Here's a quick rundown on where the race stands, with the assumption that the 'competitive' states (I use that loosely) are: Georgia, Texas, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia.
Georgia: While Stacy Abrams came close in 2018 thanks to being particularly good at supercharging turnout in the Atlanta metro area, there still isn't enough to overcome the Republican strength in the rest of the state. Monmouth is a pollster that has consistently overestimated Dem performance, and they even had Trump up in Georgia back in late July, when things were worse for Trump than they are now. There are some pollsters that have Biden up in this state but they're ones like Morning Consult which changed their methodology some time in 2019 that made them one of the most favorable pollsters for Trump in terms of gauging approval to one of the most unfavorable (that is, they went from being more favorable than other pollsters to being less favorable, which is an indication that it's not Trump's approval but their technique). Trafalgar underestimated Kemp in 2018 but was right on the money in Georgia in 2016, and they have Trump pretty close to the magic number of 50%, so while this state is getting bluer, we can assume it'll go Trump unless Biden is already winning by a decent amount. Worry about this state in 2024 and 2028.
Texas: Everything that was said about Georgia can be said about this state, just change 'Stacy Abrams' to Beto O'Cuck. Population growth in the Houston area, the Dallas area, the Austin area, etc is making the state bluer, but again - this year is not its year unless Biden is already winning by a lot. Worry about it in 2024 and 2028. Enough recent polls have Trump up, so just assume he has this in the bag.
Iowa: Opposite of Georgia and Texas. It's particularly 'swingy' in that it has lots of voters who are more prone to changing their minds than the average American voter (it went from voting for Obama by a lot to voting for Trump by a lot). Recent polls from pollsters that have understimated Trump and GOP in the past few years have Trump up in this state. Assume he has this in the bag.
Ohio: Everything said about Iowa applies to this state. This isn't 2004 where Kerry and Bush tried hard for this state because it was competitive for both sides. This is pretty much solid for Trump now.
North Carolina: There are certain areas in the state that has population trends that favor Democrats, but in 2016 it was mainly cancelled out by the fact that areas in the rest of the state voted for Trump even more than they did for Romney. Trump is improving in polling compared to a couple months ago, even Dem favored polls like that shitty Britbong pollster Redfield&Wilton had Trump up a couple weeks ago.
Florida: This is "Trump's home state" now, though that doesn't mean much. Keep in mind that in 2018, polling for Florida was laughably bad in favor of Democrats. It's a tough state to poll given its size, conflicting population trends, distinction between different groups of hispanics (for instance, you have to be careful about making sure to group Cubans and other hispanics separately, otherwise you'll have a skewed idea of how well one is doing with hispanics in this state). There are older voters moving here every year. Trafalgar was decent in the state in 2018, and in late June/early July they had it as a tie, which means that Trump is ahead right now given that things have improved for Trump since that part of the year.
---
^for every state above this line, you can pretty much assume it'd go for Trump if the 'election were today'. It's the states below that are a bit more spurious
Arizona: Ex-Mormon MILF Kyrsten Sinema won this state in 2018, but Joe Biden is no Kyrsten Sinema. Polling here has been ticking upwards for Trump. In 2018 polling was better for Dems earlier on and got better for Republicans as time went on despite Sinema winning. Difference is, Biden is no Sinema and Trump is no McSally.
Michigan: In 2018, despite not having nearly as much funding as Beto O'Rourke, John James(R) pulled off a respectable loss against Debbie Stabenow(D). This shows the state has undeniably trended Republican since the 2000s.
Stabenow wins by 16 in 2006:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_United_States_Senate_election_in_Michigan
Stabenow wins by 21 in 2012:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_Senate_election_in_Michigan
Stabenow wins by only 6 in 2018:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_Senate_election_in_Michigan
keep in mind that incumbents like Stabenow who haven't gone openly radical have some crossover appeal to people who voted Trump in 2016. Biden won't have the same inherent advantage that she had. Trafalgar was on point in Michigan in 2016 and 2018. Recently they have Trump and John James ahead in the state. I'd say it's 55%-45% chance that Trump wins if the 'election were today.'
Wisconsin: Much of what was said about Michigan applies here. Trump can do a bit better with the 'establishment Republican' types in the WOW counties around Milwaukee. He can continue to do better with white rurals in other parts of the state. I'd say it's a 52%-48% chance that Trump wins if it were today.
Pennsylvania: Despite touting himself as 'Scranton Joe' or 'the scrappy kid from Scranton,' there doesn't seem to be a huge 'home state' boost for Biden in this state.
en.wikipedia.org
The Morning/Call Muhlenberg College poll overestimated Hillary by quite a bit in 2016. This year, they have Biden doing a bit worse than Hillary was at around the same point in the year. Other pollsters in PA also have the same kind of thing going on. Of course, there is no *guarantee* that the error will be the same this year, but many of them flopped in 2018 as well in other states. In 2018, PA was a good year for the Dems but that was mainly because the GOP didn't even try very hard given that district lines were redrawn and the incumbent senator Bob Casey has a last name that's very good for voters in the state (his father was a well liked pro-life Democrat - Bob Casey managed to win over a decent chunk of Trump voters). Maybe a 50-50 chance it goes Trump if it were today.
Minnesota: Emerson polling has shown to be decent this year for the 2020 Dem primaries, and in the Massachusetts Senate primary a couple days ago, they mostly nailed the margins. They have Minnesota pretty close this year. Minneapolis riots and general Republican trends in the rural areas can contribute to ending the streak (voted Democrat every presidential election since Nixon won it in 1972).
maybe a 48%-52% chance Biden wins if it were today
New Hampshire: Not much attention in this state, but some of the same pollsters that overestimated Dems by a lot in this state only for Trump to almost win it, have Biden up by about the same amount.
48-52% chance Biden wins if it were today
---
(one of my classes starts in a few minutes so I gotta hold off on completing the rest, so here are a few quick blurbs
Maine: First district is pretty much safe Dem, second district is pretty much safe R.
Nevada: Trump can do better with hispanics this year, though it remains to be seen if he can overcome the shady universal mail expansion that the D governor did recently.
New Mexico: Similar to Nevada. Trump improvement with hispanics ironically makes this state easier than Colorado and Virginia.
Colorado: Lots of white liberals from Cali and other states have moved here which makes it pretty solid for the Dems. Let me put it this way, if Biden accidentally says the n-word, then Trump could win this state (but he wont be winning titanium Dem states like California).
Virginia: Similar to Colorado, but it's even worse given that establishment dems and RINOs on the government teat keep moving to NoVa.
The last three states are basically mostly safe for Biden. The Dems should assume they have this in the bag and focus on winning: Nevada(relatively easy for them to win) New Hampshire (not too hard) Minnesota(could be a surprise loss for the dems) Wisconsin Michigan Pennsylvania (doable but they really gotta try)
They don't need Florida North Carolina Ohio Iowa Georgia Texas to win. Might as well forget about those now if I were a dem (but I'd prefer they waste their time in those states)
