2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

[Moufang Loop]

I'm not really convinced by Nate Silver in general but this Tweet seems very dubious.

I've never understood why Silver gets so much press and accolades. I believe he gained notoriety because he predicted the 2008 election result in every state, however that's not really that great of an achievement. And like so many other so called experts he showed his incompetence in 2016 by predicting a Clinton victory.

The guy literally has a high school education level of statistics and is now only 2 for 3 in predicting presidential elections. Essentially anyone can become an "expert" if you simply say what the elites want you to say and justify it by saying muh numbers and muh polling. I wish someone who actually has an advanced knowledge of statistics would interview that faggot so everyone can see how much of a fraud he is.

 

[heyitsmike]

Nancy Pelosi has given Trump so much ammunition this year it ain't even funny.

I guarantee the Trump campaign is working on an attack ad this very moment.
View attachment 1565071

Oof.

 

[Gustav Schuchardt]

It turns out if you remove CA, Hilary Clinton's popular vote win goes away

https://www.investors.com/politics/...pular-vote-win-came-entirely-from-california/
https://archive.vn/kvUdy

Popular vote total:
Trump: 62,958,211
Clinton: 65,818,318
_________________
Clinton: + 2.8 million

Popular vote total outside California:
Trump: 58,474,401
Clinton: 57,064,530
_________________
Trump: + 1.4 million

 

[Dr. Geronimo]

Don't know why the EC always gets debated. It's there specifically to make sure California and New York don't decide every election.

 

[Gustav Schuchardt]

Don't know why the EC always gets debated. It's there specifically to make sure California and New York don't decide every election.

It gets debated precisely because CA and NY are virtually one-party Democrat states the Democrats from those states want them to decide every election.

Come to think of it, journalism and Twitter are both probably dominated by Democrats from NY and CA too.

 

[Meat Target]

It's there specifically to make sure California and New York don't decide every election.

Libs not only want that, they also want the US Senate representation to be population-based like the House is, because they think only they are entitled to run the country (we don't need those dumb redneck farmers in Kansas, we have urban farms and Beyond Meat!). Never mind the fact that this is baked into Article 1 of the Constitution, and that they need an amendment, which requires a constitutional convention to even consider.

On top of that, they want to eliminate direct voting of senators by the state population, in favor of having the state government elect them.

All of this is because they're assmad about Cocaine Mitch stonewalling their retarded bills.

 

[Dr. Geronimo]

All of this is because they're assmad about Cocaine Mitch stonewalling their retarded bills.

In their defense I think it's bullshit that the house leader can just shut off debate. Even if the house brings a bill called the 'kill all whites act' it should still be debated because that's their job.

 

[Lodoss Warrior]

Oof.
View attachment 1567030

So, "I don't take responsibility," is bad for Trump, but acceptable for Pelosi.

 

[A Grey Cat]

If Trump wins BLM and every socialist pinko from New York to LA will explode and it could potentially be a mix of the Russian revolution mixed with the French one.

If old man joe wins those same idiots will think they have a free pass to do whatever they want like when Obama was elected

To quote alien vs predator whoever wins...we lose

 

[Ledian]

On top of that, they want to eliminate direct voting of senators by the state population, in favor of having the state government elect them.

All of this is because they're assmad about Cocaine Mitch stonewalling their retarded bills.

That's actually how it used to be, the current system for electing Senators is thanks to the 17th Amendment, so it's not totally wrong to want that repealed. At the same time however, the motivation to rescind such an amendment at this time is purely partisan not out of some love for federalism.

 

[Honest Coyote]

If Trump wins BLM and every socialist pinko from New York to LA will explode and it could potentially be a mix of the Russian revolution mixed with the French one.

If old man joe wins those same idiots will think they have a free pass to do whatever they want like when Obama was elected

To quote alien vs predator whoever wins...we lose

Hardly. Both the French and the Russian revolutions were against the nobility. These riots are our decadent over-privileged would be gentry slumming it with the criminal underclass for kicks and free stuff. Nobody but the unemployed and wealthy could afford to scream at cops all night for almost a hundred days.

These are the failed scions of the rich - mommy spends all day getting pampered, daddy works all day and doesn't come home until he's fucked his secretary, nanny abuela is terrified of being deported and has to coddle everyone. Then the kid is old enough, say 13, to be sent off to private boarding school and get pampered all the way to a glorified babysitting college, like SCAD. I have family in Savannah, these people are 100% the same.

What'll happen if Trump wins is they'll continue throwing a temper tantrum in the big cities, and when they try anything outside of them, a big-potbelly sheriff with a southern drawl will magically manifest from the ether behind them, arrest them, and impound everything they have to make up for covid budget shortfalls. They'll cry police brutality, discover the aesop of "The Boy who Cried Wolf", and promptly forget it while daddy decides the secretary's bastard by him makes a better hier. He'll divorce mommy (who turns from diamonds to wine), try and buy the bastard's affection (spoiler: 18 years of neglect can't be fixed with a check), and shuffle his wedlock child to some new babysitting program for adults. And everyone lives miserably on, until they die alone.

 

[StarkRavingMad]

If Trump wins BLM and every socialist pinko from New York to LA will explode and it could potentially be a mix of the Russian revolution mixed with the French one.

If old man joe wins those same idiots will think they have a free pass to do whatever they want like when Obama was elected

To quote alien vs predator whoever wins...we lose

BLM and AntiFa are domestic terrorists. If their candidate wins, then they get what they want. America will have catered to their demands, and the message will be clear that they get the pass to do what they want.

I will crawl over broken glass to vote for Trump in November ... Because I don't negotiate with terrorists. We need a President that doesn't negotiate with terrorists as well, no matter how fucking bad the violence will be when he wins.

It's not a lose-lose. It's a must-win situation for Trump and for any sane person.

 

[Salubrious]

I mean, the problem with all of Nate Silver's analysis is the concept of "garbage in, garbage out."

After the polls were SO WRONG in 2016, how can you trust them?

But the problem with an intellectual like Silver is that I think in the back of his mind he "knows" that, but polls are the only thing that's "impartial", so he rolls with it.

Look, I can understand if I've been living in a Kiwifarms/Conservative bubble. But I cannot believe for a moment that you can look at these polls that say Biden +8, look around at damn near ANY other information of people being pissed off at these riots, and think that Biden has that big a lead.

I'm voting for Trump, because I'm not taking any chances, but I think Trump is firmly in control right now, even with the popular vote.

 

[heyitsmike]

I mean, the problem with all of Nate Silver's analysis is the concept of "garbage in, garbage out."

After the polls were SO WRONG in 2016, how can you trust them?

But the problem with an intellectual like Silver is that I think in the back of his mind he "knows" that, but polls are the only thing that's "impartial", so he rolls with it.

Look, I can understand if I've been living in a Kiwifarms/Conservative bubble. But I cannot believe for a moment that you can look at these polls that say Biden +8, look around at damn near ANY other information of people being pissed off at these riots, and think that Biden has that big a lead.

One of his latest tweets is a retweet of someone asking "What the hell are the betting markets thinking?"

They're thinking Biden has full blown dementia and that Trump will expose him in the debates. He's been told this in the comments countless times but it still doesn't get through that thick skull of his.

He is totally and completely incapable of understanding information that does not come in a numerical form.

 

[King Daddy Telomerase]

One of his latest tweets is a retweet of someone asking "What the hell are the betting markets thinking?"

They're thinking Biden has full blown dementia and that Trump will expose him in the debates. He's been told this in the comments countless times but it still doesn't get through that thick skull of his.

He is totally and completely incapable of understanding information that does not come in a numerical form.

I think Silver's argument would be that debates won't change the numbers much, and I would agree with him. Unless Biden massively fucks up like nothing we've ever seen, I assume they won't change significantly.

Silver is basically the equivalent of a Democrat-biased "election expert" Youtuber. He's just taking the data and spinning it to how he wants his audience and employers want to interpret it. Except many people take him as gospel for who knows why. Wow, he got 49 states or whatever correct in 2008, who didn't.

 

[DrearyDoomguy]

They're thinking Biden has full blown dementia and that Trump will expose him in the debates. He's been told this in the comments countless times but it still doesn't get through that thick skull of his.

I honestly don't think the debates are necessarily going to go that way. Trump is not that good at one-on-one debates, it's entirely possible that they rehearse Biden enough for him to get some good one liners in and gain more in the short run than Trump does from the debates. The Trump-Clinton debates were certainly a mixed bag. It's hard to say for sure which way the debates will go, especially with the bar being set so low that all Biden has to do is go on stage and recite a coherent complete sentence to exceed expectations.

 

[Salubrious]

I think Silver's argument would be that debates won't change the numbers much, and I would agree with him. Unless Biden massively fucks up like nothing we've ever seen, I assume they won't change significantly.

Silver is basically the equivalent of a Democrat-biased "election expert" Youtuber. He's just taking the data and spinning it to how he wants his audience and employers want to interpret it. Except many people take him as gospel for who knows why. Wow, he got 49 states or whatever correct in 2008, who didn't.

It reminds me of this article, where a guy (David Shor) worked as the Democrat data analyst, tweeted out that violent protests would benefit the Republicans, and was basically fired for "racism."

They won't look at data that they think is "biased", so they are being wilfully ignorant.

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/progressphiles-big-sister-democrats-david-shor/

 

[GuntPunt]

Confident in saying, they are hiding Biden because he can't do anything properly without a telepromter. He is going to be destroyed if the debates happen.

One of his latest tweets is a retweet of someone asking "What the hell are the betting markets thinking?"

They're thinking Biden has full blown dementia and that Trump will expose him in the debates. He's been told this in the comments countless times but it still doesn't get through that thick skull of his.

He is totally and completely incapable of understanding information that does not come in a numerical form.

If ANY poll says Florida: Candidate +3 or higher, its complete bullshit.

On that Silver point, muh Youtube Pundit said that they are completely out of the loop of internal polling. That's why while the Democrats were shitting themselves, Silver and his 538 crew were confused.

 

[DrearyDoomguy]

Confident in saying, they are hiding Biden because he can't do anything properly without a telepromter. He is going to be destroyed if the debates happen.

He's not good at speaking without a prompter, but sufficient rehearsal likely could be an effective substitute for that. Keep in mind, he wasn't originally going to do these pressers period. He only started coming out of his basement after (A) Trump taunted him about not leaving the his cave for another 10 days and (B) presumably less than stellar internal polling. He was clearly not prepared for the possibility of not being able to just campaign from his basement, much less giving answers off the cuff. The debates have a set time and place, giving him much more opportunity to drill in talking points. I still don't know for sure that it'll be enough, but Hillary certainly was able to pull off better performances than expected, at least in the first and third debates.

Regarding Silver, I still think he is an excellent number cruncher and when he sticks to the numbers he really shines. The problem is he also fancies himself a pundit, and when he does that he's usually WAY the fuck off the mark.

 

[Reverend]

Calling it now, Trump steals enough of the black vote to make it matter.

This song better go James Holden level of nuclear fire around the internets