the Red Wall constituencies did for Labour in 2019?

A bit like with Trump's victory in 2016 or with Brexit we will see great wailing and gnashing of teeth if Trump wins again and either wins the popular vote or increases his electoral college votes. Or if he loses the popular vote and wins the electoral college. The salt following Trump's first win completely dwarfed that following Brexit and I suspect a second Trump win, regardless of how it happens will produce even more. The media spent about a year telling people not to vote Trump the first time around and the same for Brexit. They've spent more than four years telling people not to vote Trump again. I imagine they'll be pretty pissed off if people ignore them again.

 

[King Daddy Telomerase]

I'm not really convinced by Nate Silver in general but this Tweet seems very dubious.

It is dubious. Breaking down polls and previous election data like Silver does with intelligent-sounding statistics is utter nonsense.

Of course, as many others note, Silver is basically a DNC surrogate:

"Bunch more national polls in, a pretty good batch for Biden. YouGov has Biden back up to +11 after having fallen to +6 post-RNC IBD/TIPP (live caller) has Biden +8 (RV) Rasmussen has Biden +4 which is more like 7/8 with their house effect."

Sure, discredit Rasmussen's "house effect", but praise YouGov's D+15 quality poll.